Extended Energy-Expenditure Model in Soccer: Evaluating Player Performance in the Context of the Game.

Every soccer game influences each player's performance differently. Many studies have tried to explain the influence of different parameters on the game; however, none went deeper into the core and examined it minute-by-minute. The goal of this study is to use data derived from GPS wearable devices to present a new framework for performance analysis. A player's energy expenditure is analyzed using data analytics and K-means clustering of low-, middle-, and high-intensity periods distributed in 1 min segments. Our framework exhibits a higher explanatory power compared to usual game metrics (e.g., high-speed running and sprinting), explaining 45.91% of the coefficient of variation vs. 21.32% for high-, 30.66% vs. 16.82% for middle-, and 24.41% vs. 19.12% for low-intensity periods. The proposed methods enable deeper game analysis, which can help strength and conditioning coaches and managers in gaining better insights into the players' responses to various game situations.

Gastroesophageal reflux symptoms among Italian university students: epidemiology and dietary correlates using automatically recorded transactions.

BACKGROUND: Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is one of the most common gastrointestinal disorders worldwide, with relevant impact on the quality of life and health care costs.The aim of our study is to assess the prevalence of GERD based on self-reported symptoms among university students in central Italy. The secondary aim is to evaluate lifestyle correlates, particularly eating habits, in GERD students using automatically recorded transactions through cashiers at university canteen. METHODS: A web-survey was created and launched through an app, ad-hoc developed for an interactive exchange of information with students, including anthropometric data and lifestyle habits. Moreover, the web-survey allowed users a self-diagnosis of GERD through a simple questionnaire. As regard eating habits, detailed collection of meals consumed, including number and type of dishes, were automatically recorded through cashiers at the university canteen equipped with an automatic registration system. RESULTS: We collected 3012 questionnaires. A total of 792 students (26.2% of the respondents) reported typical GERD symptoms occurring at least weekly. Female sex was more prevalent than male sex. In the set of students with GERD, the percentage of smokers was higher, and our results showed that when BMI tends to higher values the percentage of students with GERD tends to increase. When evaluating correlates with diet, we found, among all users, a lower frequency of legumes choice in GERD students and, among frequent users, a lower frequency of choice of pasta and rice in GERD students. DISCUSSION: The results of our study are in line with the values reported in the literature. Nowadays, GERD is a common problem in our communities, and can potentially lead to serious medical complications; the economic burden involved in the diagnostic and therapeutic management of the disease has a relevant impact on healthcare costs. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study evaluating the prevalence of typical GERD-related symptoms in a young population of University students in Italy. Considering the young age of enrolled subjects, our prevalence rate, relatively high compared to the usual estimates, could represent a further negative factor for the future economic sustainability of the healthcare system.

Mobility constraints in segregation models.

Since the development of the original Schelling model of urban segregation, several enhancements have been proposed, but none have considered the impact of mobility constraints on model dynamics. Recent studies have shown that human mobility follows specific patterns, such as a preference for short distances and dense locations. This paper proposes a segregation model incorporating mobility constraints to make agents select their location based on distance and location relevance. Our findings indicate that the mobility-constrained model produces lower segregation levels but takes longer to converge than the original Schelling model. We identified a few persistently unhappy agents from the minority group who cause this prolonged convergence time and lower segregation level as they move around the grid centre. Our study presents a more realistic representation of how agents move in urban areas and provides a novel and insightful approach to analyzing the impact of mobility constraints on segregation models. We highlight the significance of incorporating mobility constraints when policymakers design interventions to address urban segregation.

Future directions in human mobility science.

We provide a brief review of human mobility science and present three key areas where we expect to see substantial advancements. We start from the mind and discuss the need to better understand how spatial cognition shapes mobility patterns. We then move to societies and argue the importance of better understanding new forms of transportation. We conclude by discussing how algorithms shape mobility behavior and provide useful tools for modelers. Finally, we discuss how progress on these research directions may help us address some of the challenges our society faces today.

A dataset to assess mobility changes in Chile following local quarantines.

Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions like wearing masks, physical distancing, lockdown, and travel restrictions. Because of their economic and logistical effects, tracking mobility changes during quarantines is crucial in assessing their efficacy and predicting the virus spread. Unlike many other heavily affected countries, Chile implemented quarantines at a more localized level, shutting down small administrative zones, rather than the whole country or large regions. Given the non-obvious effects of these localized quarantines, tracking mobility becomes even more critical in Chile. To assess the impact on human mobility of the localized quarantines, we analyze a mobile phone dataset made available by Telefónica Chile, which comprises 31 billion eXtended Detail Records and 5.4 million users covering the period February 26th to September 20th, 2020. From these records, we derive three epidemiologically relevant metrics describing the mobility within and between comunas. The datasets made available may be useful to understand the effect of localized quarantines in containing the COVID-19 pandemic.

Understanding peace through the world news.

Peace is a principal dimension of well-being and is the way out of inequity and violence. Thus, its measurement has drawn the attention of researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers. During the last years, novel digital data streams have drastically changed the research in this field. The current study exploits information extracted from a new digital database called Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone (GDELT) to capture peace through the Global Peace Index (GPI). Applying predictive machine learning models, we demonstrate that news media attention from GDELT can be used as a proxy for measuring GPI at a monthly level. Additionally, we use explainable AI techniques to obtain the most important variables that drive the predictions. This analysis highlights each country's profile and provides explanations for the predictions, and particularly for the errors and the events that drive these errors. We believe that digital data exploited by researchers, policymakers, and peacekeepers, with data science tools as powerful as machine learning, could contribute to maximizing the societal benefits and minimizing the risks to peace. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-022-00315-z.

Generating mobility networks with generative adversarial networks.

The increasingly crucial role of human displacements in complex societal phenomena, such as traffic congestion, segregation, and the diffusion of epidemics, is attracting the interest of scientists from several disciplines. In this article, we address mobility network generation, i.e., generating a city's entire mobility network, a weighted directed graph in which nodes are geographic locations and weighted edges represent people's movements between those locations, thus describing the entire mobility set flows within a city. Our solution is MoGAN, a model based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to generate realistic mobility networks. We conduct extensive experiments on public datasets of bike and taxi rides to show that MoGAN outperforms the classical Gravity and Radiation models regarding the realism of the generated networks. Our model can be used for data augmentation and performing simulations and what-if analysis.

Wellness Forecasting by External and Internal Workloads in Elite Soccer Players: A Machine Learning Approach.

Training for success has increasingly become a balance between maintaining high performance standards and avoiding the negative consequences of accumulated fatigue. The aim of this study is to develop a big data analytics framework to predict players' wellness according to the external and internal workloads performed in previous days. Such a framework is useful for coaches and staff to simulate the players' response to scheduled training in order to adapt the training stimulus to the players' fatigue response. 17 players competing in the Italian championship (Serie A) were recruited for this study. Players' Global Position System (GPS) data was recorded during each training and match. Moreover, every morning each player has filled in a questionnaire about their perceived wellness (WI) that consists of a 7-point Likert scale for 4 items (fatigue, sleep, stress, and muscle soreness). Finally, the rate of perceived exertion (RPE) was used to assess the effort performed by the players after each training or match. The main findings of this study are that it is possible to accurately estimate players' WI considering their workload history as input. The machine learning framework proposed in this study is useful for sports scientists, athletic trainers, and coaches to maximise the periodization of the training based on the physiological requests of a specific period of the season.

Explaining the difference between men's and women's football.

Women's football is gaining supporters and practitioners worldwide, raising questions about what the differences are with men's football. While the two sports are often compared based on the players' physical attributes, we analyze the spatio-temporal events during matches in the last World Cups to compare male and female teams based on their technical performance. We train an artificial intelligence model to recognize if a team is male or female based on variables that describe a match's playing intensity, accuracy, and performance quality. Our model accurately distinguishes between men's and women's football, revealing crucial technical differences, which we investigate through the extraction of explanations from the classifier's decisions. The differences between men's and women's football are rooted in play accuracy, the recovery time of ball possession, and the players' performance quality. Our methodology may help journalists and fans understand what makes women's football a distinct sport and coaches design tactics tailored to female teams.

A Deep Gravity model for mobility flows generation.

The movements of individuals within and among cities influence critical aspects of our society, such as well-being, the spreading of epidemics, and the quality of the environment. When information about mobility flows is not available for a particular region of interest, we must rely on mathematical models to generate them. In this work, we propose Deep Gravity, an effective model to generate flow probabilities that exploits many features (e.g., land use, road network, transport, food, health facilities) extracted from voluntary geographic data, and uses deep neural networks to discover non-linear relationships between those features and mobility flows. Our experiments, conducted on mobility flows in England, Italy, and New York State, show that Deep Gravity achieves a significant increase in performance, especially in densely populated regions of interest, with respect to the classic gravity model and models that do not use deep neural networks or geographic data. Deep Gravity has good generalization capability, generating realistic flows also for geographic areas for which there is no data availability for training. Finally, we show how flows generated by Deep Gravity may be explained in terms of the geographic features and highlight crucial differences among the three considered countries interpreting the model's prediction with explainable AI techniques.

A Narrative Review for a Machine Learning Application in Sports: An Example Based on Injury Forecasting in Soccer.

In the last decade, the number of studies about machine learning algorithms applied to sports, e.g., injury forecasting and athlete performance prediction, have rapidly increased. Due to the number of works and experiments already present in the state-of-the-art regarding machine-learning techniques in sport science, the aim of this narrative review is to provide a guideline describing a correct approach for training, validating, and testing machine learning models to predict events in sports science. The main contribution of this narrative review is to highlight any possible strengths and limitations during all the stages of model development, i.e., training, validation, testing, and interpretation, in order to limit possible errors that could induce misleading results. In particular, this paper shows an example about injury forecaster that provides a description of all the features that could be used to predict injuries, all the possible pre-processing approaches for time series analysis, how to correctly split the dataset to train and test the predictive models, and the importance to explain the decision-making approach of the white and black box models.

Evaluation of home detection algorithms on mobile phone data using individual-level ground truth.

Inferring mobile phone users' home location, i.e., assigning a location in space to a user based on data generated by the mobile phone network, is a central task in leveraging mobile phone data to study social and urban phenomena. Despite its widespread use, home detection relies on assumptions that are difficult to check without ground truth, i.e., where the individual who owns the device resides. In this paper, we present a dataset that comprises the mobile phone activity of sixty-five participants for whom the geographical coordinates of their residence location are known. The mobile phone activity refers to Call Detail Records (CDRs), eXtended Detail Records (XDRs), and Control Plane Records (CPRs), which vary in their temporal granularity and differ in the data generation mechanism. We provide an unprecedented evaluation of the accuracy of home detection algorithms and quantify the amount of data needed for each stream to carry out successful home detection for each stream. Our work is useful for researchers and practitioners to minimize data requests and maximize the accuracy of the home antenna location. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-021-00284-9.

Living in a pandemic: changes in mobility routines, social activity and adherence to COVID-19 protective measures.

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs), aimed at reducing the diffusion of the COVID-19 pandemic, have dramatically influenced our everyday behaviour. In this work, we study how individuals adapted their daily movements and person-to-person contact patterns over time in response to the NPIs. We leverage longitudinal GPS mobility data of hundreds of thousands of anonymous individuals to empirically show and quantify the dramatic disruption in people's mobility habits and social behaviour. We find that local interventions did not just impact the number of visits to different venues but also how people experience them. Individuals spend less time in venues, preferring simpler and more predictable routines, also reducing person-to-person contacts. Moreover, we find that the individual patterns of visits are influenced by the strength of the NPIs policies, the local severity of the pandemic and a risk adaptation factor, which increases the people's mobility regardless of the stringency of interventions. Finally, despite the gradual recovery in visit patterns, we find that individuals continue to keep person-to-person contacts low. This apparent conflict hints that the evolution of policy adherence should be carefully addressed by policymakers, epidemiologists and mobility experts.

A public data set of spatio-temporal match events in soccer competitions.

Soccer analytics is attracting increasing interest in academia and industry, thanks to the availability of sensing technologies that provide high-fidelity data streams for every match. Unfortunately, these detailed data are owned by specialized companies and hence are rarely publicly available for scientific research. To fill this gap, this paper describes the largest open collection of soccer-logs ever released, containing all the spatio-temporal events (passes, shots, fouls, etc.) that occured during each match for an entire season of seven prominent soccer competitions. Each match event contains information about its position, time, outcome, player and characteristics. The nature of team sports like soccer, halfway between the abstraction of a game and the reality of complex social systems, combined with the unique size and composition of this dataset, provide an ideal ground for tackling a wide range of data science problems, including the measurement and evaluation of performance, both at individual and at collective level, and the determinants of success and failure.

Data-driven generation of spatio-temporal routines in human mobility.

The generation of realistic spatio-temporal trajectories of human mobility is of fundamental importance in a wide range of applications, such as the developing of protocols for mobile ad-hoc networks or what-if analysis in urban ecosystems. Current generative algorithms fail in accurately reproducing the individuals' recurrent schedules and at the same time in accounting for the possibility that individuals may break the routine during periods of variable duration. In this article we present Ditras (DIary-based TRAjectory Simulator), a framework to simulate the spatio-temporal patterns of human mobility. Ditras operates in two steps: the generation of a mobility diary and the translation of the mobility diary into a mobility trajectory. We propose a data-driven algorithm which constructs a diary generator from real data, capturing the tendency of individuals to follow or break their routine. We also propose a trajectory generator based on the concept of preferential exploration and preferential return. We instantiate Ditras with the proposed diary and trajectory generators and compare the resulting algorithm with real data and synthetic data produced by other generative algorithms, built by instantiating Ditras with several combinations of diary and trajectory generators. We show that the proposed algorithm reproduces the statistical properties of real trajectories in the most accurate way, making a step forward the understanding of the origin of the spatio-temporal patterns of human mobility.

Gravity and scaling laws of city to city migration.

Models of human migration provide powerful tools to forecast the flow of migrants, measure the impact of a policy, determine the cost of physical and political frictions and more. Here, we analyse the migration of individuals from and to cities in the US, finding that city to city migration follows scaling laws, so that the city size is a significant factor in determining whether, or not, an individual decides to migrate and the city size of both the origin and destination play key roles in the selection of the destination. We observe that individuals from small cities tend to migrate more frequently, tending to move to similar-sized cities, whereas individuals from large cities do not migrate so often, but when they do, they tend to move to other large cities. Building upon these findings we develop a scaling model which describes internal migration as a two-step decision process, demonstrating that it can partially explain migration fluxes based solely on city size. We then consider the impact of distance and construct a gravity-scaling model by combining the observed scaling patterns with the gravity law of migration. Results show that the scaling laws are a significant feature of human migration and that the inclusion of scaling can overcome the limits of the gravity and the radiation models of human migration.

Effective injury forecasting in soccer with GPS training data and machine learning.

Injuries have a great impact on professional soccer, due to their large influence on team performance and the considerable costs of rehabilitation for players. Existing studies in the literature provide just a preliminary understanding of which factors mostly affect injury risk, while an evaluation of the potential of statistical models in forecasting injuries is still missing. In this paper, we propose a multi-dimensional approach to injury forecasting in professional soccer that is based on GPS measurements and machine learning. By using GPS tracking technology, we collect data describing the training workload of players in a professional soccer club during a season. We then construct an injury forecaster and show that it is both accurate and interpretable by providing a set of case studies of interest to soccer practitioners. Our approach opens a novel perspective on injury prevention, providing a set of simple and practical rules for evaluating and interpreting the complex relations between injury risk and training performance in professional soccer.

Returners and explorers dichotomy in human mobility.

The availability of massive digital traces of human whereabouts has offered a series of novel insights on the quantitative patterns characterizing human mobility. In particular, numerous recent studies have lead to an unexpected consensus: the considerable variability in the characteristic travelled distance of individuals coexists with a high degree of predictability of their future locations. Here we shed light on this surprising coexistence by systematically investigating the impact of recurrent mobility on the characteristic distance travelled by individuals. Using both mobile phone and GPS data, we discover the existence of two distinct classes of individuals: returners and explorers. As existing models of human mobility cannot explain the existence of these two classes, we develop more realistic models able to capture the empirical findings. Finally, we show that returners and explorers play a distinct quantifiable role in spreading phenomena and that a correlation exists between their mobility patterns and social interactions.