A conservative approach to leveraging external evidence for effective clinical trial design.

Prior probabilities of clinical hypotheses are not systematically used for clinical trial design yet, due to a concern that poor priors may lead to poor decisions. To address this concern, a conservative approach to Bayesian trial design is illustrated here, requiring that the operational characteristics of the primary trial outcome are stronger than the prior. This approach is complementary to current Bayesian design methods, in that it insures against prior-data conflict by defining a sample size commensurate to a discrete design prior. This approach is ethical, in that it requires designs appropriate to achieving pre-specified levels of clinical equipoise imbalance. Practical examples are discussed, illustrating design of trials with binary or time to event endpoints. Moderate increases in phase II study sample size are shown to deliver strong levels of overall evidence for go/no-go clinical development decisions. Levels of negative evidence provided by group sequential confirmatory designs are found negligible, highlighting the importance of complementing efficacy boundaries with non-binding futility criteria.

Estimation of invasive Group B Streptococcus disease risk in young infants from case-control serological studies.

BACKGROUND: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) infections are a major cause of invasive disease (IGbsD) in young infants and cause miscarriage and stillbirths. Immunization of pregnant women against GBS in addition to intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis could prevent disease. Establishing accurate serological markers of protection against IGbsD could enable use of efficient clinical trial designs for vaccine development and licensure, without needing to undertake efficacy trials in prohibitively large number of mother-infant dyads. The association of maternal naturally acquired serotype-specific anti-capsular antibodies (IgG) against serotype-specific IGbsD in their infants has been studied in case-control studies. The statistical models used so far to estimate IGbsD risk from these case-control studies assumed that the antibody concentrations measured sharing the same disease status are sampled from the same population, not allowing for differences between mothers colonised by GBS and mothers also potentially infected (e.g urinary tract infection or chorioamnionitis) by GBS during pregnancy. This distinction is relevant as infants born from infected mothers with occult medical illness may be exposed to GBS prior to the mother developing antibodies measured in maternal or infant sera. METHODS: Unsupervised mixture model averaging (MMA) is proposed and applied here to accurately estimate infant IGbsD risk from case-control study data in presence or absence of antibody concentration subgroups potentially associated to maternal GBS carriage or infection. MMA estimators are compared to non-parametric disease risk estimators in simulation studies and by analysis of two published GBS case-control studies. RESULTS: MMA provides more accurate relative risk estimates under a broad range of data simulation scenarios and more accurate absolute disease risk estimates when the proportion of IGbsD cases with high antibody levels is not ignorable. MMA estimates of the relative and absolute disease risk curves are more amenable to clinical interpretation compared to non-parametric estimates with no detectable overfitting of the data. Antibody concentration thresholds predictive of protection from infant IGbsD estimated by MMA from maternal and infant sera are consistent with non-parametric estimates. CONCLUSIONS: MMA is a flexible and robust method for design, accurate analysis and clinical interpretation of case-control studies estimating relative and absolute IGbsD risk from antibody concentrations measured at or after birth.

What is the expected benefit of patient-centric clinical development in oncology?

The identification and quantification of predictive biomarkers characterize personalized medicine approaches and patient-centric clinical development. In practice, the sponsor needs evaluating whether biomarker-informed clinical development strategies are more likely to benefit current and future patients. To this end, a simple metric is proposed and assessed here quantifying the expected clinical benefit (ECB) of clinical development programmes. Using simulation scenarios and endpoints relevant to oncology, the ECB of a simple biomarker-informed strategy is shown to be specific and sensitive. Also, the ECB difference is shown to increase in the biomarker-driven incremental efficacy and with the population prevalence of biomarker-positive study participants.

Expression of factor H binding protein in meningococcal strains can vary at least 15-fold and is genetically determined.

Factor H binding protein (fHbp) is a lipoprotein of Neisseria meningitidis important for the survival of the bacterium in human blood and a component of two recently licensed vaccines against serogroup B meningococcus (MenB). Based on 866 different amino acid sequences this protein is divided into three variants or two families. Quantification of the protein is done by immunoassays such as ELISA or FACS that are susceptible to the sequence variation and expression level of the protein. Here, selected reaction monitoring mass spectrometry was used for the absolute quantification of fHbp in a large panel of strains representative of the population diversity of MenB. The analysis revealed that the level of fHbp expression can vary at least 15-fold and that variant 1 strains express significantly more protein than variant 2 or variant 3 strains. The susceptibility to complement-mediated killing correlated with the amount of protein expressed by the different meningococcal strains and this could be predicted from the nucleotide sequence of the promoter region. Finally, the absolute quantification allowed the calculation of the number of fHbp molecules per cell and to propose a mechanistic model of the engagement of C1q, the recognition component of the complement cascade.

The Protective Value of Maternal Group B Streptococcus Antibodies: Quantitative and Functional Analysis of Naturally Acquired Responses to Capsular Polysaccharides and Pilus Proteins in European Maternal Sera.

BACKGROUND: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is a major cause of neonatal sepsis and meningitis. A vaccine targeting pregnant women could protect infants through placentally transferred antibodies. The association between GBS maternal antibody concentrations and the risk of neonatal infection has been investigated in US and African populations. Here we studied naturally acquired immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses to GBS capsular polysaccharides (CPS) and pilus proteins in European pregnant women. METHODS: Maternal sera were prospectively collected in 8 EU countries from 473 GBS non-colonized and 984 colonized pregnant women who delivered healthy neonates and from 153 mothers of infants with GBS disease. GBS strains from these colonized women and infected infants were obtained in parallel and their capsular and pilus types were identified by serological and molecular methods. Maternal serum concentrations of IgG anti- Ia, -Ib, -III and -V polysaccharides and anti-BP-1, -AP1-2a and -BP-2b pilus proteins were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibody functional activity was quantified by Opsonophagocytic Killing Assay. RESULTS: Antibody levels against CPS and pilus proteins were significantly higher in GBS colonized women delivering healthy babies than in mothers of neonates with GBS disease or non-colonized women. Moreover, maternal anti-capsular IgG concentrations showed a significant correlation with functional titers measured by Opsonophagocytic Killing Assay. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal anti-capsular IgG concentrations above 1 µg/mL mediated GBS killing in vitro and were predicted to respectively reduce by 81% (95% confidence interval, 40%-100%) and 78% (45%-100%) the risk of GBS Ia and III early-onset disease in Europe.

Threshold-free estimation of functional antibody titers of a group B streptococcus opsonophagocytic killing assay.

Opsonophagocytic killing assays (OPKA) are routinely used for the quantification of bactericidal antibodies in blood serum samples. Quantification of the OPKA readout, the titer, provides the basis for the statistical analysis of vaccine clinical trials having functional immune response endpoints. Traditional OPKA titers are defined as the maximum serum dilution yielding a predefined bacterial killing threshold value, and they are estimated by fitting a dose-response model to the dilution-killing curve. This paper illustrates a novel definition of titer, the threshold-free titer, which preserves biological interpretability while not depending on any killing threshold or on a postulated shape of the dose-response curve. These titers are shown to be more precise than the traditional threshold-based titers when using simulated and experimental group B streptococcus OPKA experimental data. Also, titer linearity is shown to be not measurable when using threshold-based titers, whereas it becomes measurable using threshold-free titers. The biological interpretability and operational characteristics demonstrated here indicate that threshold-free titers are an appropriate tool for the routine analysis of OPKA data.

A hybrid procedure for detecting global treatment effects in multivariate clinical trials: theory and applications to fMRI studies.

In multivariate clinical trials, a key research endpoint is ascertaining whether a candidate treatment is more efficacious than an established alternative. This global endpoint is clearly of high practical value for studies, such as those arising from neuroimaging, where the outcome dimensions are not only numerous but they are also highly correlated and the available sample sizes are typically small. In this paper, we develop a two-stage procedure testing the null hypothesis of global equivalence between treatments effects and demonstrate its application to analysing phase II neuroimaging trials. Prior information such as suitable statistics of historical data or suitably elicited expert clinical opinions are combined with data collected from the first stage of the trial to learn a set of optimal weights. We apply these weights to the outcome dimensions of the second-stage responses to form the linear combination z and t tests statistics while controlling the test's false positive rate. We show that the proposed tests hold desirable asymptotic properties and characterise their power functions under wide conditions. In particular, by comparing the power of the proposed tests with that of Hotelling's T(2), we demonstrate their advantages when sample sizes are close to the dimension of the multivariate outcome. We apply our methods to fMRI studies, where we find that, for sufficiently precise first stage estimates of the treatment effect, standard single-stage testing procedures are outperformed.

Design and conduct of Caudwell Xtreme Everest: an observational cohort study of variation in human adaptation to progressive environmental hypoxia.

BACKGROUND: The physiological responses to hypoxaemia and cellular hypoxia are poorly understood, and inter-individual differences in performance at altitude and outcome in critical illness remain unexplained. We propose a model for exploring adaptation to hypoxia in the critically ill: the study of healthy humans, progressively exposed to environmental hypobaric hypoxia (EHH). The aim of this study was to describe the spectrum of adaptive responses in humans exposed to graded EHH and identify factors (physiological and genetic) associated with inter-individual variation in these responses. DESIGN: Observational cohort study of progressive incremental exposure to EHH. SETTING: University human physiology laboratory in London, UK (75 m) and 7 field laboratories in Nepal at 1300 m, 3500 m, 4250 m, 5300 m, 6400 m, 7950 m and 8400 m. PARTICIPANTS: 198 healthy volunteers and 24 investigators trekking to Everest Base Camp (EBC) (5300 m). A subgroup of 14 investigators studied at altitudes up to 8400 m on Everest. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Exercise capacity, exercise efficiency and economy, brain and muscle Near Infrared Spectroscopy, plasma biomarkers (including markers of inflammation), allele frequencies of known or suspected hypoxia responsive genes, spirometry, neurocognitive testing, retinal imaging, pupilometry. In nested subgroups: microcirculatory imaging, muscle biopsies with proteomic and transcriptomic tissue analysis, continuous cardiac output measurement, arterial blood gas measurement, trans-cranial Doppler, gastrointestinal tonometry, thromboelastography and ocular saccadometry. RESULTS: Of 198 healthy volunteers leaving Kathmandu, 190 reached EBC (5300 m). All 24 investigators reached EBC. The completion rate for planned testing was more than 99% in the investigator group and more than 95% in the trekkers. Unique measurements were safely performed at extreme altitude, including the highest (altitude) field measurements of exercise capacity, cerebral blood flow velocity and microvascular blood flow at 7950 m and arterial blood gas measurement at 8400 m. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility and safety of conducting a large healthy volunteer cohort study of human adaptation to hypoxia in this difficult environment. Systematic measurements of a large set of variables were achieved in 222 subjects and at altitudes up to 8400 m. The resulting dataset is a unique resource for the study of genotype:phenotype interactions in relation to hypoxic adaptation.

Retrospective Identification of a Broad IgG Repertoire Differentiating Patients With S. aureus Skin and Soft Tissue Infections From Controls.

Background: Although the relevance of humoral immunity for protection against S. aureus skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) has been suggested by several animal and human studies, the question of which human antibodies may be protective has so far impeded the development of a safe and effective vaccine. Because most adults have developed certain anti-S. aureus antibodies due to S. aureus colonization or infection, we hypothesized that the titers of antibodies to S. aureus in uninfected controls would differ from those in infected patients and would also differ in infected patients from the time of acute infection to a 40-day convalescent serum. Methods: To test these hypotheses, we measured human antibody levels against a panel of 134 unique antigens comprising the S. aureus surfome and secretome in subjects with active culture-confirmed S. aureus SSTIs (cases) and in controls with no infection, using a novel S. aureus protein microarray. Results: Most S. aureus SSTI patients (n = 60) and controls (n = 142) had antibodies to many of the tested S. aureus antigens. Univariate analysis showed statistically weak differences in the IgG levels to some antigens in the SSTI patient (case) sera compared with controls. Antibody levels to most tested antigens did not increase comparing acute with 40-day serum. Multiple logistic regression identified a rich subset of antigens that, by their antibody levels, together correctly differentiated all cases from all controls. Conclusions: Antibodies directed against S. aureus antigens were present both in patients with S. aureus SSTIs and in uninfected control patients. We found that SSTI patients and controls could be distinguished only based on differences in antibody levels to many staphylococcal surface and secreted antigens. Our results demonstrate that in the studied population, the levels of anti-S. aureus antibodies appear largely fixed, suggesting that there may be some level of unresponsiveness to natural infection.

Functional activity of maternal and cord antibodies elicited by an investigational group B Streptococcus trivalent glycoconjugate vaccine in pregnant women.

OBJECTIVES: The main aim of this exploratory study was to evaluate functional activity of antibodies elicited by a maternal Group B Streptococcus (GBS) investigational vaccine composed of capsular polysaccharides Ia, Ib, and III conjugated to genetically detoxified Diphtheria toxin CRM197. The second objective was to investigate the relationship between serotype-specific IgG concentrations and functional activity in maternal and cord sera. METHODS: Maternal and cord sera collected at baseline and at delivery from vaccine and placebo recipients during a double-blind placebo-controlled Phase II study (www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01446289) were tested in an opsono-phagocytic bacterial killing assay. Cord sera from vaccine recipients were also passively transferred to newborn mice to investigate conferred protection against bacterial challenge. RESULTS: Antibody-mediated GBS phagocytic killing was significantly increased in maternal serum at delivery and in cord sera from the investigational vaccine group as compared to the placebo group. Anti-capsular IgG concentrations above 1 µg/mL mediated in vitro killing against GBS strains belonging to all three serotypes and IgG levels correlated with functional titers. Passively administered cord sera elicited a dose-dependent protective response against all GBS serotypes in the in vivo model. CONCLUSIONS: The maternal vaccine elicited functional antibodies that were placentally transferred. Anti-capsular IgG concentrations in maternal and cord sera were predictive of functional activity and in vivo protection in the mouse model.

Core values for vaccine evaluation.

Currently, most health economic modelling approaches tend to inadequately incorporate crucial disease-specific criteria and other attributes of benefit resulting from vaccination, which limits their utility for evaluating vaccines and, in consequence, for optimally guiding vaccine decision-making. Additionally, vaccine evaluation methods are frequently poorly standardised and non-transparent, leading to a potentially low level of accountability that can hinder acceptance of resulting decisions. To address these issues, we have considered whether it is possible to identify a set of universal vaccine-disease considerations, which we have called Core Values. To begin to identify such a set of criteria, and to establish whether strong agreement around such core values exists, we conducted two studies based on the Delphi technique. Both studies surveyed a cohort consisting of expert members of the global vaccine community with diverse professional backgrounds. Formal statistical analysis of both studies identified four attributes with strong agreement: 1. Incidence disease cases prevented per year, 2. Cost-effectiveness (including cost-benefit and cost-utility analysis), 3. High mortality disease (case-fatality-rate), and 4. Severity of target disease (risk of morbidity and mortality). These results suggest the feasibility of identifying a clear consensus on a specific set of Core Values for Vaccine Evaluation.

Gene expression phenotypes of atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Fulfilling the promise of personalized medicine by developing individualized diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for atherosclerosis will depend on a detailed understanding of the genes and gene variants that contribute to disease susceptibility and progression. To that end, our group has developed a nonbiased approach congruent with the multigenic concept of complex diseases by identifying gene expression patterns highly associated with disease states in human target tissues. METHODS AND RESULTS: We have analyzed a collection of human aorta samples with varying degrees of atherosclerosis to identify gene expression patterns that predict a disease state or potential susceptibility. We find gene expression signatures that relate to each of these disease measures and are reliable and robust in predicting the classification for new samples with >93% in each analysis. The genes that provide the predictive power include many previously suspected to play a role in atherosclerosis and additional genes without prior association with atherosclerosis. CONCLUSIONS: Hence, we are reporting a novel method for generating a molecular phenotype of disease and then identifying genes whose discriminatory capability strongly implicates their potential roles in human atherosclerosis.

Antibodies to influenza nucleoprotein cross-react with human hypocretin receptor 2.

The sleep disorder narcolepsy is linked to the HLA-DQB1*0602 haplotype and dysregulation of the hypocretin ligand-hypocretin receptor pathway. Narcolepsy was associated with Pandemrix vaccination (an adjuvanted, influenza pandemic vaccine) and also with infection by influenza virus during the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic. In contrast, very few cases were reported after Focetria vaccination (a differently manufactured adjuvanted influenza pandemic vaccine). We hypothesized that differences between these vaccines (which are derived from inactivated influenza viral proteins) explain the association of narcolepsy with Pandemrix-vaccinated subjects. A mimic peptide was identified from a surface-exposed region of influenza nucleoprotein A that shared protein residues in common with a fragment of the first extracellular domain of hypocretin receptor 2. A significant proportion of sera from HLA-DQB1*0602 haplotype-positive narcoleptic Finnish patients with a history of Pandemrix vaccination (vaccine-associated narcolepsy) contained antibodies to hypocretin receptor 2 compared to sera from nonnarcoleptic individuals with either 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic influenza infection or history of Focetria vaccination. Antibodies from vaccine-associated narcolepsy sera cross-reacted with both influenza nucleoprotein and hypocretin receptor 2, which was demonstrated by competitive binding using 21-mer peptide (containing the identified nucleoprotein mimic) and 55-mer recombinant peptide (first extracellular domain of hypocretin receptor 2) on cell lines expressing human hypocretin receptor 2. Mass spectrometry indicated that relative to Pandemrix, Focetria contained 72.7% less influenza nucleoprotein. In accord, no durable antibody responses to nucleoprotein were detected in sera from Focetria-vaccinated nonnarcoleptic subjects. Thus, differences in vaccine nucleoprotein content and respective immune response may explain the narcolepsy association with Pandemrix.

Quantification by LC-MS(E) of outer membrane vesicle proteins of the Bexsero® vaccine.

Meningococcal disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Its epidemiology is currently dominated by five capsular serogroups (A, B, C, W, and Y). While effective vaccines already exist for serogroups A, C, W and Y, except for under clonal outbreaks, no vaccine was available against serogroup B. Recently, a four component vaccine, Bexsero(®), designed to prevent infection caused by this serogroup, has been approved in Europe and other Countries for use in individuals from two months of age and older. The active components of this vaccine are three recombinant proteins identified by reverse vaccinology combined with detergent extracted outer membrane vesicles (DOMV) prepared from a New Zealand epidemic strain. Considering their intrinsic complexity, we performed additional characterization of DOMVs on top of the standard quality control testing carried out for batch release. We applied the Hi3 label-free LC-MS(E) methodology to qualitatively and quantitatively characterize the DOMV protein content. We first, successfully investigated the robustness and the accuracy of the methodology for the DOMV characterization and we then applied it to compare six DOMV production lots. Around 100 proteins were quantified from each preparation. When classified according to their predicted cellular localization, about 90% of the total protein amount belongs consistently to the outer membrane compartment. Using nonparametric hypothesis testing and complementary log-log linear regression, the quantifications of a subset of 21 proteins common to all lots and including approximately 90% (85-92%) of the total protein amount quantified in any DOMV lot were found consistent across lots. The relevance of these results is two-fold, showing that the Hi3 quantification methodology is robust for a broad range of proteins and indicating that the manufacturing process currently used for the production of the Bexsero(®) DOMV components is highly reproducible and consistent.

Bactericidal antibody against a representative epidemiological meningococcal serogroup B panel confirms that MATS underestimates 4CMenB vaccine strain coverage.

BACKGROUND: 4CMenB (Bexsero), a vaccine developed against invasive meningococcal disease caused by capsular group B strains (MenB), was recently licensed for use by the European Medicines Agency. Assessment of 4CMenB strain coverage in specific epidemiologic settings is of primary importance to predict vaccination impact on the burden of disease. The Meningococcal Antigen Typing System (MATS) was developed to predict 4CMenB strain coverage, using serum bactericidal antibody assay with human complement (hSBA) data from a diverse panel of strains not representative of any specific epidemiology. OBJECTIVE: To experimentally validate the accuracy of MATS-based predictions against strains representative of a specific epidemiologic setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a stratified sampling method to identify a representative sample from all MenB disease isolates collected from England and Wales in 2007-2008, tested the strains in the hSBA assay with pooled sera from infant and adolescent vaccinees, and compared these results with MATS. MATS predictions and hSBA results were significantly associated (P=0.022). MATS predicted coverage of 70% (95% CI, 55-85%) was largely confirmed by 88% killing in the hSBA (95% CI, 72-95%). MATS had 78% accuracy and 96% positive predictive value against hSBA. CONCLUSION: MATS is a conservative predictor of strain coverage by the 4CMenB vaccine in infants and adolescents.

Predicted strain coverage of a meningococcal multicomponent vaccine (4CMenB) in Europe: a qualitative and quantitative assessment.

BACKGROUND: A novel multicomponent vaccine against meningococcal capsular group B (MenB) disease contains four major components: factor-H-binding protein, neisserial heparin binding antigen, neisserial adhesin A, and outer-membrane vesicles derived from the strain NZ98/254. Because the public health effect of the vaccine, 4CMenB (Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics, Siena, Italy), is unclear, we assessed the predicted strain coverage in Europe. METHODS: We assessed invasive MenB strains isolated mainly in the most recent full epidemiological year in England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, and Norway. Meningococcal antigen typing system (MATS) results were linked to multilocus sequence typing and antigen sequence data. To investigate whether generalisation of coverage applied to the rest of Europe, we also assessed isolates from the Czech Republic and Spain. FINDINGS: 1052 strains collected from July, 2007, to June, 2008, were assessed from England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, and Norway. All MenB strains contained at least one gene encoding a major antigen in the vaccine. MATS predicted that 78% of all MenB strains would be killed by postvaccination sera (95% CI 63-90, range of point estimates 73-87% in individual country panels). Half of all strains and 64% of covered strains could be targeted by bactericidal antibodies against more than one vaccine antigen. Results for the 108 isolates from the Czech Republic and 300 from Spain were consistent with those for the other countries. INTERPRETATION: MATS analysis showed that a multicomponent vaccine could protect against a substantial proportion of invasive MenB strains isolated in Europe. Monitoring of antigen expression, however, will be needed in the future. FUNDING: Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics.