Atmosphere-Land Bridge between the Pacific and Tropical North Atlantic SST's through the Amazon River basin during the 2005 and 2010 droughts.

The present work uses a new approach to causal inference between complex systems called the Recurrence Measure of Conditional Dependence (RMCD) based on the recurrence plots theory, in order to study the role of the Amazon River basin (AM) as a land-atmosphere bridge between the Niño 3.0 region in the Pacific Ocean and the Tropical North Atlantic. Two anomalous droughts in the Amazon River basin were selected, one mainly attributed to the warming of the Tropical North Atlantic (2005) and the other to a warm phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (2010). The results of the RMCD analysis evidence the distinctive behavior in the causal information transferred between the two oceanic regions during the two extreme droughts, suggesting that the land-atmosphere bridge operating over the AM is an active hydroclimate mechanism at interannual timescales, and that the RMCD analysis may be an ancillary resort to complement early warning systems.

Limitations of Water Resources Infrastructure for Reducing Community Vulnerabilities to Extremes and Uncertainty of Flood and Drought.

Debate and deliberation surrounding climate change has shifted from mitigation toward adaptation, with much of the adaptation focus centered on adaptive practices, and infrastructure development. However, there is little research assessing expected impacts, potential benefits, and design challenges that exist for reducing vulnerability to expected climate impacts. The uncertainty of design requirements and associated government policies, and social structures that reflect observed and projected changes in the intensity, duration, and frequency of water-related climate events leaves communities vulnerable to the negative impacts of potential flood and drought. The results of international research into how agricultural infrastructure features in current and planned adaptive capacity of rural communities in Argentina, Canada, and Colombia indicate that extreme hydroclimatic events, as well as climate variability and unpredictability are important for understanding and responding to community vulnerability. The research outcomes clearly identify the need to deliberately plan, coordinate, and implement infrastructures that support community resiliency.

Statistical scaling, Shannon entropy, and Generalized space-time q-entropy of rainfall fields in tropical South America.

We study diverse scaling and information theory characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) as seen by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) over continental and oceanic regions of tropical South America, and 2-D radar rainfall fields from Amazonia. The bi-dimensional Fourier spectra of MCSs exhibit inverse power laws with respect to the spatial scale, whose scaling exponents, ß, capture the type of spatial correlation of rainfall among the study regions, including those over the Andes of Colombia as well as over oceanic and Amazonian regions. The moment-scaling analysis evidences that the structure function deviates from simple scaling at order q > 1.0, thus signaling the multi-scaling nature of rainfall fields within MCSs in tropical South America, with departures from simple scaling associated with the physical characteristics of MCSs over the different study regions. Entropy is estimated for a large set of radar rainfall fields during the distinctive atmospheric regimes (Easterly and Westerly events) in this part of Amazonia. Results evidence that there are significant differences in the dynamics of rainfall among regimes. No clear-cut relationship is found between entropy and the first two statistical moments, but power fits in space and time, S(γ) ∼ γ(-η) for skewness and, S(κ) ∼ κ(-ϵ) for kurtosis. The exponents η and ϵ are statistically different between Easterly and Westerly events, although the significance of fits is less when L-moments are used to estimate skewness and kurtosis. Interesting differences are identified between the time and space generalized q-entropy functions of Amazonian rainfall fields. In both cases, the functions are a continuous set of power laws (analogous to the structure function in turbulence), S(T, q) ∼ T(ß), and, S(λ, q) ∼ λ(ß), covering a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. Both time and space generalized q-entropy functions exhibit linear growth in the range -1.0 < q < -0.5, and saturation of the exponent ß for q ≥ 1.0. In the case of the spatial analysis, the exponent saturates at 〈ß〉∼1.0, whereas at 〈ß〉=0.5 for the temporal case. Results are similar for time series extracted from the S-POL radar and time series of rainfall in tropical Andes. Additionally, differences in values of 〈ß〉 for q ≥ 1.0 between Easterly and Westerly events are not statistically significant.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO.

Dengue virus (DENV) is an endemic disease in the hot and humid low-lands of Colombia. We characterize the association of monthly series of dengue cases with indices of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the tropical Pacific and local climatic variables in Colombia during the period 2007-2017 at different temporal and spatial scales. For estimation purposes, we use lagged cross-correlations (Pearson test), cross-wavelet analysis (wavelet cross spectrum, and wavelet coherence), as well as a novel nonlinear causality method, PCMCI, that allows identifying common causal drivers and links among high dimensional simultaneous and time-lagged variables. Our results evidence the strong association of DENV cases in Colombia with ENSO indices and with local temperature and rainfall. El Niño (La Niña) phenomenon is related to an increase (decrease) of dengue cases nationally and in most regions and departments, with maximum correlations occurring at shorter time lags in the Pacific and Andes regions, closer to the Pacific Ocean. This association is mainly explained by the ENSO-driven increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, especially in the Andes and Pacific regions. The influence of ENSO is not stationary, given the reduction of DENV cases since 2005, and that local climate variables vary in space and time, which prevents to extrapolate results from one region to another. The association between DENV and ENSO varies at national and regional scales when data are disaggregated by seasons, being stronger in DJF and weaker in SON. Overall, the Pacific and Andes regions control the relationship between dengue dynamics and ENSO at national scale. Cross-wavelet analysis indicates that the ENSO-DENV relation in Colombia exhibits a strong coherence in the 12 to 16-months frequency band, which implies the frequency locking between the annual cycle and the interannual (ENSO) timescales. Results of nonlinear causality metrics reveal the complex concomitant effects of ENSO and local climate variables, while offering new insights to develop early warning systems for DENV in Colombia.

Uncertainty of runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Amazon River basin.

We employ the approach of Roderick and Farquhar (2011) to assess the sensitivity of runoff (R) given changes in precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (Ep ), and other properties that change the partitioning of P (n) by estimating coefficients that predict the weight of each variable in the relative change of R. We use this framework using different data sources and products for P, actual evapotranspiration (E), and Ep within the Amazon River basin to quantify the uncertainty of the hydrologic response at the subcatchment scale. We show that when estimating results from the different combinations of datasets for the entire river basin (at Óbidos), a 10% increase in P would increase R on average 16%, while a 10% increase in Ep would decrease R about 6%. In addition, a 10% change in the parameter n would affect the hydrological response of the entire basin around 5%. However, results change from catchment to catchment and are dependent on the combination of datasets. Finally, results suggest that enhanced estimates of E and Ep are needed to improve our understanding of the future scenarios of hydrological sensitivity with implications for the quantification of climate change impacts at the regional (subcatchment and subbasin) scale in Amazonia.

Concomitant malaria, dengue and COVID-19: an extraordinary challenge for Colombia's public health system.

Malaria and dengue are vector-borne endemic diseases in the low-lying regions of Colombia. Outbreaks of both diseases appear during the occurrence of El Niño in the tropical Pacific. We present updated data confirming the relation, which are explained by the increase in temperature. Malaria shows an increasing trend, of which climate change cannot be disregarded. The migration of over 1?200?000 Venezuelans hiding away from the internal crisis has complicated the situation. Further research is needed to pinpoint the linkages between vector-borne diseases and climate variability, but also with current and future impacts of climate change, and alarming deforestation rates of Colombia. The public health system has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the poorest and most vulnerable regions (Pacific coast, Amazon and Orinoco). This note constitutes a call to Colombia's public health system to maintain vector and water-borne diseases services, which cannot become neglected amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recurrence measure of conditional dependence and applications.

Identifying causal relations from observational data sets has posed great challenges in data-driven causality inference studies. One of the successful approaches to detect direct coupling in the information theory framework is transfer entropy. However, the core of entropy-based tools lies on the probability estimation of the underlying variables. Here we propose a data-driven approach for causality inference that incorporates recurrence plot features into the framework of information theory. We define it as the recurrence measure of conditional dependence (RMCD), and we present some applications. The RMCD quantifies the causal dependence between two processes based on joint recurrence patterns between the past of the possible driver and present of the potentially driven, excepting the contribution of the contemporaneous past of the driven variable. Finally, it can unveil the time scale of the influence of the sea-surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean on the precipitation in the Amazonia during recent major droughts.

Modelling entomological-climatic interactions of Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two Colombian endemic-regions: contributions to a National Malaria Early Warning System.

BACKGROUND: Malaria has recently re-emerged as a public health burden in Colombia. Although the problem seems to be climate-driven, there remain significant gaps of knowledge in the understanding of the complexity of malaria transmission, which have motivated attempts to develop a comprehensive model. METHODS: The mathematical tool was applied to represent Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in two endemic-areas. Entomological exogenous variables were estimated through field campaigns and laboratory experiments. Availability of breeding places was included towards representing fluctuations in vector densities. Diverse scenarios, sensitivity analyses and instabilities cases were considered during experimentation-validation process. RESULTS: Correlation coefficients and mean square errors between observed and modelled incidences reached 0.897-0.668 (P > 0.95) and 0.0002-0.0005, respectively. Temperature became the most relevant climatic parameter driving the final incidence. Accordingly, malaria outbreaks are possible during the favourable epochs following the onset of El Niño warm events. Sporogonic and gonotrophic cycles showed to be the entomological key-variables controlling the transmission potential of mosquitoes' population. Simulation results also showed that seasonality of vector density becomes an important factor towards understanding disease transmission. CONCLUSION: The model constitutes a promising tool to deepen the understanding of the multiple interactions related to malaria transmission conducive to outbreaks. In the foreseeable future it could be implemented as a tool to diagnose possible dynamical patterns of malaria incidence under several scenarios, as well as a decision-making tool for the early detection and control of outbreaks. The model will be also able to be merged with forecasts of El Niño events to provide a National Malaria Early Warning System.

El uso del lisímetro de pesada en clavel (Dianthus caryophyllus L.) genera ahorro en fertirriego / The use of the weighing lysimeter in carnation (Dianthus caryophyllus L.) generates saving in fertigation

RESUMEN El exceso o déficit en el volumen de fertirriego genera desbalances nutricionales, en razón a que influyen en el pH y la CE, afectando el desempeño de las plantas. Además, el descontrol del volumen de fertirriego puede causar excesos de lixiviados con efectos perjudiciales en el medioambiente. La fertirrigación en la producción de clavel en la Sabana de Bogotá, se hace de forma empiríca, por tanto, es indispensable ajustar el volumen de fertirriego a las necesidades del cultivo, para evitar los problemas mencionados. Por esta razón, se evaluó el efecto del control del volumen de fertirriego con lisímetro de peasada, en comparación con el manejo del fertirriego tradicional, en el desempeño de las plantas de miniclavel, sembradas en sutrato, en condiciones de invernadero. Para la evaluación, se realizó un diseño experimental en bloques completos al azar, con los tratamientos de sistema de cultivo con lisímetro (CL) y sistema de cultivo con fertirriego tradicional sin lisímetro (SL). Las variables evaluadas fueron volumen de riego, contenido nutricional de planta completa en cinco estadios fenológicos, pH y nutrientes mayores y secundarios (Ca-Mg), en el sustrato y en la solución drenada. El CL genera un ahorro en el volumen de fertirriego en comparación con el SL. Se encontraron diferencias en el continuo planta - sustrato - lixiviado, en N, K, Mg, así como en el pH del sustrato. El CL fue más eficiente, al generar mayor acumulación de masa seca, con el uso de menos agua y nutrientes, sin afectar el rendimiento, ni la calidad.

ABSTRACT The amount of fertigation excess or deficit generates nutritional unbalances given it affects pH, CE, and the nutrients balance influencing the plant development performance. In addition, the uncontrolled fertigation volume can cause an excess of leachates with detrimental effects on the environment. The Fertigation in carnation production in the Bogotá savanna is done empirically, therefore, it is essential to adjust the fertigation volume to the needs of the crop to avoid the mentioned problems. For this reason, the effect of the control of the fertigation volume with weighting lysimeters was evaluated in comparison with the management of traditional fertigation in the performance of the spray carnation plants sown in substrate under greenhouse conditions. For the evaluation, an experimental design was carried out in complete randomized blocks with a lysimeter crop system (LCS) and a traditional crop system without a lysimeter (WLS) as treatments. Irrigation volume, whole plant nutritional content in five phenological stages, pH, primary and secondary (Ca - Mg) nutrients in the substrate, and drainage solution were the variables evaluated. The LCS generates saving in the use of fertigation compared with WLS. Differences were found in the continuum plant - substrate - leached in N, K, Mg, as well as in the pH of the substrate. The LCS treatment was more efficient by generating greater dry mass accumulation, with the use of less water and nutrients without affecting the yield or quality.

Laboratory estimation of the effects of increasing temperatures on the duration of gonotrophic cycle of Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae).

The increase of malaria transmission in the Pacific Coast of Colombia during the occurrence of El Niño warm event has been found not to be linked to increases in the density of the vector Anopheles albimanus, but to other temperature-sensitive variables such as longevity, duration of the gonotrophic cycle or the sporogonic period of Plasmodium. The present study estimated the effects of temperature on duration of the gonotrophic cycle and on maturation of the ovaries of An. albimanus. Blood fed adult mosquitoes were exposed to temperatures of 24, 27, and 30 degrees C, held individually in oviposition cages and assessed at 12 h intervals. At 24, 27, and 30 degrees C the mean development time of the oocytes was 91.2 h (95% C.I.: 86.5-96), 66.2 h (61.5-70.8), and 73.1 h (64-82.3), respectively. The mean duration of the gonotrophic cycle for these three temperatures was 88.4 h (81.88-94.9), 75 h (71.4-78.7), and 69.1 h (64.6-73.6) respectively. These findings indicate that both parameters in An. albimanus are reduced when temperatures rose from 24 to 30 degrees C, in a nonlinear manner. According to these results the increase in malaria transmission during El Niño in Colombia could be associated with a shortening of the gonotrophic cycle in malaria vectors, which could enhance the frequency of man-vector contact, affecting the incidence of the disease.

Integración de la Medicina Tradicional China y la Acupuntura, al modelo de atención en salud colombiano. Identificación de elementos para su implementación / Integration of Traditional Chinese Medicine and Acupuncture, to the model of Colombian health care. Identification of elements for its implementation

El interés que han despertado las medicinas alternativas y complementarias, especialmente la Medicina Tradicional China y la Acupuntura, ha hecho que este sistema médico oriental, a nivel mundial, se esté integrando a los sistemas de salud oficiales, como solución a la actual crisis de los modelos de atención convencionales, sin embargo, este proceso no ha tenido la respuesta esperada por parte de autoridades políticas, proveedores de salud y la población en general, especialmente en Colombia. Esta situación motivó a realizar la presente investigación, mediante revisión sistemática, con el propósito de identificar los elementos que harían posible el diseño de un modelo de alternativo de atención alineado a los objetivos corporativos de las Instituciones Prestadoras de Salud práctico y sostenible, a partir de un análisis de vulnerabilidad. El presente estudio arroja hallazgos interesantes inherentes a requerimientos normativos, expectativas y exigencias de los actores del sistema de salud, que podrían hacer posible la inclusión de esta Medicina milenaria al sistema de salud colombiano.

Laboratory estimation of the effects of increasing temperatures on the duration of gonotrophic cycle of Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae)

The increase of malaria transmission in the Pacific Coast of Colombia during the occurrence of El Niño warm event has been found not to be linked to increases in the density of the vector Anopheles albimanus, but to other temperature-sensitive variables such as longevity, duration of the gonotrophic cycle or the sporogonic period of Plasmodium. The present study estimated the effects of temperature on duration of the gonotrophic cycle and on maturation of the ovaries of An. albimanus. Blood fed adult mosquitoes were exposed to temperatures of 24, 27, and 30ºC, held individually in oviposition cages and assessed at 12 h intervals. At 24, 27, and 30ºC the mean development time of the oocytes was 91.2 h (95 percent C.I.: 86.5-96), 66.2 h (61.5-70.8), and 73.1 h (64-82.3), respectively. The mean duration of the gonotrophic cycle for these three temperatures was 88.4 h (81.88-94.9), 75 h (71.4-78.7), and 69.1 h (64.6-73.6) respectively. These findings indicate that both parameters in An. albimanus are reduced when temperatures rose from 24 to 30ºC, in a nonlinear manner. According to these results the increase in malaria transmission during El Niño in Colombia could be associated with a shortening of the gonotrophic cycle in malaria vectors, which could enhance the frequency of man-vector contact, affecting the incidence of the disease.