A systematic meta-review of patient-level predictors of psychological therapy outcome in major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Psychological therapies are effective for treating major depressive disorder, but current clinical guidelines do not provide guidance on the personalization of treatment choice. Established predictors of psychotherapy treatment response could help inform machine learning models aimed at predicting individual patient responses to different therapy options. Here we sought to comprehensively identify known predictors. METHODS: EMBASE, Medline, PubMed, PsycINFO were searched for systematic reviews with or without meta-analysis published until June 2020 to identify individual patient-level predictors of response to psychological treatments. 3113 abstracts were identified and 300 articles assessed. We qualitatively synthesized our findings by predictor category (sociodemographic; symptom profile; social support; personality features; affective, cognitive, and behavioural; comorbidities; neuroimaging; genetics) and treatment type. We used the AMSTAR 2 to evaluate the quality of included reviews. RESULTS: Following screening and full-text assessment, 27 systematic reviews including 12 meta-analyses were eligible for inclusion. 74 predictors emerged for various psychological treatments, primarily cognitive behavioural therapy, interpersonal therapy, and mindfulness-based cognitive therapy. LIMITATIONS: A paucity of studies examining predictors of psychological treatment outcome, as well as methodological heterogeneities and publication biases limit the strength of the identified predictors. CONCLUSIONS: The synthesized predictors could be used to supplement clinical decision-making in selecting psychological therapies based on individual patient characteristics. These predictors could also be used as a priori input features for machine learning models aimed at predicting a given patient's likelihood of response to different treatment options for depression, and may contribute toward the development of patient-specific treatment recommendations in clinical guidelines.

Evaluating the perceived utility of an artificial intelligence-powered clinical decision support system for depression treatment using a simulation center.

Aifred is a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that uses artificial intelligence to assist physicians in selecting treatments for major depressive disorder (MDD) by providing probabilities of remission for different treatment options based on patient characteristics. We evaluated the utility of the CDSS as perceived by physicians participating in simulated clinical interactions. Twenty physicians who were either staff or residents in psychiatry or family medicine completed a study in which they had three 10-minute clinical interactions with standardized patients portraying mild, moderate, and severe episodes of MDD. During these scenarios, physicians were given access to the CDSS, which they could use in their treatment decisions. The perceived utility of the CDSS was assessed through self-report questionnaires, scenario observations, and interviews. 60% of physicians perceived the CDSS to be a useful tool in their treatment-selection process, with family physicians perceiving the greatest utility. Moreover, 50% of physicians would use the tool for all patients with depression, with an additional 35% noting that they would reserve the tool for more severe or treatment-resistant patients. Furthermore, clinicians found the tool to be useful in discussing treatment options with patients. The efficacy of this CDSS and its potential to improve treatment outcomes must be further evaluated in clinical trials.