Social gradients in health and social care costs: Analysis of linked electronic health records in Kent, UK.

OBJECTIVES: Research into the socio-economic patterning of health and social care costs in the UK has so far been limited to examining only particular aspects of healthcare. In this study, we explore the social gradients in overall healthcare and social care costs, as well as in the disaggregated costs by cost category. STUDY DESIGN: We calculated the social gradient in health and social care costs by cost category using a linked electronic health record data set for Kent, a county in South East England. We performed a cross-sectional analysis on a sample of 323,401 residents in Kent older than 55 years to assess the impact of neighbourhood deprivation on mean annual per capita costs in 2016/17. METHODS: Patient-level costs were estimated from activity data for the financial year 2016/17 and were extracted alongside key patient characteristics. Mean costs were calculated for each area deprivation quintile based on the index of multiple deprivation of the neighbourhood (lower super output area) in which the patient lived. Cost subcategories were analysed across primary care, secondary care, social care, community care and mental health. RESULTS: The mean annual per capita cost increased with deprivation across each deprivation quintile, with a cost of £1205 in the most affluent quintile, compared with £1623 in the most deprived quintile, a 35% cost increase. Social gradients were found across all cost subcategories. CONCLUSIONS: Health inequalities in the population older than 55 years in Kent are associated with health and social care costs of £109m, equivalent to 15% of the estimated total expenditure in this age group. Such significant costs suggest that appropriate interventions to reduce socio-economic inequalities have the potential to substantially improve population health and, depending on how much investment they require, may even result in cost savings.

An evaluation of the clinical and cost-effectiveness of alternative care locations for critically ill adult patients with acute traumatic brain injury.

BACKGROUND: For critically ill adult patients with acute traumatic brain injury (TBI), we assessed the clinical and cost-effectiveness of: (a) Management in dedicated neurocritical care units versus combined neuro/general critical care units within neuroscience centres. (b) 'Early' transfer to a neuroscience centre versus 'no or late' transfer for those who present at a non-neuroscience centre. METHODS: The Risk Adjustment In Neurocritical care (RAIN) Study included prospective admissions following acute TBI to 67 UK adult critical care units during 2009-11. Data were collected on baseline case-mix, mortality, resource use, and at six months, Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE), and quality of life (QOL) (EuroQol 5D-3L). We report incremental effectiveness, costs and cost per Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY) of the alternative care locations, adjusting for baseline differences with validated risk prediction models. We tested the robustness of results in sensitivity analyses. FINDINGS: Dedicated neurocritical care unit patients (N = 1324) had similar six-month mortality, higher QOL (mean gain 0.048, 95% CI -0.002 to 0.099) and increased average costs compared with those managed in combined neuro/general units (N = 1341), with a lifetime cost per QALY gained of £14,000. 'Early' transfer to a neuroscience centre (N = 584) was associated with lower mortality (odds ratio 0.52, 0.34-0.80), higher QOL for survivors (mean gain 0.13, 0.032-0.225), but positive incremental costs (£15,001, £11,123 to £18,880) compared with 'late or no transfer' (N = 263). The lifetime cost per QALY gained for 'early' transfer was £11,000. CONCLUSIONS: For critically ill adult patients with acute TBI, within neuroscience centres management in dedicated neurocritical care units versus combined neuro/general units led to improved QoL and higher costs, on average, but these differences were not statistically significant. This study finds that 'early' transfer to a neuroscience centre is associated with reduced mortality, improvement in QOL and is cost-effective.

An integrated approach to evaluating alternative risk prediction strategies: a case study comparing alternative approaches for preventing invasive fungal disease.

OBJECTIVES: This article proposes an integrated approach to the development, validation, and evaluation of new risk prediction models illustrated with the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation study, which developed risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive fungal disease (IFD). METHODS: Our decision-analytical model compared alternative strategies for preventing IFD at up to three clinical decision time points (critical care admission, after 24 hours, and end of day 3), followed with antifungal prophylaxis for those judged "high" risk versus "no formal risk assessment." We developed prognostic models to predict the risk of IFD before critical care unit discharge, with data from 35,455 admissions to 70 UK adult, critical care units, and validated the models externally. The decision model was populated with positive predictive values and negative predictive values from the best-fitting risk models. We projected lifetime cost-effectiveness and expected value of partial perfect information for groups of parameters. RESULTS: The risk prediction models performed well in internal and external validation. Risk assessment and prophylaxis at the end of day 3 was the most cost-effective strategy at the 2% and 1% risk threshold. Risk assessment at each time point was the most cost-effective strategy at a 0.5% risk threshold. Expected values of partial perfect information were high for positive predictive values or negative predictive values (£11 million-£13 million) and quality-adjusted life-years (£11 million). CONCLUSIONS: It is cost-effective to formally assess the risk of IFD for non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. This integrated approach to developing and evaluating risk models is useful for informing clinical practice and future research investment.

Cost and logistics of alternative roll-out options for implementing human papillomavirus testing as a triage in cervical screening: results of the sentinel sites study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have indicated that human papillomavirus (HPV) testing as a triage for managing equivocal cytology is cost-effective. The aim of this study was to assess the costs of alternative roll-out options. METHODS: Detailed cost estimates were collected from six laboratories where HPV triage had been implemented. Costs were assessed for the two different service delivery models that were implemented; a 'hub and spoke model' of central HPV testing in a microbiology laboratory with separate cytology laboratories, and an 'integrated model' where HPV testing was conducted within the cytology laboratory. RESULTS: Comparison of alternative delivery models indicated that setting up HPV processing within existing cytology laboratory, i.e., an 'integrated cytology/HPV laboratory' generated savings in staff time amounting to between £2.54 and 4.86 per sample processed. Running full HPV testing batches was also an important consideration. For full batches to be run on a twice weekly basis requires having no more than two laboratories per Strategic Health Authority. CONCLUSIONS: To be cost-efficient, and to meet turn-around times, HPV testing needs to be conducted at integrated cytology/HPV testing centres with sufficient throughput to run full batches of HPV tests.

The financial and service implications of splitting fixed-dose antiretroviral drugs - a case study.

In 2010/2011, regional commissioners withdrew payment for the fixed-dose combination Combivir, forcing a switch to component drugs. This was deemed clinically acceptable and annual savings of £44 k expected. We estimated the true costs of switching and examined patient outcomes. Information for 46 patients using Combivir was extracted from case notes for each clinical contact in the 12 months pre- and post-switch (clinician seen, tests, antiretrovirals). Post-switch care costs £93/patient more annually versus pre-switch (95% CI £424 to £609), yielding £4278/year more post-switch for all patients. Drug and pathology costs were more expensive post-switch and extra clinical visits required. None of these results were statistically significant. Forty-two per cent of patients switched directly or in the subsequent year to an alternative fixed-dose combination rather than generics. Costs in this group were significantly higher post-switch driven by drug cost. Six patients (13%) reported problems with the switch including confusion around dosing and new side effects. As less-expensive generic antiretroviral drugs become available, it may appear cheaper to switch from fixed-dose combinations to component drugs. However, the additional clinical costs involved may outweigh the initial cost savings of the drugs and switching may cause confusion for some patients, risking loss of adherence.

Development and validation of a risk model for identification of non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive Candida infection: the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation (FIRE) Study.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that invasive fungal disease (IFD) is more likely to occur in non-neutropenic patients in critical care units. A number of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have evaluated antifungal prophylaxis in non-neutropenic, critically ill patients, demonstrating a reduction in the risk of proven IFD and suggesting a reduction in mortality. It is necessary to establish a method to identify and target antifungal prophylaxis at those patients at highest risk of IFD, who stand to benefit most from any antifungal prophylaxis strategy. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate risk models to identify non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients at high risk of invasive Candida infection, who would benefit from antifungal prophylaxis, and to assess the cost-effectiveness of targeting antifungal prophylaxis to high-risk patients based on these models. DESIGN: Systematic review, prospective data collection, statistical modelling, economic decision modelling and value of information analysis. SETTING: Ninety-six UK adult general critical care units. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive admissions to participating critical care units. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Invasive fungal disease, defined as a blood culture or sample from a normally sterile site showing yeast/mould cells in a microbiological or histopathological report. For statistical and economic modelling, the primary outcome was invasive Candida infection, defined as IFD-positive for Candida species. RESULTS: Systematic review: Thirteen articles exploring risk factors, risk models or clinical decision rules for IFD in critically ill adult patients were identified. Risk factors reported to be significantly associated with IFD were included in the final data set for the prospective data collection. DATA COLLECTION: Data were collected on 60,778 admissions between July 2009 and March 2011. Overall, 383 patients (0.6%) were admitted with or developed IFD. The majority of IFD patients (94%) were positive for Candida species. The most common site of infection was blood (55%). The incidence of IFD identified in unit was 4.7 cases per 1000 admissions, and for unit-acquired IFD was 3.2 cases per 1000 admissions. Statistical modelling: Risk models were developed at admission to the critical care unit, 24 hours and the end of calendar day 3. The risk model at admission had fair discrimination (c-index 0.705). Discrimination improved at 24 hours (c-index 0.823) and this was maintained at the end of calendar day 3 (c-index 0.835). There was a drop in model performance in the validation sample. Economic decision model: Irrespective of risk threshold, incremental quality-adjusted life-years of prophylaxis strategies compared with current practice were positive but small compared with the incremental costs. Incremental net benefits of each prophylaxis strategy compared with current practice were all negative. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that current practice was the strategy most likely to be cost-effective. Across all parameters in the decision model, results indicated that the value of further research for the whole population of interest might be high relative to the research costs. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation (FIRE) Study, derived from a highly representative sample of adult general critical care units across the UK, indicated a low incidence of IFD among non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients. IFD was associated with substantially higher mortality, more intensive organ support and longer length of stay. Risk modelling produced simple risk models that provided acceptable discrimination for identifying patients at 'high risk' of invasive Candida infection. Results of the economic model suggested that the current most cost-effective treatment strategy for prophylactic use of systemic antifungal agents among non-neutropenic, critically ill adult patients admitted to NHS adult general critical care units is a strategy of no risk assessment and no antifungal prophylaxis. FUNDING: Funding for this study was provided by the Health Technology Assessment programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

MAVARIC - a comparison of automation-assisted and manual cervical screening: a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: The principal objective was to compare automation-assisted reading of cervical cytology with manual reading using the histological end point of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade II (CIN2) or worse (CIN2+). Secondary objectives included (i) an assessment of the slide ranking facility of the Becton Dickinson (BD) FocalPoint™ Slide Profiler (Becton Dickinson, Franklin Lakes, NJ, USA), especially 'No Further Review', (ii) a comparison of the two approved automated systems, the ThinPrep® Imaging System (Hologic, Bedford, MA, USA) and the BD FocalPoint Guided Screener Imaging System, and (iii) automated versus manual in terms of productivity and cost-effectiveness. DESIGN: A 1 : 2 randomised allocation of slides to either manual reading or automation-assisted paired with manual reading. Cytoscreeners were blinded to whether samples would be read only manually or manually paired with automated. Slide reading procedures followed real-life laboratory protocol to produce a final result and, for paired readings, the worse result determined the management. Costs per event were estimated and combined with productivity to produce a cost per slide, per woman and per CIN2+ and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III (CIN3) or worse (CIN3+) lesion detected. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using cost per CIN2+ detected. Lifetime cost-effectiveness in terms of life-years and quality-adjusted life-years was estimated using a mathematical model. SETTING: Liquid-based cytology samples were obtained in primary care, and a small number of abnormal samples were obtained from local colposcopy clinics, from different women, in order to enrich the proportion of abnormals. All of the samples were read in a single large service laboratory. Liquid residues used for human papillomavirus (HPV) triage were tested (with Hybrid Capture 2, Qiagen, Crawley, UK) in a specialist virology laboratory in Edinburgh, UK. Histopathology was read by a specialist gynaecological pathology team blinded to HPV results and type of reading. PARTICIPANTS: Samples were obtained from women aged 25-64 years undergoing primary cervical screening in Greater Manchester, UK, with small proportions from women outside this age range and from women undergoing colposcopy. INTERVENTIONS: The principal intervention was automation-assisted reading of cervical cytology slides which was paired with a manual reading of the same slide. Low-grade cytological abnormalities (borderline and mild dyskaryosis) were triaged with HPV testing to direct colposcopy referral. Women with high-grade cytology were referred for colposcopy and those with negative cytology were returned to recall. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The principal outcome measure was the sensitivity of automation-assisted reading relative to manual for the detection of CIN2+. A secondary outcome measure was cost-effectiveness of each type of reading to detect CIN2+. The study was powered to detect a relative sensitivity difference equivalent to an absolute difference of 5%. RESULTS: The principal finding was that automated reading was 8% less sensitive relative to manual, 6.3% in absolute terms. 'No further review' was very reliable and, if restricted to routine screening samples, < 1% of CIN2+ would have been missed. Automated and manual were very similar in terms of cost-effectiveness despite a 60%-80% increase in productivity for automation-assisted reading. CONCLUSIONS: The significantly reduced sensitivity of automated reading, combined with uncertainty over cost-effectiveness, suggests no justification at present to recommend its introduction. The reliability of 'no further review' warrants further consideration as a means of saving staff time. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN66377374. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 15, No. 3. See the HTA programme website for further project information.