The Evolution of Excess Deaths in the United States During the First 2 Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Understanding consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic requires information on the excess mortality resulting from it. Multiple studies have examined excess deaths during the pandemic's initial stages, but how these have changed over time is unclear. National- and state-level death counts and population data from 2009 to 2022 were used in this analysis to evaluate excess fatalities from March 2020 to February 2021 and March 2021 to February 2022, with deaths from earlier years used to project baseline counts. The outcomes were total, group-specific, cause-specific, and age-by-cause excess fatalities, and numbers and percentages directly involving COVID-19. Excess deaths declined from 655,735 (95% confidence interval: 619,028, 691,980) during the first pandemic year to 586,505 (95% confidence interval: 532,823, 639,205) in the second. The reductions were particularly large for Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, seniors, and residents of states with high vaccination rates. Excess deaths increased from the first to second year for persons younger than 65 years and in low-vaccination states. Excess mortality from some diseases declined, but those from alcohol, drug, vehicle, and homicide causes likely increased between the first and second pandemic year, especially for prime-age and younger individuals. The share of excess fatalities involving COVID-19 decreased modestly over time, with little change in its role as an underlying versus contributing cause of death.

Excess deaths in the United States during the first year of COVID-19.

Accurately determining the number of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is hard. The most important challenge is determining the counterfactual count of baseline deaths that would have occurred in its absence. Flexible estimation methods were used here to provide this baseline number and plausibility of the resulting estimates was evaluated by examining how changes between baseline and actual prior year deaths compared to historical year-over-year changes during the previous decade. Similar comparisons were used to examine the reasonableness of excess death estimates obtained in prior research. Total, group-specific and cause-specific excess deaths in the U.S. from March 2020 through February 2021 were calculated using publicly available data covering all deaths from March 2009 through December 2020 and provisional data for January 2021 and February 2021. The estimates indicate that there were 649,411 (95% CI: 600,133 to 698,689) excess deaths in the U.S. from 3/20-2/21, a 23% (95% CI: 21%-25%) increase over baseline, with 82.9% (95% CI: 77.0% - 89.7%) of these attributed directly to COVID-19. There were substantial differences across population groups and causes in the ratio of actual-to-baseline deaths, and in the contribution of COVID-19 to excess mortality. Prior research has probably often underestimated baseline mortality and so overstated both excess deaths and the percentage of them attributed to non-COVID-19 causes.

Drug poisoning deaths in the United States, 1999-2012: a statistical adjustment analysis.

BACKGROUND: Drug poisoning mortality in the US has risen rapidly but the drugs involved are frequently unspecified on death certificates. METHODS: Reported and adjusted proportions of specific drug types involved in fatal drug poisonings were calculated using vital statistics mortality data from 1999 to 2012. The adjusted proportions were those predicted to occur if at least one specific type of drug had been identified on the death certificates of all poisoning fatalities. RESULTS: Adjusted involvement rates of opioid analgesic mentions in 2012 were 54.3 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 53.6 %-55 %), 40.8 % higher than the reported 38.6 % rate. Adjusted rates for all narcotics, other narcotics, sedatives, or psychotropics, and multiple drug use were 81.5 % (95 % CI: 80.9 %-82.2 %), 38.4 % (95 % CI: 37.8 %-39 %), 30 % (95 % CI: 29.4 %-30.7 %), 26 % (95 % CI: 25.4 %-26.6 %) and 42.8 % (95 % CI: 42.1 %-43.5 %) in 2012, compared to reported proportions of 60.7, 27.9, 18.7, 18 and 26.9 %. The adjustments typically had similar or slightly smaller effects on the estimates in 1999, and larger impacts on subcategories of drug types such benzodiazepines and antipsychotic medications. Based on the adjusted proportions, 22,534, 15,933, 12,457, 10,798, and 17,670 drug deaths in 2012 were estimated to involve opioid analgesics, other narcotics, sedatives, psychotropic medications, and drug combinations, compared to death certificate reports of 16,007, 11,567, 7,754, 7,467, and 11,176. CONCLUSIONS: Death certificates substantially understate the involvement of opioid analgesics, sedatives, psychotropics, and drug combinations in fatal drug poisonings. Adjustment procedures that account for cases where only unspecified drugs are reported on death certificates provide more accurate information.

Health Effects of Economic Crises.

This analysis summarizes prior research and uses national, US state and county-level data from 1976 to 2013 to examine whether the mortality effects of economic crises differ in kind from those of the more typical fluctuations. The tentative conclusion is that economic crises affect mortality rates (and presumably other measures of health) in the same way as less severe downturns - leading to improvements in physical health. The effects of severe national recessions in the USA appear to have a beneficial effect on mortality that is roughly twice as strong as that predicted by the elevated unemployment rates alone, while the higher predicted rate of suicides during typical periods of economic weakness is approximately offset during severe recessions. No consistent pattern is obtained for more localized economic crises occurring at the state level - some estimates suggest larger protective mortality effects while others indicate offsetting deleterious consequences. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Child care subsidies and the school readiness of children of immigrants.

This study is the first to test whether receipt of a federal child care subsidy is associated with children of immigrants' school readiness skills. Using nationally representative data (n ≈ 2,900), this study estimates the associations between subsidy receipt at age 4 and kindergarten cognitive and social outcomes, for children of immigrant versus native-born parents. Among children of immigrants, subsidized center-based care (vs. subsidized and unsubsidized home-based care) was positively linked with reading. Among children of native-born parents, those in subsidized center care displayed poorer math skills than those in unsubsidized centers, and more externalizing problems than those in unsubsidized home-based care.

Higher food prices may threaten food security status among American low-income households with children.

Children in food-insecure households are more likely to experience poorer health function and worse academic achievement. To investigate the relation between economic environmental factors and food insecurity among children, we examined the relation between general and specific food prices (fast food, fruits and vegetables, beverages) and risk of low (LFS) and very low food security (VLFS) status among low-income American households with children. Using information for 27,900 child-year observations from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 linked with food prices obtained from the Cost of Living Data of the Council for Community and Economic Research, formerly known as the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers' Association, fixed effects models were estimated within stratified income groups. Higher overall food prices were associated with increased risk of LFS and VLFS (coefficient = 0.617; P < 0.05). Higher fast food and fruit and vegetable prices also contributed to higher risk of food insecurity (coefficient = 0.632, P < 0.01 for fast food; coefficient = 0.879, P < 0.01 for fruits and vegetables). However, increasing beverage prices, including the prices of soft drinks, orange juice, and coffee, had a protective effect on food security status, even when controlling for general food prices. Thus, although food price changes were strongly related to food security status among low-income American households with children, the effects were not uniform across types of food. These relations should be accounted for when implementing policies that change specific food prices.

Marijuana legalization and opioid deaths.

Many states have legalized marijuana over the last two decades, initially for medical purposes and more recently for recreational consumption. Despite prior research, it remains unclear how these policies are related to rates of opioid-involved overdose deaths, which have trended rapidly upwards over time. We examine this question in two ways. First, we replicate and extend previous investigations to show that the prior empirical results are frequently fragile to the choice of specifications and time periods, and probably provide an overly optimistic assessment of the effects of marijuana legalization on opioid deaths. Second, we present new estimates suggesting that legal medical marijuana, particularly when available through retail dispensaries, is associated with higher opioid mortality. The results for recreational marijuana, while less reliable, also indicate that retail sales may be correlated with greater death rates relative to the counterfactual of no legal cannabis. A likely mechanism for these effects is the emergence of illicit fentanyl, which has increased the riskiness of even small positive effects of cannabis legalization on the consumption of opioids.

Estimating Drug Involvement in Fatal Overdoses With Incomplete Information.

INTRODUCTION: Death certificates provide incomplete information on the specific drug categories involved in fatal overdoses. The accuracy of previously developed corrections for this and modifications to them was examined. Uncorrected mortality rates were compared with rates from the preferred correction models. METHODS: Data were obtained for the universe of 932,364 drug overdoses in the U.S. between 1999 and 2020, including 769,982 (82.6%) with a drug classification and 162,382 (17.4%) without, from the National Center for Health Statistics Multiple Cause of Death files. Opioid and cocaine involvement for unclassified overdoses were estimated using multiple approaches. Prediction accuracy was assessed as the mean absolute deviation between actual and estimated involvement for a test sample with known drug involvement. Corrected death rates from preferred models were compared with uncorrected rates. Analyses were conducted in 2022-2023. RESULTS: Previous regression-based corrections that controlled for decedent characteristics can be improved upon by adding state-fixed effects as covariates. Once this is done, supplementary controls for county characteristics or contributory causes of death do not materially improve prediction accuracy. Properly designed naïve models, which distribute unspecified drug deaths proportionately to specified deaths, often provide similar results and, for county-level analyses, supply the most accurate predictions. Uncorrected results substantially understate the levels of opioid and cocaine involvement and can either understate or overstate changes over time. CONCLUSIONS: Failing to correct for incomplete information on death certificates leads to inaccurate counts of deaths from specific categories of drugs, such as opioids. However, relatively simple corrections are available that substantially improve accuracy.

Inheritances, health and death.

We examine how wealth shocks, in the form of inheritances, affect the mortality rates, health status and health behaviors of older adults, using data from eight waves of the Health and Retirement Survey. Our main finding is that bequests do not have substantial effects on health, although improvements in quality-of-life are possible. This absence occurs despite increases in out-of-pocket spending on healthcare and in the utilization of medical services, especially discretionary and non-lifesaving types such as dental care. Nor can we find a convincing indication of changes in lifestyles that offset the benefits of increased medical care. Inheritances are associated with higher alcohol consumption, but with no change in smoking or exercise and a possible decrease in obesity.

Pandemic And Recession Effects On Mortality In The US During The First Year Of COVID-19.

There were almost 700,000 excess deaths in the US from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2021, resulting from two often counterbalancing mechanisms: those predicted by changes in unemployment rates occurring during this period, referred to here as the "recession effect," and those predicted by the "pandemic effect," which reflects direct consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19, accompanying impacts on health and medical care, and other changes in mortality not caused by greater joblessness. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, this study decomposed total mortality in this period into pandemic and recession effects, with additional estimates by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and fourteen causes. Although the pandemic effect increased many types of mortality, the recession effect reduced most types of mortality. Without the recession effect, there would have been nearly 40,000 more deaths than actually occurred. However, there were disparate impacts, particularly for external causes. Vehicular and alcohol-related fatalities and homicides rose because of strong pandemic effects. In contrast, the recession effect accounted for a greater share of the rise in drug mortality. Offsetting pandemic and recession effects resulted in a decrease in the number of suicides. Understanding these diverse impacts provides useful lessons for policy efforts to mitigate the current and future health pandemics.

Estimated Prevalence of and Factors Associated With Clinically Significant Anxiety and Depression Among US Adults During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Importance: Claims of dramatic increases in clinically significant anxiety and depression early in the COVID-19 pandemic came from online surveys with extremely low or unreported response rates. Objective: To examine trend data in a calibrated screening for clinically significant anxiety and depression among adults in the only US government benchmark probability trend survey not disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study used the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a monthly state-based trend survey conducted over the telephone. Participants were adult respondents in the 50 US states and District of Columbia who were surveyed March to December 2020 compared with the same months in 2017 to 2019. Exposures: Monthly state COVID-19 death rates. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated 30-day prevalence of clinically significant anxiety and depression based on responses to a single BRFSS item calibrated to a score of 6 or greater on the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.84). All percentages are weighted based on BRFSS calibration weights. Results: Overall, there were 1 429 354 respondents, with 1 093 663 in 2017 to 2019 (600 416 [51.1%] women; 87 153 [11.8%] non-Hispanic Black; 826 334 [61.5%] non-Hispanic White; 411 254 [27.8%] with college education; and 543 619 [56.8] employed) and 335 691 in 2020 (182 351 [51.3%] women; 25 517 [11.7%] non-Hispanic Black; 250 333 [60.5%] non-Hispanic White; 130 642 [29.3%] with college education; and 168 921 [54.9%] employed). Median within-state response rates were 45.9% to 49.4% in 2017 to 2019 and 47.9% in 2020. Estimated 30-day prevalence of clinically significant anxiety and depression was 0.4 (95% CI, 0.0 to 0.7) percentage points higher in March to December 2020 (12.4%) than March to December 2017 to 2019 (12.1%). This estimated increase was limited, however, to students (2.4 [95% CI, 0.8 to 3.9] percentage points) and the employed (0.9 [95% CI, 0.5 to 1.4] percentage points). Estimated prevalence decreased among the short-term unemployed (-1.8 [95% CI, -3.1 to -0.5] percentage points) and those unable to work (-4.2 [95% CI, -5.3 to -3.2] percentage points), but did not change significantly among the long-term unemployed (-2.1 [95% CI, -4.5 to 0.5] percentage points), homemakers (0.8 [95% CI, -0.3 to 1.9] percentage points), or the retired (0.1 [95% CI, -0.6 to 0.8] percentage points). The increase in anxiety and depression prevalence among employed people was positively associated with the state-month COVID-19 death rate (1.8 [95% CI, 1.2 to 2.5] percentage points when high and 0.0 [95% CI, -0.7 to 0.6] percentage points when low) and was elevated among women compared with men (2.0 [95% CI, 1.4 to 2.5] percentage points vs 0.2 [95% CI, -0.1 to 0.6] percentage points), Non-Hispanic White individuals compared with Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black individuals (1.3 [95% CI, 0.6 to 1.9] percentage points vs 1.1 [95% CI, -0.2 to 2.5] percentage points and 0.7 [95% CI, -0.1 to 1.5] percentage points), and those with college educations compared with less than high school educations (2.5 [95% CI, 1.9 to 3.1] percentage points vs -0.6 [95% CI, -2.7 to 1.4] percentage points). Conclusions and Relevance: In this survey study, clinically significant US adult anxiety and depression increased less during 2020 than suggested by online surveys. However, this modest aggregate increase could mask more substantial increases in key population segments (eg, first responders) and might have become larger in 2021 and 2022.

Has mortality risen disproportionately for the least educated?

We examine whether the least educated population groups experienced the worst mortality trends at the beginning of the 21st century by measuring changes in mortality across education quartiles. We document sharply differing gender patterns. Among women, mortality trends improved fairly monotonically with education. Conversely, male trends for the lowest three education quartiles were often similar. For both sexes, the gap in mortality between the top 25 percent and the bottom 75 percent is growing. However, there are many groups for whom these patterns are reversed - with better experiences for the less educated - or where the differences are statistically indistinguishable.

Federal Opioid Grant Funding Favors Least Populous States, Not States With Greatest Need.

The federal government provides grants to states to assist with their efforts to ameliorate the opioid epidemic. However, it is not currently understood how well these funds are targeted toward the areas with the greatest need. To address this, we constructed a database of federal grants addressing opioid and other substance use problems and investigated how closely grant dollars awarded in fiscal years 2017 and 2018 aligned with the severity of state opioid problems. Using our preferred measure, roughly one-sixth of funds, totaling $1.5 billion, would need to have been reallocated to provide equal opioid severity-adjusted funding across states; less populous states were typically the most generously funded. Grant targeting could be improved with more rigorous efforts to account for geographic differences in the severity of opioid problems. We identify problems in some frequently used targeting benchmarks, where state prevalence rates are measured with low precision.

The impact of worker health on long term care: implications for nursing managers.

Long-term care (LTC) facilities face many challenges, including retention of qualified and caring staff and maintaining high-quality care. In 2008, the Institute of Medicine (IOM)(1) reported widespread consensus that there are insufficient numbers of competent licensed and direct care staff to manage, supervise, and deliver high-quality care to the elderly population. Although examples of excellence in nursing home care exist, average quality of care has remained persistently low,(2) and little progress has been made to improve safety in LTC.(3) The Nursing Home Reform Act (which was included in the 1987 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act) mandates minimum staffing levels in Medicare and Medicaid certified LTC facilities. Although research has documented the importance of adequate staffing for quality of care, little attention has been placed on the productivity of staff and how this may impact care. The purpose of this article is to discuss the issue of worker presenteeism (reduced productivity due to health problems) and how this may be affecting quality of resident care. Strategies for nurse managers to recognize and address presenteeism are also discussed.

Opioid Deaths and Local Healthcare Intensity: A Longitudinal Analysis of the U.S. Population, 2003-2014.

INTRODUCTION: This study examines the association between local healthcare intensity and drug death rates. METHODS: County-level drug death rates were computed for 2003-2014 using vital statistics data adjusted for incomplete reporting of drug involvement. A county-level healthcare intensity index was constructed using Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care data. Linear regression and dose-response models were estimated for all residents and for population subgroups to analyze the relationship between healthcare intensity and drug death rates, as well as for 7 indicators of healthcare quality. Data collection and analysis were conducted in 2018 and 2019. RESULTS: Linear estimates indicated a positive correlation between healthcare intensity and opioid-involved drug death rates. Dose-response models revealed that the association was especially pronounced for the 2 highest healthcare intensity quintiles. Moving from the lowest to the highest healthcare intensity quintile was associated with a 2.14 (95% CI=1.56, 2.72) per 100,000 rise in opioid-involved drug death rates and a 25.1% (95% CI=18.3%, 31.9%) increase from the base rate of 8.54 per 100,000. Corresponding associations were larger in absolute terms for individuals who were male, white, aged 20-44 years, and not college educated than for their counterparts, but similar in percentages, except for 2 minority racial groups and seniors. Non-opioid drug death rates were unrelated to healthcare intensity. High healthcare intensity was associated with worse healthcare quality for 6 of 7 indicators. CONCLUSIONS: In the U.S., between 2003 and 2014, high medical care intensity was associated with elevated opioid death rates and lower healthcare quality.

California's paid family leave law improves maternal psychological health.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of California's first in the nation paid family leave policy on maternal postpartum psychological distress for women overall and for disadvantaged groups. METHODS: We use restricted data from 11 waves of the National Health Interview Survey, from 2000 to 2010, to examine mothers with children under the age of 12 months (n = 7379). Outcomes included three measures obtained from the six-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale: an aggregated score and thresholds for mild and moderate psychological distress. For inference, we used synthetic control models, comparing mothers with infants in California to mothers with infants in the control group, pre-law and post-law. RESULTS: Access to paid family leave was associated with a 0.636-point decrease (95% CI = -1.202, -0.070) in postpartum psychological distress symptoms among mothers with infants, representing a 27.6% decrease from the pre-treatment mean. It was also associated with a 9.1 percentage point reduction (95% CI = -17.8, -0.4) in mild postpartum distress, a 38.4% reduction from the pre-treatment mean. Populations that typically lack access to paid family leave, particularly single and younger mothers, may have seen even larger effects. CONCLUSIONS: Paid family leave was associated with improved mental health for California mothers, suggesting that expansions of state or federal paid family leave policies have the potential to improve maternal postpartum health.

Age, socioeconomic status and obesity growth.

We use panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to examine how body weight changes with age for a cohort moving through early adulthood, to investigate how the age-obesity gradient differs with socioeconomic status (SES) and to study channels for these SES disparities. Our results show first that weight increases with age and is inversely related to SES during childhood. Second, the obesity gradient widens over the lifecycle, consistent with research on other health outcomes. Third, a substantial portion of the "effect" of early life conditions operates through race/ethnicity and the translation of advantaged family backgrounds during childhood into higher levels of subsequent education. By contrast, little of the SES gap appears to propagate through household composition, family income or health behaviors. Fourth, adult SES has independent effects after controlling for childhood status.

Drivers of the fatal drug epidemic.

This study examines the contributions of the medium-run evolution of local economies and of changes in the "drug environment' in explaining county-level changes in drug and related mortality rates from 1999 to 2015. A primary finding is that drug mortality rates did increase more in counties experiencing relative economic decline than in those with more robust growth, but that the relationship is weak and mostly accounted for by confounding factors. In the preferred estimates, less than one-tenth of the rise in drug and opioid-involved fatality rates is explained and the contribution is even smaller, quite possibly zero, when allowing for plausible selection on unobservables. Conversely, the risk of drug deaths varies systematically over time across population subgroups in ways that are consistent with an important role for the public health environment related to the availability and cost of drugs. In particular, the relative risk and share of drug mortality increased rapidly for males and younger adults, compared to their counterparts, when the primary driver of the fatal drug epidemic transitioned from prescription to illicit opioids. These results suggest that efforts to improve local economies, while desirable for other reasons, are not likely to yield significant reductions in overdose mortality, but with greater potential for interventions directly addressing the drug environment.

Nonopioid Overdose Death Rates Rose Almost As Fast As Those Involving Opioids, 1999-2016.

The number of Americans dying from drug overdoses has risen rapidly, but the contribution of nonopioid drugs to this growth is not well understood. Using vital statistics data from the universe of deaths among US residents in the period 1999-2016, I calculated levels of and increases in overall nonopioid fatal overdose rates and those for subgroups stratified by manner of death, sex, race/ethnicity, and age. Mortality rates were also calculated separately for sedatives, stimulants, antidepressants, and cocaine. Recently developed methods were used to correct for the incomplete reporting of drug involvement on death certificates. From 1999 to 2016 the number of nonopioid drug deaths rose 274 percent, and deaths per 100,000 population rose by 223 percent. Over the same period, opioid-involved fatality counts and rates grew by 371 percent and 307 percent, respectively. Fatal overdose rates involving stimulants increased more than tenfold, with slower growth but higher rates for deaths involving sedatives and cocaine. Midlife non-Hispanic whites generally experienced the highest levels and rise in nonopioid death rates, but cocaine fatality rates were particularly common among nonwhite or Hispanic males ages 40-59. Policies designed to curb the opioid epidemic are probably helpful in reducing nonopioid deaths, but targeted interventions may also be needed.

Maternal Employment and Adolescent Development.

This study investigates how maternal employment is related to the cognitive development and body weight of 10 and 11 year olds, controlling for a wide variety of child, mother and family characteristics. The results suggest that limited market work benefits youths who are relatively "disadvantaged" and even long hours, which occur infrequently, are unlikely to leave them much worse off. By contrast, maternal labor supply is estimated to have more uniformly harmful consequences for "advantaged" adolescents. The negative cognitive effects for these youths probably partly occur because maternal labor supply reduces the time spent in enriching home environments. Some of the growth in obesity may be related to determinants of excess weight common to the child and mother.