Trypanosome RNA helicase KREH2 differentially controls non-canonical editing and putative repressive structure via a novel proposed 'bifunctional' gRNA in mRNA A6.

U-insertion/deletion (U-indel) RNA editing in trypanosome mitochondria is directed by guide RNAs (gRNAs). This editing may developmentally control respiration in bloodstream forms (BSF) and insect procyclic forms (PCF). Holo-editosomes include the accessory RNA Editing Substrate Binding Complex (RESC) and RNA Editing Helicase 2 Complex (REH2C), but the specific proteins controlling differential editing remain unknown. Also, RNA editing appears highly error prone because most U-indels do not match the canonical pattern. However, despite extensive non-canonical editing of unknown functions, accurate canonical editing is required for normal cell growth. In PCF, REH2C controls editing fidelity in RESC-bound mRNAs. Here, we report that KREH2, a REH2C-associated helicase, developmentally controls programmed non-canonical editing, including an abundant 3' element in ATPase subunit 6 (A6) mRNA. The 3' element sequence is directed by a proposed novel regulatory gRNA. In PCF, KREH2 RNAi-knockdown up-regulates the 3' element, which establishes a stable structure hindering element removal by canonical initiator-gRNA-directed editing. In BSF, KREH2-knockdown does not up-regulate the 3' element but reduces its high abundance. Thus, KREH2 differentially controls extensive non-canonical editing and associated RNA structure via a novel regulatory gRNA, potentially hijacking factors as a 'molecular sponge'. Furthermore, this gRNA is bifunctional, serving in canonical CR4 mRNA editing whilst installing a structural element in A6 mRNA.

Organization of minicircle cassettes and guide RNA genes in Trypanosoma brucei.

Mitochondrial DNA of protists of order Kinetoplastida comprises thousands of interlinked circular molecules arranged in a network. There are two types of molecules called minicircles and maxicircles. Minicircles encode guide RNA (gRNA) genes whose transcripts mediate post-transcriptional editing of maxicircle encoded genes. Minicircles are diverse. The human sleeping sickness parasite Trypanosoma brucei has one of the most diverse sets of minicircle classes of all studied trypanosomatids with hundreds of different classes, each encoding one to four genes mainly within cassettes framed by 18 bp inverted repeats. A third of cassettes have no identifiable gRNA genes even though their sequence structures are similar to cassettes with identifiable genes. Only recently have almost all minicircle classes for some subspecies and isolates of T. brucei been sequenced and annotated with corresponding verification of gRNA expression by small-RNA transcriptome data. These data sets provide a rich resource for understanding the structure of minicircle classes, cassettes and gRNA genes and their transcription. Here, we provide a statistical description of the functionality, expression status, structure and sequence of gRNA genes in a differentiation-competent, laboratory-adapted strain of T. brucei We obtain a clearer definition of what is a gRNA gene. Our analysis supports the idea that many, if not all, cassettes without an identifiable gRNA gene contain decaying remnants of once functional gRNA genes. Finally, we report several new, unexplained discoveries such as the association between cassette position on the minicircle and gene expression and functionality, and the association between gene initiation sequence and anchor position.

Ecological divergence and hybridization of Neotropical Leishmania parasites.

The tropical Andes are an important natural laboratory to understand speciation in many taxa. Here we examined the evolutionary history of parasites of the Leishmania braziliensis species complex based on whole-genome sequencing of 67 isolates from 47 localities in Peru. We first show the origin of Andean Leishmania as a clade of near-clonal lineages that diverged from admixed Amazonian ancestors, accompanied by a significant reduction in genome diversity and large structural variations implicated in host-parasite interactions. Within the Andean species, patterns of population structure were strongly associated with biogeographical origin. Molecular clock and ecological niche modeling suggested that the history of diversification of the Andean lineages is limited to the Late Pleistocene and intimately associated with habitat contractions driven by climate change. These results suggest that changes in forestation over the past 150,000 y have influenced speciation and diversity of these Neotropical parasites. Second, genome-scale analyses provided evidence of meiotic-like recombination between Andean and Amazonian Leishmania species, resulting in full-genome hybrids. The mitochondrial genome of these hybrids consisted of homogeneous uniparental maxicircles, but minicircles originated from both parental species. We further show that mitochondrial minicircles-but not maxicircles-show a similar evolutionary pattern to the nuclear genome, suggesting that compatibility between nuclear-encoded mitochondrial genes and minicircle-encoded guide RNA genes is essential to maintain efficient respiration. By comparing full nuclear and mitochondrial genome ancestries, our data expand our appreciation on the genetic consequences of diversification and hybridization in parasitic protozoa.

Assembly and annotation of the mitochondrial minicircle genome of a differentiation-competent strain of Trypanosoma brucei.

Kinetoplastids are protists defined by one of the most complex mitochondrial genomes in nature, the kinetoplast. In the sleeping sickness parasite Trypanosoma brucei, the kinetoplast is a chain mail-like network of two types of interlocked DNA molecules: a few dozen ∼23-kb maxicircles (homologs of the mitochondrial genome of other eukaryotes) and thousands of ∼1-kb minicircles. Maxicircles encode components of respiratory chain complexes and the mitoribosome. Several maxicircle-encoded mRNAs undergo extensive post-transcriptional RNA editing via addition and deletion of uridines. The process is mediated by hundreds of species of minicircle-encoded guide RNAs (gRNAs), but the precise number of minicircle classes and gRNA genes was unknown. Here we present the first essentially complete assembly and annotation of the kinetoplast genome of T. brucei. We have identified 391 minicircles, encoding not only ∼930 predicted 'canonical' gRNA genes that cover nearly all known editing events (accessible via the web at http://hank.bio.ed.ac.uk), but also ∼370 'non-canonical' gRNA genes of unknown function. Small RNA transcriptome data confirmed expression of the majority of both categories of gRNAs. Finally, we have used our data set to refine definitions for minicircle structure and to explore dynamics of minicircle copy numbers.

Mitochondrial DNA is critical for longevity and metabolism of transmission stage Trypanosoma brucei.

The sleeping sickness parasite Trypanosoma brucei has a complex life cycle, alternating between a mammalian host and the tsetse fly vector. A tightly controlled developmental programme ensures parasite transmission between hosts as well as survival within them and involves strict regulation of mitochondrial activities. In the glucose-rich bloodstream, the replicative 'slender' stage is thought to produce ATP exclusively via glycolysis and uses the mitochondrial F1FO-ATP synthase as an ATP hydrolysis-driven proton pump to generate the mitochondrial membrane potential (ΔΨm). The 'procyclic' stage in the glucose-poor tsetse midgut depends on mitochondrial catabolism of amino acids for energy production, which involves oxidative phosphorylation with ATP production via the F1FO-ATP synthase. Both modes of the F1FO enzyme critically depend on FO subunit a, which is encoded in the parasite's mitochondrial DNA (kinetoplast or kDNA). Comparatively little is known about mitochondrial function and the role of kDNA in non-replicative 'stumpy' bloodstream forms, a developmental stage essential for disease transmission. Here we show that the L262P mutation in the nuclear-encoded F1 subunit γ that permits survival of 'slender' bloodstream forms lacking kDNA ('akinetoplastic' forms), via FO-independent generation of ΔΨm, also permits their differentiation into stumpy forms. However, these akinetoplastic stumpy cells lack a ΔΨm and have a reduced lifespan in vitro and in mice, which significantly alters the within-host dynamics of the parasite. We further show that generation of ΔΨm in stumpy parasites and their ability to use α-ketoglutarate to sustain viability depend on F1-ATPase activity. Surprisingly, however, loss of ΔΨm does not reduce stumpy life span. We conclude that the L262P γ subunit mutation does not enable FO-independent generation of ΔΨm in stumpy cells, most likely as a consequence of mitochondrial ATP production in these cells. In addition, kDNA-encoded genes other than FO subunit a are important for stumpy form viability.

Timing of host feeding drives rhythms in parasite replication.

Circadian rhythms enable organisms to synchronise the processes underpinning survival and reproduction to anticipate daily changes in the external environment. Recent work shows that daily (circadian) rhythms also enable parasites to maximise fitness in the context of ecological interactions with their hosts. Because parasite rhythms matter for their fitness, understanding how they are regulated could lead to innovative ways to reduce the severity and spread of diseases. Here, we examine how host circadian rhythms influence rhythms in the asexual replication of malaria parasites. Asexual replication is responsible for the severity of malaria and fuels transmission of the disease, yet, how parasite rhythms are driven remains a mystery. We perturbed feeding rhythms of hosts by 12 hours (i.e. diurnal feeding in nocturnal mice) to desynchronise the host's peripheral oscillators from the central, light-entrained oscillator in the brain and their rhythmic outputs. We demonstrate that the rhythms of rodent malaria parasites in day-fed hosts become inverted relative to the rhythms of parasites in night-fed hosts. Our results reveal that the host's peripheral rhythms (associated with the timing of feeding and metabolism), but not rhythms driven by the central, light-entrained circadian oscillator in the brain, determine the timing (phase) of parasite rhythms. Further investigation reveals that parasite rhythms correlate closely with blood glucose rhythms. In addition, we show that parasite rhythms resynchronise to the altered host feeding rhythms when food availability is shifted, which is not mediated through rhythms in the host immune system. Our observations suggest that parasites actively control their developmental rhythms. Finally, counter to expectation, the severity of disease symptoms expressed by hosts was not affected by desynchronisation of their central and peripheral rhythms. Our study at the intersection of disease ecology and chronobiology opens up a new arena for studying host-parasite-vector coevolution and has broad implications for applied bioscience.

Plasticity and genetic variation in traits underpinning asexual replication of the rodent malaria parasite, Plasmodium chabaudi.

BACKGROUND: The ability of malaria (Plasmodium) parasites to adjust investment into sexual transmission stages versus asexually replicating stages is well known, but plasticity in other traits underpinning the replication rate of asexual stages in the blood has received less attention. Such traits include burst size (the number of merozoites produced per schizont), the duration of the asexual cycle, and invasion preference for different ages of red blood cell (RBC). METHODS: Here, plasticity [environment (E) effects] and genetic variation [genotype (G) effects] in traits relating to asexual replication rate are examined for 4 genotypes of the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium chabaudi. An experiment tested whether asexual dynamics differ between parasites infecting control versus anaemic hosts, and whether variation in replication rate can be explained by differences in burst size, asexual cycle, and invasion rates. RESULTS: The within-host environment affected each trait to different extents but generally had similar impacts across genotypes. The dynamics of asexual densities exhibited a genotype by environment effect (G×E), in which one of the genotypes increased replication rate more than the others in anaemic hosts. Burst size and cycle duration varied between the genotypes (G), while burst size increased and cycle duration became longer in anaemic hosts (E). Variation in invasion rates of differently aged RBCs was not explained by environmental or genetic effects. Plasticity in burst size and genotype are the only traits making significant contributions to the increase in asexual densities observed in anaemic hosts, together explaining 46.4% of the variation in replication rate. CONCLUSIONS: That host anaemia induces several species of malaria parasites to alter conversion rate is well documented. Here, previously unknown plasticity in other traits underpinning asexual replication is revealed. These findings contribute to mounting evidence that malaria parasites deploy a suite of sophisticated strategies to maximize fitness by coping with, or exploiting the opportunities provided by, the variable within-host conditions experienced during infections. That genetic variation and genotype by environment interactions also shape these traits highlights their evolutionary potential. Asexual replication rate is a major determinant of virulence and so, understanding the evolution of virulence requires knowledge of the ecological (within-host environment) and genetic drivers of variation among parasites.

Protective immunity to Schistosoma haematobium infection is primarily an anti-fecundity response stimulated by the death of adult worms.

Protective immunity against human schistosome infection develops slowly, for reasons that are not yet fully understood. For many decades, researchers have attempted to infer properties of the immune response from epidemiological studies, with mathematical models frequently being used to bridge the gap between immunological theory and population-level data on schistosome infection and immune responses. Here, building upon earlier model findings, stochastic individual-based models were used to identify model structures consistent with observed field patterns of Schistosoma haematobium infection and antibody responses, including their distributions in cross-sectional surveys, and the observed treatment-induced antibody switch. We found that the observed patterns of infection and antibody were most consistent with models in which a long-lived protective antibody response is stimulated by the death of adult S. haematobium worms and reduces worm fecundity. These findings are discussed with regard to current understanding of human immune responses to schistosome infection.

Explaining observed infection and antibody age-profiles in populations with urogenital schistosomiasis.

Urogenital schistosomiasis is a tropical disease infecting more than 100 million people in sub-Saharan Africa. Individuals in endemic areas endure repeated infections with long-lived schistosome worms, and also encounter larval and egg stages of the life cycle. Protective immunity against infection develops slowly with age. Distinctive age-related patterns of infection and specific antibody responses are seen in endemic areas, including an infection 'peak shift' and a switch in the antibody types produced. Deterministic models describing changing levels of infection and antibody with age in homogeneously exposed populations were developed to identify the key mechanisms underlying the antibody switch, and to test two theories for the slow development of protective immunity: that (i) exposure to dying (long-lived) worms, or (ii) experience of a threshold level of antigen, is necessary to stimulate protective antibody. Different model structures were explored, including alternative stages of the life cycle as the main antigenic source and the principal target of protective antibody, different worm survival distributions, antigen thresholds and immune cross-regulation. Models were identified which could reproduce patterns of infection and antibody consistent with field data. Models with dying worms as the main source of protective antigen could reproduce all of these patterns, but so could some models with other continually-encountered life stages acting as the principal antigen source. An antigen threshold enhanced the ability of the model to replicate these patterns, but was not essential for it to do so. Models including either non-exponential worm survival or cross-regulation were more likely to be able to reproduce field patterns, but neither of these was absolutely required. The combination of life cycle stage stimulating, and targeted by, antibody was found to be critical in determining whether models could successfully reproduce patterns in the data, and a number of combinations were excluded as being inconsistent with field data.

Silent spread of H5N1 in vaccinated poultry.

International debate on the merits of vaccinating poultry against the H5N1 influenza A virus has raised concerns about the possibility of an increased risk of between-flock transmission before outbreaks are detected. Here we show that this 'silent spread' can occur because of incomplete protection at the flock level, even if a vaccine is effective in individual birds. The use of unvaccinated sentinels can mitigate, although not completely eliminate, the problem.

Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK provides an ideal opportunity to explore optimal control measures for an infectious disease. The presence of fine-scale spatio-temporal data for the 2001 epidemic has allowed the development of epidemiological models that are more accurate than those generally created for other epidemics and provide the opportunity to explore a variety of alternative control measures. Vaccination was not used during the 2001 epidemic; however, the recent DEFRA (Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs) contingency plan details how reactive vaccination would be considered in future. Here, using the data from the 2001 epidemic, we consider the optimal deployment of limited vaccination capacity in a complex heterogeneous environment. We use a model of FMD spread to investigate the optimal deployment of reactive ring vaccination of cattle constrained by logistical resources. The predicted optimal ring size is highly dependent upon logistical constraints but is more robust to epidemiological parameters. Other ways of targeting reactive vaccination can significantly reduce the epidemic size; in particular, ignoring the order in which infections are reported and vaccinating those farms closest to any previously reported case can substantially reduce the epidemic. This strategy has the advantage that it rapidly targets new foci of infection and that determining an optimal ring size is unnecessary.

Deep kinetoplast genome analyses result in a novel molecular assay for detecting Trypanosoma brucei gambiense-specific minicircles.

The World Health Organization targeted Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (Tbg) human African trypanosomiasis for elimination of transmission by 2030. Sensitive molecular markers that specifically detect Tbg type 1 (Tbg1) parasites will be important tools to assist in reaching this goal. We aim at improving molecular diagnosis of Tbg1 infections by targeting the abundant mitochondrial minicircles within the kinetoplast of these parasites. Using Next-Generation Sequencing of total cellular DNA extracts, we assembled and annotated the kinetoplast genome and investigated minicircle sequence diversity in 38 animal- and human-infective trypanosome strains. Computational analyses recognized a total of 241 Minicircle Sequence Classes as Tbg1-specific, of which three were shared by the 18 studied Tbg1 strains. We developed a minicircle-based assay that is applicable on animals and as specific as the TgsGP-based assay, the current golden standard for molecular detection of Tbg1. The median copy number of the targeted minicircle was equal to eight, suggesting our minicircle-based assay may be used for the sensitive detection of Tbg1 parasites. Annotation of the targeted minicircle sequence indicated that it encodes genes essential for the survival of the parasite and will thus likely be preserved in natural Tbg1 populations, the latter ensuring the reliability of our novel diagnostic assay.

Causes of variation in malaria infection dynamics: insights from theory and data.

Parasite strategies for exploiting host resources are key determinants of disease severity (i.e., virulence) and infectiousness (i.e., transmission between hosts). By iterating the development of theory and empirical tests, we investigated whether variation in parasite traits across two genetically distinct clones of the rodent malaria parasite, Plasmodium chabaudi, explains differences in within-host infection dynamics and virulence. First, we experimentally tested key predictions of our earlier modeling work. As predicted, the more virulent genotype produced more progeny parasites per infected cell (burst size), but in contrast to predictions, invasion rates of red blood cells (RBCs) did not differ between the genotypes studied. Second, we further developed theory by confronting our earlier model with these new data, testing a new set of models that incorporate more biological realism, and developing novel theoretical tools for identifying differences between parasite genotypes. Overall, we found robust evidence that differences in burst sizes contribute to variation in dynamics and that differential interactions between parasites and host immune responses also play a role. In contrast to previous work, our model predicts that RBC age structure is not important for explaining dynamics. Integrating theory and empirical tests is a potentially powerful way of progressing understanding of disease biology.

Quantitative analysis of immune response and erythropoiesis during rodent malarial infection.

Malarial infection is associated with complex immune and erythropoietic responses in the host. A quantitative understanding of these processes is essential to help inform malaria therapy and for the design of effective vaccines. In this study, we use a statistical model-fitting approach to investigate the immune and erythropoietic responses in Plasmodium chabaudi infections of mice. Three mouse phenotypes (wildtype, T-cell-deficient nude mice, and nude mice reconstituted with T-cells taken from wildtype mice) were infected with one of two parasite clones (AS or AJ). Under a Bayesian framework, we use an adaptive population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo method and fit a set of dynamical models to observed data on parasite and red blood cell (RBC) densities. Model fits are compared using Bayes' factors and parameter estimates obtained. We consider three independent immune mechanisms: clearance of parasitised RBCs (pRBC), clearance of unparasitised RBCs (uRBC), and clearance of parasites that burst from RBCs (merozoites). Our results suggest that the immune response of wildtype mice is associated with less destruction of uRBCs, compared to the immune response of nude mice. There is a greater degree of synchronisation between pRBC and uRBC clearance than between either mechanism and merozoite clearance. In all three mouse phenotypes, control of the peak of parasite density is associated with pRBC clearance. In wildtype mice and AS-infected nude mice, control of the peak is also associated with uRBC clearance. Our results suggest that uRBC clearance, rather than RBC infection, is the major determinant of RBC dynamics from approximately day 12 post-innoculation. During the first 2-3 weeks of blood-stage infection, immune-mediated clearance of pRBCs and uRBCs appears to have a much stronger effect than immune-mediated merozoite clearance. Upregulation of erythropoiesis is dependent on mouse phenotype and is greater in wildtype and reconstitited mice. Our study highlights the informative power of statistically rigorous model-fitting techniques in elucidating biological systems.

Modelling Marek's disease virus (MDV) infection: parameter estimates for mortality rate and infectiousness.

BACKGROUND: Marek's disease virus (MDV) is an economically important oncogenic herpesvirus of poultry. Since the 1960s, increasingly virulent strains have caused continued poultry industry production losses worldwide. To understand the mechanisms of this virulence evolution and to evaluate the epidemiological consequences of putative control strategies, it is imperative to understand how virulence is defined and how this correlates with host mortality and infectiousness during MDV infection. We present a mathematical approach to quantify key epidemiological parameters. Host lifespan, virus latent periods and host viral shedding rates were estimated for unvaccinated and vaccinated birds, infected with one of three MDV strains. The strains had previously been pathotyped to assign virulence scores according to pathogenicity of strains in hosts. RESULTS: Our analyses show that strains of higher virulence have a higher viral shedding rate, and more rapidly kill hosts. Vaccination enhances host life expectancy but does not significantly reduce the shedding rate of the virus. While the primary latent period of the virus does not vary with challenge strain nor vaccine treatment of host, the time until the maximum viral shedding rate is increased with vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach provides the tools necessary for a formal analysis of the evolution of virulence in MDV, and potentially simpler and cheaper approaches to comparing the virulence of MDV strains.

Quantitative analysis of mechanisms that govern red blood cell age structure and dynamics during anaemia.

Mathematical modelling has proven an important tool in elucidating and quantifying mechanisms that govern the age structure and population dynamics of red blood cells (RBCs). Here we synthesise ideas from previous experimental data and the mathematical modelling literature with new data in order to test hypotheses and generate new predictions about these mechanisms. The result is a set of competing hypotheses about three intrinsic mechanisms: the feedback from circulating RBC concentration to production rate of immature RBCs (reticulocytes) in bone marrow, the release of reticulocytes from bone marrow into the circulation, and their subsequent ageing and clearance. In addition we examine two mechanisms specific to our experimental system: the effect of phenylhydrazine (PHZ) and blood sampling on RBC dynamics. We performed a set of experiments to quantify the dynamics of reticulocyte proportion, RBC concentration, and erythropoietin concentration in PHZ-induced anaemic mice. By quantifying experimental error we are able to fit and assess each hypothesis against our data and recover parameter estimates using Markov chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian inference. We find that, under normal conditions, about 3% of reticulocytes are released early from bone marrow and upon maturation all cells are released immediately. In the circulation, RBCs undergo random clearance but have a maximum lifespan of about 50 days. Under anaemic conditions reticulocyte production rate is linearly correlated with the difference between normal and anaemic RBC concentrations, and their release rate is exponentially correlated with the same. PHZ appears to age rather than kill RBCs, and younger RBCs are affected more than older RBCs. Blood sampling caused short aperiodic spikes in the proportion of reticulocytes which appear to have a different developmental pathway than normal reticulocytes. We also provide evidence of large diurnal oscillations in serum erythropoietin levels during anaemia.

Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza.

BACKGROUND: Key to the control of pandemic influenza are surveillance systems that raise alarms rapidly and sensitively. In addition, they must minimise false alarms during a normal influenza season. We develop a method that uses historical syndromic influenza data from the existing surveillance system 'SERVIS' (Scottish Enhanced Respiratory Virus Infection Surveillance) for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Scotland. METHODS: We develop an algorithm based on the weekly case ratio (WCR) of reported ILI cases to generate an alarm for pandemic influenza. From the seasonal influenza data from 13 Scottish health boards, we estimate the joint probability distribution of the country-level WCR and the number of health boards showing synchronous increases in reported influenza cases over the previous week. Pandemic cases are sampled with various case reporting rates from simulated pandemic influenza infections and overlaid with seasonal SERVIS data from 2001 to 2007. Using this combined time series we test our method for speed of detection, sensitivity and specificity. Also, the 2008-09 SERVIS ILI cases are used for testing detection performances of the three methods with a real pandemic data. RESULTS: We compare our method, based on our simulation study, to the moving-average Cumulative Sums (Mov-Avg Cusum) and ILI rate threshold methods and find it to be more sensitive and rapid. For 1% case reporting and detection specificity of 95%, our method is 100% sensitive and has median detection time (MDT) of 4 weeks while the Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods are, respectively, 97% and 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. At 99% specificity, our method remains 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. Although the threshold method maintains its sensitivity of 100% with MDT of 5 weeks, sensitivity of Mov-Avg Cusum declines to 92% with increased MDT of 6 weeks. For a two-fold decrease in the case reporting rate (0.5%) and 99% specificity, the WCR and threshold methods, respectively, have MDT of 5 and 6 weeks with both having sensitivity close to 100% while the Mov-Avg Cusum method can only manage sensitivity of 77% with MDT of 6 weeks. However, the WCR and Mov-Avg Cusum methods outperform the ILI threshold method by 1 week in retrospective detection of the 2009 pandemic in Scotland. CONCLUSIONS: While computationally and statistically simple to implement, the WCR algorithm is capable of raising alarms, rapidly and sensitively, for influenza pandemics against a background of seasonal influenza. Although the algorithm was developed using the SERVIS data, it has the capacity to be used at other geographic scales and for different disease systems where buying some early extra time is critical.

INFERENCE FOR INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL MODELS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN LARGE POPULATIONS.

Individual Level Models (ILMs), a new class of models, are being applied to infectious epidemic data to aid in the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. These models are highly flexible and intuitive, and can be parameterised under a Bayesian framework via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Unfortunately, this parameterisation can be difficult to implement due to intense computational requirements when calculating the full posterior for large, or even moderately large, susceptible populations, or when missing data are present. Here we detail a methodology that can be used to estimate parameters for such large, and/or incomplete, data sets. This is done in the context of a study of the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic.

Epidemiology and control of maedi-visna virus: Curing the flock.

Maedi-visna (MV) is a complex lentiviral disease syndrome characterised by long immunological and clinical latencies and chronic progressive inflammatory pathology. Incurable at the individual level, it is widespread in most sheep-keeping countries, and is a cause of lost production and poor animal welfare. Culling seropositive animals is the main means of control, but it might be possible to manage virus transmission effectively if its epidemiology was better quantified. We derive a mathematical epidemiological model of the temporal distributions of seroconversion probabilities and estimate susceptibility, transmission rate and latencies in three serological datasets. We demonstrate the existence of epidemiological latency, which has not explicitly been recognised in the SRLV literaure. This time delay between infection and infectiousness apparently exceeds the delay between infection and seroconversion. Poor body condition was associated with more rapid seroconversion, but not with a higher probability of infection. We estimate transmission rates amongst housed sheep to be at about 1,000 times faster than when sheep were at grass, when transmission was negligible. Maternal transmission has only a small role in transmission, because lambs from infected ewes have a low probability of being infected directly by them, and only a small proportion of lambs need be retained to maintain flock size. Our results show that MV is overwhelmingly a disease of housing, where sheep are kept in close proximity. Prevalence of MV is likely to double each year from an initial low incidence in housed flocks penned in typically-sized groups of sheep (c. 50) for even a few days per year. Ewes kept entirely at grass are unlikely to experience transmission frequently enough for MV to persist, and pre-existing infection should die out as older ewes are replaced, thereby essentially curing the flock.

A receptor for the complement regulator factor H increases transmission of trypanosomes to tsetse flies.

Persistent pathogens have evolved to avoid elimination by the mammalian immune system including mechanisms to evade complement. Infections with African trypanosomes can persist for years and cause human and animal disease throughout sub-Saharan Africa. It is not known how trypanosomes limit the action of the alternative complement pathway. Here we identify an African trypanosome receptor for mammalian factor H, a negative regulator of the alternative pathway. Structural studies show how the receptor binds ligand, leaving inhibitory domains of factor H free to inactivate complement C3b deposited on the trypanosome surface. Receptor expression is highest in developmental stages transmitted to the tsetse fly vector and those exposed to blood meals in the tsetse gut. Receptor gene deletion reduced tsetse infection, identifying this receptor as a virulence factor for transmission. This demonstrates how a pathogen evolved a molecular mechanism to increase transmission to an insect vector by exploitation of a mammalian complement regulator.