Mortality and cardiovascular disease among older live kidney donors.

Over the past two decades, live kidney donation by older individuals (≥55 years) has become more common. Given the strong associations of older age with cardiovascular disease (CVD), nephrectomy could make older donors vulnerable to death and cardiovascular events. We performed a cohort study among older live kidney donors who were matched to healthy older individuals in the Health and Retirement Study. The primary outcome was mortality ascertained through national death registries. Secondary outcomes ascertained among pairs with Medicare coverage included death or CVD ascertained through Medicare claims data. During the period from 1996 to 2006, there were 5717 older donors in the United States. We matched 3368 donors 1:1 to older healthy nondonors. Among donors and matched pairs, the mean age was 59 years; 41% were male and 7% were black race. In median follow-up of 7.8 years, mortality was not different between donors and matched pairs (p = 0.21). Among donors with Medicare, the combined outcome of death/CVD (p = 0.70) was also not different between donors and nondonors. In summary, carefully selected older kidney donors do not face a higher risk of death or CVD. These findings should be provided to older individuals considering live kidney donation.

Matching One Sample According to Two Criteria in Observational Studies.

Multivariate matching has two goals: (i) to construct treated and control groups that have similar distributions of observed covariates, and (ii) to produce matched pairs or sets that are homogeneous in a few key covariates. When there are only a few binary covariates, both goals may be achieved by matching exactly for these few covariates. Commonly, however, there are many covariates, so goals (i) and (ii) come apart, and must be achieved by different means. As is also true in a randomized experiment, similar distributions can be achieved for a high-dimensional covariate, but close pairs can be achieved for only a few covariates. We introduce a new polynomial-time method for achieving both goals that substantially generalizes several existing methods; in particular, it can minimize the earthmover distance between two marginal distributions. The method involves minimum cost flow optimization in a network built around a tripartite graph, unlike the usual network built around a bipartite graph. In the tripartite graph, treated subjects appear twice, on the far left and the far right, with controls sandwiched between them, and efforts to balance covariates are represented on the right, while efforts to find close individual pairs are represented on the left. In this way, the two efforts may be pursued simultaneously without conflict. The method is applied to our on-going study in the Medicare population of the relationship between superior nursing and sepsis mortality. The match2C package in R implements the method.

A vaccine to prevent herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia in older adults.

BACKGROUND: The incidence and severity of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia increase with age in association with a progressive decline in cell-mediated immunity to varicella-zoster virus (VZV). We tested the hypothesis that vaccination against VZV would decrease the incidence, severity, or both of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia among older adults. METHODS: We enrolled 38,546 adults 60 years of age or older in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of an investigational live attenuated Oka/Merck VZV vaccine ("zoster vaccine"). Herpes zoster was diagnosed according to clinical and laboratory criteria. The pain and discomfort associated with herpes zoster were measured repeatedly for six months. The primary end point was the burden of illness due to herpes zoster, a measure affected by the incidence, severity, and duration of the associated pain and discomfort. The secondary end point was the incidence of postherpetic neuralgia. RESULTS: More than 95 percent of the subjects continued in the study to its completion, with a median of 3.12 years of surveillance for herpes zoster. A total of 957 confirmed cases of herpes zoster (315 among vaccine recipients and 642 among placebo recipients) and 107 cases of postherpetic neuralgia (27 among vaccine recipients and 80 among placebo recipients) were included in the efficacy analysis. The use of the zoster vaccine reduced the burden of illness due to herpes zoster by 61.1 percent (P<0.001), reduced the incidence of postherpetic neuralgia by 66.5 percent (P<0.001), and reduced the incidence of herpes zoster by 51.3 percent (P<0.001). Reactions at the injection site were more frequent among vaccine recipients but were generally mild. CONCLUSIONS: The zoster vaccine markedly reduced morbidity from herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia among older adults.

Models to predict outcome from childhood neuroblastoma: the role of serum ferritin and tumor histology.

We report on the development of three multiple logistic regression models to predict death from childhood neuroblastoma in patients treated without bone marrow transplantation. The models have been developed using a data set of 125 patients for whom age, stage, serum ferritin, and/or histology were available from diagnosis. Seventy-seven patients had all four variables recorded at diagnosis, 34 had age, stage, and serum ferritin, and 14 had age, stage, and histology. Minimum time from diagnosis for all patients was 3 years. The four-variable (full) model showed a predictive value positive rate (or 1 - the false positive rate) of 91.3% and a predictive value negative rate (or 1 - the false negative rate) of 94.4%. Survival curves, based on derived "good" and "poor" prognosis, were constructed for the full model of 77 patients and for the same patients using subset models either without ferritin or without histology. Correcting for prognostic factors noted at diagnosis, no time trend could be identified over the study period. Point estimates for the probability of death in all three models are displayed in graphical form. The results suggest that serum ferritin and tumor histology at diagnosis have independent prognostic significance and that patient outcome in neuroblastoma can be very accurately predicted with a four-variable model. Such information will help sort patients into good and poor prognosis for bone marrow transplant and intensive chemotherapy protocol triage and will help evaluate the efficacy of future therapeutic innovations.

Comparison of O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase activity in brain tumors and adjacent normal brain.

We assayed the activity of the DNA repair protein O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) in 60 human brain tumors to assess the effects of tumorigenesis in brain on DNA repair capability. Activity was not detectable (< 0.5 fmol/10(6) cells, i.e., < 300 molecules/cells) in 27% of the tumors. Measurable MGMT varied by more than 2 orders of magnitude, 0.5-104.1 fmol/10(6) cells. Mean tumor MGMT levels did not differ between the sexes but did vary widely between diagnostic groups. A significant inverse correlation was observed between tumor MGMT activity and patient age. We also assayed MGMT activity in overlying, histologically tumor-free brain resected with 25 tumors. Of these samples, 52% had no detectable MGMT activity, and the remainder had activity comparable to that in tumors ranging from 0.7-21.8 fmol/10(6) cells. MGMT activity in normal brain was also inversely correlated with patient age. For 15 of 25 (60%) paired samples, tumor activity was 2 to > 38-fold greater than that of normal brain; for 4 pairs (16%) tumor activity was 2.5 to > 17-fold lower than that of normal brain; the remaining 6 (24%) had no detectable activity in both tumor and normal tissue. These differences in the magnitudes and distributions of activities for tumor versus normal brain tissue were significant (P = 0.02), demonstrating that tumorigenesis in brain is often accompanied by marked elevation of MGMT.

O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase activity in adult gliomas: relation to patient and tumor characteristics.

The DNA repair protein O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) confers resistance to therapeutic methylating and chloroethylating agents in human brain tumor-derived cell lines. In this work, we assayed MGMT activity in 152 adult gliomas to establish correlates with patient and tumor characteristics. We also assayed MGMT in histologically normal brain adjacent to 87 tumors to characterize changes in activity accompanying neurocarcinogenesis. MGMT activity was detectable in 76% (115 of 152) of tumors, ranging approximately 300-fold from 0.30 to 89 fmol/10(6) cells (180-57,000 molecules/cell). Mean activity was 6.6 +/- 13 fmol/10(6) cells and varied 4-fold among diagnostic groups. The mean for oligodendrogliomas was 2-fold lower (P < 0.03), and for mixed oligodendroglioma-astrocytomas, the mean was 4-fold lower (P < 0.006) than for astroglial tumors. Twenty-five % of gliomas had no detectable MGMT activity (Mer- phenotype; < 0.25 fmol/10(6) cells or 150 molecules/cell). Glioma MGMT was inversely correlated with age (P < 0.01), consistent with the observed age dependence in the progenitor tissue of brain tumors (J. R. Silber et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 93: 6941-6946, 1996). Neither MGMT activity nor proportion of Mer- tumors differed by sex. Glioma MGMT was correlated with degree of aneuploidy (P < 0.006) but not with fraction of S-phase cells. Mean activity in tumors was 5-fold higher than in adjacent histologically normal brain (5.0 +/- 7.6 versus 1.1 +/- 1.9 fmol/10(6) cells; P < 0.001). Notably, elevation of tumor activity was observed in 62% of tissue pairs, ranging from 2-fold to > 105-fold. Moreover, 64% of Mer- normal tissue was accompanied by Mer+ tumor. These observations indicate that expression of MGMT activity is frequently activated and/or increased during human neurocarcinogenesis, and that the enhancement is not related to proliferation per se. Significantly, enhanced MGMT activity may heighten the resistance of brain tumors to therapeutic alkylating agents.

Malignant and nonmalignant brain tissues differ in their messenger RNA expression patterns for ERCC1 and ERCC2.

Perturbation of the DNA repair process appears to be responsible for the occurrence of a number of human diseases, which are usually associated with a propensity to develop internal malignancies and/or disorders of the central nervous system. We have been interested in the possibility that a subtle abnormality in DNA repair competency might be associated with the transformation of nonmalignant cells to the malignant state. To study this question, we assayed malignant and nonmalignant brain tissues from 19 individuals for mRNA expression levels of the human DNA repair genes ERCC1, ERCC2, and XPAC and for differential splicing of the ERCC1 transcript. We separately compared expression levels of these genes in the following situations: concordance of expression within malignant tissues; concordance of expression within nonmalignant tissues; concordance between malignant and nonmalignant tissues within individuals of the cohort; and concordance of gene expression between two nonmalignant tissue sites within a single individual. Linear regression analyses of mRNA values obtained suggested orderly concordance of these three DNA repair genes in nonmalignant tissues within the patient cohort and an excellent concordance of these genes between two separate biopsy sites from the same individual. In contrast, malignant tissues showed disruption of concordance between the full-length ERCC1 transcript and ERCC2, which have excision and helicase functions, respectively. Furthermore, within the same individuals, malignant tissues were discordant with nonmalignant tissues for ERCC1 and ERCC2, although concordance for XPAC was preserved. These data suggest that one molecular characteristic of human malignancy may be the disruption of the normal relationship between the excision and the helicase functions of the nucleotide excision repair pathway.

S1 nuclease does not cleave DNA at single-base mis-matches.

Three assays have been designed to detect the cleavage of duplex phi X174 DNA at single-base mis-matches. Studies with S1 nuclease failed to detect cleavage at mis-matches. S1 nuclease digestion at 37 and 55 degrees C failed to produce a preferential degradation of a multiply mis-matched heteroduplex when compared to a mis-match-free homo-duplex as analyzed by sedimentation on sucrose gradients. Other heteroduplex templates were not cleaved by S1 nuclease at a defined single-base mis-match when assayed by gel electrophoresis or by marker rescue. In all cases, the amount of S1 nuclease employed was at least 10-times more than that required to render a single-stranded phi X174 DNA molecule completely acid soluble. The rate of hydrolysis of single-base mis-matches by S1 nuclease was estimated to be less than 0.016% of the rate at a base in single-strand phi X174 DNA. In no instance did we detect activity by S1 nuclease directed at mis-matched sites in our template molecules. Similarly, the single-strand specific endonuclease from Neurospora crassa does not cleave heteroduplex templates at a defined single-base mis-match when assayed by marker rescue.

A Drosophila model to study the functions of TWIST orthologs in apoptosis and proliferation.

The twist gene has been characterized for its role in myogenesis in several species. In addition, in mammalian cultured cells, it has been shown that twist is a potential oncogene antagonizing p53-dependent apoptosis. To study, in vivo, the role of twist in apoptosis and proliferation, we constructed transgenic Drosophila lines allowing ectopic expression of different twist orthologs. We report that: (i) Drosophila twist induces apoptosis and activates the reaper promoter, (ii) nematode twist induces arrest of proliferation without apoptosis, and (iii) human twist retains its potentialities observed in mammalian cultured cells and antagonizes Drosophila p53-dependent apoptosis. In addition, we show that human twist is able to induce cell proliferation in Drosophila. Data suggest that the pathway by which human twist antagonizes Drosophila p53 could be conserved. These transgenic lines thus constitute a powerful tool to identify targets and modifiers of human twist.

Truncated products of the vestigial proliferation gene induce apoptosis.

The vestigial (vg) gene in D. melanogaster, whose mutant phenotype is characterized by wing atrophy, encodes a novel nuclear protein involved in cell proliferation. The original vg mutant (vgBG) displays massive apoptosis in the wing imaginal disc. Here we tested the hypothesis that the vg mutant phenotype could be due: (i) to lack of cell proliferation in null mutants due to the absence of the Vg product and, (ii) to apoptosis in vgBG and other mutants due to the presence of a major Vg truncated product. In agreement with our hypothesis no cell death was observed in null vg mutants, and the anticell death baculovirus P35 product is unable to rescue the mutant phenotype caused by absence of the Vg product. In addition, expression of the antiproliferative gene dacapo, the homolog of p21, induces a mutant wing phenotype without inducing cell death. In contrast the wing phenotype of the original vg mutant could be reproduced by the ectopic expression of the reaper cell death gene when expressed by vg regulatory sequences. In agreement with the hypothesis, the classic vg mutant spontaneously displays an increase in reaper expression in the wing disc and its phenotype can be partially rescued by the P35 product. Finally, we showed that ectopic expression of a truncated Vg product is able on its own to induce ectopic cell death and reaper expression. Our results shed new light on the function of the vg gene, in particular, they suggest that the normal and truncated products affect vg target genes in different ways.

The Drosophila wing differentiation factor vestigial-scalloped is required for cell proliferation and cell survival at the dorso-ventral boundary of the wing imaginal disc.

Links between genes involved in development, proliferation and apoptosis have been difficult to establish. In the Drosophila wing disc, the vestigial (vg) and the scalloped (sd) gene products dimerize to form a functional transcription factor. Ectopic expression of vg in other imaginal discs induces outgrowth and wing tissue specification. We investigated the role of the VG-SD dimer in proliferation and showed that vg antagonizes the effect of dacapo, the cyclin-cdk inhibitor. Moreover, ectopic vg drives cell cycle progression and in HeLa cultured cells, the VG-SD dimer induces cell proliferation per se. In Drosophila, ectopic vg induces expression of dE2F1 and its targets dRNR2 and string. In addition vg, but not dE2F1, interacts with and induces expression of dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR). Moreover, a decrease in VG or addition of aminopterin, a specific DHFR inhibitor, shift the dorso-ventral boundary cells of the disc to a cell death sensitive state that is correlated with reaper induction and DIAP1 downregulation. This indicates that vg in interaction with dE2F1 and DHFR is a critical player for both cell proliferation and cell survival in the presumptive wing margin area.

Successful management of low-stage neuroblastoma without adjuvant therapies: a comparison of two decades, 1972 through 1981 and 1982 through 1992, in a single institution.

PURPOSE: A review was undertaken of 119 children seen at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia between 1972 and 1992 to assess the impact of adjuvant therapies for patients with low-stage neuroblastoma (NBL). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Twenty-one of 119 International Neuroblastoma Staging System (INSS) stage 1, 2a, 2b, and 4s patients seen received initial adjuvant treatment postoperatively and 98 did not. The patients were further subdivided according to decade, age, presence of residual disease, and lymph node status. Outcomes were then compared. RESULTS: The event-free survival (EFS) rate for those who received adjuvant therapy was 52% versus 86% for those who did not. The 5-year survival rate was 68% and 94%, respectively. Age (< or > 12 months), extent of residual disease, and status of lymph nodes did not influence survival. Over the two decades, the reasons for selecting treatment changed as new and powerful additional prognostic factors were identified; 71% of patients received no adjuvant treatment in the first decade, compared with 90% in the second. EFS rates for untreated patients by decade were 79% and 89%, and 5-year survival rates were 85% and 98%, respectively. CONCLUSION: It is possible to define most low-stage NBL as favorable-even in patients with positive lymph nodes and gross residual disease-and to omit initial adjuvant treatments successfully.

Stature loss following skeletal irradiation for childhood cancer.

A model is presented to predict adult stature in children treated successfully for cancer outside the CNS. The model is based on radiation dose in Gray adjusted for location of therapy and attained stature (GALA); ideal adult stature (IAS), assuming the patient had not developed cancer, calculated by the Roche-Wainer-Thissen (RWT) method (which uses patient stature and weight before developing cancer, and parent stature data); a femur correction if both the acetabula or heads of both femurs were irradiated (FEMUR); and sex. The model was constructed using data from 49 patients with a mean time from completion of therapy to follow-up of 8.9 years (range, 3.3 to 15.4 years). Thirteen patients received no radiotherapy. All model coefficients were highly significant (P less than .001), and the model appears to be an excellent predictor of adult stature, with a multiple correlation coefficient of 0.84 (R2 = .74) between corrected adult stature (CAS) based on the most recent follow-up stature available for the patient projected to final adult stature, compared with the model's predicted adult stature (MPAS), based only on initial data at presentation and subsequent radiation treatment. Patients who did not receive radiotherapy did not have loss of stature, ie, there was no significant difference between IAS and CAS, (P less than .71; n = 13), but patients who received radiotherapy had shorter statures than would be expected from the healthy population model (P less than .0004; n = 36). The magnitude of the loss in stature appears to be well explained by the dose and location of radiation, the stature already achieved at the time of radiotherapy, along with IAS, FEMUR, and sex. We believe this model will help clinicians to predict the growth effects of radiotherapy in children with cancer not involving the CNS.

Cardiac dysfunction following spinal irradiation during childhood.

PURPOSE: Although spinal irradiation used in the treatment of CNS malignancies includes a portion of the heart in the radiation field, cardiac effects have not been previously reported. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We compared patients treated for malignancy in childhood with spinal irradiation (n = 26) with patients treated with mediastinal/flank irradiation (n = 47) that included the heart in the radiation field. All patients were more than 1 year from completion of radiation therapy. Patients underwent at least two of the following cardiac evaluations: (1) ECG; (2) 24-hour ambulatory ECG; (3) echocardiogram; and (4) exercise-testing using cycle ergometry. RESULTS: Twelve of 16 patients (75%) in the spinal irradiation group with an assessable exercise test achieved a maximal cardiac index (MCI) below the fifth percentile as compared with 13 of 40 patients (32%) who had received mediastinal/flank irradiation (P = .007). Furthermore, after adjusting for normal heart growth, radiation and anthracycline doses, and follow-up time, the group of patients who received spinal irradiation had significantly higher estimated posterior wall stress (P = .002), expressed as the natural logarithm of the ratio of end-diastolic left ventricular internal diameter (LVID) to left ventricular posterior wall thickness (LVPWT), than the group who had received mediastinal/flank irradiation. Finally, eight of 26 patients (31%) in the spinal group had pathologic Q-waves in the inferior leads versus three of 47 (6.4%) in the mediastinal/flank group (P = .001). CONCLUSION: Patients who have received spinal irradiation for pediatric malignancies appear to be at risk for significant cardiac dysfunction. The asymmetric distribution of radiation to a growing heart, as given with spinal irradiation, may be the cause of these findings.

First-cycle blood counts and subsequent neutropenia, dose reduction, or delay in early-stage breast cancer therapy.

PURPOSE: If patients could be ranked according to their projected need for supportive care therapy, then more efficient and less costly treatment algorithms might be developed. This work reports on the construction of a model of neutropenia, dose reduction, or delay that rank-orders patients according to their need for costly supportive care such as granulocyte growth factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A case series and consecutive sample of patients treated for breast cancer were studied. Patients had received standard-dose adjuvant chemotherapy for early-stage nonmetastatic breast cancer and were treated by four medical oncologists. Using 95 patients and validated with 80 additional patients, development models were constructed to predict one or more of the following events: neutropenia (absolute neutrophil count [ANC] < or = 250/microL), dose reduction > or = 15% of that scheduled, or treatment delay > or = 7 days. Two approaches to modeling were attempted. The pretreatment approach used only pretreatment predictors such as chemotherapy regimen and radiation history; the conditional approach included, in addition, blood count information obtained in the first cycle of treatment. RESULTS: The pretreatment model was unsuccessful at predicting neutropenia, dose reduction, or delay (c-statistic = 0.63). Conditional models were good predictors of subsequent events after cycle 1 (c-statistic = 0.87 and 0.78 for development and validation samples, respectively). The depth of the first-cycle ANC was an excellent predictor of events in subsequent cycles (P = .0001 to .004). Chemotherapy plus radiation also increased the risk of subsequent events (P = .0011 to .0901). Decline in hemoglobin (HGB) level during the first cycle of therapy was a significant predictor of events in the development study (P = .0074 and .0015), and although the trend was similar in the validation study, HGB decline failed to reach statistical significance. CONCLUSION: It is possible to rank patients according to their need of supportive care based on blood counts observed in the first cycle of therapy. Such rankings may aid in the choice of appropriate supportive care for patients with early-stage breast cancer.

Residual disease at the end of induction therapy as a predictor of relapse during therapy in childhood B-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

PURPOSE: More than 95% of children with B-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) achieve a clinical remission after the induction phase of chemotherapy (first 28 days) as evaluated by morphologic criteria. However, relapse occurs in approximately 30% of these children. The objective of this study was to determine whether the outcome of patients in clinical remission at the end of induction therapy could be predicted using a highly sensitive method to detect residual disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All children diagnosed with B-lineage ALL at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia during a 2-year period were eligible. The extent of residual leukemia was quantitated in remission marrow samples obtained at the end of induction therapy in 44 children using a phage clonogenic assay in association with complementarity-determining-region 3 (CDR3)-polymerase chain reaction (PCR). RESULTS: Residual disease was a significant predictor of outcome independent of WBC count, age, or sex. The estimated relapse-free survival (RFS) during therapy was 50.4% (+/- 12.6%) for patients with high residual disease (> or = 0.6% leukemia cells among total marrow B cells) versus 91.9% (+/- 5.5%) for those with lower levels (P < .002). There were no significant differences in off-treatment RFS between patients with high or low residual disease who completed therapy in continuous remission (P = .82). The overall estimated RFS was 32.3% (+/- 11.6%) for patients with high residual disease versus 62.6% (+/- 10.7%) for patients with lower levels of residual leukemia cells, with a median follow-up of 5.3 years for patients in continuous remission (P < .008). CONCLUSION: PCR detection of high residual disease at the end of induction therapy identifies patients at increased risk for relapse during therapy.

Whole-brain irradiation and decline in intelligence: the influence of dose and age on IQ score.

PURPOSE: Decline in intelligence can occur after whole-brain cranial irradiation for childhood malignancy. The purpose of this analysis was to estimate better the impact of dose and age at time of irradiation on IQ decline. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 48 children were studied. We combined two previously reported studies that included 15 patients with pediatric acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) and 18 pediatric patients with medulloblastoma/posterior fossa primitive neural ectodermal tumors (PNETs) in whom serial IQ tests were administered. Another 15 patients (nine ALL and six PNET) were studied subsequent to these reports. This experience included ALL patients who were treated with whole-brain irradiation at doses of 18 Gy (n = 9) and 24 Gy (n = 15), and PNET patients who were treated with 18 Gy (n = 5), 22 to 24 Gy (n = 2), and 32 to 40 Gy (n = 17). Multiple regression models were constructed to estimate expected IQ score after treatment based on initial IQ score, age at treatment, and dose of whole-brain irradiation. RESULTS: Using a multiple linear regression model to correct for initial IQ and age at treatment, patients who received a dose of 36 Gy to the whole brain were estimated to score 8.2 points less on IQ testing than those with 24 Gy (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 14.6) and 12.3 points less than those who received 18 Gy (95% CI, 2.7 to 21.7). Older age at the time of irradiation resulted in less decline in subsequent IQ score. The predicted IQ decline is 11.9 points less in a 10-year-old patient than in a 3-year-old patient (95% CI, 4.2 to 19.6) for equivalent doses of irradiation. The model to predict IQ accounts for half the total variation in IQ score. There was no significant difference between the coefficients that reflected IQ decrease from radiation dose between subgroups who had ALL versus those with PNET. CONCLUSIONS: One can forecast final IQ score based on the initial IQ score, dose of irradiation, and age at time of irradiation. Our findings should aid in the selection of appropriate therapy when whole-brain irradiation is needed.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor use in early-stage breast cancer.

PURPOSE: To model the cost-effectiveness (CE) of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) in early-stage breast cancer when its use is directed to those most in need of the medication. METHODS: A conditional CE model was developed for the use of G-CSF based on a ranking of patient need as determined by patient blood counts during the first cycle of chemotherapy. In the base case, no G-CSF was used. In the alternative case, G-CSF was used in the following manner. If the risk of a neutropenic event (as defined by a predictive model based on nadir absolute neutrophil count [ANC] and hemoglobin decrease in cycle 1) was equal to or exceeded a predetermined critical value "T," then patients would receive G-CSF in cycles 2 through 6 of chemotherapy. If the risk of an event was less than T, patients would not use G-CSF unless an event occurred, at which time G-CSF would be administered with every subsequent cycle. RESULTS: A decision rule (T) that would allow the most needy 50% of early-stage breast cancer patients to receive G-CSF after the first cycle of chemotherapy resulted in a CE ratio of $34,297 dollars per life-year saved (LYS). If only the most needy 10% of patients received G-CSF, then the associated CE ratio was $23,748/LYS; if 90% of patients could receive the medication, the CE ratio would be $76,487/LYS. These estimates were relatively insensitive to inpatient hospital cost estimates (inpatient costs for fever and neutropenia of $3,090 to $7,726 per admission produced dollar per LYS figures of $34,297 to $32,415, respectively). However, the model was sensitive to assumptions about the shape of the relationship between dose reduction and disease-free survival (DFS) at 3 years. CONCLUSION: Providing G-CSF to the neediest 50% of early-stage breast cancer patients (as defined by first-cycle blood counts) starting after the first cycle of chemotherapy is associated with a CE ratio of $34,297/LYS, which is well in the range of CE ratios for treatment of other common medical conditions. Furthermore, conditional CE studies, based on predictive models that incorporate individual patient risk, allow one to define populations for which therapy is, or is not, cost-effective. Limitations of our present understanding of the shape of the chemotherapy dose-response curve, especially at low levels of dose reductions, affect these results. Further work is required to define the shape of the dose-response curve in early-stage breast cancer.

Matching and thick description in an observational study of mortality after surgery.

Multivariate matching permits the construction of matched pairs or matched sets that balance large numbers of observed covariates. Unlike model-based adjustments, in matching a patient remains intact as a single patient, and may be scrutinized as an individual and thickly described. A thick description entails a detailed, perhaps narrative, account of a patient's care, for instance, the account one might find in the 'Case Reports from the Massachusetts General Hospital' as published in the New England Journal of Medicine. While discussing certain principles of thick description, we illustrate using data from the pilot for a case-control study of the causes of death following surgery. Matching is based on billing data from Medicare, and the medical charts of matched pairs are then abstracted. In the pilot, we matched cases and controls in one hospital, located and scrutinized their medical charts. As a consequence, we corrected our misinterpretations of aspects of Medicare billing data, thereby improving the matching for the full study. Also, looking at charts suggested topics for investigation and helped us understand the types of information we might reliably find in charts, and this reshaped our plans for chart abstraction. Our central claim is that, unlike other methods of adjustment, matching facilitates thick description of a handful of cases, and such scrutiny of cases benefits statistical studies at several stages. Thick description of a few matched cases is used repeatedly to improve the matching and to design further data collection for the matched sample. Thick description aids matching by providing close examination of what the matching has actually accomplished, an examination that uses much more information than is available for use in matching. Matching aids thick description by placing side by side two patients who are fairly comparable, so that a thick description of them may usefully be performed.