Methods for conducting trends analysis: roadmap for comparing outcomes from three national HIV Population-based household surveys in Kenya (2007, 2012, and 2018).

BACKGROUND: For assessing the HIV epidemic in Kenya, a series of independent HIV indicator household-based surveys of similar design can be used to investigate the trends in key indicators relevant to HIV prevention and control and to describe geographic and sociodemographic disparities, assess the impact of interventions, and develop strategies. We developed methods and tools to facilitate a robust analysis of trends across three national household-based surveys conducted in Kenya in 2007, 2012, and 2018. METHODS: We used data from the 2007 and 2012 Kenya AIDS Indicator surveys (KAIS 2007 and KAIS 2012) and the 2018 Kenya Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (KENPHIA 2018). To assess the design and other variables of interest from each study, variables were recoded to ensure that they had equivalent meanings across the three surveys. After assessing weighting procedures for comparability, we used the KAIS 2012 nonresponse weighting procedure to revise normalized KENPHIA weights. Analyses were restricted to geographic areas covered by all three surveys. The revised analysis files were then merged into a single file for pooled analysis. We assessed distributions of age, sex, household wealth, and urban/rural status to identify unexpected changes between surveys. To demonstrate how a trend analysis can be carried out, we used continuous, binary, and time-to-event variables as examples. Specifically, temporal trends in age at first sex and having received an HIV test in the last 12 months were used to demonstrate the proposed analytical approach. These were assessed with respondent-specific variables (age, sex, level of education, and marital status) and household variables (place of residence and wealth index). All analyses were conducted in SAS 9.4, but analysis files were created in Stata and R format to support additional analyses. RESULTS: This study demonstrates trends in selected indicators to illustrate the approach that can be used in similar settings. The incidence of early sexual debut decreased from 11.63 (95% CI: 10.95-12.34) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2007 to 10.45 (95% CI: 9.75-11.2) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2012 and to 9.58 (95% CI: 9.08-10.1) per 1,000 person-years at risk in 2018. HIV-testing rates increased from 12.6% (95% CI: 11.6%-13.6%) in 2007 to 56.1% (95% CI: 54.6%-57.6%) in 2012 but decreased slightly to 55.6% [95% CI: 54.6%-56.6%) in 2018. The decrease in incidence of early sexual debut could be convincingly demonstrated between 2007 and 2012 but not between 2012 and 2018. Similarly, there was virtually no difference between HIV Testing rates in 2012 and 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach can be used to support trend comparisons for variables in HIV surveys in low-income settings. Independent national household surveys can be assessed for comparability, adjusted as appropriate, and used to estimate trends in key indicators. Analyzing trends over time can not only provide insights into Kenya's progress toward HIV epidemic control but also identify gaps.

Onsite healthcare worker acceptability and performance of the point-of-care Pima CD4 assay in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers' acceptance of and ability to perform point-of-care testing is important for reliable and accurate results. The Alere Pima™ CD4 assay (Pima CD4) is the CD4 point-of-care test for HIV management in Tanzania. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate healthcare workers' acceptance and performance of Pima CD4 testing. METHODS: The study was implemented in five high volume sites in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in 2011. Trained healthcare workers performed Pima testing using three whole-blood specimens collected from each patient: venous blood, fingerstick blood directly applied to a Pima cartridge (capillary-direct), and fingerstick blood collected in a microtube (capillary-microtube). Using a semi-structured interview guide, we interviewed 11 healthcare workers about specimen collection methods and Pima CD4 acceptability. Quantitative responses were analysed using descriptive statistics. Open-ended responses were summarised by thematic areas. Pima CD4 results were analysed to determine variation between cadres. RESULTS: Healthcare workers found Pima CD4 user-friendly and recommended its use in low volume, peripheral facilities. Both venous and capillary-direct blood were considered easy to collect, with venous preferred. Advantages noted with venous and capillary-microtube methods were the ability to retest, perform multiple tests, or delay testing. Pima CD4 results were trusted by the healthcare workers and were in agreement with laboratory Pima testing. CONCLUSION: In this point-of-care testing setting, the Pima CD4 assay was accepted by healthcare workers. Both venous and fingerstick capillary blood specimens can be used with Pima CD4, but fingerstick methods may require more intensive training on technique to minimise variation in results and increase acceptability.

Evaluation of Specimen Types for Pima CD4 Point-of-Care Testing: Advantages of Fingerstick Blood Collection into an EDTA Microtube.

INTRODUCTION: Effective point-of-care testing (POCT) is reliant on optimal specimen collection, quality assured testing, and expedited return of results. Many of the POCT are designed to be used with fingerstick capillary blood to simplify the blood collection burden. However, fingerstick blood collection has inherent errors in sampling. An evaluation of the use of capillary and venous blood with CD4 POCT was conducted. METHODS: Three different specimen collection methods were evaluated for compatibility using the Alere Pima CD4 assay at 5 HIV/AIDS healthcare sites in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. At each site, whole blood specimens were collected from enrolled patients by venipuncture and fingerstick. Pima CD4 testing was performed at site of collection on venipuncture specimens (Venous) and fingerstick blood directly applied to a Pima CD4 cartridge (Capillary-Direct) and collected into an EDTA microtube (Capillary-Microtube). Venous blood was also tested at the laboratory by the reference CD4 method and Pima for comparison analysis. RESULTS: All three specimen collection methods were successfully collected by healthcare workers for use with the Pima CD4 assay. When compared to the reference CD4 method, Pima CD4 testing with the Capillary-Microtube method performed similarly to Venous, while Pima CD4 counts with the Capillary-Direct method were slightly more biased (-20 cells/µL) and variable (-229 to +189 cells/µL limit of agreement). Even though all three collection methods had similar invalid Pima testing rates (10.5%, 9.8%, and 8.3% for Capillary-Direct, Capillary-Microtube, and Venous respectively), the ability to perform repeat testing with Capillary-Microtube and Venous specimens increased the likelihood of acquiring a valid CD4 result with the Pima assay. CONCLUSIONS: Capillary blood, either directly applied to Pima CD4 cartridges or collected in an EDTA microtube, and venous blood are suitable specimens for Pima CD4 testing. The advantages of capillary blood collection in an EDTA microtube are that it uses fingerstick collection which mimics venous blood and allows extra testing without additional blood collection.

HIV incidence in western Kenya during scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision: a population-based cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: In Kenya, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people with HIV infection has increased from 7% in 2006, to 57% in 2016; and, in western Kenya, coverage of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) increased from 45% in 2008, to 72% in 2014. We investigated trends in HIV prevalence and incidence in a high burden area in western Kenya in 2011-16. METHODS: In 2011, 2012, and 2016, population-based surveys were done via a health and demographic surveillance system and home-based counselling and testing in Gem, Siaya County, Kenya, including 28 688, 17 021, and 16 772 individuals aged 15-64 years. Data on demographic variables, self-reported HIV status, and risk factors were collected. Rapid HIV testing was offered to survey participants. Participants were tracked between surveys by use of health and demographic surveillance system identification numbers. HIV prevalence was calculated as a proportion, and HIV incidence was expressed as number of new infections per 1000 person-years of follow-up. FINDINGS: HIV prevalence was stable in participants aged 15-64 years: 15% (4300/28 532) in 2011, 12% (2051/16 875) in 2012, and 15% (2312/15 626) in 2016. Crude prevalences in participants aged 15-34 years were 11% (1893/17 197) in 2011, 10% (1015/10 118) in 2012, and 9% (848/9125) in 2016; adjusted for age and sex these prevalences were 11%, 9%, and 8%. 12 606 (41%) of the 30 520 non-HIV-infected individuals enrolled were seen again in at least one more survey round, and were included in the analysis of HIV incidence. HIV incidence was 11·1 (95% CI 9·1-13·1) per 1000 person-years from 2011 to 2012, and 5·7 (4·6-6·9) per 1000 person-years from 2012 to 2016. INTERPRETATION: With increasing coverage of ART and VMMC, HIV incidence declined substantially in Siaya County between 2011 and 2016. VMMC, but not ART, was suggested to have a direct protective effect, presumably because ART tended to be given to individuals with advanced HIV infection. HIV incidence is still high and not close to the elimination target of one per 1000 person-years. The effect of further scale-up of ART and VMMC needs to be monitored. FUNDING: Data were collected under Cooperative Agreements with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, with funding from the President's Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief.

Field Evaluation of Dried Blood Spots for HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring in Adults and Children Receiving Antiretroviral Treatment in Kenya: Implications for Scale-up in Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends viral load (VL) as the preferred method for diagnosing antiretroviral therapy failure; however, operational challenges have hampered the implementation of VL monitoring in most resource-limited settings. This study evaluated the accuracy of dried blood spot (DBS) VL testing under field conditions as a practical alternative to plasma in determining virologic failure (VF). METHODS: From May to December 2013, paired plasma and DBS specimens were collected from 416 adults and 377 children on antiretroviral therapy for ≥6 months at 12 clinics in Kenya. DBSs were prepared from venous blood (V-DBS) using disposable transfer pipettes and from finger-prick capillary blood using microcapillary tubes (M-DBS) and directly spotting (D-DBS). All samples were tested on the Abbott m2000 platform; V-DBS was also tested on the Roche COBAS Ampliprep/COBAS TaqMan (CAP/CTM) version 2.0 platform. VF results were compared at 3 DBS thresholds (≥1000, ≥3000, and ≥5000 copies/mL) and a constant plasma threshold of ≥1000 copies/mL. RESULTS: On the Abbott platform, at ≥1000-copies/mL threshold, sensitivities, specificities, and kappa values for VF determination were ≥88.1%, ≥93.1%, and ≥0.82%, respectively, for all DBS methods, and it had the lowest percentage of downward misclassification compared with higher thresholds. V-DBS performance on CAP/CTM had significantly poorer specificity at all thresholds (1000%-33.0%, 3000%-60.9%, and 5000%-77.0%). No significant differences were found between adults and children. CONCLUSIONS: VL results from V-DBS, M-DBS, and D-DBS were comparable with those from plasma for determining VF using the Abbott platform but not with CAP/CTM. A 1000-copies/mL threshold was optimal and should be considered for VF determination using DBS in adults and children.

Orphans and vulnerable children in Kenya: results from a nationally representative population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: In Kenya, it is estimated that there are approximately 3.6 million children aged <18 years who have been orphaned or who are vulnerable. We examined the data from the second Kenya AIDS Indicator Survey (KAIS 2012) to determine the number and profile of orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) in Kenya who were aged <18 years. METHODS: KAIS 2012 was a nationally representative, population-based household survey. We analyzed the data for all the children from birth to age 17 years who resided in an eligible household so as to determine whether their parents were alive or had been very ill to define their OVC status. RESULTS: We estimated that there were 2.6 million OVC in Kenya in 2012, of whom 1.8 million were orphans and 750,000 were vulnerable. Among orphans, 15% were double orphans. Over one-third of all the OVC were aged between 10 and 14 years. Households with ≥1 OVC (12% of all households) were usually in the lowest 2 wealth quintiles, and 22% of OVC households had experienced moderate or severe hunger. Receipt of OVC support services was low for medical (3.7%), psychological (4.1%), social (1.3%), and material support (6.2%); educational support was slightly more common (11.5%). Orphanhood among children aged <15 years increased from 1993 to 2003 (P < 0.01) but declined from 2003 to 2012 (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The 2.6 million OVC constitute a significant proportion of Kenya's population aged <18 years. Special attention should be paid to OVC to prevent further vulnerability and ensure their well-being and development as they transition into adulthood.