Novel Stratification of Mortality Risk by Kidney Disease Stage.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common disorder with a variable clinical course and it is associated with increased mortality. The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) is an electronic risk calculator that utilizes complete blood count (CBC) and basic metabolic panel (BMP) values to predict mortality in various healthcare populations. We hypothesized that IMRS would predict mortality in patients with CKD even with adjustment for serum phosphate and urinary albumin. METHODS: Three thousand eight hundred seventy-two patients with CKD classes IIIA-V had IMRS calculated retrospectively and survival analysis was performed investigating 1- and 5-year mortality. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated for predefined IMRS groups of low, medium and high risk for CKD patients overall and by sex and CKD stage. Serum phosphate and urinary albumin/creatinine ratios were modeled in multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models. Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine c-statistics for mortality. RESULTS: For all patients with CKD, mortality was significantly greater for those with medium- or high-risk compared to low-risk IMRS categories, among each CKD stage. Overall, IMRS was predictive of mortality at both 1 and 5 years, even when adjusted for CKD stage and predicted mortality more accurately than CKD stage alone. Albuminuria was not independently associated with mortality and serum phosphate weakly predicted mortality. CONCLUSION: IMRS is a strong predictor of mortality in patients with CKD and is robustly complementary to CKD stage in refining risk prediction. Given the universal availability and low cost of the CBC and BMP, IMRS may be of a substantial value in CKD risk assessment and management.

Vitronectin accumulates in the interstitium but minimally impacts fibrogenesis in experimental chronic kidney disease.

Vitronectin (Vtn) is a glycoprotein found in normal serum and pathological extracellular matrix. Given its known interactions with plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) and Vtn cellular receptors, especially αvß3 integrin and the urokinase receptor (uPAR), this study was designed to investigate its role in renal fibrogenesis in the mouse model of unilateral ureteral obstruction (UUO). Kidney Vtn mRNA levels were increased ×1.8-5.1 and Vtn protein levels ×1.9-3 on days 7, 14, and 21 after UUO compared with sham kidney levels. Groups of age-matched C57BL/6 wild-type (Vtn+/+) and Vtn-/- mice (n = 10-11/group) were killed 7, 14, or 21 days after UUO. Absence of Vtn resulted in the following significant differences, but only on day 14: fewer αSMA+ interstitial myofibroblasts (×0.53), lower procollagen III mRNA levels (×0.41), lower PAI-1 protein (×0.23), higher uPA activity (×1.1), and lower αv protein (×0.32). The number of CD68+ macrophages did not differ between the genotypes. Despite these transient differences on day 14, the absence of Vtn had no effect on fibrosis severity based on both picrosirius red-positive interstitial area and total kidney collagen measured by the hydroxyproline assay. These findings suggest that despite significant interstitial Vtn deposition in the UUO model of chronic kidney disease, its fibrogenic role is either nonessential or redundant. These data are remarkable given Vtn's strong affinity for the potent fibrogenic molecule PAI-1.

Clinical and Echocardiographic Predictors of Outcomes in Patients With Moderate (Mean Transvalvular Gradient 20 to 40 mm Hg) Aortic Stenosis.

Risk factors for adverse clinical outcomes in patients with moderate aortic stenosis are not well defined. Previous studies have suggested that certain patients with moderate AS may be at an increased risk of heart failure (HF) or death. All patients with moderate AS seen in our institution during the study period (6/1/2014 to 6/30/2017) with a minimum 1-year follow-up were included. Clinical and echocardiographic data were collected retrospectively. End points were defined as HF hospitalization, aortic valve replacement (AVR), or death. Kaplan-Meier and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models analyses were conducted using composite outcomes of (1) HF hospitalization or AVR and (2) HF hospitalization, AVR, or all-cause death. A total of 151 subjects met the inclusion criteria. The most significant risk factors associated with the composite outcomes were an ejection fraction (EF) <50% ((1) hazard ratio [HR]: 4.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.34, 7.12; (2) HR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.2, 6.6), atrial fibrillation ((1) HR: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.2, 3.2; (2) HR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.43, 3.2), left ventricular hypertrophy ((1) HR: 5.85; 95% CI: 2.0, 15.8; (2) HR: 3.2; 95% CI: 1.4, 7.4), aortic valve area ((1) HR: 0.3; 95% CI: 0.1, 0.6; (2) HR: 0.32; 95% CI: 0.1, 0.65), and abnormal right ventricular function ((1) HR: 4.3; 95% CI: 2.5, 7.5; (2) HR: 5.5; 95% CI: 3.0, 9.8). In conclusion, presence of reduced ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, left ventricular hypertrophy, and abnormal right ventricular function are associated with an increased risk of HF hospitalization, AVR, and death in patients with moderate aortic stenosis.