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1.
Eur J Public Health ; 33(5): 930-936, 2023 Oct 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37470231

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Intra-annual excess mortality is the most reliable measure of losses of lives due to short-term risk factors. The objectives of our study are (i) to estimate excess mortality across German states in the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic years 2020 and 2021 and (ii) to identify possible regional-level determinants of spatial inequality in pandemic-related excess mortality. METHODS: We use weekly mortality data series for the calculation of weekly death rates, standardized by age for each federal state of Germany. We estimate the expected level of mortality as state-specific mortality trends and excess mortality in 2020 and 2021. We explore ecological statistical relationships between excess mortality, COVID-19 morbidity, and selected regional socioeconomic indicators using fixed-effects regression models. RESULTS: Our study shows that during the first pandemic year, there was South-to-North gradient in excess mortality in Germany, with excess mortality being higher in the South. Over the course of the second pandemic year 2021, this gradient changed to become an East-to-West gradient, with excess mortality being higher in the East. The results of the study show stronger effects of COVID-19 morbidity on excess mortality in East Germany. State-level indicators reflecting economic activity, employment, and capacity of intensive care units show significant correlations with excess mortality across the states. CONCLUSIONS: The results show pronounced state-level differences in the magnitude of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Economic activity, employment and capacity of intensive care units were the most important state-level characteristics associated with the observed spatial variations in excess mortality.

2.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 28(2): 463-465, 2022 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35076366

RESUMO

Population-based data on coronavirus disease in Russia and on the immunogenicity of the Sputnik V vaccine are sparse. In a survey of 1,080 residents of Arkhangelsk 40-75 years of age, 65% were seropositive for IgG. Fifteen percent of participants had been vaccinated; of those, 97% were seropositive.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , Anticorpos Antivirais , Humanos , Federação Russa/epidemiologia , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos
3.
Int J Equity Health ; 21(1): 51, 2022 04 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35428237

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular (CVD) health outcomes are well documented. While Russia has one of the highest levels of CVD mortality in the world, the literature on contemporary socio-economic inequalities in biomarker CVD risk factors is sparse. This paper aims to assess the extent and the direction of SEP inequalities in established physiological CVD risk biomarkers, and to explore the role of lifestyle factors in explaining SEP inequalities in physiological CVD risk biomarkers. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from a general population-based survey of Russians aged 35-69 years living in two cities (n = 4540, Know Your Heart study 2015-18). Logistic models were used to assess the associations between raised physiological risk biomarkers levels (blood pressure levels, cholesterol levels, triglycerides, HbA1C, and C-reactive protein) and socioeconomic position (SEP) (education and household financial constraints) adjusting for age, obesity, smoking, alcohol and health-care seeking behavior. RESULTS: High education was negatively associated with a raised risk of blood pressure (systolic and diastolic) and C-reactive protein for both men and women. High education was positively associated with total cholesterol, with higher HDL levels among women, and with low triglycerides and HbA1c levels among men. For the remaining risk biomarkers, we found little statistical support for SEP inequalities. Adjustment for lifestyle factors, and particularly BMI and waist-hip ratio, led to a reduction in the observed SEP inequalities in raised biomarkers risk levels, especially among women. High financial constraints were weakly associated with high risk biomarkers levels, except for strong evidence for an association with C-reactive protein (men). CONCLUSIONS: Notable differences in risk biomarkers inequalities were observed according to the SEP measure employed. Clear educational inequalities in raised physiological risk biomarkers levels, particularly in blood pressure and C-reactive protein were seen in Russia and are partly explained by lifestyle factors, particularly obesity among women. These findings provide evidence-based information on the need for tackling health inequalities in the Russian population, which may help to further contribute to CVD mortality decline.


Assuntos
Proteína C-Reativa , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Biomarcadores , Proteína C-Reativa/análise , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Colesterol , Estudos Transversais , Escolaridade , Feminino , Hemoglobinas Glicadas , Humanos , Estilo de Vida , Masculino , Obesidade , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Triglicerídeos
4.
Eur J Public Health ; 32(1): 21-23, 2022 02 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34009332

RESUMO

This article addresses two unresolved methodological issues related to prior research on Russia that was based on census-unlinked data and did not account for the substantial increase in the share of death records with missing information on education. The study uses a proportional mortality analysis method relying on a case-control framework, together with a plausible imputation-based solution for the redistribution of the unknown education on death records. The new results suggest that high levels of inequality persist, but they do not support recent findings indicating that the educational gap in life expectancy has substantially widened.


Assuntos
Expectativa de Vida , Mortalidade , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Escolaridade , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Humanos , Federação Russa/epidemiologia
5.
BMC Cardiovasc Disord ; 21(1): 80, 2021 02 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33557760

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In Russia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is high and the mortality gap between men and women is large. Conventional risk factors cannot explain these phenomena. Ventricular arrhythmia (VA) is an important contributor to the death toll in community-based populations. The study examines the prevalence and the mortality impacts of VA in men and women and the role of VA in the male mortality excess at older ages. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data from the Stress, Aging, and Health in Russia (SAHR) study that was fielded in 2007-9 in Moscow (1800 individuals, mean age 68.8 years), with mean mortality follow-up of 7.4 years (416 deaths, 248 CVD deaths). Indicators reflecting the frequency and the complexity of VA were derived from 24-h ambulatory ECG recordings. Other covariates were: socio-demographic characteristics, conventional risk factors, markers of inflammation, reported myocardial infarction, and stroke. The impacts of VA and other variables on CVD and all-cause mortality among men and women were estimated with the proportional hazard models. We assessed the contributions of VAs to the male-female mortality gap using hazard models that do and do not include groups of the predictors. Logistic models were used to assess the associations between VA and other biomarkers. RESULTS: VAs were about twice as prevalent among men as among women. In both sexes, they were significantly associated with CVD and all-cause mortality independently of conventional risk factors. The highest hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD death were found for the runs of ventricular premature complexes (VPCs) HR = 2.45, 95% CI 1.63-3.68 for men and 2.75, 95% CI 1.18-6.40 for women. The mortality impacts of the polymorphic VPCs were significant among men only (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.08-2.07). VA indicators can potentially explain 12.3% and 9.1% of the male-female gaps in mortality from CVD and all causes, respectively. VAs were associated with ECG-registered ischemic problems and reported MI, particularly among men. CONCLUSIONS: VA indicators predicted mortality in older Muscovites independently of other risk factors, and have the potential to explain a non-trivial share of the excess male mortality. The latter may be related to more severe coronary problems in men compared to women.


Assuntos
Complexos Ventriculares Prematuros/epidemiologia , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Eletrocardiografia Ambulatorial , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Moscou/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Prognóstico , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores Sexuais , Fatores de Tempo , Complexos Ventriculares Prematuros/diagnóstico , Complexos Ventriculares Prematuros/mortalidade
6.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 2226, 2021 12 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34876091

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is recognized as an important contributor to high cardiovascular mortality in Russia. A comprehensive analysis of data from Russian studies that measured blood pressure in population-based samples has not been previously undertaken. This study aims to identify trends and patterns in mean blood pressure and the prevalence of hypertension in Russia over the most recent 40 years. METHODS: We obtained anonymized individual records of blood pressure measurements from 14 surveys conducted in Russia in 1975-2017 relating to a total of 137,687 individuals. For comparative purposes we obtained equivalent data from 4 surveys in the USA and England for 23,864 individuals. A meta-regression on aggregated data adjusted for education was undertaken to estimate time trends in mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure, the prevalence of elevated blood pressure (> 140/90 mmHg), and hypertension (defined as elevated blood pressure and/or the use of blood pressure-lowering) medication. A meta-analysis of pooled individual-level data was used to assess male-female differences in blood pressure and hypertension. RESULTS: During the period 1975-2017 mean blood pressure, the prevalence of elevated blood pressure and hypertension remained stable among Russian men. Among Russian women, mean systolic blood pressure decreased at an annual rate of 0.25 mmHg (p < 0.1) at age 35-54 years and by 0.8 mmHg (p < 0.01) at ages 55 and over. The prevalence of elevated blood pressure also decreased by 0.8% per year (p < 0.01), but the prevalence of hypertension remained stable. Mean blood pressure and prevalence of hypertension were higher in Russia compared to the USA and England at all ages and for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the generally observed downward trend in elevated blood pressure in many other countries, levels in Russia have changed little over the past 40 years, although there are some positive trends among women. Improved strategies to bring down the high levels of mean blood pressure and hypertension in Russia compared to countries such as England and the USA are important to further reduce the high burden of CVD in Russia.


Assuntos
Hipertensão , Adulto , Pressão Sanguínea , Feminino , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos , Humanos , Hipertensão/tratamento farmacológico , Hipertensão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Federação Russa/epidemiologia
7.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 378, 2020 Mar 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32293365

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The study aims at identifying long-term trends and patterns of current smoking by age, gender, and education in Russia, including the most recent period from 2008 during which tobacco control policies were implemented, and to estimate the impact on mortality of any reductions in prevalence. We present an in-depth analysis based on an unprecedentedly large array of survey data. METHODS: We examined pooled micro-data on smoking from 17 rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Study of 1996-2016, 11 other surveys conducted in Russia in 1975-2017, and two comparator surveys from England and the USA. Standardization by age and education, regression and meta-analysis were used to estimate trends in the prevalence of current smoking by gender, age, and educational patterns. RESULTS: From the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s smoking prevalence among men was relatively stable at around 60%, after which time prevalence declined in every age and educational group. Among women, trends in smoking were more heterogeneous. Prevalence more than doubled above the age of 55 years from very low levels (< 5%). At younger ages, there were steep increases until the mid-2000s after which prevalence has declined. Trends differed by educational level, with women in the lowest educational category accounting for most of the long-term increase. We estimate that the decline in male smoking may have contributed 6.2% of the observed reduction in cardiovascular deaths among men in the period 2008-16. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of an effective tobacco control strategy in Russia starting in 2008 coincided with a decline in smoking prevalence among men from what had been stable, high levels over many decades regardless of age and education. Among women, the declines have been more uneven, with young women showing recent downturns, while the smoking prevalence in middle age has increased, particularly among those with minimal education. Among men, these positive changes will have made a small contribution to the reduction in mortality seen in Russia since 2005.


Assuntos
Política Pública , Política Antifumo , Abandono do Hábito de Fumar , Fumar Tabaco/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Escolaridade , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Federação Russa/epidemiologia , Fatores Sexuais , Fumantes , Fumar , Inquéritos e Questionários , Nicotiana , Produtos do Tabaco , Fumar Tabaco/tendências , Adulto Jovem
8.
Demography ; 54(4): 1579-1602, 2017 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28755276

RESUMO

This study proposes a new decomposition method that permits a difference in an aggregate measure at a final time point to be split into additive components corresponding to the initial differences in the event rates of the measure and differences in trends in these underlying event rates. For instance, when studying divergence in life expectancy, this method allows researchers to more easily contrast age-specific mortality trends between populations by controlling for initial age-specific mortality differences. Two approaches are assessed: (1) an additive change method that uses logic similar to cause-of-death decomposition, and (2) a contour decomposition method that extends the stepwise replacement algorithm along an age-period demographic contour. The two approaches produce similar results, but the contour method is more widely applicable. We provide a full description of the contour replacement method and examples of its application to life expectancy and lifetime disparity differences between the United States and England and Wales in the period 1980-2010.


Assuntos
Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Modelos Estatísticos , Mortalidade/tendências , Inglaterra , Humanos , Estados Unidos , País de Gales
10.
Popul Health Metr ; 14: 8, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27006644

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Reliable and comparable data on causes of death are crucial for public health analysis, but the usefulness of these data can be markedly diminished when the approach to coding is not standardized across territories and/or over time. Because the Russian system of producing information on causes of death is highly decentralized, there may be discrepancies in the coding practices employed across the country. In this study, we evaluate the uniformity of cause-of-death coding practices across Russian regions using an indirect method. METHODS: Based on 2002-2012 mortality data, we estimate the prevalence of the major causes of death (70 causes) in the mortality structures of 52 Russian regions. For each region-cause combination we measured the degree to which the share of a certain cause in the mortality structure of a certain region deviates from the respective inter-regional average share. We use heat map visualization and a regression model to determine whether there is regularity in the causes and the regions that is more likely to deviate from the average level across all regions. In addition to analyzing the comparability of cause-specific mortality structures in a spatial dimension, we examine the regional cause-of-death time series to identify the causes with temporal trends that vary greatly across regions. RESULTS: A high level of consistency was found both across regions and over time for transport accidents, most of the neoplasms, congenital malformations, and perinatal conditions. However, a high degree of inconsistency was found for mental and behavioral disorders, diseases of the nervous system, endocrine disorders, ill-defined causes of death, and certain cardiovascular diseases. This finding suggests that the coding practices for these causes of death are not uniform across regions. The level of consistency improves when causes of death can be grouped into broader diagnostic categories. CONCLUSION: This systematic analysis allows us to present a broader picture of the quality of cause-of-death coding at the regional level. For some causes of death, there is a high degree of variance across regions in the likelihood that these causes will be chosen as the underlying causes. In addition, for some causes of death the mortality statistics reflect the coding practices, rather than the real epidemiological situation.

11.
Popul Health Metr ; 14: 29, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27524940

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Over the past half century the global tendency for improvements in longevity has been uneven across countries. This has resulted in widening of inter-country disparities in life expectancy. Moreover, the pattern of divergence appears to be driven in part by processes at the level of country groupings defined in geopolitical terms. A systematic quantitative analysis of this phenomenon has not been possible using demographic decomposition approaches as these have not been suitably adapted for this purpose. In this paper we present an elaboration of conventional decomposition techniques to provide a toolkit for analysis of the inter-country variance, and illustrate its use by analyzing trends in life expectancy in developed countries over a 40-year period. METHODS: We analyze trends in the population-weighted variance of life expectancy at birth across 36 developed countries and three country groups over the period 1970-2010. We have modified existing decomposition approaches using the stepwise replacement algorithm to compute age components of changes in the total variance as well as variance between and within groups of Established Market Economies (EME), Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). The method is generally applicable to the decomposition of temporal changes in any aggregate index based on a set of populations. RESULTS: The divergence in life expectancy between developed countries has generally increased over the study period. This tendency dominated from the beginning of 1970s to the early 2000s, and reversed only after 2005. From 1970 to 2010, the total standard deviation of life expectancy increased from 2.0 to 5.6 years among men and from 1.0 to 3.6 years among women. This was determined by the between-group effects due to polarization between the EME and the FSU. The latter contrast was largely fueled by the long-term health crisis in Russia. With respect to age, the increase in the overall divergence was attributable to between-country differences in mortality changes at ages 15-64 years compared to those aged 65 and older. The within-group variance increased, especially among women. This change was mostly produced by growing mortality differences at ages 65 and older. CONCLUSIONS: From the early 1970s to the mid-2000s, the strong divergence in life expectancy across developed countries was largely determined by the between-group variance and mortality polarization linked to the East-West geopolitical division.


Assuntos
Países Desenvolvidos , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Longevidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Europa (Continente) , Feminino , Saúde , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade/tendências , Federação Russa , Fatores Sexuais , U.R.S.S. , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
12.
Acta Oncol ; 55(7): 859-64, 2016 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27070947

RESUMO

Background Our aim in this study is to provide a systematic assessment of the site-specific cancer survival rates of patients with different educational levels, using population-based census-linked registry data covering the entire population of Lithuania. Material and methods The study is based on the linkage between all records of the 2001 population census and all records from Lithuanian Cancer Registry (cancer incidence) and Statistics Lithuania (deaths) for the period between 6 April 2001 and 31 December 2009. Results For the vast majority of cancer sites we found an inverse gradient in survival, with the worst survival indicators in the lowest educational group. We estimated that 18.6% of the deaths in Lithuanian cancer patients could have potentially been postponed, if all the patients had the same cancer mortality as the patients with the highest educational level. Conclusion Our findings offer a warning that although the survival rates of cancer patients are improving, this progress hides disparities between different groups of patients.


Assuntos
Escolaridade , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Lituânia/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Sistema de Registros/estatística & dados numéricos , Taxa de Sobrevida
13.
Gerontology ; 62(3): 253-62, 2016.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26375385

RESUMO

In the second half of the 20th century, the advances in human longevity observed have been accompanied by an increase in the disparities between countries and regions. Education is one of the strongest predictors of life expectancy. Studies have shown that both relative and absolute mortality differences by education within countries have been increasing, even in the most developed and egalitarian countries. It is possible to assume that groups of highly educated people who systematically display life expectancy levels which are higher than the observed best practice (record) life expectancy at the national level are vanguards who are leading the way toward a lengthening of life for the remaining population groups. This evidence based on population-level statistics and exploring an important single factor could inspire further discussion about the possibilities for extending human length of life at the national level. However, more comprehensive and reliable data covering a larger number of countries and more covariates are needed for understanding health effects of education and prospects of human longevity.


Assuntos
Escolaridade , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Expectativa de Vida , Longevidade , Humanos
14.
Eur J Public Health ; 26(1): 95-101, 2016 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25841035

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have addressed the problem of hazardous alcohol consumption, alcohol-related causes of death and their relationship to persisting excess male mortality in the countries of the former USSR. Yet relatively little is known about the geographical patterns of alcohol-related mortality within these countries and the cross-border continuities of such patterns. This study aims at identifying the spatial distribution and the cross-border patterns of adult male mortality from alcohol poisonings and liver cirrhosis in Belarus and Lithuania. METHODS: We use cause-specific mortality data for 2003-2007. We employ spatial econometric techniques to detect 'hot spots' of alcohol-related mortality across the combined territory of the two countries. RESULTS: Specific patterns associated with extremely high rates of mortality from alcohol poisoning can be observed in Belarus, particularly in the areas bordering Russia and Lithuania. Meanwhile, patterns of alcohol-induced liver disease dominate in Lithuania, and continue across the border from eastern Lithuania into north-western Belarus. CONCLUSIONS: The districts located along the Belarusian-Lithuanian border appear to be especially problematic, as they suffer from an enormous burden of alcohol consumption. The situation is particularly severe on the Belarusian side, where there are extremely high levels of mortality from both alcohol poisoning and liver cirrhosis. These areas should be considered primary targets for antialcohol policies.


Assuntos
Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/mortalidade , Causas de Morte , Cirrose Hepática Alcoólica/mortalidade , Intoxicação/mortalidade , Adulto , Humanos , Lituânia/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , República de Belarus/epidemiologia , Características de Residência , Fatores de Risco , Análise Espacial , Adulto Jovem
15.
Popul Health Metr ; 13: 23, 2015.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26336362

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: We present a method for reclassifying external causes of death categorized as "event of undetermined intent" (EUIs) into non-transport accidents, suicides, or homicides. In nations like Russia and the UK the absolute number of EUIs is large, the EUI death rate is high, or EUIs comprise a non-trivial proportion of all deaths due to external causes. Overuse of this category may result in (1) substantially underestimating the mortality rate of deaths due to specific external causes and (2) threats to the validity of studies of the patterns and causes of external deaths and of evaluations of the impact of interventions meant to reduce them. METHODS: We employ available characteristics about the deceased and the event to estimate the most likely cause of death using multinomial logistic regression. We use the set of known non-transport accidents, suicides, and homicides to calculate an mlogit-based linear score and an estimated classification probability (ECP). This ECP is applied to EUIs, with varying levels of minimal classification probability. We also present an optional second step that employs a population-level adjustment to reclassify deaths that remain undetermined (the proportion of which varies based on the minimal classification probability). We illustrate our method by applying it to Russia. Between 2000 and 2011, 521,000 Russian deaths (15 % percent of all deaths from external causes) were categorized as EUIs. We used data from anonymized micro-data on the ~3 million deaths from external causes. Our reclassification model used 10 decedent and event characteristics from the computerized death records. RESULTS: Results show that during this period about 14 % of non-transport accidents, 13 % of suicides, and 33 % of homicides were officially categorized as EUIs. Our findings also suggest that 2011 levels of non-transport accidents and suicides would have been about 24 % higher and of homicide about 82 % higher than that reported by official vital statistics data. CONCLUSIONS: Overuse of the external cause of death classification "event of undetermined intent" may indicate questionable quality of mortality data on external causes of death. This can have wide-ranging implications for families, medical professionals, the justice system, researchers, and policymakers. With our classification probability set as equal to or higher than 0.75, we were able to reclassify about two-thirds of EUI deaths in our sample. Our optional additional step allowed us to redistribute the remaining unclassified EUIs. Our method can be applied to data from any nation or sub-national population in which the EUI category is employed.

16.
Lancet ; 381(9872): 1145-55, 2013 Mar 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23541055

RESUMO

The countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States differ substantially in their post-Soviet economic development but face many of the same challenges to health and health systems. Life expectancies dropped steeply in the 1990s, and several countries have yet to recover the levels noted before the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Cardiovascular disease is a much bigger killer in the Commonwealth of Independent States than in western Europe because of hazardous alcohol consumption and high smoking rates in men, the breakdown of social safety nets, rising social inequality, and inadequate health services. These former Soviet countries have embarked on reforms to their health systems, often aiming to strengthen primary care, scale back hospital capacities, reform mechanisms for paying providers and pooling funds, and address the overall shortage of public funding for health. However, major challenges remain, such as frequent private out-of-pocket payments for health care and underdeveloped systems for improvement of quality of care.


Assuntos
Planejamento em Saúde Comunitária , Comparação Transcultural , Indicadores Básicos de Saúde , Saúde Pública , Adulto , Idoso , Comunidade dos Estados Independentes , Feminino , Financiamento Pessoal , Gastos em Saúde , Transição Epidemiológica , Humanos , Expectativa de Vida , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Densidade Demográfica
17.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 29(9): 621-8, 2014 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25179794

RESUMO

Persisting high levels of cardiovascular mortality in Russia present a specific case among developed countries. Application of cardiovascular risk prediction models holds great potential for primary prevention in this country. Using a unique set of cohort follow-up data from Moscow and Saint Petersburg, this study aims to test and recalibrate the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) methods for predicting CVD mortality risks in the general population. The study is based on pooled epidemiological cohort data covering the period 1975-2001. The algorithms from the SCORE project were used for the calibration of the SCORE equation for the Moscow and St. Petersburg populations (SCORE-MoSP). Age-specific 10-year cumulative cardiovascular mortality rates were estimated according to the original SCORE-High and SCORE-Low equations and compared to the estimates based on the recalibrated SCORE-MoSP model and observed CVD mortality rates. Ten-year risk prediction charts for CVD mortality were derived and compared using conventional SCORE-High and recalibrated SCORE-MoSP methods. The original SCORE-High model tends to substantially under-estimate 10-year cardiovascular mortality risk for females. The SCORE-MoSP model provided better results which were closer to the observed rates. For males, both the SCORE-High and SCORE-MoSP provided similar estimates which tend to under-estimate CVD mortality risk at younger ages. These differences are also reflected in the risk prediction charts. Using non-calibrated scoring models for Russia may lead to substantial under-estimation of cardiovascular mortality risk in some groups of individuals. Although the SCORE-MoSP provide better results for females, more complex scoring methods involving a wider range of risk factors are needed.


Assuntos
Calibragem , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Medição de Risco/métodos , População Branca/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Algoritmos , Feminino , Indicadores Básicos de Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Vigilância da População , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Projetos de Pesquisa , Fatores de Risco , Federação Russa/epidemiologia
18.
Stress ; 16(4): 411-20, 2013 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23534869

RESUMO

Allostatic load theory implies a relationship between exposure to psychological stress and multi-system physiological dysregulation. We used data from population-based samples of men and women in Russia (Moscow; n = 1800; age, mean 68.6 years), Taiwan (n = 1036; 65.6 years) and the United States (US; n = 1054; 58.0 years) -- which are likely to vary widely with respect to levels of stress exposure and biological markers -- to determine the magnitude of the association between perceived stress and physiological dysregulation. The measure of overall dysregulation was based on 15 markers including standard cardiovascular/metabolic risk factors as well as markers of inflammation and neuroendocrine activity. Subjective psychological stress was measured by the perceived stress scale. Only the Moscow sample demonstrated a positive association with overall dysregulation in both sexes. In the US, we found an association among women but not men. Among the Taiwanese, who report the lowest perceived stress, there was no association in women but an unexpected inverse relationship in men. The effects also varied across system-level subscores: the association with perceived stress was most consistent for standard cardiovascular/metabolic factors. Perceived stress was associated with inflammation and neuroendocrine activity in some samples. Although the evidence that perceived stress is the primary source of physiological dysregulation is generally modest, it was stronger in Russia where the level of perceived stress was particularly high. For Russia only, we had information about heart function based on a 24 h ambulatory electrocardiogram; perceived stress was consistently associated with heart rate dysregulation in Russian men and women.


Assuntos
Alostase/fisiologia , Povo Asiático/psicologia , Percepção/fisiologia , Estresse Psicológico/fisiopatologia , População Branca/psicologia , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Biomarcadores , Sistema Cardiovascular/fisiopatologia , Creatinina/metabolismo , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Frequência Cardíaca , Humanos , Hidrocortisona/sangue , Inflamação/fisiopatologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Moscou/epidemiologia , Sistemas Neurossecretores/fisiologia , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Sexuais , Taiwan/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
19.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 28(5): 393-404, 2013 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23645505

RESUMO

Russia has very high mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD), with evidence that heavy drinking may play a role. To throw further light on this association we have studied the association of alcohol with predictors of CVD risk including B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). Levels of BNP increase primarily in response to abnormal cardiac chamber wall stretch which can occur both as a result of atherosclerosis as well as due to other types of damage to the myocardium. No previous population-based studies have investigated the association with alcohol. We analysed cross-sectional data on drinking behaviour in 993 men aged 25-60 years from the Izhevsk Family Study 2 (IFS2), conducted in the Russian city of Izhevsk in 2008-2009. Relative to non-drinkers, men who drank hazardously had an odds ratio (OR) of being in the top 20 % of the BNP distribution of 4.66 (95 % CI 2.13, 10.19) adjusted for age, obesity, waist-hip ratio, and smoking. Further adjustment for class of hypertension resulted in only slight attenuation of the effect, suggesting that this effect was not secondary to the influence of alcohol on blood pressure. In contrast hazardous drinking was associated with markedly raised ApoA1 and HDL cholesterol levels, but had little impact on levels of ApoB and LDL cholesterol. Similar but less pronounced associations were found in the Belfast (UK) component of the PRIME study conducted in 1991. These findings suggest that the association of heavy drinking with increased risk of cardiovascular disease may be partly due to alcohol-induced non-atherosclerotic damage to the myocardium.


Assuntos
Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/efeitos adversos , Apolipoproteína A-I/sangue , Apolipoproteínas B/sangue , Peptídeo Natriurético Encefálico/sangue , Adulto , Apolipoproteína A-I/metabolismo , Apolipoproteínas B/metabolismo , Pressão Sanguínea , Doenças Cardiovasculares/sangue , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , HDL-Colesterol/sangue , LDL-Colesterol/sangue , Estudos Transversais , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Peptídeo Natriurético Encefálico/metabolismo , Vigilância da População , Fatores de Risco , Federação Russa/epidemiologia , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Inquéritos e Questionários
20.
Lancet Reg Health Eur ; 29: 100631, 2023 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37180281

RESUMO

Background: Avoidable mortality, including both treatable and preventable deaths, is frequently used as an indicator of health system performance. Whilst the term treatable mortality refers to deaths that might be averted by medical interventions, preventable mortality generally reflects the impact of system-wide health policies. The concept of preventable mortality has not been evaluated extensively in the Russian Federation, particularly at the regional or sub-national (oblast) level. Methods: We calculated total preventable mortality as well as individual rates for males and females in each oblast using data from the Russian Fertility and Mortality Database (RusFMD) and computed the contributions of specific preventable causes of death to the overall rates. We also evaluated the relationship between preventable mortality and its main correlates during the years 2014-2018 using panel fixed effects modelling with variables that reflected both, behavioural risk factors and access to health care. Findings: Overall preventable mortality in the Russian Federation has been on a downward trend. Whilst 548 preventable deaths per 100,000 person-years were reported in the year 2000, only 301 per 100,000 person-years were reported in 2018. Whilst mortality due to cancer, cardiovascular, and alcohol-related diseases has declined (albeit unevenly) amongst both males and females, deaths resulting from complications of diabetes and human immunodeficiency virus infection have increased. Our findings also revealed significant heterogeneity in preventable mortality at the oblast level. For example, in 2018, deaths due to preventable causes were concentrated primarily in Siberia and the Far East. Smoking and the availability of nurses were identified as significant correlates of preventable mortality at the oblast level. Interpretations: Efforts designed to strengthen the current health care system, notably those serving the rural and less densely populated oblasts, might reduce the rate of preventable mortality in Russia. These efforts might be coupled with an ongoing focus on programs designed to reduce smoking. Funding: None.

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