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BACKGROUND: Human activities are driving climate, land cover, and population change (global change), and shifting the baseline geographical distribution of snakebite. The interacting effects of global change on snakes and communities at risk of snakebite are poorly understood, limiting capacity to anticipate and manage future changes in snakebite risk. METHODS: In this modelling study, we projected how global change will affect snakebite envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka, as a model system that has a high incidence of snakebite. We used the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenario analysis framework to integrate forecasts across the domains of: climate change (historical trend from WorldClim plus three underlying regional circulation models [RCMs] in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment-South Asia repository, with two emissions pathways [representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5]); land cover change (Dyna-CLUE model); and human population density change (based on Gridded Population of the World data) from Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2050. Forecasts were integrated under three different development scenarios: a sustainability pathway (SSP1 and no further emissions), a middle-of-the-road pathway (SSP2 and RCP4.5), and a fossil-fuelled pathway (SSP5 and RCP8.5). For SSP2 and SSP5, we nested three different RCMs (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CCM3, and MPI-ESM-LR; mean averaged to represent consensus) to account for variability in climate predictions. Data were used as inputs to a mechanistic model that predicted snakebite envenoming incidence based on human-snake contact patterns. FINDINGS: From 2010 to 2050, at the national level, envenoming incidence in Sri Lanka was projected to decrease by 12·0-23·0%, depending on the scenario. The rate of decrease in envenoming incidence was higher in SSP5-RCP8.5 than in SSP1 and SSP2-RCP4.5. Change in envenoming incidence was heterogenous across the country. In SSP1, incidence decreased in urban areas expected to have population growth, and with land cover changes towards anthropised classes. In SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5, most areas were projected to have decreases in incidence (SSP5-RCP8.5 showing the largest area with incidence reductions), while areas such as the central highlands and the north of the country showed localised increases. In the model, decreases occurred with human population growth, land use change towards anthropised classes (potentially shifting occupational risk factors), and decreasing abundance of some snake species, potentially due to global warming and reduced climatic and habitat suitability, with displacement of some snake species. INTERPRETATION: Snakebite envenoming incidence was projected to decrease overall in the coming decades in Sri Lanka, but with an apparent emerging conflict with sustainability objectives. Therefore, efforts to mitigate snakebite envenoming incidence will need to consider the potential impacts of sustainability interventions, particularly related to climate and land use change and in areas where increases in incidence are projected. In view of global change, neglected tropical diseases and public health issues related to biodiversity, such as snakebite, should be managed collaboratively by both environment and health stakeholders. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.
Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Mordeduras de Serpentes , Mordeduras de Serpentes/epidemiologia , Incidência , Sri Lanka/epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Previsões , Animais , SerpentesRESUMO
Snake diversity in the island of Sri Lanka is extremely high, hosting at least 89 inland (i.e., non-marine) snake species, of which at least 49 are endemic. This includes the endemic genera Aspidura, Balanophis, Cercaspis, Haplocercus, and Pseudotyphlops, which are of uncertain phylogenetic affinity. We present phylogenetic evidence from nuclear and mitochondrial loci showing the relationships of 40 snake species from Sri Lanka (22 endemics) to the remaining global snake fauna. To determine the phylogenetic placement of these species, we create a molecular dataset containing 10 genes for all global snake genera, while also sampling all available species for genera with endemic species occurring in Sri Lanka. Our sampling comprises five mitochondrial genes (12S, 16S, cyt-b, ND2, and ND4) and five nuclear genes (BDNF, c-mos, NT3 RAG-1, and RAG-2), for a total of up to 9582bp per taxon. We find that the five endemic genera represent portions of four independent colonizations of Sri Lanka, with Cercaspis nested within Colubrinae, Balanophis in Natricinae, Pseudotyphlops in Uropeltidae, and that Aspidura+Haplocercus represents a distinct, ancient lineage within Natricinae. We synonymize two endemic genera that render other genera paraphyletic (Haplocercus with Aspidura, and Cercaspis with Lycodon), and discover that further endemic radiations may be present on the island, including a new taxon from the blindsnake family Typhlopidae, suggesting a large endemic radiation. Despite its small size relative to other islands such as New Guinea, Borneo, and Madagascar, Sri Lanka has one of the most phylogenetically diverse island snake faunas in the world, and more research is needed to characterize the island's biodiversity, with numerous undescribed species in multiple lineages.
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Distribuição Animal , Biodiversidade , Filogenia , Serpentes/classificação , Serpentes/genética , Animais , Sequência de Bases , DNA Mitocondrial/genética , Funções Verossimilhança , Modelos Genéticos , Dados de Sequência Molecular , Análise de Sequência de DNA , Sri LankaRESUMO
Opportunistic observations of Erabu sea kraits (Laticauda semifaciata) provide evidence that this species undertake a novel foraging tactic; coordinated communal hunting. Erabu sea kraits prey on cryptic fish species in highly complex reef habitats. Intra- and interspecific cooperative hunting strategies may increase chances for all members of the hunting party to encounter and capture prey in these complex habitats. Here, we observed 52 instances of communal hunting by Erabu sea kraits with conspecifics and other predatory fishes at recreational dive sites in Southern Lombok, Indonesia. These observations highlight the potential higher cognitive capacity of sea kraits to coordinate activities around communal hunting events.
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Laticauda , Comportamento Predatório , Animais , Ecossistema , PeixesRESUMO
Dynamic colour change is widespread in ectothermic animals, but has primarily been studied in the context of background matching. For most species, we lack quantitative data on the extent of colour change across different contexts. It is also unclear whether and how colour change varies across body regions, and how overall sexual dichromatism relates to the extent of individual colour change. In this study, we obtained reflectance measures in response to different stimuli for males and females of six species of agamid lizards (Agamidae, sister family to Chameleonidae) comprising three closely related species pairs. We computed the colour volume in a lizard-vision colour space occupied by males and females of each species and estimated overall sexual dichromatism based on the area of non-overlapping male and female colour volumes. As expected, males had larger colour volumes than females, but the extent of colour change in males differed between species and between body regions. Notably, species that were most sexually dichromatic were not necessarily those in which males showed the greatest individual colour change. Our results indicate that the extent of colour change is independent of the degree of sexual dichromatism and demonstrate that colour change on different body regions can vary substantially even between pairs of closely related species.
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Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers' behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers' adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.
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Jacarés e Crocodilos/fisiologia , Migração Animal , Tubarões/fisiologia , Animais , Água DoceRESUMO
Biological invasions can modify the behaviour of vulnerable native species in subtle ways. For example, native predators may learn or evolve to reduce foraging in conditions (habitats, times of day) that expose them to a toxic invasive species. In tropical Australia, freshwater crocodiles (Crocodylus johnstoni) are often fatally poisoned when they ingest invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina). The risk may be greatest if toads are seized on land, where a predator cannot wash away the toxins before they are absorbed into its bloodstream. Hence, toad invasion might induce crocodiles to forage in aquatic habitats only, foregoing terrestrial hunting. To test this idea, we conducted standardised trials of bait presentation to free-ranging crocodiles in sites with and without invasive toads. As anticipated, crocodiles rapidly learned to avoid consuming toads, and shifted to almost exclusively aquatic foraging.
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Jacarés e Crocodilos , Comportamento Alimentar , Espécies Introduzidas , Animais , Anuros , Austrália OcidentalRESUMO
In tropical Australia, conditioned taste aversion (CTA) can buffer vulnerable native predators from the invasion of a toxic prey species (cane toads, Rhinella marina). Thus, we need to develop methods to deploy aversion-inducing baits in the field, in ways that maximize uptake by vulnerable species (but not other taxa). We constructed and field-tested baiting devices, in situ with wild animals. Apparatus were set next to waterbodies and baited concurrently at multiple locations (over water, water's edge, and on the bank). Baits were checked and replaced twice daily during the trial; remote cameras recorded visitation by native predators. Bait longevity was compared at sun-exposed and shaded locations over 12 h. The strength required to remove baits from apparatus was measured in varanids and crocodiles. The device promoted high rates of bait uptake by freshwater crocodiles (47% baits consumed), varanid lizards (19% baits consumed), and non-target taxa (34% baits consumed). Targeting specific predators can be achieved by manipulating bait location and time of deployment, as well as the force required to dislodge the bait. Crocodiles were best targeted with over-water baits, whereas varanid lizards preferred baits located at the edges of waterbodies. When testing bait longevity in ambient conditions, during the daytime baits desiccated fully within 12 h, and faster in the sun than in the shade. Based on studies using captive animals, the "pulling force" strength of reptilian predators scaled with body size and was greater in crocodiles than in varanid lizards. We present the first conservation baiting protocol designed specifically for reptiles. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of widespread and taxon-specific deployment of aversion-inducing baits to buffer the impacts of invasive cane toads, and our methods are applicable (with modification) to other research and management programs globally.
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Abnormal caudal regeneration, the production of additional tails through regeneration events, occurs in lepidosaurs as a result of incomplete autotomy or sufficient caudal wound. Despite being widely known to occur, documented events generally are limited to opportunistic single observations - hindering the understanding of the ecological importance of caudal regeneration. Here we compiled and reviewed a robust global database of both peer-reviewed and non-peer reviewed records of abnormal regeneration events in lepidosaurs published over the last 400 years. Using this database, we qualitatively and quantitatively assessed the occurrence and characteristics of abnormal tail regeneration among individuals, among species, and among populations. We identified 425 observations from 366 records pertaining to 175 species of lepidosaurs across 22 families from 63 different countries. At an individual level, regenerations ranged from bifurcations to hexafurcations; from normal regeneration from the original tail to multiple regenerations arising from a single point; and from growth from the distal third to the proximal third of the tail. Species showing abnormal regenerations included those with intra-vertebral, inter-vertebral or no autotomy planes, indicating that abnormal regenerations evidently occur across lepidosaurs regardless of whether the species demonstrates caudal autotomy or not. Within populations, abnormal regenerations were estimated at a mean ± SD of 2.75 ± 3.41% (range 0.1-16.7%). There is a significant lack of experimental studies to understand the potential ecological impacts of regeneration on the fitness and life history of individuals and populations. We hypothesised that abnormal regeneration may affect lepidosaurs via influencing kinematics of locomotion, restrictions in escape mechanisms, anti-predation tactics, and intra- and inter-specific signalling. Behaviourally testing these hypotheses would be an important future research direction.
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Lagartos , Animais , Fenômenos Biomecânicos , Humanos , Locomoção , Comportamento PredatórioRESUMO
Large-bodied predators are well represented among the world's threatened and endangered species. A significant body of literature shows that in terrestrial and marine ecosystems large predators can play important roles in ecosystem structure and functioning. By contrast, the ecological roles and importance of large predators within freshwater ecosystems are poorly understood, constraining the design and implementation of optimal conservation strategies for freshwater ecosystems. Conservationists and environmentalists frequently promulgate ecological roles that crocodylians are assumed to fulfil, but often with limited evidence supporting those claims. Here, we review the available information on the ecological importance of crocodylians, a widely distributed group of predominantly freshwater-dwelling, large-bodied predators. We synthesise information regarding the role of crocodylians under five criteria within the context of modern ecological concepts: as indicators of ecological health, as ecosystem engineers, apex predators, keystone species, and as contributors to nutrient and energy translocation across ecosystems. Some crocodylians play a role as indicators of ecosystem health, but this is largely untested across the order Crocodylia. By contrast, the role of crocodylian activities in ecosystem engineering is largely anecdotal, and information supporting their assumed role as apex predators is currently limited to only a few species. Whether crocodylians contribute significantly to nutrient and energy translocation through cross-ecosystem movements is unknown. We conclude that most claims regarding the importance of crocodylians as apex predators, keystone species, ecosystem engineers, and as contributors to nutrient and energy translocation across ecosystems are mostly unsubstantiated speculation, drawn from anecdotal observations made during research carried out primarily for other purposes. There is a paucity of biological research targeted directly at: understanding population dynamics; trophic interactions within their ecological communities; and quantifying the short- and long-term ecological impacts of crocodylian population declines, extirpations, and recoveries. Conservation practices ideally need evidence-based planning, decision making and justification. Addressing the knowledge gaps identified here will be important for achieving effective conservation of crocodylians.
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Jacarés e Crocodilos/fisiologia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Animais , Espécies em Perigo de Extinção , Água Doce , Pesquisa/tendênciasRESUMO
A recent paper dealing with the systematics of Uropeltidae (Pyron et al. 2016) made several taxonomic changes affecting Sri Lankan species in the genera Platyplectrurus Günther, 1868; Pseudotyphlops Schlegel, 1839; Rhinophis Hemprich, 1820; and Uropeltis Cuvier, 1829. Space precluded a full discussion of those changes, for which there was a wealth of additional photographs, data, and references. Here, we expand on those alterations and provide further justification with reference to the ICZN (1999) and additional questions for future research.
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Serpentes , Animais , Sri LankaRESUMO
Many species of lizard use caudal autotomy, the ability to self-amputate a portion of their tail, regenerated over time, as an effective anti-predation mechanism. The importance of this tactic for survival depends on the degree of predation risk. There are, however, negative trade-offs to losing a tail, such as loss of further autotomy opportunities with the regenerated tail vertebrae being replaced by a continuous cartilaginous rod. The common consensus has been that once a tail has been autotomised and regenerated it can only be autotomised proximal to the last vertebral autotomy point, as the cartilage rod lacks autotomy planes. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that although the regenerated portion of the tail is unable to autotomise, it can re-regenerate following a physical shearing event. We assessed re-regeneration in three populations of the King's skink (Egernia kingii), a large lizard endemic to south-west Western Australia and surrounding islands. We show that re-regeneration is present at an average of 17.2% across the three populations, and re-regenerated tissue can comprise up to 23.3% of an individual's total tail length. The ability to re-regenerate may minimise the costs to an individual's fitness associated with tail loss, efficiently restoring ecological functions of the tail.
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Lagartos/fisiologia , Regeneração/fisiologia , Cauda/fisiologia , Animais , Cartilagem , Comportamento Predatório , Austrália OcidentalRESUMO
The colubrid snake Chrysopelea taprobanica Smith, 1943 was described from a holotype from Kanthali (= Kantalai) and paratypes from Kurunegala, both localities in Sri Lanka (formerly Ceylon) (Smith 1943). Since its description, literature pertaining to Sri Lankan snake fauna considered this taxon to be endemic to the island (Taylor 1950, Deraniyagala 1955, de Silva 1980, de Silva 1990, Somaweera 2004, Somaweera 2006, de Silva 2009, Pyron et al. 2013). In addition, earlier efforts on the Indian peninsula (e.g. Das 1994, 1997, Das 2003, Whitaker & Captain 2004, Aengals et al. 2012) and global data compilations (e.g. Wallach et al. 2014, Uetz & Hosek 2015) did not identify any record from mainland India until Guptha et al. (2015) recorded a specimen (voucher BLT 076 housed at Bio-Lab of Seshachalam Hills, Tirupathi, India) in the dry deciduous forest of Chamala, Seshachalam Biosphere Reserve in Andhra Pradesh, India in November 2013. Guptha et al. (2015) further mentioned an individual previously photographed in 2000 at Rishi Valley, Andhra Pradesh, but with no voucher specimen collected. Guptha's record, assumed to be the first confirmed record of C. taprobanica in India, is noteworthy as it results in a large range extension, from northern Sri Lanka to eastern India with an Euclidean distance of over 400 km, as well as a change of status, i.e., species not endemic to Sri Lanka. However, at least three little-known previous records of this species from India evaded most literature and were overlooked by the researchers including ourselves.
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Distribuição Animal , Colubridae/anatomia & histologia , Animais , Colubridae/classificação , Índia , MasculinoRESUMO
Animals almost always use habitats non-randomly, but the costs and benefits of using specific habitat types remain unknown for many types of organisms. In a large lake in northwestern Australia (Lake Argyle), most hatchling (<12-month-old) freshwater crocodiles (Crocodylus johnstoni) are found in floating vegetation mats or grassy banks rather than the more widely available open banks. Mean body sizes of young crocodiles did not differ among the three habitat types. We tested four potential explanations for non-random habitat selection: proximity to nesting sites, thermal conditions, food availability, and exposure to predation. The three alternative habitat types did not differ in proximity to nesting sites, or in thermal conditions. Habitats with higher food availability harboured more hatchlings, and feeding rates (obtained by stomach-flushing of recently-captured crocodiles) were highest in such areas. Predation risk may also differ among habitats: we were twice as likely to capture a crocodile after seeing it in open-bank sites than in the other two habitat types. Thus, habitat selection of hatchling crocodiles in this system may be driven both by prey availability and by predation risk.