How well do the spring indices predict phenological activity across plant species?

The spring indices, models that represent the onset of spring season biological activity, were developed using a long-term observational record from the mid-to-late twentieth century of three species of lilacs and honeysuckles contributed by volunteer observers across the nation. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) produces and freely delivers maps of spring index onset dates at fine spatial scale for the USA. These maps are used widely in natural resource planning and management applications. The extent to which the models represent activity in a broad suite of plant species is not well documented. In this study, we used a rich record of observational plant phenology data (37,819 onset records) collected in recent years (1981-2017) to evaluate how well gridded maps of the spring index models predict leaf and flowering onset dates in (a) 19 species of ecologically important, broadly distributed deciduous trees and shrubs, and (b) the lilac and honeysuckle species used to construct the models. The extent to which the spring indices predicted vegetative and reproductive phenology varied by species and with latitude, with stronger relationships revealed for shrubs than trees and with the Bloom Index compared to the Leaf Index, and reduced concordance between the indices at higher latitudes. These results allow us to use the indices as indicators of when to expect activity across widely distributed species and can serve as a yardstick to assess how future changes in the timing of spring will impact a broad array of trees and shrubs across the USA.

Differential changes in the onset of spring across US National Wildlife Refuges and North American migratory bird flyways.

Warming temperatures associated with climate change can have indirect effects on migratory birds that rely on seasonally available food resources and habitats that vary across spatial and temporal scales. We used two heat-based indices of spring onset, the First Leaf Index (FLI) and the First Bloom Index (FBI), as proxies of habitat change for the period 1901 to 2012 at three spatial scales: the US National Wildlife Refuge System; the four major bird migratory flyways in North America; and the seasonal ranges (i.e., breeding and non-breeding grounds) of two migratory bird species, Blue-winged Warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) and Whooping Crane (Grus americana). Our results show that relative to the historical range of variability, the onset of spring is now earlier in 76% of all wildlife refuges and extremely early (i.e., exceeding 95% of historical conditions) in 49% of refuges. In all flyways but the Pacific, the rate of spring advance is generally greater at higher latitudes than at lower latitudes. This differential rate of advance in spring onset is most pronounced in the Atlantic flyway, presumably because of a "warming hole" in the southeastern US. Both FLI and FBI have advanced markedly in the breeding ranges-but not the non-breeding ranges-of the two selected bird species, albeit with considerable intra-range variation. Differences among species in terms of migratory patterns and the location and extent of seasonal habitats, as well as shifts in habitat conditions over time, may complicate predictions of the vulnerability of migratory birds to climate change effects. This study provides insight into how differential shifts in the phenology of disparate but linked habitats could inform local- to landscape-scale management strategies for the conservation of migratory bird populations.

Correction: Differential changes in the onset of spring across US National Wildlife Refuges and North American migratory bird flyways.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0202495.].

Red squirrel middens influence abundance but not diversity of other vertebrates.

Some animals modify the environment in ways that can influence the resources available to other species. Because red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) create large piles of conifer-cone debris (middens) in which they store cones, squirrels concentrate resources that might affect biodiversity locally. To determine whether other animals are attracted to midden sites beyond their affinity for the same resources that attract red squirrels, we assessed associations between middens, mammals, and birds at population and community levels. We surveyed 75 middens where residency rates of red squirrels varied during the previous five years; sampling along this residency gradient permitted us to evaluate the influence of resources at middens beyond the influence of a resident squirrel. At each location, we quantified vegetation, landscape structure, abundance of conifer cones, and midden structure, and used capture-recapture, distance sampling, and remote cameras to quantify presence, abundance, and species richness of mammals and birds. Red squirrels and the resources they concentrated at middens influenced mammals and birds at the population scale and to a lesser extent at the community scale. At middens with higher residency rates of red squirrels, richness of medium and large mammals increased markedly and species richness of birds increased slightly. After accounting for local forest characteristics, however, only species richness of medium-to-large mammals was associated with a red squirrel being resident during surveys. In areas where red squirrels were resident during surveys or in areas with greater amounts of resources concentrated by red squirrels, abundances of two of four small mammal species and two of four bird species increased. We conclude that the presence of this ecosystem modifier and the resources it concentrates influence abundance of some mammals and birds, which may have implications for maintaining biodiversity across the wide geographic range inhabited by red squirrels and other larderhoarding animals.