The predictors of the presence of varices in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.

UNLABELLED: The predictors for developing varices in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) have not been well studied prospectively. We sought to define the predictors for the presence of varices at baseline and for newly developing varices in patients with PSC. We used prospectively collected data from a multicenter randomized trial of high dose ursodeoxycholic acid for PSC. All 150 patients enrolled were reviewed for predictors of varices and we excluded 26 patients who had esophageal varices at baseline so that predictors of newly developing varices could be determined. Clinical examination, blood tests, and upper endoscopy were done before randomization, at 2 years and after 5 years. Liver biopsy was performed at entry and at 5 years. The median age (interquartile range) of patients was 45.9 years (35.8, 54.9). In a multivariable logistic regression, a higher Mayo risk score (> or =0.87) or a higher aspartate/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio (> or =1.12) were significantly associated with the presence of varices at initial endoscopy (odds ratio = 1.9 and 3.9). By the end of the study, 25 patients had new varices (20.2%). In a Cox model, after adjustment for baseline variables lower platelet count and higher total bilirubin at 2 years were significantly associated with the presence of new varices. The platelet count of 205 (x 10(9)/L) and the total bilirubin level of 1.7 mg/dL were the best cutoff values for the detection of new varices. CONCLUSION: A higher Mayo risk score and higher AST/ALT ratio were significantly associated with the presence of varices at initial endoscopy. Lower platelet count and higher total bilirubin at 2 years were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing new varices in patients with PSC.

High-dose ursodeoxycholic acid for the treatment of primary sclerosing cholangitis.

UNLABELLED: Previous controlled trials are inconclusive regarding the efficacy of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) for treating primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). One hundred fifty adult patients with PSC were enrolled in a long-term, randomized, double-blind controlled trial of high-dose UDCA (28-30 mg/kg/day) versus placebo. Liver biopsy and cholangiography were performed before randomization and after 5 years. The primary outcome measures were development of cirrhosis, varices, cholangiocarcinoma, liver transplantation, or death. The study was terminated after 6 years due to futility. At enrollment, the UDCA (n = 76) and placebo (n = 74) groups were similar with respect to sex, age, duration of disease, serum aspartate aminotransferase and alkaline phosphatase levels, liver histology, and Mayo risk score. During therapy, aspartate aminotransferase and alkaline phosphatase levels decreased more in the UDCA group than the placebo group (P < 0.01), but improvements in liver tests were not associated with decreased endpoints. By the end of the study, 30 patients in the UDCA group (39%) versus 19 patients in the placebo group (26%) had reached one of the pre-established clinical endpoints. After adjustment for baseline stratification characteristics, the risk of a primary endpoint was 2.3 times greater for patients on UDCA than for those on placebo (P < 0.01) and 2.1 times greater for death, transplantation, or minimal listing criteria (P = 0.038). Serious adverse events were more common in the UDCA group than the placebo group (63% versus 37% [P < 0.01]). CONCLUSION: Long-term, high-dose UDCA therapy is associated with improvement in serum liver tests in PSC but does not improve survival and was associated with higher rates of serious adverse events.