The effects of weather variability on patterns of genetic diversity in Tasmanian bettongs.

While the effects of climate (long-term, prevailing weather) on species abundance, range and genetic diversity have been widely studied, short-term, localized variations in atmospheric conditions (i.e., weather) can also rapidly alter species' geographical ranges and population sizes, but little is known about how they affect genetic diversity. We investigated the relationship between weather and range-wide genetic diversity in a marsupial, Bettongia gaimardi, using dynamic species distribution models (SDMs). Genetic diversity was lower in parts of the range where the weather-based SDM predicted high variability in probability of B. gaimardi occurrence during 1950-2009. This is probably an effect of lower population sizes and extinction-recolonization cycles in places with highly variable weather. Spatial variation in genetic diversity was also better predicted by mean probabilities of B. gaimardi occurrence from weather- than climate-based SDMs. Our results illustrate the importance of weather in driving population dynamics and species distributions on decadal timescales and thereby in affecting genetic diversity. Modelling the links between changing weather patterns, species distributions and genetic diversity will allow researchers to better forecast biological impacts of climate change.

Distribution and risk factors for spread of amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area, Australia.

Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease caused by the pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and is the cause of the decline and extinction of amphibian species throughout the world. We surveyed the distribution of Bd within and around the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA), a 1.38 million ha area of significant fauna conservation value, which provides the majority of habitat for Tasmania's 3 endemic frog species (Litoria burrowsae, Bryobatrachus nimbus and Crinia tasmaniensis). Bd was detected at only 1 (3%) of the 33 sites surveyed within the TWWHA and at 15 (52%) of the 29 sites surveyed surrounding the TWWHA. The relatively low incidence of the disease within the TWWHA suggests that the majority of the TWWHA is currently free of the pathogen despite the fact that the region provides what appears to be optimal conditions for the persistence of Bd. For all survey sites within and around the TWWHA, the presence of Bd was strongly associated with the presence of gravel roads, forest and < 1000 m altitude--factors that in this study were associated with human-disturbed landscapes around the TWWHA. Conversely, the presence of walking tracks was strongly associated with the absence of Bd, suggesting an association of absence with relatively remote locations. The wide distribution of Bd in areas of Tasmania with high levels of human disturbance and its very limited occurrence in remote wilderness areas suggests that anthropogenic activities may facilitate the dissemination of the pathogen on a landscape scale in Tasmania. Because the majority of the TWWHA is not readily accessible and appears to be largely free of Bd, and because Tasmanian frogs reproduce in ponds rather than streams, it may be feasible to control the spread of the disease in the TWWHA.