Simulated impacts and potential cost effectiveness of Communities Putting Prevention to Work: Tobacco control interventions in 21 U.S. communities, 2010-2020.

In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded communities to implement policy, systems, and environmental (PSE) changes under the Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW) program to make it easier for people to make healthier choices to prevent chronic disease. Twenty-one of 50 funded communities implemented interventions intended to reduce tobacco use. To examine the potential cost-effectiveness of tobacco control changes implemented under CPPW from a healthcare system perspective, we compared program cost estimates with estimates of potential impacts. We used an existing simulation model, the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), to estimate the potential cumulative impact of CPPW tobacco interventions on deaths and medical costs averted through 2020. We collected data on the costs to implement CPPW tobacco interventions from 2010 to 2013. We adjusted all costs to 2010 dollars. CPPW tobacco interventions cost $130.5 million across all communities, with an average community cost of $6.2 million. We found $735 million in potentially averted medical costs cumulatively from 2010 through 2020 because of the CPPW-supported interventions. If the CPPW tobacco control PSE changes are sustained through 2020 without additional funding after 2013, we find that medical costs averted will likely exceed program costs by $604 million. Our results suggest that the medical costs averted through 2020 may more than offset the initial investment in CPPW tobacco control interventions, implying that such interventions may be cost saving, especially over the long term.

Estimating the Relative Impact of Clinical and Preventive Community-Based Interventions: An Example Based on the Community Transformation Grant Program.

INTRODUCTION: Public health focuses on a range of evidence-based approaches for addressing chronic conditions, from individual-level clinical interventions to broader changes in policies and environments that protect people's health and make healthy living easier. This study examined the potential long-term impact of clinical and community interventions as they were implemented by Community Transformation Grant (CTG) program awardees. METHODS: We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model, a system dynamics model of cardiovascular disease prevention, to simulate the potential 10-year and 25-year impact of clinical and community interventions implemented by 32 communities receiving a CTG program award, assuming that program interventions were sustained during these periods. RESULTS: Sustained clinical interventions implemented by CTG awardees could potentially avert more than 36,000 premature deaths and $3.2 billion in discounted direct medical costs (2017 US dollars) over 10 years and 109,000 premature deaths and $8.1 billion in discounted medical costs over 25 years. Sustained community interventions could avert more than 24,000 premature deaths and $3.4 billion in discounted direct medical costs over 10 years and 88,000 premature deaths and $9.1 billion in discounted direct medical costs over 25 years. CTG clinical activities had cost-effectiveness of $302,000 per death averted at the 10-year mark and $188,000 per death averted at the 25-year mark. Community interventions had cost-effectiveness of $169,000 and $57,000 per death averted at the 10- and 25-year marks, respectively. CONCLUSION: Clinical interventions have the potential to avert more premature deaths than community interventions. However, community interventions, if sustained over the long term, have better cost-effectiveness.

Costs of community-based interventions from the Community Transformation Grants.

Limited data are available on the costs of evidence-based community-wide prevention programs. The objective of this study was to estimate the per-person costs of strategies that support policy, systems, and environmental changes implemented under the Community Transformation Grants (CTG) program. We collected cost data from 29 CTG awardees and estimated program costs as spending on labor; consultants; materials, travel, and services; overhead activities; partners; and the value of in-kind contributions. We estimated costs per person reached for 20 strategies. We assessed how per-person costs varied with the number of people reached. Data were collected in 2012-2015, and the analysis was conducted in 2015-2016. Two of the tobacco-free living strategies cost less than $1.20 per person and reached over 6 million people each. Four of the healthy eating strategies cost less than $1.00 per person, and one of them reached over 6.5 million people. One of the active living strategies cost $2.20 per person and reached over 7 million people. Three of the clinical and community preventive services strategies cost less than $2.30 per person, and one of them reached almost 2 million people. Across all 20 strategies combined, an increase of 10,000 people in the number of people reached was associated with a $0.22 reduction in the per-person cost. Results demonstrate that interventions, such as tobacco-free indoor policies, which have been shown to improve health outcomes have relatively low per-person costs and are able to reach a large number of people.

State-level medical and absenteeism cost of asthma in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: For medically treated asthma, we estimated prevalence, medical and absenteeism costs, and projected medical costs from 2015 to 2020 for the entire population and separately for children in the 50 US states and District of Columbia (DC) using the most recently available data. METHODS: We used multiple data sources, including the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, Kaiser Family Foundation, Medical Statistical Information System, and Current Population Survey. We used a two-part regression model to estimate annual medical costs of asthma and a negative binomial model to estimate annual school and work days missed due to asthma. RESULTS: Per capita medical costs of asthma ranged from $1,860 (Mississippi) to $2,514 (Michigan). Total medical costs of asthma ranged from $60.7 million (Wyoming) to $3.4 billion (California). Medicaid costs ranged from $4.1 million (Wyoming) to $566.8 million (California), Medicare from $5.9 million (DC) to $446.6 million (California), and costs paid by private insurers ranged from $27.2 million (DC) to $1.4 billion (California). Total annual school and work days lost due to asthma ranged from 22.4 thousand (Wyoming) to 1.5 million days (California) and absenteeism costs ranged from $4.4 million (Wyoming) to $345 million (California). Projected increase in medical costs from 2015 to 2020 ranged from 9% (DC) to 34% (Arizona). CONCLUSION: Medical and absenteeism costs of asthma represent a significant economic burden for states and these costs are expected to rise. Our study results emphasize the urgency for strategies to strengthen state level efforts to prevent and control asthma attacks.

Community-Based Interventions to Decrease Obesity and Tobacco Exposure and Reduce Health Care Costs: Outcome Estimates From Communities Putting Prevention to Work for 2010-2020.

INTRODUCTION: In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) launched Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW), a $485 million program to reduce obesity, tobacco use, and exposure to secondhand smoke. CPPW awardees implemented evidence-based policy, systems, and environmental changes to sustain reductions in chronic disease risk factors. This article describes short-term and potential long-term benefits of the CPPW investment. METHODS: We used a mixed-methods approach to estimate population reach and to simulate the effects of completed CPPW interventions through 2020. Each awardee developed a community action plan. We linked plan objectives to a common set of interventions across awardees and estimated population reach as an early indicator of impact. We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), a systems dynamics model of cardiovascular disease prevention, to simulate premature deaths, health care costs, and productivity losses averted from 2010 through 2020 attributable to CPPW. RESULTS: Awardees completed 73% of their planned objectives. Sustained CPPW improvements may avert 14,000 premature deaths, $2.4 billion (in 2010 dollars) in discounted direct medical costs, and $9.5 billion (in 2010 dollars) in discounted lifetime and annual productivity losses through 2020. CONCLUSION: PRISM results suggest that large investments in community preventive interventions, if sustained, could yield cost savings many times greater than the original investment over 10 to 20 years and avert 14,000 premature deaths.

Costs of Chronic Diseases at the State Level: The Chronic Disease Cost Calculator.

INTRODUCTION: Many studies have estimated national chronic disease costs, but state-level estimates are limited. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed the Chronic Disease Cost Calculator (CDCC), which estimates state-level costs for arthritis, asthma, cancer, congestive heart failure, coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, other heart diseases, depression, and diabetes. METHODS: Using publicly available and restricted secondary data from multiple national data sets from 2004 through 2008, disease-attributable annual per-person medical and absenteeism costs were estimated. Total state medical and absenteeism costs were derived by multiplying per person costs from regressions by the number of people in the state treated for each disease. Medical costs were estimated for all payers and separately for Medicaid, Medicare, and private insurers. Projected medical costs for all payers (2010 through 2020) were calculated using medical costs and projected state population counts. RESULTS: Median state-specific medical costs ranged from $410 million (asthma) to $1.8 billion (diabetes); median absenteeism costs ranged from $5 million (congestive heart failure) to $217 million (arthritis). CONCLUSION: CDCC provides methodologically rigorous chronic disease cost estimates. These estimates highlight possible areas of cost savings achievable through targeted prevention efforts or research into new interventions and treatments.

Strategic Planning for Chronic Disease Prevention in Rural America: Looking Through a PRISM Lens.

CONTEXT: Community-level strategic planning for chronic disease prevention. OBJECTIVE: To share the outcomes of the strategic planning process used by Mississippi Delta stakeholders to prevent and reduce the negative impacts of chronic disease in their communities. A key component of strategic planning was participants' use of the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) to project the reduction, compared with the status quo, in deaths and costs from implementing interventions in Mississippi Delta communities. DESIGN: Participants in Mississippi Delta strategic planning meetings used PRISM, a user-friendly, evidence-based simulation tool that includes 22 categories of policy, systems, and environmental change interventions, to pose what-if questions that explore the likely short- and long-term effects of an intervention or any desired combination of the 22 categories of chronic disease intervention programs and policies captured in PRISM. These categories address smoking, air pollution, poor nutrition, and lack of physical activity. Strategic planning participants used PRISM outputs to inform their decisions and actions to implement interventions. SETTING: Rural communities in the Mississippi Delta. PARTICIPANTS: A diverse group of 29 to 34 local chronic disease prevention stakeholders, known as the Mississippi Delta Strategic Alliance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Community plans and actions that were developed and implemented as a result of local strategic planning. RESULTS: Existing strategic planning efforts were complemented by the use of PRISM. The Mississippi Delta Strategic Alliance decided to implement new interventions to improve air quality and transportation and to expand existing interventions to reduce tobacco use and increase access to healthy foods. They also collaborated with the Department of Transportation to raise awareness and use of the current transportation network. CONCLUSIONS: The Mississippi Delta Strategic Alliance strategic planning process was complemented by the use of PRISM as a tool for strategic planning, which led to the implementation of new and strengthened chronic disease prevention interventions and policies in the Mississippi Delta.

Using simulation to compare 4 categories of intervention for reducing cardiovascular disease risks.

The Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) projects the multiyear impacts of 22 different interventions aimed at reducing risk of cardiovascular disease. We grouped these into 4 categories: clinical, behavioral support, health promotion and access, and taxes and regulation. We simulated impacts for the United States overall and also for a less-advantaged county with a higher death rate. Of the 4 categories of intervention, taxes and regulation reduce costs the most in the short term (through 2020) and long term (through 2040) and reduce deaths the most in the long term; they are second to clinical interventions in reducing deaths in the short term. All 4 categories combined were required to bring costs and deaths in the less-advantaged county down to the national level.

Using simulation to compare established and emerging interventions to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: Computer simulation offers the ability to compare diverse interventions for reducing cardiovascular disease risks in a controlled and systematic way that cannot be done in the real world. METHODS: We used the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM) to analyze the effect of 50 intervention levers, grouped into 6 (2 x 3) clusters on the basis of whether they were established or emerging and whether they acted in the policy domains of care (clinical, mental health, and behavioral services), air (smoking, secondhand smoke, and air pollution), or lifestyle (nutrition and physical activity). Uncertainty ranges were established through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Results indicate that by 2040, all 6 intervention clusters combined could result in cumulative reductions of 49% to 54% in the cardiovascular risk-related death rate and of 13% to 21% in risk factor-attributable costs. A majority of the death reduction would come from Established interventions, but Emerging interventions would also contribute strongly. A slim majority of the cost reduction would come from Emerging interventions. CONCLUSION: PRISM allows public health officials to examine the potential influence of different types of interventions - both established and emerging - for reducing cardiovascular risks. Our modeling suggests that established interventions could still contribute much to reducing deaths and costs, especially through greater use of well-known approaches to preventive and acute clinical care, whereas emerging interventions have the potential to contribute significantly, especially through certain types of preventive care and improved nutrition.

State-level cancer treatment costs: how much and who pays?

BACKGROUND: Cancer treatment accounts for approximately 5% of national health expenditures. However, no state-level estimates of cancer treatment costs have been published. METHODS: In analyses of data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Current Population Survey, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, this study used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level cancer care costs during 2004 to 2008 for 4 categories of payers: all payers, Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance. RESULTS: State-level cancer care costs ranged from $227 million to $13.6 billion (median = $2.0 billion) in 2010 dollars. Medicare paid between 25.1% and 36.1% of these costs (median = 32.5%); private insurance paid between 36.0% and 49.6% (median = 43.3%); and Medicaid paid between 2.0% and 8.8% (median = 4.8%). Cancer treatment accounted for 3.8% to 8.7% of all state-level medical expenditures (median = 7.0%), 8.5% to 15.0% of state-level Medicare expenditures (median = 10.6%), 1.0% to 4.9% of state-level Medicaid expenditures (median = 2.2%), and 5.5% to 10.9% of state-level private insurance expenditures (median = 8.7%). CONCLUSIONS: The costs of cancer treatment were substantial in all states and accounted for a sizable fraction of medical expenditures for all payers. The high cost of cancer treatment underscores the importance of preventing and controlling cancer as one approach to manage state-level medical costs.

From model to action: using a system dynamics model of chronic disease risks to align community action.

Health planners in Austin, Texas, are using a System Dynamics Model of Cardiovascular Disease Risks (SD model) to align prevention efforts and maximize the effect of limited resources. The SD model was developed using available evidence of disease prevalence, risk factors, local contextual factors, resulting health conditions, and their impact on population health. Given an interest in understanding opportunities for upstream health protection, the SD model focused on the portion of the population that has never had a cardiovascular event. Leaders in Austin used this interactive simulation model as a catalyst for convening diverse stakeholders in thinking about their strategic directions and policy priorities. Health officials shared insights from the model with a range of organizations in an effort to align actions and leverage assets in the community to promote healthier conditions for all. This article summarizes the results from several simulated intervention scenarios focusing specifically on conditions in East Travis County, an area marked by higher prevalence of adverse living conditions and related chronic diseases. The article also describes the formation of a new Chronic Disease Prevention Coalition in Austin, along with shifts in its members' perceived priorities for intervention both before and after interactions with the SD model.

Forecasting the future of cardiovascular disease in the United States: a policy statement from the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States and is responsible for 17% of national health expenditures. As the population ages, these costs are expected to increase substantially. METHODS AND RESULTS: To prepare for future cardiovascular care needs, the American Heart Association developed methodology to project future costs of care for hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, stroke, and all other CVD from 2010 to 2030. This methodology avoided double counting of costs for patients with multiple cardiovascular conditions. By 2030, 40.5% of the US population is projected to have some form of CVD. Between 2010 and 2030, real (2008$) total direct medical costs of CVD are projected to triple, from $273 billion to $818 billion. Real indirect costs (due to lost productivity) for all CVD are estimated to increase from $172 billion in 2010 to $276 billion in 2030, an increase of 61%. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate CVD prevalence and costs are projected to increase substantially. Effective prevention strategies are needed if we are to limit the growing burden of CVD.

Association Between LGBTQ Student Nondiscrimination Laws in Selected States and School District Support for Gay-Straight Alliances.

PURPOSE: To examine the association between state laws protecting lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer/questioning (LGBTQ) students and school districts' recommendations or requirements for establishing gay-straight alliances (GSAs) in schools. Beginning in fall 2013, 19 state education agencies (SEAs) engaged in HIV/STI and pregnancy prevention activities in "priority" school districts. SEAs provided support to priority districts to require or recommend GSAs in their schools. METHODS: This study used semi-annually collected program evaluation data and state law data from the Gay, Lesbian, and Straight Education Network. We assessed whether increases in the percentage of priority districts recommending or requiring schools to provide GSAs varied by the presence of nondiscrimination or enumerated antibullying laws with a difference-in-difference design. RESULTS: States with nondiscrimination laws began with more priority districts recommending or requiring schools to provide GSAs (52.5%) compared to states without laws (47.5%). We found a significant interaction (p < .01) between increases in the percentage of priority districts recommending or requiring a GSA and having a state nondiscrimination law. Across the first 3 years of program implementation, there was a 30% increase (p < .01) in priority districts recommending or requiring schools to provide GSAs in states with nondiscrimination laws, compared to a 12% increase (p < .01) in states without laws. There was no significant interaction between states with enumerated antibullying laws and districts recommending or requiring a GSA. DISCUSSION: State LGBTQ nondiscrimination laws for students may facilitate school district support of GSAs, which may decrease health risks among LGBTQ youth.

Simulating and evaluating local interventions to improve cardiovascular health.

Numerous local interventions for cardiovascular disease are available, but resources to deliver them are limited. Identifying the most effective interventions is challenging because cardiovascular risks develop through causal pathways and gradual accumulations that defy simple calculation. We created a simulation model for evaluating multiple approaches to preventing and managing cardiovascular risks. The model incorporates data from many sources to represent all US adults who have never had a cardiovascular event. It simulates trajectories for the leading direct and indirect risk factors from 1990 to 2040 and evaluates 19 interventions. The main outcomes are first-time cardiovascular events and consequent deaths, as well as total consequence costs, which combine medical expenditures and productivity costs associated with cardiovascular events and risk factors. We used sensitivity analyses to examine the significance of uncertain parameters. A base case scenario shows that population turnover and aging strongly influence the future trajectories of several risk factors. At least 15 of 19 interventions are potentially cost saving and could reduce deaths from first cardiovascular events by approximately 20% and total consequence costs by 26%. Some interventions act quickly to reduce deaths, while others more gradually reduce costs related to risk factors. Although the model is still evolving, the simulated experiments reported here can inform policy and spending decisions.

Strategies for controlling blood pressure among low-income populations in Georgia.

BACKGROUND: In Georgia an estimated 32% of blacks and 28% of whites have high blood pressure. In 2004 the rate of death from stroke in Georgia was 12% higher than the national average, and blacks in the state have a 1.4 times greater rate of death from stroke than that of whites. CONTEXT: The Georgia legislature funds the Stroke and Heart Attack Prevention Program (SHAPP) to provide treatment and medications for indigent Georgians. The median rate of blood pressure (BP) control among SHAPP enrollees is approximately 60%, compared with the national average of 35%. METHODS: SHAPP was evaluated through interviews with key health care and administrative staff and through focus groups of patients in two clinics. CONSEQUENCES: Outcomes for patients were increased knowledge of their BP and improved compliance with taking medication and keeping clinic appointments. INTERPRETATION: Successful components of SHAPP include an easy enrollment process; affordable medication; use of evidence-based, documented protocols and patient tracking systems; routine follow-up of patients; and effective communication between staff and patients. Challenges and recommendations for improvement are identified.

The economic burden of chronic cardiovascular disease for major insurers.

Accounting models provide less precise estimates of disease burden than do econometric models. The authors seek to improve these estimates for cardiovascular disease using a nationally representative survey and econometric modeling to isolate the proportion of medical expenditures attributable to four chronic cardiovascular diseases: stroke, hypertension, congestive heart failure, and other heart diseases. Approximately 17% of all medical expenditures, or $149 billion annually, and nearly 30% of Medicare expenditures are attributable to these diseases. Of the four diseases, hypertension accounts for the largest share of prescription expenditures across payers and the largest share of all Medicaid expenditures. The large number of people with cardiovascular disease who are eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid could lead to large shifts in the burden to these payers as prescription drug coverage is included in Medicare. A societal perspective is important when describing the economic burden of cardiovascular disease.

A cost evaluation of the Georgia Stroke and Heart Attack Prevention Program.

INTRODUCTION: Hypertension is a leading cause of stroke, coronary artery disease, heart attack, and heart and kidney failure in the United States, all of which contribute to the rising costs of health care. The Georgia Stroke and Heart Attack Prevention Program is an education and direct service program for low-income patients with hypertension. This project evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the program compared with the following two alternative scenarios: no treatment for high blood pressure and the typical hypertension treatment received in the private sector nationwide (usual care). METHODS: We estimated the preventive treatment costs and number of adverse health events averted (hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke, heart disease, and kidney failure) associated with the Georgia Stroke and Heart Attack Prevention Program in two Georgia health districts. We used program cost and service usage data obtained from the Georgia Department of Human Resources and probabilities and costs of expected adverse events published in peer-reviewed sources. We compared program costs and number of expected adverse health events averted with those expected from 1) no preventive care and 2) usual care for high blood pressure. RESULTS: The Georgia Stroke and Heart Attack Prevention Program was less costly and resulted in better health outcomes than either no preventive care or usual care. Compared with no preventive care in the two districts, the program was estimated to result in 54% fewer expected adverse events; compared with usual care, the program was estimated to result in 46% fewer expected adverse events. Combining the costs of preventive treatment with the costs of expected adverse events, the Georgia Stroke and Heart Attack Prevention Program cost an average of 486 dollars per patient annually, compared with average annual costs of 534 dollars for no care and 624 dollars for usual care. CONCLUSION: Maintaining a publicly financed stroke and heart attack prevention program is more cost-effective and results in greater health benefits than other plausible scenarios. Because the benefits of this program accrue to both the state and federal governments through reduced Medicaid and indigent care expenditures, both the state and federal governments have a financial incentive to support the program.

Heart healthy and stroke free: successful business strategies to prevent cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Heart disease and stroke, the principal components of cardiovascular disease (CVD), are the first and third leading causes of death in the United States. In 2002, employers representing 88 companies in the United States paid an average of 18,618 dollars per employee for health and productivity-related costs. A sizable portion of these costs are related to CVD. RESULTS: Employers can yield a 3 dollar to 6 dollar return on investment for each dollar invested over a 2 to 5 year period and improve employee cardiovascular health by investing in comprehensive worksite health-promotion programs, and by choosing health plans that provide adequate coverage and support for essential preventive services. The most effective interventions in worksites are those that provide sustained individual follow-up risk factor education and counseling and other interventions within the context of a comprehensive health-promotion program: (1) screening, health risk assessments, and referrals; (2) environmental supports for behavior change (e.g., access to healthy food choices); (3) financial and other incentives; and (4) corporate policies that support healthy lifestyles (e.g., tobacco-free policies). The most effective practices in healthcare settings include systems that use (1) standardized treatment and prevention protocols consistent with national guidelines, (2) multidisciplinary clinical care teams to deliver quality patient care, (3) clinics that specialize in treating/preventing risk factors, (4) physician and patient reminders, and (5) electronic medical records. CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive worksite health-promotion programs, health plans that cover preventive benefits, and effective healthcare systems will have the greatest impact on heart disease and stroke and are likely to reduce employers' health and productivity-related costs.

Mortality benefits from US population-wide reduction in sodium consumption: projections from 3 modeling approaches.

Computer simulations have been used to estimate the mortality benefits from population-wide reductions in dietary sodium, although comparisons of these estimates have not been rigorously evaluated. We used 3 different approaches to model the effect of sodium reduction in the US population over the next 10 years, incorporating evidence for direct effects on cardiovascular disease mortality (method 1), indirect effects mediated by blood pressure changes as observed in randomized controlled trials of antihypertension medications (method 2), or epidemiological studies (method 3).The 3 different modeling approaches were used to model the same scenarios: scenario A, gradual uniform reduction totaling 40% over 10 years; scenario B, instantaneous 40% reduction in sodium consumption sustained for 10 years to achieve a population-wide mean of 2200 mg/d; and scenario C, instantaneous reduction to 1500 mg sodium per day sustained for 10 years. All 3 methods consistently show a substantial health benefit for reductions in dietary sodium under each of the 3 scenarios tested. A gradual reduction in dietary sodium over the next decade (scenario A) as might be achieved with a range of proposed public health interventions would yield considerable health benefits over the next decade, with mean effects across the 3 models ranging from 280 000 to 500 000 deaths averted. Projections of instantaneous reductions illustrate the maximum benefits that could be achieved (0.7-1.2 million deaths averted in 10 years). Under 3 different modeling assumptions, the projected health benefits from reductions in dietary sodium are substantial.