A stepped-wedge randomised controlled trial to assess efficacy and cost-effectiveness of a care-bundle to prevent falls in older hospitalised patients.

BACKGROUND: Patient accidental falls in a hospital environment are a serious problem for patient safety, and for the additional costs due to associated medical interventions. OBJECTIVE: The endpoints of this study were the assessment of the fall incidence in the hospital before and after the implementation of a multidisciplinary care-bundle, along with a cost-effectiveness evaluation. DESIGN: A stepped-wedge trial was conducted between April 2015 and December 2016 in Bologna University Hospital. METHODS: Incidence rates (IRs) of falls in both the control and intervention periods were calculated. A multilevel mixed-effects generalised linear model with logit link function, adjusted for age, sex, cluster cross-over timing and patients' clinical severity was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) of fall risk of patients of the intervention group respect to the controls.Intervention costs associated with the introduction of the care-bundle intervention were spread between patients per cluster-period-group of exposure. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was evaluated using total costs in the intervention and control groups. RESULTS: IRs of falls in control and intervention periods were respectively 3.15 and 2.58 for 1,000 bed-days. After adjustment, the subjects receiving the intervention had a statistically significant reduced risk of falling with respect to those who did not (OR = 0.71, 95% confidence interval: 0.60-0.84). According to the cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost per fall prevented was €873.92 considering all costs, and €1644.45 excluding costs related falls. CONCLUSIONS: Care-bundle had a protective effect on patients, with a statistically significant reduction of the fall risk. This type of intervention appears cost-effective compared to routine practices.

Cost-effective clinical trial design: Application of a Bayesian sequential model to the ProFHER pragmatic trial.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: There is growing interest in the use of adaptive designs to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. We apply a Bayesian decision-theoretic model of a sequential experiment using cost and outcome data from the ProFHER pragmatic trial. We assess the model's potential for delivering value-based research. METHODS: Using parameter values estimated from the ProFHER pragmatic trial, including the costs of carrying out the trial, we establish when the trial could have stopped, had the model's value-based stopping rule been used. We use a bootstrap analysis and simulation study to assess a range of operating characteristics, which we compare with a fixed sample size design which does not allow for early stopping. RESULTS: We estimate that application of the model could have stopped the ProFHER trial early, reducing the sample size by about 14%, saving about 5% of the research budget and resulting in a technology recommendation which was the same as that of the trial. The bootstrap analysis suggests that the expected sample size would have been 38% lower, saving around 13% of the research budget, with a probability of 0.92 of making the same technology recommendation decision. It also shows a large degree of variability in the trial's sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Benefits to trial cost stewardship may be achieved by monitoring trial data as they accumulate and using a stopping rule which balances the benefit of obtaining more information through continued recruitment with the cost of obtaining that information. We present recommendations for further research investigating the application of value-based sequential designs.

Which valued-based price when patients are heterogeneous?

We use a simple model to study the static and dynamic efficiency of alternative regulation regimes for the reimbursement of medical innovations when responses to a new treatment (effectiveness) are heterogeneous across the eligible population. When the rational behavior of profit-maximizing firms is taken into account, only average value-based prices can ensure both static and dynamic efficiency, but they imply higher expenditure and lower consumer surplus. Ignoring dynamic efficiency, if patients' responses are sufficiently homogeneous, marginal value-based prices may dominate from the payer's perspective. We also present a refinement of average value-based prices that could reverse this result. Overall, the cost of ensuring static and dynamic efficiency is increasing in the degree of heterogeneity. A real-world example is used to illustrate these results.

The impact of managed entry agreements on pharmaceutical prices.

Managed entry agreements (MEAs) have been used for several years, with the aim of curbing the growth of pharmaceutical expenditure and enhancing patient access to innovation. Yet, much remains to be understood about their economic implications. This paper studies the impact of MEAs on list prices, that is, prices before the deduction of any discount. Using a theoretical model, we show that, under most price setting regimes, the introduction of an MEA leads to a higher list price. This is confirmed by our empirical analysis of a sample of 156 medicines in six countries, providing a conservative estimate of the increase in price due to the MEA of 5.9%. A relevant policy implication is that payers may overestimate the financial gains that can be achieved through this  tool.

Job sick leave: Detecting opportunistic behavior.

We utilize a large administrative dataset of sickness leave in Italy (a) to investigate whether private firms are more effective than the public insurer in choosing who to monitor and (b) to study the correlation between potentially opportunistic behavior and the observable characteristics of the employee. We find that private employers are more likely to select into monitoring employees who are fit for work despite being on sick leave, if the public insurer is not supported by any data-driven tool. However, the use of a scoring mechanism, based on past records, allows the public insurer to be as effective as the employer. This result suggests that the application of machine learning to appropriate databases may improve the targeting of public monitoring to detect opportunistic behavior. Concerning the association between observable characteristics and potentially opportunistic behavior, we find that males, employees younger than 50, those on short leaves, or without a history of illness are more likely to be found fit for work.

Intracrine sex steroid synthesis and signaling in human epidermal keratinocytes and dermal fibroblasts.

Peripheral intracrine sex steroid synthesis from adrenal precursors dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) and DHEA-sulfate has evolved in humans. We sought to establish if there are differences in intracrine, paracrine, and endocrine regulation of sex steroids by primary cultures of human skin epidermal keratinocytes and dermal fibroblasts. Microarray analysis identified multifunctional genes modulated by steroids, quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) mRNA expression, enzymatic assay aromatase activity, scratch assay cell migration, immunocytochemistry α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), and collagen gel fibroblast contraction. All steroidogenic components were present, although only keratinocytes expressed the organic anion organic anion transporter protein (OATP) 2B1 transporter. Both expressed the G-protein-coupled estrogen receptor (GPER1). Steroids modulated multifunctional genes, up-regulating genes important in repair and aging [angiopoietin-like 4 (ANGPTL4), chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 1 (CXCL1), lamin B1 (LMNB1), and thioredoxin interacting protein (TXNIP)]. DHEA-sulfate (DHEA-S), DHEA, and 17ß-estradiol stimulated keratinocyte and fibroblast migration at early (4 h) and late (24-48 h) time points, suggesting involvement of genomic and nongenomic signaling. Migration was blocked by aromatase and steroid sulfatase (STS) inhibitors confirming intracrine synthesis to estrogen. Testosterone had little effect, implying it is not an intermediate. Steroids stimulated fibroblast contraction but not α-SMA expression. Mechanical wounding reduced fibroblast aromatase activity but increased keratinocyte activity, amplifying the bioavailability of intracellular estrogen. Cultured fibroblasts and keratinocytes provide a biologically relevant model system to investigate the complex pathways of sex steroid intracrinology in human skin.

Is chest X-ray screening for lung cancer in smokers cost-effective? Evidence from a population-based study in Italy.

BACKGROUND: After implementation of the PREDICA annual chest X-ray (CXR) screening program in smokers in the general practice setting of Varese-Italy a significant reduction in lung cancer-specific mortality (18 %) was observed. The objective of this study covering July 1997 through December 2006 was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of this intervention. METHODS: We examined detailed information on lung cancer (LC) cases that occurred among smokers invited to be screened in the PREDICA study (Invitation-to-screening Group, n = 5815 subjects) to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from LC diagnosis until death. The control group consisted of 156 screening-eligible smokers from the same area, uninvited and unscreened, who developed LC and were treated by usual care. We calculated the incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) by comparing LC management in screening participants (n = 1244 subjects) and in the Invitation-to-screening group versus control group. RESULTS: The average number of QALYs since LC diagnosis was 1.7, 1.49 and 1.07, respectively, in screening participants, the invitation-to-screening group, and the control group. The average total cost (screening + management) per LC case was higher in screening participants (€17,516) and the Invitation-to-screening Group (€16,167) than in the control group (€15,503). Assuming a maximum willingness to pay of €30,000/QALY, we found that the intervention was cost-effective with high probability: 79 % for screening participation (screening participants vs. control group) and 95 % for invitation-to-screening (invitation-to-screening group vs. control group). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the PREDICA study, annual CXR screening of high-risk smokers in a general practice setting has high probability of being cost-effective with a maximum willingness to pay of €30,000/QALY.

Should current criteria for detecting and repairing arteriovenous fistula stenosis be reconsidered? Interim analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The vascular access guidelines recommend that arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) with access dysfunction and an access blood flow (Qa) <300-500 mL/min be referred for stenosis imaging and treatment. Significant (>50%) stenosis, however, may be detected in a well-functioning AVF with a Qa > 500 mL/min, too, but whether it is worth correcting or not remains to be seen. METHODS: In October 2006, we began an open randomized controlled trial enrolling patients with an AVF with subclinical stenosis and Qa > 500 mL/min, to see how elective stenosis repair [treatment group (TX)] influenced access failure (thrombosis or impending thrombosis requiring access revision), or loss and the related cost compared with stenosis correction according to the guidelines, i.e. after the onset of access dysfunction or a Qa < 400 mL/min [control group (C)]. An interim analysis was performed in July 2012, by which time the trial had enrolled 58 patients (30 C and 28 TX). RESULTS: TX led to a relative risk of 0.47 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.17-1.15] for access failure (P = 0.090), 0.37 [95% CI: 0.12-0.97] for thrombosis (P = 0.033) and 0.36 [95% CI: 0.09-0.99] for access loss (P = 0.041). In the setting of our study (in which all surgery was performed as in patient procedure) no significant differences in costs emerged between the two strategies. The mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for TX was €282 or €321 to avoid one episode of thrombosis or access loss, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our interim analysis showed that elective repair of subclinical stenosis in AVFs with Qa > 500 mL/min cost-effectively reduces the risk of thrombosis and access loss in comparison with the approach of the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) guidelines, raising the question of whether the currently recommended criteria for assessing and treating stenosis should be reconsidered.

Optimal decision rules for HTA under uncertainty: a wider, dynamic perspective.

We present a two-period framework, which combines real option and decision-theoretic approaches to health technology assessment under uncertainty. By viewing adoption, treatment and research decisions as a single economic project, we illustrate how their key dimensions affect optimal rules. We consider the results in relation to the existing literature and argue that developments in this direction could contribute substantially to efficiency gains in resource allocation.