The modified south African triage scale system for mortality prediction in resource-constrained emergency surgical centers: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The South African Triage Scale (SATS) was developed to facilitate patient triage in emergency departments (EDs) and is used by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in low-resource environments. The aim was to determine if SATS data, reason for admission, and patient age can be used to develop and validate a model predicting the in-hospital risk of death in emergency surgical centers and to compare the model's discriminative power with that of the four SATS categories alone. METHODS: We used data from a cohort hospitalized at the Nap Kenbe Surgical Hospital in Haiti from January 2013 to June 2015. We based our analysis on a multivariate logistic regression of the probability of death. Age cutoff, reason for admission categorized into nine groups according to MSF classifications, and SATS triage category (red, orange, yellow, and green) were used as candidate parameters for the analysis of factors associated with mortality. Stepwise backward elimination was performed for the selection of risk factors with retention of predictors with P < 0.05, and bootstrapping was used for internal validation. The likelihood ratio test was used to compare the combined and restricted models. These models were also applied to data from a cohort of patients from the Kunduz Trauma Center, Afghanistan, to validate mortality prediction in an external trauma patients population. RESULTS: A total of 7618 consecutive hospitalized patients from the Nap Kenbe Hospital were analyzed. Variables independently associated with in-hospital mortality were age > 45 and < = 65 years (odds ratio, 2.04), age > 65 years (odds ratio, 5.15) and the red (odds ratio, 65.08), orange (odds ratio, 3.5), and non-trauma (odds ratio, 3.15) categories. The combined model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.8723 and an AUROC corrected for optimism of 0.8601. The AUROC of the model run on the external data-set was 0.8340. The likelihood ratio test was highly significant in favor of the combined model for both the original and external data-sets. CONCLUSIONS: SATS category, patient age, and reason for admission can be used to predict in-hospital mortality. This predictive model had good discriminative ability to identify ED patients at a high risk of death and performed better than the SATS alone.

Operative trauma in low-resource settings: The experience of Médecins Sans Frontières in environments of conflict, postconflict, and disaster.

BACKGROUND: Conflicts and disasters remain prevalent in low- and middle-income countries, and injury remains a leading cause of death worldwide. The objective of this study was to describe the operative procedures performed for injury-related pathologies at facilities supported by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) to guide the planning of future responses. METHODS: A retrospective review of a prospectively collected database of all MSF procedures performed between July 2008 and June 2014 for injury-related indications was completed. Individual data points included country of project and date of procedure; age, patient sex, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists' score of each patient; indication for surgery, including mechanism of injury; operative procedure; operative urgency; operative order; type of anesthesia; and intraoperative mortality. Injury severity was stratified according to operative order and urgency. RESULTS: A total of 79,715 procedures were performed in MSF projects that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 35,756 (44.9%) were performed specifically for traumatic indications across 17 countries. Even after excluding trauma centers, 29.4% (18,329/62,288) of operative cases were for injuries. Operative trauma procedures were performed most commonly for road traffic injuries (29.9%; 10,686/35,756). The most common procedure for acute trauma was extensive wound debridement (31.6%; 3,165/10,022) whereas burn dressings were the most frequent planned reoperation (27.1%; 4,361/16,078). CONCLUSION: Trauma remains an important component of the operative care provided in humanitarian assistance. This review of procedures performed by MSF in a variety of settings provides valuable insight into demographics of trauma patients, mechanisms of injury, and surgical capabilities required in planning resource allocation for future humanitarian missions in low- and middle-income countries.