Individualized Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Mexico City Municipality during the First Six Waves of the Pandemic.

After COVID-19 emerged, alternative methods to laboratory tests for the individualized prediction of SARS-CoV-2 were developed in several world regions. The objective of this investigation was to develop models for the individualized prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a large municipality of Mexico. The study included data from 36,949 patients with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection who received a diagnostic tested at health centers of the Alvaro Obregon Jurisdiction in Mexico City registered in the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases (SISVER-SINAVE). The variables that were different between a positive test and a negative test were used to generate multivariate binary logistic regression models. There was a large variation in the prediction variables for the models of different pandemic waves. The models obtained an overall accuracy of 73% (63-82%), sensitivity of 52% (18-71%), and specificity of 84% (71-92%). In conclusion, the individualized prediction models of a positive COVID-19 test based on SISVER-SINAVE data had good performance. The large variation in the prediction variables for the models of different pandemic waves highlights the continuous change in the factors that influence the spread of COVID-19. These prediction models could be applied in early case identification strategies, especially in vulnerable populations.

Effectiveness of autologous lipoinjection into the hand to improve function in patients with scleroderma: pilot study

Background: Scleroderma is a rare disease of the tissues that is characterized for being inflammatory and developing fibrosis in the skin. Typically, this disease affects middle-aged women.Methods: A study was conducted in which 10 patients with scleroderma with involvement in the sclerotic stage were included. One of the hands was chosen randomly for treatment with fatty graft processed by Coleman technique and the other hand, physiological solution was placed. Patients were evaluated at 45 and 90 days after the procedure using the Cochin Hand Functional Scale (CHFS) questionnaire, modified Rodnan scale for the skin (mRSS), grip strength with dynamometer and measurement of fingertip to palm of hand in flexion.Results: The average of CHFS before treatment was 42.30 and 25.70 at 90 days p=0.007. The average strength in the experimental hand before treatment was 11.67 and 14.58 at 90 days p=0.007, in the control hand p=0.873. The mean finger-palm tip distance before treatment was 44.80 and from 36.00 to 90 days p=0.019, in the control hand p=0.149. There is a significant difference in the degree of severity at 90 days of the mRSS of the back of the hands p=0.011 and phalanges p=0.000 between the patients with lipoinjection and physiological solution.Conclusion: Significant improvement was observed in patients with scleroderma treated with autologous lipoinjection.