Outbreaks of tularemia in a boreal forest region depends on mosquito prevalence.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate the potential association of mosquito prevalence in a boreal forest area with transmission of the bacterial disease tularemia to humans, and model the annual variation of disease using local weather data. METHODS: A prediction model for mosquito abundance was built using weather and mosquito catch data. Then a negative binomial regression model based on the predicted mosquito abundance and local weather data was built to predict annual numbers of humans contracting tularemia in Dalarna County, Sweden. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy humans were diagnosed with tularemia between 1981 and 2007, 94% of them during 7 summer outbreaks. Disease transmission was concentrated along rivers in the area. The predicted mosquito abundance was correlated (0.41, P < .05) with the annual number of human cases. The predicted mosquito peaks consistently preceded the median onset time of human tularemia (temporal correlation, 0.76; P < .05). Our final predictive model included 5 environmental variables and identified 6 of the 7 outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: This work suggests that a high prevalence of mosquitoes in late summer is a prerequisite for outbreaks of tularemia in a tularemia-endemic boreal forest area of Sweden and that environmental variables can be used as risk indicators.

Transstadial transmission of Francisella tularensis holarctica in mosquitoes, Sweden.

In Sweden, human cases of tularemia caused by Francisella tularensis holarctica are assumed to be transmitted by mosquitoes, but how mosquito vectors acquire and transmit the bacterium is not clear. To determine how transmission of this bacterium occurs, mosquito larvae were collected in an area where tularemia is endemic, brought to the laboratory, and reared to adults in their original pond water. Screening of adult mosquitoes by real-time PCR demonstrated F. tularensis lpnA sequences in 14 of the 48 mosquito pools tested; lpnA sequences were demonstrated in 6 of 9 identified mosquito species. Further analysis confirmed the presence of F. tularensis holarctica-specific 30-bp deletion region sequences (FtM19inDel) in water from breeding containers and in 3 mosquito species (Aedes sticticus, Ae. vexans, and Ae. punctor) known to take blood from humans. Our results suggest that the mosquitoes that transmit F. tularensis holarctica during tularemia outbreaks acquire the bacterium already as larvae.

Sindbis virus polyarthritis outbreak signalled by virus prevalence in the mosquito vectors.

Polyarthritis and rash caused by Sindbis virus (SINV), was first recognised in northern Europe about 50 years ago and is known as Ockelbo disease in Sweden and Pogosta disease in Finland. This mosquito-borne virus occurs mainly in tropical and sub-tropical countries, and in northern Europe it is suggested to cause regularly reoccurring outbreaks. Here a seven-year cycle of SINV outbreaks has been referred to in scientific papers, although the hypothesis is based solely on reported human cases. In the search for a more objective outbreak signal, we evaluated mosquito abundance and SINV prevalence in vector mosquitoes from an endemic area in central Sweden. Vector mosquitoes collected in the River Dalälven floodplains during the years before, during, and after the hypothesised 2002 outbreak year were assayed for virus on cell culture. Obtained isolates were partially sequenced, and the nucleotide sequences analysed using Bayesian maximum clade credibility and median joining network analysis. Only one SINV strain was recovered in 2001, and 4 strains in 2003, while 15 strains were recovered in 2002 with significantly increased infection rates in both the enzootic and the bridge-vectors. In 2002, the Maximum Likelihood Estimated infection rates were 10.0/1000 in the enzootic vectors Culex torrentium/pipiens, and 0.62/1000 in the bridge-vector Aedes cinereus, compared to 4.9/1000 and 0.0/1000 in 2001 and 0.0/1000 and 0.32/1000 in 2003 Sequence analysis showed that all isolates belonged to the SINV genotype I (SINV-I). The genetic analysis revealed local maintenance of four SINV-I clades in the River Dalälven floodplains over the years. Our findings suggest that increased SINV-I prevalence in vector mosquitoes constitutes the most valuable outbreak marker for further scrutinising the hypothesized seven-year cycle of SINV-I outbreaks and the mechanisms behind.

Pest occurrence of Aedes rossicus close to the Arctic Circle in northern Sweden.

Major nuisance species are found among the floodwater mosquitoes and snow-pool mosquitoes, with the former being the main reason for mosquito control in most areas. Nuisance species vary with the area, and previous reports from northern areas conclude that the nuisance is most often caused by snow-pool mosquitoes. We investigated the mosquito fauna and abundances of host-seeking females using CDC traps baited with carbon dioxide, in Övertorneå city near the Arctic Circle in northern Sweden, after earlier complaints about massive mosquito nuisance. The abundance of host-seeking female mosquitoes was high in 2014, with a maximum of ∼15,400 individuals per CDC trap night, of which 89% was the floodwater mosquito Aedes rossicus. Surprisingly, the main nuisance species was a floodwater mosquito, occurring at the northernmost location it has ever been recorded in Sweden. Our report is probably the first documentation of such large numbers of Aedes rossicus in any locality and probably the first documentation of a severe floodwater mosquito nuisance near the Arctic Circle. Given the historical data on river discharge in the area, the nuisance is recurrent. We conclude that in northern localities, as well as in more southern localities, production of floodwater mosquitoes is a natural component of the floodplain fauna of rivers with a fluctuating water flow regime. Also, the floodwater mosquitoes Aedes sticticus and Aedes vexans were found north of their formerly known distribution in Sweden.

The present distribution and predicted geographic expansion of the floodwater mosquito Aedes sticticus in Sweden.

The mass emergence of floodwater mosquitoes, in particular Aedes sticticus and Aedes vexans, causes substantial nuisance and reduces life quality for inhabitants of infested areas and can have a negative impact on the socio-economic conditions of a region. We compared the previous, present, and predicted geographic distribution of Ae. sticticus in Sweden. Previous records from the literature until 1990 list the species in three out of 21 Swedish counties. Beginning in 1998, studies show that the present distribution of the species covers 11 counties, with highest abundances in an east-west belt in Central Sweden. Using climate data from the present and predicted climate scenarios, the expected distribution of Ae. sticticus in 2020, 2050, and 2080 could be modelled using GIS. As variables, mean temperatures and cumulative precipitation between May and August and degree slope were chosen. The predicted geographic distribution of Ae. sticticus will continue to increase and include 20 out of 21 Swedish counties. The expected temperature rise will increase the suitable area towards the northern part of Sweden by 2050. Some non-suitable areas can be found along the south-east coast due to insufficient amount of precipitation in 2050 and 2080. Modelling the expected distribution of a species using predicted climate change scenarios provides a valuable tool for risk assessments and early-warning systems that is easily applied to different species and scenarios.