The future burden of CKD in the United States: a simulation model for the CDC CKD Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Awareness of chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined by kidney damage or reduced glomerular filtration rate, remains low in the United States, and few estimates of its future burden exist. STUDY DESIGN: We used the CKD Health Policy Model to simulate the residual lifetime incidence of CKD and project the prevalence of CKD in 2020 and 2030. The simulation sample was based on nationally representative data from the 1999 to 2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. SETTING & POPULATION: Current US population. MODEL, PERSPECTIVE, & TIMELINE: Simulation model following up individuals from current age through death or age 90 years. OUTCOMES: Residual lifetime incidence represents the projected percentage of persons who will develop new CKD during their lifetimes. Future prevalence is projected for 2020 and 2030. MEASUREMENTS: Development and progression of CKD are based on annual decrements in estimated glomerular filtration rates that depend on age and risk factors. RESULTS: For US adults aged 30 to 49, 50 to 64, and 65 years or older with no CKD at baseline, the residual lifetime incidences of CKD are 54%, 52%, and 42%, respectively. The prevalence of CKD in adults 30 years or older is projected to increase from 13.2% currently to 14.4% in 2020 and 16.7% in 2030. LIMITATIONS: Due to limited data, our simulation model estimates are based on assumptions about annual decrements in estimated glomerular filtration rates. CONCLUSIONS: For an individual, lifetime risk of CKD is high, with more than half the US adults aged 30 to 64 years likely to develop CKD. Knowing the lifetime incidence of CKD may raise individuals' awareness and encourage them to take steps to prevent CKD. From a national burden perspective, we estimate that the population prevalence of CKD will increase in coming decades, suggesting that development of interventions to slow CKD onset and progression should be considered.

Annual healthcare spending attributable to cigarette smoking: an update.

BACKGROUND: Fifty years after the first Surgeon General's report, tobacco use remains the nation's leading preventable cause of death and disease, despite declines in adult cigarette smoking prevalence. Smoking-attributable healthcare spending is an important part of overall smoking-attributable costs in the U.S. PURPOSE: To update annual smoking-attributable healthcare spending in the U.S. and provide smoking-attributable healthcare spending estimates by payer (e.g., Medicare, Medicaid, private insurance) or type of medical services. METHODS: Analyses used data from the 2006-2010 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey linked to the 2004-2009 National Health Interview Survey. Estimates from two-part models were combined to predict the share of annual healthcare spending that could be attributable to cigarette smoking. The analysis was conducted in 2013. RESULTS: By 2010, 8.7% (95% CI=6.8%, 11.2%) of annual healthcare spending in the U.S. could be attributed to cigarette smoking, amounting to as much as $170 billion per year. More than 60% of the attributable spending was paid by public programs, including Medicare, other federally sponsored programs, or Medicaid. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that comprehensive tobacco control programs and policies are still needed to continue progress toward ending the tobacco epidemic in the U.S. 50 years after the release of the first Surgeon General's report on smoking and health.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of the first federally funded antismoking campaign.

BACKGROUND: In 2012, CDC launched the first federally funded national mass media antismoking campaign. The Tips From Former Smokers (Tips) campaign resulted in a 12% relative increase in population-level quit attempts. PURPOSE: Cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted in 2013 to evaluate Tips from a funding agency's perspective. METHODS: Estimates of sustained cessations; premature deaths averted; undiscounted life years (LYs) saved; and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained by Tips were estimated. RESULTS: Tips saved about 179,099 QALYs and prevented 17,109 premature deaths in the U.S. With the campaign cost of roughly $48 million, Tips spent approximately $480 per quitter, $2,819 per premature death averted, $393 per LY saved, and $268 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Tips was not only successful at reducing smoking-attributable morbidity and mortality but also was a highly cost-effective mass media intervention.

New York tobacco control program cessation assistance: costs, benefits, and effectiveness.

Tobacco use and cigarette smoking have long been causally linked to a wide variety of poor health outcomes, resulting in a number of public health policy initiatives to reduce prevalence and consumption. Benefits of these initiatives, however, have not been well-established quantitatively. Using 2005-2008 New York Adult Tobacco Survey data, we developed a simulation model to estimate the effectiveness and net benefits of the New York Tobacco Control Program's (NY TCP's) adult smoking cessation assistance initiatives, specifically media campaigns, telephone quitline counseling, and nicotine replacement therapy. In 2008, we estimate that NY TCP generated an estimated 49,195 additional, non-relapsing adult quits (95% CI: 19,878; 87,561) for a net benefit of over $800 million (95% CI: $211 million; $1,575 million). Although the simulation results varied considerably, reflecting uncertainty in the estimates and data, and data sufficient to establish definite causality are lacking, the cessation initiatives examined appear to yield substantial societal benefits. These benefits are of sufficient magnitude to fully offset expenditures not only on these initiatives, but on NY TCP as a whole.