Vitamin B6 catabolism and lung cancer risk: results from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3).

BACKGROUND: Increased vitamin B6 catabolism related to inflammation, as measured by the PAr index (the ratio of 4-pyridoxic acid over the sum of pyridoxal and pyridoxal-5'-phosphate), has been positively associated with lung cancer risk in two prospective European studies. However, the extent to which this association translates to more diverse populations is not known. MATERIALS AND METHODS: For this study, we included 5323 incident lung cancer cases and 5323 controls individually matched by age, sex, and smoking status within each of 20 prospective cohorts from the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium. Cohort-specific odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between PAr and lung cancer risk were calculated using conditional logistic regression and pooled using random-effects models. RESULTS: PAr was positively associated with lung cancer risk in a dose-response fashion. Comparing the fourth versus first quartiles of PAr resulted in an OR of 1.38 (95% CI: 1.19-1.59) for overall lung cancer risk. The association between PAr and lung cancer risk was most prominent in former smokers (OR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.36-2.10), men (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.28-2.00), and for cancers diagnosed within 3 years of blood draw (OR: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34-2.23). CONCLUSION: Based on pre-diagnostic data from 20 cohorts across 4 continents, this study confirms that increased vitamin B6 catabolism related to inflammation and immune activation is associated with a higher risk of developing lung cancer. Moreover, PAr may be a pre-diagnostic marker of lung cancer rather than a causal factor.

No association between circulating concentrations of vitamin D and risk of lung cancer: an analysis in 20 prospective studies in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3).

Background: There is observational evidence suggesting that high vitamin D concentrations may protect against lung cancer. To investigate this hypothesis in detail, we measured circulating vitamin D concentrations in prediagnostic blood from 20 cohorts participating in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). Patients and methods: The study included 5313 lung cancer cases and 5313 controls. Blood samples for the cases were collected, on average, 5 years before lung cancer diagnosis. Controls were individually matched to the cases by cohort, sex, age, race/ethnicity, date of blood collection, and smoking status in five categories. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to separately analyze 25-hydroxyvitamin D2 [25(OH)D2] and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D3] and their concentrations were combined to give an overall measure of 25(OH)D. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 25(OH)D as both continuous and categorical variables. Results: Overall, no apparent association between 25(OH)D and risk of lung cancer was observed (multivariable adjusted OR for a doubling in concentration: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.06). Similarly, we found no clear evidence of interaction by cohort, sex, age, smoking status, or histology. Conclusion: This study did not support an association between vitamin D concentrations and lung cancer risk.

Health risks and benefits from calcium and vitamin D supplementation: Women's Health Initiative clinical trial and cohort study.

SUMMARY: The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial randomly assigned 36,282 postmenopausal women in the U.S. to 1,000 mg elemental calcium carbonate plus 400 IU of vitamin D(3) daily or placebo, with average intervention period of 7.0 years. The trial was designed to test whether calcium plus vitamin D supplementation in a population in which the use of these supplements was widespread would reduce hip fracture, and secondarily, total fracture and colorectal cancer. INTRODUCTION: This study further examines the health benefits and risks of calcium and vitamin D supplementation using WHI data, with emphasis on fractures, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and total mortality. METHODS: WHI calcium and vitamin D randomized clinical trial (CT) data through the end of the intervention period were further analyzed with emphasis on treatment effects in relation to duration of supplementation, and these data were contrasted and combined with corresponding data from the WHI prospective observational study (OS). RESULTS: Among women not taking personal calcium or vitamin D supplements at baseline, the hazard ratio [HR] for hip fracture occurrence in the CT following 5 or more years of calcium and vitamin D supplementation versus placebo was 0.62 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.38-1.00). In combined analyses of CT and OS data, the corresponding HR was 0.65 (95 % CI, 0.44-0.98). Supplementation effects were not apparent on the risks of myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, total heart disease, stroke, overall cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, or total mortality, while evidence for a reduction in breast cancer risk and total invasive cancer risk among calcium plus vitamin D users was only suggestive. CONCLUSION: Though based primarily on a subset analysis, long-term use of calcium and vitamin D appears to confer a reduction that may be substantial in the risk of hip fracture among postmenopausal women. Other health benefits and risks of supplementation at doses considered, including an elevation in urinary tract stone formation, appear to be modest and approximately balanced.

Risk factor profiles of patients with sudden cardiac death and death from other cardiac causes: a report from the Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS).

Identification of patients at risk of sudden death is essential if optimal preventive treatment strategies are to be developed. In the Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS) Registry, 19,946 patients were analyzed to characterize baseline clinical, hemodynamic and angiographic features of patients dying from sudden cardiac death and to compare them with features of patients dying from other cardiac causes, of those dying from noncardiac causes and of survivors. Of the 11,843 medically treated patients, 1,621 died during a mean follow-up period of 5.0 years: death was sudden in 557 (34%), nonsudden but cardiac in 813 (50%) and noncardiac in 251 (16%). In 8,103 surgically treated patients, 824 deaths occurred during a mean follow-up period of 5.1 years: death was sudden in 204 (25%), nonsudden but cardiac in 390 (47%) and noncardiac in 230 (28%). In general, the patients (both medically and surgically treated) who died of cardiac causes, either suddenly or nonsuddenly, were similar to each other but significantly different from patients who either survived or died of noncardiac causes. Although patients with an increased risk of any type of cardiac death could be identified, there were no measures of angiographic or hemodynamic characteristics that were significantly different between patients with sudden cardiac death and those with nonsudden cardiac death. Identification of patients at high risk for sudden cardiac death will require approaches in addition to clinical, angiographic and hemodynamic assessment, such as electrophysiologic assessment or monitoring techniques to identify triggering mechanisms.

Should airline pilots be eligible to resume active flight status after coronary bypass surgery?: a CASS registry study.

Medical certification to return to work after coronary bypass surgery in occupations that carry a risk to public safety is controversial, particularly for airline pilots. To address this issue, 10,312 patients from the CASS registry who underwent coronary bypass surgery were studied and 2,326 men with clinical and postoperative characteristics similar to those of the average airline pilot who might apply to renew his license after surgery were selected. The 5 year probability of remaining free of an acute cardiac event, defined as acute coronary insufficiency, myocardial infarction or sudden death, was 0.92 +/- 0.01 (mean +/- SE) for the 1,207 men without previous myocardial infarction and 0.98 +/- 0.01 for the 122 men who never smoked and did not have a history of hypertension. Among the 1,119 men with a previous myocardial infarction, the probability of remaining free of acute cardiac events was 0.91 +/- 0.02 and 0.92 +/- 0.02 when left ventricular contraction score was 5 to 9 and 10 or greater, respectively. In this patient subgroup, mortality rate was similar to that of the age-matched U.S. male population when the left ventricular contraction score was 5 to 9 (4.0% versus 4.3%; p = NS) but significantly worse when the left ventricular contraction score was 10 or greater (7% versus 4.2%; p = 0.05). The data from this CASS registry study are pertinent to the question of operationally unlimited first-class medical certification of carefully selected airline pilots after coronary bypass surgery.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

'Resistance' to unrelated, DLA-nonidentical canine marrow grafts is unrestricted by the major histocompatibility complex.

Dogs undergoing rejection of unrelated, dog leukocyte antigen (DLA)-nonidentical marrow grafts show an increase in mononuclear cell counts in the peripheral blood at 1 week after transplant. Cells are of host origin and express phenotypic and morphologic characteristics of large granular lymphocytes (LGLs). LGLs from rejecting dogs suppress in vitro growth of donor marrow colony-forming units-granulocyte/macrophage (CFU-GM) and have natural killer (NK) cell activity. The current study tested whether the marrow-suppressive activity of LGLs obtained at the time of marrow graft rejection was major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-restricted. Five dogs were in the process of rejecting their DLA-nonidentical unrelated marrow grafts after conditioning with 9.2 Gy total-body irradiation (TBI). At the time of rejection, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were harvested. PBMC were co-cultured with marrow obtained from the original marrow transplant donor and from other unrelated dogs that were either DLA-identical or -nonidentical with the marrow donor. A statistically significant reduction of marrow donor CFU-GM was seen when compared to results with autologous effector PBMC from the marrow donor. The number of colonies with recipient effector PBMC ranged from 8 to 75% (median 29%). No suppression was seen with PBMC effectors from unrelated DLA-identical or DLA-nonidentical dogs. Similarly, significant reductions in the number of CFU-GM compared to autologous controls were seen with effector PBMC from marrow recipients and marrow target cells, both from unrelated dogs that were phenotypically DLA-identical or -nonidentical with the marrow donor. The number of colonies ranged from 6 to 68% (median 29%) and 1 to 102% (median 20%), respectively. NK activity was present at low levels in all recipients, while specific alloantigen-primed cytotoxic T cell killing by cells obtained from the five recipients yielded cytolysis of donor PBMC in only one case, suggesting that the marrow-suppressive activity was NK cell-mediated. In conclusion, PBMC from canine marrow transplant recipients undergoing rejection of DLA-nonidentical marrow grafts suppress in vitro CFU-GM growth of marrow donor cells, and this suppression is not MHC-restricted.

Oral dapsone versus nebulized pentamidine for Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia prophylaxis: an open randomized prospective trial to assess efficacy and haematological toxicity.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the haematological toxicity and efficacy of oral dapsone and nebulized pentamidine as Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) prophylaxis in HIV-infected patients receiving zidovudine. DESIGN: Randomized, prospective. SETTING: Infectious diseases hospital with participants drawn from both inpatient and outpatient departments. PATIENTS: Those eligible were starting treatment with zidovudine, needed PCP prophylaxis (CD4+ count < 200 x 10(6)/l or < 20% total lymphocyte count or previous episode of PCP), and had a normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase screen. Of the 98 patients enrolled, 96 returned for follow-up. INTERVENTIONS: Fifty patients received dapsone (100mg orally twice weekly) and 46 pentamidine (400 mg nebulized monthly). Follow-up was for a median of 18 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The development of PCP, transfusion requirements, monthly complete blood cell counts, serious adverse reactions and death were recorded. RESULTS: Nine (18%) dapsone and eight (17%) pentamidine recipients developed PCP. There was no significant difference in number of patients transfused (12 dapsone and nine pentamidine recipients) or transfusion-free survival. At exit from the study, mean haemoglobin (11.7 versus 12.4 g/dl), white blood cell (3.9 versus 3.7 x 10(9)/l) and platelet (195 versus 184 x 10(9)/l) counts did not differ for the dapsone and pentamidine arms, respectively. There was no significant difference in the occurrence of serious adverse reactions (six in the dapsone and eight in the pentamidine arm). CONCLUSIONS: Dapsone can be recommended in preference to pentamidine as PCP prophylaxis on the basis of equivalent efficacy, absence of excessive haematological toxicity, low cost and ease of administration.

Biological variability of serum and urinary N-telopeptides of type I collagen in postmenopausal women.

Measurement of N-telopeptides of type I bone collagen (NTX) provides a specific indicator of the current level of bone resorption. The biological intrasubject variability of NTX in urine and serum was studied in 277 postmenopausal women, mean age, 63.6 years +/- 10.2 (+/-SD) years. Second-morning void urine and serum specimens were collected at baseline and for two consecutive days to determine short-term variability (% CV). Long-term variability was determined by comparing NTX results at baseline and two consecutive months. Subjects were instructed to maintain current diet, lifestyle, and medications during the study. The median short-term %CV was 13.1% for urine NTX. This compared with 6.3% for serum NTX. Calculation of long-term %CV showed similar trends, with the %CV for NTX measured in serum (7.5%) lower than when measured in urine (15.6%). Using the least significant change (LSC) calculation, our data show that to be 90% confident that a decrease in NTX after initiation of antiresorptive therapy in an individual patient is not caused by variability alone, a 31 % decrease in urine NTX and a 14% decrease in serum NTX is required. As reported changes in NTX caused by antiresorptive therapy are greater than these calculations; our results support the use of either specimen to measure NTX to monitor the effect of therapy.

Collagen N-telopeptide excretion in men: the effects of age and intrasubject variability.

Biochemical markers of bone resorption are useful for evaluating metabolic bone diseases. A three-center study was performed in 253 men, 21-86 yr of age, to determine the normal range of urinary N-telopeptide of type I collagen (NTX/creatinine) in a nonfasting, second void, morning specimen, to define the biological variability and to examine the relationship between NTX/creatinine and age. Men with disorders or taking medications known to alter bone turnover, or with a serum creatinine level greater than 2 mg/dL were excluded. Results are expressed as nanomoles of bone collagen equivalents (BCE) per mmol creatinine. In a subset of individuals over age 30 yr, additional second void morning urine specimens were obtained at 2, 3, and 4 days (short term study) and at 2, 3, and 4 months (long term study) after the first specimen. After collection, samples were shipped to one laboratory for analysis. Multiple samples from the same subject were analyzed in separate assays. It was found that urinary NTX/ creatinine was significantly higher in 45 men, aged 21-30 yr, than in 206 men, aged 31-86 yr (48 +/- 22 vs. 33 +/- 15 nmol/L BCE/mmol/L creatinine; P < 0.00001). Values did not otherwise change with age. The range of values in men aged 21-30 yr was 4-92 nmol/L BCE/mmol/L creatinine. The range for men over age 30 yr was 3- 63 nmol/L BCE/mmol/L creatinine, essentially the same as that previously reported for premenopausal women. The coefficient of variation was determined in each individual for the short term (n = 36) and long term studies (n = 35) and averaged 18% and 19%, respectively. There was no correlation between short term and long term coefficient of variations. In summary, urinary NTX/creatinine is higher in men aged 21-30 yr than in men over age 30 yr and may reflect continued skeletal maturation. Intrasubject variability of urinary NTX/creatinine in short term and long term studies has been defined for clinical purposes.

FK-506 and methotrexate prevent graft-versus-host disease in dogs given 9.2 Gy total body irradiation and marrow grafts from unrelated dog leukocyte antigen-nonidentical donors.

FK-506 was evaluated either alone or combined with methotrexate (MTX) for prevention of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) in dogs given 9.2 Gy total body irradiation and dog leukocyte antigen-nonidentical unrelated marrow grafts. Studies with marrow autografts showed gut toxicity and weight loss to be major side effects of FK-506. There was no hematopoietic toxicity with FK-506. In an initial allograft study, 5 dogs were given FK-506 intramuscularly at 0.3 mg/kg/day from days 0 to 8 and then orally at 0.5 mg/kg/day. All 5 died, 3 with intussusception most likely due to FK-506 toxicity, 1 with graft failure, and 1 with GVHD. Subsequently, the FK-506 dose was reduced and these drug schedules were used: FK-506 days 0-8 at 0.15 mg/kg/day i.m. and then orally at 0.5 mg/kg/day until day 90, with or without MTX intravenously at 0.4 mg/kg days 1, 3, 6, and 11. Twenty allografts were done, 10 with FK-506 alone, and 10 with MTX/FK-506. Results were compared with those in concurrent and historical controls given either no immunosuppression (n = 64), MTX (n = 114), CsA (n = 15), or MTX/CsA (n = 17). Five of 20 current dogs died with intussusception, too early to be evaluated for GVHD. The 10 dogs given FK-506 alone survived significantly better than those not given immunosuppression but not differently from those given short-term MTX or CsA alone. Three died from toxicity, 2 with graft failure, and 4 with GVHD. Only 1 dog became a long-term survivor, and this dog inadvertently received a single dose of MTX on day 7. Two of 10 dogs given MTX/FK-506 died from toxicity, 1 died with graft failure, 2 died with GVHD, and 5 became long-term survivors, a result that is significantly better than seen with either drug alone and similar to that seen with MTX/CsA. Four of the 5 survivors had no clinical GVHD. FK-506 blood levels were 15-35 ng/ml between days 8 and 15, when gut toxicity was most severe. Thereafter, levels were approximately 5 ng/ml. In conclusion, FK-506 prolonged survival of recipients of dog leukocyte antigen-nonidentical unrelated marrow grafts. When FK-506 was combined with MTX, graft-host tolerance was induced in 50% of dogs, even though FK-506 was stopped on day 90.

Features of cardiac arrest episodes with and without acute myocardial infarction in the Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS).

Angiographic evidence of coronary artery disease was present in 16,002 patients in the Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS) registry. Of these patients, 551 had a history of cardiac arrest before enrollment angiography. Cardiac arrest was a complication of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in 372 patients (68%). Electrocardiographic documentation of the responsible rhythm was available in 283 patients. Ventricular fibrillation (VF) was present in 112 (60%), ventricular tachycardia (VT) in 41 (22%) and both VT and VF in 26 (14%) patients. Stepwise linear discriminant analysis comparing the 551 cardiac arrest patients with the other 15,451 patients selected left ventricular wall motion score (F = 265), use of digitalis (F = 71), impaired blood supply to any segment (F = 16) and particularly to the anterior wall (F = 11) as discriminating variables associated with cardiac arrest. Patients with cardiac arrest occurring as a complication of AMI were younger (F = 12), had greater impairment of coronary blood supply (F = 7) and were more likely to be on a cholesterol-lowering diet (F = 16) than were patients with arrest remote from infarction. Comparison of patients with VT versus those with VF showed a positive association of VT with age (F = 8), a trend toward worse left ventricular function and presence of a left ventricular aneurysm, but no difference in severity and collateralization of coronary artery disease. It is concluded that cardiac arrest is related to the extent of myocardial damage.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Design of comparative clinical studies of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty using estimates from the Coronary Artery Surgery Study.

The design of a prospective randomized trial of PTCA is discussed. It is suggested that patients with proximal subtotal occlusion of 1 or more vessels may be candidates for such a trial. Medical therapy as a control of 1-vessel CAD, medical or surgical therapy as a control for 2-vessel CAD (with 1 dilatable vessel) cases and surgical therapy as a control for 3-vessel CAD are most congruent with current practice. Possible criteria for comparison of PTCA with a control therapy include vital status, angina with daily activities, angina upon maximal exercise testing, MI, hospitalization, work status, cost, follow-up angiographic assessment, follow-up radionuclide ventriculography, measurement of immediate anatomic or hemodynamic change during initial treatment and quality-of-life indexes. These 10 measures are evaluated with respect to 9 desirable attributes for outcome criteria: the importance of the quantity measured, reproducibility, accuracy, low influence of investigator bias, low influence of subject bias, the measure is inexpensive and easy to obtain, sufficient occurrence to detect important differences, convenient to patients and measuring impairment due to disease. Examination of data from the Coronary Artery Surgery Study suggests that (1) a trial based on mortality alone is not feasible (because of a needed sample size in the thousands); (2) a trial using a combined death and/or MI end point would need approximately 1,000 cases even for patients with multivessel CAD; (3) approximately 950 patients would be needed in a trial to evaluate return to work (within 10%); (4) a trial based on pain relief (within 15% of the control group) would need 500 subjects.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Rationale and design of the Arterial Disease Multiple Intervention Trial (ADMIT) pilot study.

The primary objectives of the pilot study were to: (1) evaluate the feasibility of recruiting patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD); (2) measure the efficacy and safety of high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-raising treatment, low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-lowering therapy, antioxidant therapy, antithrombotic therapy, and their combinations; and (3) assess adherence to a complex multiple drug regimen. Secondary objectives included measurement of the effect of the interventions on prespecified biochemical markers, maintenance of therapy masking (in particular with niacin), and measurement of the intervention's impact on functional status and on quality of life. To date, no secondary prevention trial has been conducted specifically among patients with PAD. Intermittent claudication affects about 0.5% to 1.0% of persons aged >35 years. There is a striking increase in incidence of PAD with age, particularly among those aged >50 years in both sexes, although men are twice as likely as women to develop PAD. The Arterial Disease Multiple Intervention Trial was a double-blind randomized pilot trial of 468 participants with documented PAD. A 2 x 2 x 2 factorial design was used to evaluate the effect of 3 interventions. The pilot incorporated several major novel design features: first, the use of a simple noninvasive method (measurement of ankle brachial index) to identify a population with either symptomatic or asymptomatic PAD; and second, a lipid modifying strategy to increase HDL with nicotinic acid in the intervention group while lowering LDL levels equally with an hydroxymethylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase inhibitor as needed in the intervention and control group. Two other arms, the antioxidant arm (consisting of beta-carotene and vitamins E and C) and the antithrombotic arm (using warfarin) were also added. Adherence to therapy was measured by pill count, and success in treatment was measured by the proportion of values in target range for HDL, LDL, and the international normalized ratio.

Compliance to multiple interventions in a high risk population.

PURPOSE: Assess compliance with study medications and examine reasons for noncompliance. Individuals with peripheral arterial disease present the clinician with a unique combination of symptoms and therapeutic needs; the treatment of this population has not been adequately studied. METHODS: The Arterial Disease Multiple Intervention Trial was a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial that randomized 468 participants to a combination of antioxidants, niacin and warfarin or matching placebos. Men and women (mean age 65 yrs) with peripheral arterial disease and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) < 190 mg/dl were enrolled and followed for one year. Compliance to the study medications was measured by pill count for each medication. An overall measure of compliance was determined by combining pill counts from all study visits. RESULTS: Mean overall pill counts ranged from 88 to 94% in the eight treatment groups. No statistically significant differences were found in mean pill counts over time or between active and placebo groups. History of coronary artery disease and number of follow-up visits were associated with higher overall pill counts while low compliance during screening was associated with lower counts during follow-up. Participants with an overall mean pill count < 80% had more adverse events compared to those with a higher count. Side effects were reported as the reason for missing pills significantly more often in the active versus placebo niacin group. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with peripheral arterial disease were able to comply with the complex drug regimen. The ability of this drug combination to reduce cardiovascular events and improve quality of life warrants study.

Risk factors for kidney stones in older women in the southern United States.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of kidney stones is disproportionate in the southern region of the United States. Risk factors for the occurrence of kidney stones in this geographic area have not been reported previously. METHODS: The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) is an ongoing multicenter clinical investigation of strategies for the prevention of common causes of morbidity and mortality among postmenopausal women. A case-control ancillary study was conducted on 27,410 (white or black) women enrolled in the 9 southern WHI clinical centers. There were 1,179 cases (4.3%) of kidney stones at the baseline evaluation. Risk factors for stone formation were assessed in cases versus age- and race-matched control subjects. RESULTS: Risk factors (univariate) included low dietary potassium (2,404 versus 2,500 mg/day, P = 0.006), magnesium (243 versus 253 mg/day, P = 0.003) and oxalate (330 versus 345 mg/day, P = 0.02) intake, as well as increased body mass index (28.5 versus 27.7 kg/m2, P = 0.001) and a history of hypertension (42% versus 34%, P = 0.001). A slightly lower dietary calcium intake (683 versus 711 mg/day, P = 0.04) was noted in case subjects versus control subjects, but interpretation was confounded by the study of prevalent rather than incident cases. Supplemental calcium intake >500 mg/day was inversely associated with stone occurrence. CONCLUSION: Multivariate risk factors for the occurrence of kidney stones in postmenopausal women include a history of hypertension, a low dietary intake of magnesium, and low use of calcium supplements.

The effect of clinical characteristics on the comparison of medical and surgical therapy in the Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS) and the Veterans Administration Cooperative trial.

The CASS randomized trial was compared with the Veterans Administration (VA) randomized study of coronary bypass surgery with respect to the influence of clinical characteristics on the comparison of medical and surgical therapy. With regard to clinical baseline characteristics, the CASS population was overall at lower risk than the VA population. Average percent survival for years 1 through 6 were greater in the CASS than in the VA study for patients in both the medical and surgical groups. In the VA population, a multivariate risk index was developed with the use of presence or absence of New York Heart Association functional class III or IV, history of hypertension, history of myocardial infarction, and ST depression on the resting electrocardiogram. Low-, middle-, and high-risk terciles in the VA study population were determined based on this index. In the low-risk tercile, VA patients treated medically had a greater percent survival at 6 years than those treated surgically. In the high-risk tercile, VA patients treated surgically had markedly improved survival compared with those treated medically. These results were not replicated by the CASS study. In CASS, there were no significant differences between patients assigned to medical and surgical treatment within the terciles. Other noninvasive risk indexes were explored in CASS, but no subgroups defined solely by clinical features could be found wherein patients assigned to medical and surgical therapy were significantly different. Basic differences in the populations sampled are the most probable reason for the different results in the CASS and VA trials.

Summarizing data on survival, relapse, and chronic graft-versus-host disease after bone marrow transplantation: motivation for and description of new methods.

Kaplan-Meier curves are frequently used to summarize survival, relapse, and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) data in the bone marrow transplant setting. Some fundamental problems with the use of Kaplan-Meier curves for the summary of relapse and GVHD are described. Alternatively, the use of simple probability and conditional probability curves for summarizing relapse incidence and transplant-related mortality is illustrated with previously published data from a randomized clinical trial. Prevalence curves provide an appropriate alternative for the summary of a transient condition such as chronic GVHD. When combined with Kaplan-Meier curves for survival and/or relapse-free survival, these methods provide a more accurate and comprehensive summary of the various marrow transplant outcomes. These methods of display are also applicable to other settings where more than one type of treatment failure can occur and where follow-up time may be variable.

Simulation as a design tool for phase I/II clinical trials: an example from bone marrow transplantation.

We discuss the design and analysis of a proposed phase I/II clinical trial in bone marrow transplantation whereby dose modifications that decrease the risk of one complication increase the risk of another. Trials of this type are carried out to determine whether a dose can be found that balances the risks of each complication. Three different scenarios describing potential relationships between each risk and the treatment dose are postulated. The scenarios encompass both favorable situations in which several acceptable doses exist and unfavorable situations in which no acceptable dose exists. The operating characteristics of three sequentially developed trial designs were examined by simulation under each dose-response scenario. The first design was derived from seemingly reasonable rules, but simulations showed that performance fell far short of what was desired, thus motivating modifications. Subsequent designs showed improved performance characteristics compared to the original design. Without close examination of the operating characteristics, the original design would have been implemented, leading to high risk of an erroneous conclusion.

Use of a urine enzyme immunoassay as a diagnostic tool for Chlamydia trachomatis urethritis in men.

We collected first-voided urine specimens from 659 males attending a sexually transmitted disease clinic and performed both enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for detection of chlamydial antigen and leukocyte esterase testing on these urine samples. The overall prevalence of chlamydial urethritis in the study population as determined by culture of urethral swabs was 11%. However, 46% of all men in the study had no symptoms of urethritis. Compared with urethral cultures for chlamydiae, the urine EIA had a sensitivity of 42% and a specificity of 99%. The sensitivity of the EIA strongly correlated with the amount of antigen present in culture as assessed by numbers of inclusion-forming units. The sensitivity of the leukocyte esterase test compared with that of chlamydia culture was 88%. We conclude that in this population of men, which included many patients without symptoms of urethritis, the urine EIA was a relatively insensitive means of screening for chlamydial infection.