Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review.

Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties.

Efficacy of the Benznidazole+Posaconazole combination therapy in parasitemia reduction: An experimental murine model of acute Chagas.

INTRODUCTION: Benznidazole (BZL) and Nifurtimox (NFX) are the pharmacological treatment for acute phase Chagas Disease (CD); however, therapy resistance and residual mortality development remain important unresolved issues. Posaconazole (POS) has shown a trypanocidal effect in vivo and in vitro. Thus, this study aimed at comparing the T. Cruzi parasitic load-reducing effect of the combination of BZL+POS against that of monotherapy with either, during acute phase CD, in an experimental murine model. METHODS: Nineteen Wistar rats were randomly allocated to four groups and inoculated with the trypomastigotes of T. cruzi strain´s JChVcl1. The rats were administered anti-parasites from day 20-29 post-infection. The Pizzi and Brener method was used for parasitemia measurement. Longitudinal data analysis for the continuous outcome of repeated measures was performed using parasitemia as the outcome measured at days 20, 22, 24, 27, and 29 post-infection. RESULTS: All four groups had similar parasitic loads (p=0.143) prior to therapy initiation. Among the three treatment groups, the BZL+POS (n=5) group showed the highest mean parasitic load reduction (p=0.000) compared with the control group. Likewise, the BZL+POS group rats showed an earlier therapeutic effect and were the only ones without parasites in their myocardial samples. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of acute phase CD with BZL+POS was more efficacious at parasitemia and myocardial injury reduction, compared with monotherapy with either.

Efficacy of the Benznidazole+Posaconazole combination therapy in parasitemia reduction: An experimental murine model of acute Chagas

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Benznidazole (BZL) and Nifurtimox (NFX) are the pharmacological treatment for acute phase Chagas Disease (CD); however, therapy resistance and residual mortality development remain important unresolved issues. Posaconazole (POS) has shown a trypanocidal effect in vivo and in vitro. Thus, this study aimed at comparing the T. Cruzi parasitic load-reducing effect of the combination of BZL+POS against that of monotherapy with either, during acute phase CD, in an experimental murine model. METHODS Nineteen Wistar rats were randomly allocated to four groups and inoculated with the trypomastigotes of T. cruzi strain´s JChVcl1. The rats were administered anti-parasites from day 20-29 post-infection. The Pizzi and Brener method was used for parasitemia measurement. Longitudinal data analysis for the continuous outcome of repeated measures was performed using parasitemia as the outcome measured at days 20, 22, 24, 27, and 29 post-infection. RESULTS All four groups had similar parasitic loads (p=0.143) prior to therapy initiation. Among the three treatment groups, the BZL+POS (n=5) group showed the highest mean parasitic load reduction (p=0.000) compared with the control group. Likewise, the BZL+POS group rats showed an earlier therapeutic effect and were the only ones without parasites in their myocardial samples. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of acute phase CD with BZL+POS was more efficacious at parasitemia and myocardial injury reduction, compared with monotherapy with either.