Lonely Individuals Process the World in Idiosyncratic Ways.

Loneliness is detrimental to well-being and is often accompanied by self-reported feelings of not being understood by other people. What contributes to such feelings in lonely people? We used functional MRI of 66 first-year university students to unobtrusively measure the relative alignment of people's mental processing of naturalistic stimuli and tested whether lonely people actually process the world in idiosyncratic ways. We found evidence for such idiosyncrasy: Lonely individuals' neural responses were dissimilar to those of their peers, particularly in regions of the default-mode network in which similar responses have been associated with shared perspectives and subjective understanding. These relationships persisted when we controlled for demographic similarities, objective social isolation, and individuals' friendships with each other. Our findings raise the possibility that being surrounded by people who see the world differently from oneself, even if one is friends with them, may be a risk factor for loneliness.

Networks of necessity: Simulating COVID-19 mitigation strategies for disabled people and their caregivers.

A major strategy to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is the limiting of in-person contacts. However, limiting contacts is impractical or impossible for the many disabled people who do not live in care facilities but still require caregivers to assist them with activities of daily living. We seek to determine which interventions can best prevent infections of disabled people and their caregivers. To accomplish this, we simulate COVID-19 transmission with a compartmental model that includes susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, symptomatically ill, hospitalized, and removed/recovered individuals. The networks on which we simulate disease spread incorporate heterogeneity in the risk levels of different types of interactions, time-dependent lockdown and reopening measures, and interaction distributions for four different groups (caregivers, disabled people, essential workers, and the general population). Of these groups, we find that the probability of becoming infected is largest for caregivers and second largest for disabled people. Consistent with this finding, our analysis of network structure illustrates that caregivers have the largest modal eigenvector centrality of the four groups. We find that two interventions-contact-limiting by all groups and mask-wearing by disabled people and caregivers-most reduce the number of infections in disabled and caregiver populations. We also test which group of people spreads COVID-19 most readily by seeding infections in a subset of each group and comparing the total number of infections as the disease spreads. We find that caregivers are the most potent spreaders of COVID-19, particularly to other caregivers and to disabled people. We test where to use limited infection-blocking vaccine doses most effectively and find that (1) vaccinating caregivers better protects disabled people from infection than vaccinating the general population or essential workers and that (2) vaccinating caregivers protects disabled people from infection about as effectively as vaccinating disabled people themselves. Our results highlight the potential effectiveness of mask-wearing, contact-limiting throughout society, and strategic vaccination for limiting the exposure of disabled people and their caregivers to COVID-19.

Low-dimensional behavior of a Kuramoto model with inertia and Hebbian learning.

We study low-dimensional dynamics in a Kuramoto model with inertia and Hebbian learning. In this model, the coupling strength between oscillators depends on the phase differences between the oscillators and changes according to a Hebbian learning rule. We analyze the special case of two coupled oscillators, which yields a five-dimensional dynamical system that decouples into a two-dimensional longitudinal system and a three-dimensional transverse system. We readily write an exact solution of the longitudinal system, and we then focus our attention on the transverse system. We classify the stability of the transverse system's equilibrium points using linear stability analysis. We show that the transverse system is dissipative and that all of its trajectories are eventually confined to a bounded region. We compute Lyapunov exponents to infer the transverse system's possible limiting behaviors, and we demarcate the parameter regions of three qualitatively different behaviors. Using insights from our analysis of the low-dimensional dynamics, we examine the original high-dimensional system in a situation in which we draw the intrinsic frequencies of the oscillators from Gaussian distributions with different variances.

Recurrence recovery in heterogeneous Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou systems.

The computational investigation of Fermi, Pasta, Ulam, and Tsingou (FPUT) of arrays of nonlinearly coupled oscillators has led to a wealth of studies in nonlinear dynamics. Most studies of oscillator arrays have considered homogeneous oscillators, even though there are inherent heterogeneities between individual oscillators in real-world arrays. Well-known FPUT phenomena, such as energy recurrence, can break down in such heterogeneous systems. In this paper, we present an approach-the use of structured heterogeneities-to recover recurrence in FPUT systems in the presence of oscillator heterogeneities. We examine oscillator variabilities in FPUT systems with cubic nonlinearities, and we demonstrate that centrosymmetry in oscillator arrays may be an important source of recurrence.

Forecasting failure locations in 2-dimensional disordered lattices.

Forecasting fracture locations in a progressively failing disordered structure is of paramount importance when considering structural materials. We explore this issue for gradual deterioration via beam breakage of 2-dimensional (2D) disordered lattices, which we represent as networks, for various values of mean degree. We study experimental samples with geometric structures that we construct based on observed contact networks in 2D granular media. We calculate geodesic edge betweenness centrality, which helps quantify which edges are on many shortest paths in a network, to forecast the failure locations. We demonstrate for the tested samples that, for a variety of failure behaviors, failures occur predominantly at locations that have larger geodesic edge betweenness values than the mean one in the structure. Because only a small fraction of edges have values above the mean, this is a relevant diagnostic to assess failure locations. Our results demonstrate that one can consider only specific parts of a system as likely failure locations and that, with reasonable success, one can assess possible failure locations of a structure without needing to study its detailed energetic states.

Dominance, sharing, and assessment in an iterated Hawk-Dove game.

Animals use a wide variety of strategies to reduce or avoid aggression in conflicts over resources. These strategies range from sharing resources without outward signs of conflict to the development of dominance hierarchies, in which initial fighting is followed by the submission of subordinates. Although models have been developed to analyse specific strategies for resolving conflicts over resources, little work has focused on trying to understand why particular strategies are more likely to arise in certain situations. In this paper, we use a model based on an iterated Hawk-Dove game to analyse how resource holding potentials (RHPs) and other factors affect whether sharing, dominance relationships, or other behaviours are evolutionarily stable. We find through extensive numerical simulations that sharing is stable only when the cost of fighting is low and the animals in a contest have similar RHPs, whereas dominance relationships are stable in most other situations. We also explore what happens when animals are unable to assess each other's RHPs without fighting, and we compare a range of strategies for contestants using simulations. We find (1) that the most successful strategies involve a limited period of assessment followed by a stable relationship in which fights are avoided and (2) that the duration of assessment depends both on the costliness of fighting and on the difference between the animals' RHPs. Along with our direct work on modelling and simulations, we develop extensive software to facilitate further testing. It is available at https://bitbucket.org/CameronLHall/dominancesharingassessmentmatlab/.

Inferring parameters of prey switching in a 1 predator-2 prey plankton system with a linear preference tradeoff.

We construct two ordinary-differential-equation models of a predator feeding adaptively on two prey types, and we evaluate the models' ability to fit data on freshwater plankton. We model the predator's switch from one prey to the other in two different ways: (i) smooth switching using a hyperbolic tangent function; and (ii) by incorporating a parameter that changes abruptly across the switching boundary as a system variable that is coupled to the population dynamics. We conduct linear stability analyses, use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) combined with a population Monte Carlo (PMC) method to fit model parameters, and compare model results quantitatively to data for ciliate predators and their two algal prey groups collected from Lake Constance on the German-Swiss-Austrian border. We show that the two models fit the data well when the smooth transition is steep, supporting the simplifying assumption of a discontinuous prey-switching behavior for this scenario. We thus conclude that prey switching is a possible mechanistic explanation for the observed ciliate-algae dynamics in Lake Constance in spring, but that these data cannot distinguish between the details of prey switching that are encoded in these different models.

Quasiperiodic granular chains and Hofstadter butterflies.

We study quasiperiodicity-induced localization of waves in strongly precompressed granular chains. We propose three different set-ups, inspired by the Aubry-André (AA) model, of quasiperiodic chains; and we use these models to compare the effects of on-site and off-site quasiperiodicity in nonlinear lattices. When there is purely on-site quasiperiodicity, which we implement in two different ways, we show for a chain of spherical particles that there is a localization transition (as in the original AA model). However, we observe no localization transition in a chain of cylindrical particles in which we incorporate quasiperiodicity in the distribution of contact angles between adjacent cylinders by making the angle periodicity incommensurate with that of the chain. For each of our three models, we compute the Hofstadter spectrum and the associated Minkowski-Bouligand fractal dimension, and we demonstrate that the fractal dimension decreases as one approaches the localization transition (when it exists). We also show, using the chain of cylinders as an example, how to recover the Hofstadter spectrum from the system dynamics. Finally, in a suite of numerical computations, we demonstrate localization and also that there exist regimes of ballistic, superdiffusive, diffusive and subdiffusive transport. Our models provide a flexible set of systems to study quasiperiodicity-induced analogues of Anderson phenomena in granular chains that one can tune controllably from weakly to strongly nonlinear regimes.This article is part of the theme issue 'Nonlinear energy transfer in dynamical and acoustical systems'.

Complex contagions with timers.

There has been a great deal of effort to try to model social influence-including the spread of behavior, norms, and ideas-on networks. Most models of social influence tend to assume that individuals react to changes in the states of their neighbors without any time delay, but this is often not true in social contexts, where (for various reasons) different agents can have different response times. To examine such situations, we introduce the idea of a timer into threshold models of social influence. The presence of timers on nodes delays adoptions-i.e., changes of state-by the agents, which in turn delays the adoptions of their neighbors. With a homogeneously-distributed timer, in which all nodes have the same amount of delay, the adoption order of nodes remains the same. However, heterogeneously-distributed timers can change the adoption order of nodes and hence the "adoption paths" through which state changes spread in a network. Using a threshold model of social contagions, we illustrate that heterogeneous timers can either accelerate or decelerate the spread of adoptions compared to an analogous situation with homogeneous timers, and we investigate the relationship of such acceleration or deceleration with respect to the timer distribution and network structure. We derive an analytical approximation for the temporal evolution of the fraction of adopters by modifying a pair approximation for the Watts threshold model, and we find good agreement with numerical simulations. We also examine our new timer model on networks constructed from empirical data.

Synergistic effects in threshold models on networks.

Network structure can have a significant impact on the propagation of diseases, memes, and information on social networks. Different types of spreading processes (and other dynamical processes) are affected by network architecture in different ways, and it is important to develop tractable models of spreading processes on networks to explore such issues. In this paper, we incorporate the idea of synergy into a two-state ("active" or "passive") threshold model of social influence on networks. Our model's update rule is deterministic, and the influence of each meme-carrying (i.e., active) neighbor can-depending on a parameter-either be enhanced or inhibited by an amount that depends on the number of active neighbors of a node. Such a synergistic system models social behavior in which the willingness to adopt either accelerates or saturates in a way that depends on the number of neighbors who have adopted that behavior. We illustrate that our model's synergy parameter has a crucial effect on system dynamics, as it determines whether degree-k nodes are possible or impossible to activate. We simulate synergistic meme spreading on both random-graph models and networks constructed from empirical data. Using a heterogeneous mean-field approximation, which we derive under the assumption that a network is locally tree-like, we are able to determine which synergy-parameter values allow degree-k nodes to be activated for many networks and for a broad family of synergistic models.

A simple generative model of collective online behavior.

Human activities increasingly take place in online environments, providing novel opportunities for relating individual behaviors to population-level outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a simple generative model for the collective behavior of millions of social networking site users who are deciding between different software applications. Our model incorporates two distinct mechanisms: one is associated with recent decisions of users, and the other reflects the cumulative popularity of each application. Importantly, although various combinations of the two mechanisms yield long-time behavior that is consistent with data, the only models that reproduce the observed temporal dynamics are those that strongly emphasize the recent popularity of applications over their cumulative popularity. This demonstrates--even when using purely observational data without experimental design--that temporal data-driven modeling can effectively distinguish between competing microscopic mechanisms, allowing us to uncover previously unidentified aspects of collective online behavior.

Modeling the lowest-cost splitting of a herd of cows by optimizing a cost function.

Animals live in groups to defend against predation and to obtain food. However, for some animals-especially ones that spend long periods of time feeding-there are costs if a group chooses to move on before their nutritional needs are satisfied. If the conflict between feeding and keeping up with a group becomes too large, it may be advantageous for some groups of animals to split into subgroups with similar nutritional needs. We model the costs and benefits of splitting in a herd of cows using a cost function that quantifies individual variation in hunger, desire to lie down, and predation risk. We model the costs associated with hunger and lying desire as the standard deviations of individuals within a group, and we model predation risk as an inverse exponential function of the group size. We minimize the cost function over all plausible groups that can arise from a given herd and study the dynamics of group splitting. We examine how the cow dynamics and cost function depend on the parameters in the model and consider two biologically-motivated examples: (1) group switching and group fission in a herd of relatively homogeneous cows, and (2) a herd with an equal number of adult males (larger animals) and adult females (smaller animals).

Persistent homology of time-dependent functional networks constructed from coupled time series.

We use topological data analysis to study "functional networks" that we construct from time-series data from both experimental and synthetic sources. We use persistent homology with a weight rank clique filtration to gain insights into these functional networks, and we use persistence landscapes to interpret our results. Our first example uses time-series output from networks of coupled Kuramoto oscillators. Our second example consists of biological data in the form of functional magnetic resonance imaging data that were acquired from human subjects during a simple motor-learning task in which subjects were monitored for three days during a five-day period. With these examples, we demonstrate that (1) using persistent homology to study functional networks provides fascinating insights into their properties and (2) the position of the features in a filtration can sometimes play a more vital role than persistence in the interpretation of topological features, even though conventionally the latter is used to distinguish between signal and noise. We find that persistent homology can detect differences in synchronization patterns in our data sets over time, giving insight both on changes in community structure in the networks and on increased synchronization between brain regions that form loops in a functional network during motor learning. For the motor-learning data, persistence landscapes also reveal that on average the majority of changes in the network loops take place on the second of the three days of the learning process.

EIGENVECTOR-BASED CENTRALITY MEASURES FOR TEMPORAL NETWORKS.

Numerous centrality measures have been developed to quantify the importances of nodes in time-independent networks, and many of them can be expressed as the leading eigenvector of some matrix. With the increasing availability of network data that changes in time, it is important to extend such eigenvector-based centrality measures to time-dependent networks. In this paper, we introduce a principled generalization of network centrality measures that is valid for any eigenvector-based centrality. We consider a temporal network with N nodes as a sequence of T layers that describe the network during different time windows, and we couple centrality matrices for the layers into a supra-centrality matrix of size NT × NT whose dominant eigenvector gives the centrality of each node i at each time t. We refer to this eigenvector and its components as a joint centrality, as it reflects the importances of both the node i and the time layer t. We also introduce the concepts of marginal and conditional centralities, which facilitate the study of centrality trajectories over time. We find that the strength of coupling between layers is important for determining multiscale properties of centrality, such as localization phenomena and the time scale of centrality changes. In the strong-coupling regime, we derive expressions for time-averaged centralities, which are given by the zeroth-order terms of a singular perturbation expansion. We also study first-order terms to obtain first-order-mover scores, which concisely describe the magnitude of nodes' centrality changes over time. As examples, we apply our method to three empirical temporal networks: the United States Ph.D. exchange in mathematics, costarring relationships among top-billed actors during the Golden Age of Hollywood, and citations of decisions from the United States Supreme Court.

Extraction of force-chain network architecture in granular materials using community detection.

Force chains form heterogeneous physical structures that can constrain the mechanical stability and acoustic transmission of granular media. However, despite their relevance for predicting bulk properties of materials, there is no agreement on a quantitative description of force chains. Consequently, it is difficult to compare the force-chain structures in different materials or experimental conditions. To address this challenge, we treat granular materials as spatially-embedded networks in which the nodes (particles) are connected by weighted edges that represent contact forces. We use techniques from community detection, which is a type of clustering, to find sets of closely connected particles. By using a geographical null model that is constrained by the particles' contact network, we extract chain-like structures that are reminiscent of force chains. We propose three diagnostics to measure these chain-like structures, and we demonstrate the utility of these diagnostics for identifying and characterizing classes of force-chain network architectures in various materials. To illustrate our methods, we describe how force-chain architecture depends on pressure for two very different types of packings: (1) ones derived from laboratory experiments and (2) ones derived from idealized, numerically-generated frictionless packings. By resolving individual force chains, we quantify statistical properties of force-chain shape and strength, which are potentially crucial diagnostics of bulk properties (including material stability). These methods facilitate quantitative comparisons between different particulate systems, regardless of whether they are measured experimentally or numerically.

Task-based core-periphery organization of human brain dynamics.

As a person learns a new skill, distinct synapses, brain regions, and circuits are engaged and change over time. In this paper, we develop methods to examine patterns of correlated activity across a large set of brain regions. Our goal is to identify properties that enable robust learning of a motor skill. We measure brain activity during motor sequencing and characterize network properties based on coherent activity between brain regions. Using recently developed algorithms to detect time-evolving communities, we find that the complex reconfiguration patterns of the brain's putative functional modules that control learning can be described parsimoniously by the combined presence of a relatively stiff temporal core that is composed primarily of sensorimotor and visual regions whose connectivity changes little in time and a flexible temporal periphery that is composed primarily of multimodal association regions whose connectivity changes frequently. The separation between temporal core and periphery changes over the course of training and, importantly, is a good predictor of individual differences in learning success. The core of dynamically stiff regions exhibits dense connectivity, which is consistent with notions of core-periphery organization established previously in social networks. Our results demonstrate that core-periphery organization provides an insightful way to understand how putative functional modules are linked. This, in turn, enables the prediction of fundamental human capacities, including the production of complex goal-directed behavior.

Dynamic reconfiguration of human brain networks during learning.

Human learning is a complex phenomenon requiring flexibility to adapt existing brain function and precision in selecting new neurophysiological activities to drive desired behavior. These two attributes--flexibility and selection--must operate over multiple temporal scales as performance of a skill changes from being slow and challenging to being fast and automatic. Such selective adaptability is naturally provided by modular structure, which plays a critical role in evolution, development, and optimal network function. Using functional connectivity measurements of brain activity acquired from initial training through mastery of a simple motor skill, we investigate the role of modularity in human learning by identifying dynamic changes of modular organization spanning multiple temporal scales. Our results indicate that flexibility, which we measure by the allegiance of nodes to modules, in one experimental session predicts the relative amount of learning in a future session. We also develop a general statistical framework for the identification of modular architectures in evolving systems, which is broadly applicable to disciplines where network adaptability is crucial to the understanding of system performance.

Dynamics on modular networks with heterogeneous correlations.

We develop a new ensemble of modular random graphs in which degree-degree correlations can be different in each module, and the inter-module connections are defined by the joint degree-degree distribution of nodes for each pair of modules. We present an analytical approach that allows one to analyze several types of binary dynamics operating on such networks, and we illustrate our approach using bond percolation, site percolation, and the Watts threshold model. The new network ensemble generalizes existing models (e.g., the well-known configuration model and Lancichinetti-Fortunato-Radicchi networks) by allowing a heterogeneous distribution of degree-degree correlations across modules, which is important for the consideration of nonidentical interacting networks.

Cross-linked structure of network evolution.

We study the temporal co-variation of network co-evolution via the cross-link structure of networks, for which we take advantage of the formalism of hypergraphs to map cross-link structures back to network nodes. We investigate two sets of temporal network data in detail. In a network of coupled nonlinear oscillators, hyperedges that consist of network edges with temporally co-varying weights uncover the driving co-evolution patterns of edge weight dynamics both within and between oscillator communities. In the human brain, networks that represent temporal changes in brain activity during learning exhibit early co-evolution that then settles down with practice. Subsequent decreases in hyperedge size are consistent with emergence of an autonomous subgraph whose dynamics no longer depends on other parts of the network. Our results on real and synthetic networks give a poignant demonstration of the ability of cross-link structure to uncover unexpected co-evolution attributes in both real and synthetic dynamical systems. This, in turn, illustrates the utility of analyzing cross-links for investigating the structure of temporal networks.

Complex networks with complex weights.

In many studies, it is common to use binary (i.e., unweighted) edges to examine networks of entities that are either adjacent or not adjacent. Researchers have generalized such binary networks to incorporate edge weights, which allow one to encode node-node interactions with heterogeneous intensities or frequencies (e.g., in transportation networks, supply chains, and social networks). Most such studies have considered real-valued weights, despite the fact that networks with complex weights arise in fields as diverse as quantum information, quantum chemistry, electrodynamics, rheology, and machine learning. Many of the standard network-science approaches in the study of classical systems rely on the real-valued nature of edge weights, so it is necessary to generalize them if one seeks to use them to analyze networks with complex edge weights. In this paper, we examine how standard network-analysis methods fail to capture structural features of networks with complex edge weights. We then generalize several network measures to the complex domain and show that random-walk centralities provide a useful approach to examine node importances in networks with complex weights.