A two-variant model of SARS-COV-2 transmission: estimating the characteristics of a newly emerging strain.

BACKGROUND: The Covid-19 pandemic has been characterized by the emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants, each with distinct properties influencing transmission dynamics, immune escape, and virulence, which, in turn, influence their impact on local populations. Swift analysis of the properties of newly emerged variants is essential in the initial days and weeks to enhance readiness and facilitate the scaling of clinical and public health system responses. METHODS: This paper introduces a two-variant metapopulation compartmental model of disease transmission to simulate the dynamics of disease transmission during a period of transition to a newly dominant strain. Leveraging novel S-gene dropout analysis data and genomic sequencing data, combined with confirmed Covid-19 case data, we estimate the epidemiological characteristics of the Omicron variant, which replaced the Delta variant in late 2021 in Philadelphia, PA. We utilized a grid-search method to identify plausible combinations of model parameters, followed by an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter for parameter inference. RESULTS: The model successfully estimated key epidemiological parameters; we estimated the ascertainment rate of 0.22 (95% credible interval 0.15-0.29) and transmission rate of 5.0 (95% CI 2.4-6.6) for the Omicron variant. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrates the potential for this model-inference framework to provide real-time insights during the emergence of novel variants, aiding in timely public health responses.

Impact of DNA degradation on massively parallel sequencing-based autosomal STR, iiSNP, and mitochondrial DNA typing systems.

Biological samples, including skeletal remains exposed to environmental insults for extended periods of time, exhibit increasing levels of DNA damage and fragmentation. Human forensic identification methods typically use a combination of mitochondrial (mt) DNA sequencing and short tandem repeat (STR) analysis, which target segments of DNA ranging from 80 to 500 base pairs (bps). Larger templates are often unavailable as skeletal samples age and the associated DNA degrades. Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci target shorter templates and may serve as a solution to the problem. Recently developed assays for STR and SNP analysis using a massively parallel sequencing approach, such as the ForenSeq kit (Verogen, San Diego, CA), offer a means for generating results from degraded samples as they target templates down to 60 to 170 bps. We performed a modeling study that demonstrates that SNPs can increase the significance of an identification when analyzing DNA down to an average size of 100 bps for input amounts between 0.375 and 1 ng of nuclear DNA. Observations from this study were then compared with human skeletal material results (n = 14, ninth to eighteenth centuries), which further demonstrated the utility of the ForenSeq kit for degraded samples. The robustness of the Promega PowerSeq™ Mito System was also tested with human skeletal remains (n = 70, ninth to eighteenth centuries), resulting in successful coverage of 99.29% of the mtDNA control region at 50× coverage or more. This was accompanied by modifications to a mainstream DNA extraction technique for skeletal remains that improved recovery of shorter templates.

SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with vaccine breakthrough in the Delaware Valley through summer 2021.

The severe acute respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the global outbreak of COVID-19. Evidence suggests that the virus is evolving to allow efficient spread through the human population, including vaccinated individuals. Here we report a study of viral variants from surveillance of the Delaware Valley, including the city of Philadelphia, and variants infecting vaccinated subjects. We sequenced and analyzed complete viral genomes from 2621 surveillance samples from March 2020 to September 2021 and compared them to genome sequences from 159 vaccine breakthroughs. In the early spring of 2020, all detected variants were of the B.1 and closely related lineages. A mixture of lineages followed, notably including B.1.243 followed by B.1.1.7 (alpha), with other lineages present at lower levels. Later isolations were dominated by B.1.617.2 (delta) and other delta lineages; delta was the exclusive variant present by the last time sampled. To investigate whether any variants appeared preferentially in vaccine breakthroughs, we devised a model based on Bayesian autoregressive moving average logistic multinomial regression to allow rigorous comparison. This revealed that B.1.617.2 (delta) showed three-fold enrichment in vaccine breakthrough cases (odds ratio of 3; 95% credible interval 0.89-11). Viral point substitutions could also be associated with vaccine breakthroughs, notably the N501Y substitution found in the alpha, beta and gamma variants (odds ratio 2.04; 95% credible interval of 1.25-3.18). This study thus provides a detailed picture of viral evolution in the Delaware Valley and a geographically matched analysis of vaccine breakthroughs; it also introduces a rigorous statistical approach to interrogating enrichment of viral variants.

SARS-CoV-2 Variants Associated with Vaccine Breakthrough in the Delaware Valley through Summer 2021.

The severe acute respiratory coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the global outbreak of COVID-19. Evidence suggests that the virus is evolving to allow efficient spread through the human population, including vaccinated individuals. Here, we report a study of viral variants from surveillance of the Delaware Valley, including the city of Philadelphia, and variants infecting vaccinated subjects. We sequenced and analyzed complete viral genomes from 2621 surveillance samples from March 2020 to September 2021 and compared them to genome sequences from 159 vaccine breakthroughs. In the early spring of 2020, all detected variants were of the B.1 and closely related lineages. A mixture of lineages followed, notably including B.1.243 followed by B.1.1.7 (alpha), with other lineages present at lower levels. Later isolations were dominated by B.1.617.2 (delta) and other delta lineages; delta was the exclusive variant present by the last time sampled. To investigate whether any variants appeared preferentially in vaccine breakthroughs, we devised a model based on Bayesian autoregressive moving average logistic multinomial regression to allow rigorous comparison. This revealed that B.1.617.2 (delta) showed 3-fold enrichment in vaccine breakthrough cases (odds ratio of 3; 95% credible interval 0.89-11). Viral point substitutions could also be associated with vaccine breakthroughs, notably the N501Y substitution found in the alpha, beta and gamma variants (odds ratio 2.04; 95% credible interval of1.25-3.18). This study thus overviews viral evolution and vaccine breakthroughs in the Delaware Valley and introduces a rigorous statistical approach to interrogating enrichment of breakthrough variants against a changing background. IMPORTANCE SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is highly effective at reducing viral infection, hospitalization and death. However, vaccine breakthrough infections have been widely observed, raising the question of whether particular viral variants or viral mutations are associated with breakthrough. Here, we report analysis of 2621 surveillance isolates from people diagnosed with COVID-19 in the Delaware Valley in southeastern Pennsylvania, allowing rigorous comparison to 159 vaccine breakthrough case specimens. Our best estimate is a 3-fold enrichment for some lineages of delta among breakthroughs, and enrichment of a notable spike substitution, N501Y. We introduce statistical methods that should be widely useful for evaluating vaccine breakthroughs and other viral phenotypes.