Evidence of climate-driven ecosystem reorganization in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.

Breeding Brown Pelicans Improve Foraging Performance as Energetic Needs Rise.

Optimal foraging theory states that animals should maximize resource acquisition rates with respect to energy expenditure, which may involve alteration of strategies in response to changes in resource availability and energetic need. However, field-based studies of changes in foraging behavior at fine spatial and temporal scales are rare, particularly among species that feed on highly mobile prey across broad landscapes. To derive information on changes in foraging behavior of breeding brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) over time, we used GPS telemetry and distribution models of their dominant prey species to relate bird movements to changes in foraging habitat quality in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Over the course of each breeding season, pelican cohorts began by foraging in suboptimal habitats relative to the availability of high-quality patches, but exhibited a marked increase in foraging habitat quality over time that outpaced overall habitat improvement trends across the study site. These findings, which are consistent with adjustment of foraging patch use in response to increased energetic need, highlight the degree to which animal populations can optimize their foraging behaviors in the context of uncertain and dynamic resource availability, and provide an improved understanding of how landscape-level features can impact behavior.

Fleet behavior is responsive to a large-scale environmental disturbance: Hypoxia effects on the spatial dynamics of the northern Gulf of Mexico shrimp fishery.

The northwestern Gulf of Mexico shelf experiences one of the largest seasonal hypoxic zones in the western hemisphere. Hypoxia (dissolved oxygen, DO ≤ 2.0 mg·L-1) is most severe from May to August during the height of the Gulf shrimp fishery, but its effects on the fishery are not well known. Prior studies indicate that hypoxia alters the spatial dynamics of shrimp and other species through habitat loss and aggregation in nearby oxygenated refuge habitats. We hypothesized that hypoxia-induced changes in the distribution of shrimp also alter the spatial dynamics of the Gulf shrimp fleet. We integrated data on the geographic distribution of shrimp tows and bottom DO to evaluate the effects of hypoxia on spatial patterns in shrimping effort. Our analyses indicate that shrimping effort declines in low DO waters on both the Texas and Louisiana shelf, but that considerable effort still occurs in low DO waters off Louisiana, likely because riverine nutrients fuel both benthic production and low bottom DO in the same general regions. The response of the shrimp fleet to hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf was complex with shifts in effort inshore, offshore, westward, and eastward of the hypoxic zone, as well as to an oxygenated area between two hypoxia regimes associated with the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya River outflows. In contrast, effort on the Texas shelf mostly shifted offshore in response to low DO but also shifted inshore in some years. Spatial patterns in total shrimping effort were driven primarily by the number of shrimp tows, consistent with aggregation of the fleet outside of hypoxic waters, though tow duration also declined in low DO waters. Overall, our results demonstrate that hypoxia alters the spatial dynamics of the Gulf shrimp fishery with potential consequences for harvest interactions and the economic condition of the fishery.

Adaptation as a potential response to sea-level rise: a genetic basis for salinity tolerance in populations of a coastal marsh fish.

Relative sea-level rise is resulting in the intrusion of saline waters into marshes historically dominated by fresh water. Saltwater intrusions can potentially affect resident marsh species, especially when storm-related tidal surges cause rapid changes in salinity. We examined the role of historical salinity exposure on the survival of Gambusia affinis from two locations in coastal Louisiana. At each location, we sampled fish populations from fresh, intermediate and brackish marshes. Individuals were then exposed to a salinity of 25‰ and survival time was measured. We found that fish from brackish and intermediate marshes had an increased tolerance to salinity stress relative to fish from freshwater environments. We then tested the descendents of fish from the fresh and brackish marshes, reared for two generation in fresh water, to determine if there was a genetic basis for differential survival. We found that descendents of individuals from brackish marshes showed elevated survivals relative to the descendents of fish with no historical exposure to salinity. The most reasonable mechanism to account for the differences in survival relative to historical exposure is genetic adaptation, suggesting that natural selection may play a role in the responses of resident marsh fishes to future increases in salinity.