Integrated monitoring and modeling to disentangle the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of urbanized streams under drought stress.

We have a poor understanding of how urban drainage and other engineered components interact with more natural hydrological processes in green and blue spaces to generate stream flow. This limits the scientific evidence base for predicting and mitigating the effects of future development of the built environment and climate change on urban water resources and their ecosystem services. Here, we synthesize > 20 years of environmental monitoring data to better understand the hydrological function of the 109-km2 Wuhle catchment, an important tributary of the river Spree in Berlin, Germany. More than half (56%) of the catchment is urbanized, leading to substantial flow path alterations. Young water from storm runoff and rapid subsurface flow provided around 20% of stream flow. However, most of it was generated by older groundwater (several years old), mainly recharged through the rural headwaters and non-urban green spaces. Recent drought years since 2018 showed that this base flow component has reduced in response to decreased recharge, causing deterioration in water quality and sections of the stream network to dry out. Attempts to integrate the understanding of engineered and natural processes in a traditional rainfall-runoff model were only partly successful due to uncertainties over the catchment area, effects of sustainable urban drainage, adjacent groundwater pumping, and limited conceptualization of groundwater storage dynamics. The study highlights the need for more extensive and coordinated monitoring and data collection in complex urban catchments and the use of these data in more advanced models of urban hydrology to enhance management.

Quantifying heterogeneity in ecohydrological partitioning in urban green spaces through the integration of empirical and modelling approaches.

Urban green spaces (UGS) can help mitigate hydrological impacts of urbanisation and climate change through precipitation infiltration, evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge. However, there is a need to understand how precipitation is partitioned by contrasting vegetation types in order to target UGS management for specific ecosystem services. We monitored, over one growing season, hydrometeorology, soil moisture, sapflux and isotopic variability of soil water under contrasting vegetation (evergreen shrub, evergreen conifer, grassland, larger and smaller deciduous trees), focussed around a 150-m transect of UGS in northern Scotland. We further used the data to develop a one-dimensional model, calibrated to soil moisture observations (KGE's generally > 0.65), to estimate evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge. Our results evidenced clear inter-site differences, with grassland soils experiencing rapid drying at the start of summer, resulting in more fractionated soil water isotopes. Contrastingly, the larger deciduous site saw gradual drying, whilst deeper sandy upslope soils beneath the evergreen shrub drained rapidly. Soils beneath the denser canopied evergreen conifer were overall least responsive to precipitation. Modelled ecohydrological fluxes showed similar diversity, with median evapotranspiration estimates increasing in the order grassland (193 mm) < evergreen shrub (214 mm) < larger deciduous tree (224 mm) < evergreen conifer tree (265 mm). The evergreen shrub had similar estimated median transpiration totals as the larger deciduous tree (155 mm and 128 mm, respectively), though timing of water uptake was different. Median groundwater recharge was greatest beneath grassland (232 mm) and lowest beneath the evergreen conifer (128 mm). The study showed how integrating observational data and simple modelling can quantify heterogeneities in ecohydrological partitioning and help guide UGS management.

An agent-based model that simulates the spatio-temporal dynamics of sources and transfer mechanisms contributing faecal indicator organisms to streams. Part 2: Application to a small agricultural catchment.

The new Model for the Agent-based simulation of Faecal Indicator Organisms (MAFIO) is applied to a small (0.42 km2) Scottish agricultural catchment to simulate the dynamics of E. coli arising from sheep and cattle farming, in order to provide a proof-of-concept. The hydrological environment for MAFIO was simulated by the "best" ensemble run of the tracer-aided ecohydrological model EcH2O-iso, obtained through multi-criteria calibration to stream discharge (MAE: 1.37 L s-1) and spatially-distributed stable isotope data (MAE: 1.14-3.02‰) for the period April-December 2017. MAFIO was then applied for the period June-August for which twice-weekly E. coli loads were quantified at up to three sites along the stream. Performance in simulating these data suggested the model has skill in capturing the transfer of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) from livestock to streams via the processes of direct deposition, transport in overland flow and seepage from areas of degraded soil. Furthermore, its agent-based structure allowed source areas, transfer mechanisms and host animals contributing FIOs to the stream to be quantified. Such information is likely to have substantial value in the context of designing and spatially-targeting mitigation measures against impaired microbial water quality. This study also revealed, however, that avenues exist for improving process conceptualisation in MAFIO (e.g. to include FIO contributions from wildlife) and highlighted the need to quantitatively assess how uncertainty in the spatial extent of surface flow paths in the simulated hydrological environment may affect FIO simulations. Despite the consequent status of MAFIO as a research-level model, its encouraging performance in this proof-of-concept study suggests the model has significant potential for eventual incorporation into decision support frameworks.

An agent-based model that simulates the spatio-temporal dynamics of sources and transfer mechanisms contributing faecal indicator organisms to streams. Part 1: Background and model description.

A new Model for the Agent-based simulation of Faecal Indicator Organisms (MAFIO) is developed that attempts to overcome limitations in existing faecal indicator organism (FIO) models arising from coarse spatial discretisations and poorly-constrained hydrological processes. MAFIO is a spatially-distributed, process-based model presently designed to simulate the fate and transport of agents representing FIOs shed by livestock at the sub-field scale in small (<10 km2) agricultural catchments. Specifically, FIO loading, die-off, detachment, surface routing, seepage and channel routing are modelled on a regular spatial grid. Central to MAFIO is that hydrological transfer mechanisms are simulated based on a hydrological environment generated by an external model for which it is possible to robustly determine the accuracy of simulated catchment hydrological functioning. The spatially-distributed, tracer-aided ecohydrological model EcH2O-iso is highlighted as a possible hydrological environment generator. The present paper provides a rationale for and description of MAFIO, whilst a companion paper applies the model in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland to provide a proof-of-concept.

These are not the trends you are looking for: poorly calibrated single-pass electrofishing data can bias estimates of trends in fish abundance.

There is increasing interest in the potential of single-pass and timed electrofishing to assess status and trends in fish populations. However, where capture probability varies over time, there is a risk that uncalibrated electrofishing data could fail to detect, or provide biased estimates of trends. This study analysed a long-term electrofishing dataset collected over 50 years in an intensively studied catchment where egg deposition and emigrant production declined by c. 82% and 35% over the same time. The electrofishing data were used to illustrate the effects of changing capture probability on estimated trends in juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar abundance. Temporal variability in capture probability was modelled. Trends in abundance were then estimated from uncalibrated single-pass electrofishing count data and compared with estimates from data calibrated for capture probability. The calibrated data revealed significant declines in S. salar fry (age 0) and parr (age ≥ 1) abundance. However, the trend estimates from the uncalibrated data were positively biased and not significant. Exploration of alternative (realistic) scenarios with different trends in true abundance and capture probability suggests that uncalibrated electrofishing data can provide very misleading estimates of trends. The problem is exacerbated in data where capture probability is low. It is recommended that single-pass and timed electrofishing methods should not be used to assess trends in fish populations without regular (annual) calibration.

How Hydrologic Connectivity Regulates Water Quality in River Corridors.

Downstream flow in rivers is repeatedly delayed by hydrologic exchange with off-channel storage zones where biogeochemical processing occurs. We present a dimensionless metric that quantifies river connectivity as the balance between downstream flow and the exchange of water with the bed, banks, and floodplains. The degree of connectivity directly influences downstream water quality - too little connectivity limits the amount of river water exchanged and leads to biogeochemically inactive water storage, while too much connectivity limits the contact time with sediments for reactions to proceed. Using a metric of reaction significance based on river connectivity, we provide evidence that intermediate levels of connectivity, rather than the highest or lowest levels, are the most efficient in removing nitrogen from Northeastern United States' rivers. Intermediate connectivity balances the frequency, residence time, and contact volume with reactive sediments, which can maximize the reactive processing of dissolved contaminants and the protection of downstream water quality. Our simulations suggest denitrification dominantly occurs in riverbed hyporheic zones of streams and small rivers, whereas vertical turbulent mixing in contact with sediments dominates in mid-size to large rivers. The metrics of connectivity and reaction significance presented here can facilitate scientifically based prioritizations of river management strategies to protect the values and functions of river corridors.

No influence of CO2 on stable isotope analyses of soil waters with off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (OA-ICOS).

RATIONALE: It was recently shown that the presence of CO2 affects the stable isotope (δ2 H and δ18 O values) analysis of water vapor via Wavelength-Scanned Cavity Ring-Down Spectroscopy. Here, we test how much CO2 is emitted from soil samples and if the CO2 in the headspace influences the isotope analysis with the direct equilibration method by Off-Axis Integrated Cavity Output Spectroscopy (OA-ICOS). METHODS: The headspace above different amounts of sparkling water was sampled, and its stable isotopic composition (δ2 H and δ18 O values) and CO2 concentration were measured by direct equilibration and by gas chromatography, respectively. In addition, the headspace above soil samples was analyzed in the same way. Furthermore, the gravimetric water content and the loss on ignition were measured for the soil samples. RESULTS: The experiment with the sparkling water showed that CO2 does not influence the stable isotope analysis by OA-ICOS. CO2 was emitted from the soil samples and correlated with the isotopic fractionation signal, but no causal relationship between the two was determined. Instead, the fractionation signal in pore water isotopes can be explained by soil evaporation and the CO2 can be related to soil moisture and organic matter which both enhance microbial activity. CONCLUSIONS: We found, despite the high CO2 emissions from soil samples, no need for a post-correction of the pore water stable isotope analysis results, since there is no relation between CO2 concentrations and the stable isotope results of vapor samples obtained with OA-ICOS. © 2016 The Authors. Rapid Communications in Mass Spectrometry Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling the isotopic evolution of snowpack and snowmelt: Testing a spatially distributed parsimonious approach.

Use of stable water isotopes has become increasingly popular in quantifying water flow paths and travel times in hydrological systems using tracer-aided modeling. In snow-influenced catchments, snowmelt produces a traceable isotopic signal, which differs from original snowfall isotopic composition because of isotopic fractionation in the snowpack. These fractionation processes in snow are relatively well understood, but representing their spatiotemporal variability in tracer-aided studies remains a challenge. We present a novel, parsimonious modeling method to account for the snowpack isotope fractionation and estimate isotope ratios in snowmelt water in a fully spatially distributed manner. Our model introduces two calibration parameters that alone account for the isotopic fractionation caused by sublimation from interception and ground snow storage, and snowmelt fractionation progressively enriching the snowmelt runoff. The isotope routines are linked to a generic process-based snow interception-accumulation-melt model facilitating simulation of spatially distributed snowmelt runoff. We use a synthetic modeling experiment to demonstrate the functionality of the model algorithms in different landscape locations and under different canopy characteristics. We also provide a proof-of-concept model test and successfully reproduce isotopic ratios in snowmelt runoff sampled with snowmelt lysimeters in two long-term experimental catchment with contrasting winter conditions. To our knowledge, the method is the first such tool to allow estimation of the spatially distributed nature of isotopic fractionation in snowpacks and the resulting isotope ratios in snowmelt runoff. The method can thus provide a useful tool for tracer-aided modeling to better understand the integrated nature of flow, mixing, and transport processes in snow-influenced catchments.

Water sources and mixing in riparian wetlands revealed by tracers and geospatial analysis.

Mixing of waters within riparian zones has been identified as an important influence on runoff generation and water quality. Improved understanding of the controls on the spatial and temporal variability of water sources and how they mix in riparian zones is therefore of both fundamental and applied interest. In this study, we have combined topographic indices derived from a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with repeated spatially high-resolution synoptic sampling of multiple tracers to investigate such dynamics of source water mixing. We use geostatistics to estimate concentrations of three different tracers (deuterium, alkalinity, and dissolved organic carbon) across an extended riparian zone in a headwater catchment in NE Scotland, to identify spatial and temporal influences on mixing of source waters. The various biogeochemical tracers and stable isotopes helped constrain the sources of runoff and their temporal dynamics. Results show that spatial variability in all three tracers was evident in all sampling campaigns, but more pronounced in warmer dryer periods. The extent of mixing areas within the riparian area reflected strong hydroclimatic controls and showed large degrees of expansion and contraction that was not strongly related to topographic indices. The integrated approach of using multiple tracers, geospatial statistics, and topographic analysis allowed us to classify three main riparian source areas and mixing zones. This study underlines the importance of the riparian zones for mixing soil water and groundwater and introduces a novel approach how this mixing can be quantified and the effect on the downstream chemistry be assessed.

Application of a linear regression model to assess the influence of urbanised areas and grazing pastures on the microbiological quality of rural streams.

Faecal coliform (FC) bacteria were used as a proxy of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) to assess the microbiological pollution risk for eight mesoscale catchments with increasing lowland influence across north-east Scotland. This study sought to assess the impact of urban areas on microbial contaminant fluxes. Fluxes were lowest in upland catchments where populations are relatively low. By contrast, lowland catchments with larger settlements and a greater number of grazing populations have more elevated FC concentrations throughout the year. Peak FC counts occurred during the summer months (April-September) when biological activity is at its highest. Lowland catchments experience high FC concentrations throughout the year whereas upland catchments exhibit more seasonal variations with elevated summer conditions and reduced winter concentrations. A simple linear regression model based on catchment characteristics provided scope to predict FC fluxes. Percentage of improved grazing pasture and human population explained 90 and 62 % of the variation in mean annual FC concentrations. This approach provides scope for an initial screening tool to predict the impact of urban space and agricultural practice on FC concentrations at the catchment scale and can aid in pragmatic planning and water quality improvement decisions. However, greater understanding of the short-term dynamics is still required which would benefit from higher resolution sampling than the approach undertaken here.

Environmental DNA, hydrochemistry and stable water isotopes as integrative tracers of urban ecohydrology.

Urbanization and the persistent environmental changes present a major challenge for urban freshwaters and availability of water for humans and wildlife. In order to increase understanding of urban ecohydrology, we investigated the variability of planktonic bacteria and benthic diatoms - as two key biological indicators - coupled with insights from hydrochemistry and stable water isotopes across four urban streams characterized by different dominant water sources in Berlin, the German capital, over a period of one year (2021-2022). DNA metabarcoding results show that substantial spatio-temporal variability exists across urban streams in terms of microbial diversity and richness, with clear links to abiotic factors and nutrient concentrations. Bacterial communities showed clear distinction between effluent-impacted and non-effluent impacted streams as well as clear seasonal turnover. In-stream benthic diatom assemblages also showed robust seasonal variation as well as high species diversity. Our multiple-tracer approach is relevant for emerging questions regarding the increased use of treated effluent to supplement declining baseflows, the assessment of stream restoration projects and the impact of storm drainage and surface pollution on aquatic ecosystem health. eDNA analysis allows analysis of spatial and temporal patterns not feasibly studied with traditional analyses of macroinvertebrates. This can ultimately be leveraged for future water resource management and restoration planning and monitoring of urban freshwater systems across metropolitan areas.

Assessing land use influences on isotopic variability and stream water ages in urbanising rural catchments.

Stable water isotopes are invaluable in helping understand catchment functioning and are widely used in experimental catchments, with higher frequency data becoming increasingly common. Such datasets incur substantial logistical costs, reducing their feasibility for use by decision makers needing to understand multi-catchment, landscape-scale functioning over a relatively short period to assess the impact of proposed land use change. Instead, reconnaissance style surveys (high spatial resolution across the landscape at a lower temporal frequency, over a relatively short period) offer an alternative, complementary approach. To test if such sampling could identify heterogeneities in hydrological functioning, and associated landscape controls, we sampled 27 stream sites fortnightly for one year within a peri-urban landscape undergoing land use change. Visual examination of raw data and application of mean transit time and young water fraction models indicated urbanisation, agriculture and responsive soils caused more rapid cycling of precipitation to stream water, whereas mature forestry provided attenuation. We were also able to identify contiguous catchments which functioned fundamentally differently, meaning their response to land use alteration would also be different. This study demonstrated how stable water isotopes can be a valuable, low-cost addition to tools available for environmental decision makers by providing local, process-based information.

Tracer-aided identification of hydrological and biogeochemical controls on in-stream water quality in a riparian wetland.

In-stream water quality reflects the integrated results of hydrological mixing of different water sources and associated biogeochemical transformations. However, quantifying the relative importance of these controls is often challenging, particularly in riparian wetlands due to complex process interactions and marked spatio-temporal heterogeneity in environmental gradients. Here, we established a two-step method to differentiate the dominance of hydrological and biogeochemical controls on water quality in a riparian peatland in northern Germany. First, an isotope-based mixing model was developed for distributed modelling of in-stream water balance over a two-year period. The simulation showed the predominance of groundwater inflows for most of the time period, while lateral inflows and channel leakage became more influential in mid-summer, as stream-groundwater connectivity weakened due to declining groundwater levels. A moderate downstream shift from groundwater to lateral inflow was also observed due to the changing channel network geometries and inflow from field drains. The mixing model was then further applied to predict the in-stream concentrations of nutrients, major ions and trace elements. The predicted concentrations were assumed to be those resulting from hydrological mixing only, while influence of biogeochemical controls were reflected by the prediction deviation from observation. Accordingly, 15 water quality parameters were grouped based on their simulation performances into hydrologically-controlled (Cl-, Mg, Na, K, and Si), biogeochemically-controlled (DOC, SO42-, Mn, and Zn), or controlled-by-both (SRP, NO3-N, Ca, Fe, Al, and Cu). The mixing modelling not only reproduced the spatiotemporal in-stream water balance with finer process conceptualisation, but also provided a generic method to quantitatively disentangle the relative strength of hydrological and biogeochemical controls. Such a method can be employed as a robust learning tool before extending a hydrological model for water quality simulation, as when, where and how strong biogeochemical controls are exerted provides a strong indicator on which dominant processes need to be conceptualised.

Climate and landscape controls on spatio-temporal patterns of stream water stable isotopes in a large glacierized mountain basin on the Tibetan Plateau.

The spatio-temporal variations of stream water stable isotopes are often assumed to follow atmospheric moisture transport over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, the isotopic composition of streamflow can be modified by the extensive variation in landscape properties in large glacierized mountain basins. In this study, the isotopic composition of stream water and its dominant controls in terms of spatial variation and potential water sources of rainfall, snow and glacier melt, and groundwater are analyzed based on synoptic water sampling from September 2018 to August 2019 over the Lhasa River basin (LRB) in the Southern TP. Results showed that: (1) δ18O variation in stream water is linearly proportional to longitude and latitude in the north. This spatial pattern is primarily controlled by cold mountainous environments, where stream water δ18O is more depleted and d-excess is higher towards the northwest and higher elevation in glacier-fed streams. Glacial melt could contribute considerably to streamflow generation, especially in the late monsoon season. (2) In the south, stream water δ18O does not simply follow depleted δ18O in precipitation along the strengthened Indian monsoon moisture gradient, but is enriched by strengthened local moisture recycling and increased groundwater contributions. The rainfall recharge is highly regulated and mixes with storage before it reaches the mainstem of the river. (3) The seasonal variations of stream water δ18O and d-excess are distinct, resulting from different contribution sources and catchment controls. In the pre-monsoon season, the strongest local moisture recycling obscures any simple stream water isotope lapse with elevation. These identified source areas and seasonal variations in the isotopic composition in stream water of LRB help us understand diverse water sources and flow paths to streams in this complex environment, which is a prerequisite for projecting potential future change.

Riparian wetland rehabilitation and beaver re-colonization impacts on hydrological processes and water quality in a lowland agricultural catchment.

Quantifying the catchment water balance and the characterization of its water quality changes are effective tools for establishing the response of catchments to shifting land management practices. Here we assess long-term hydrological partitioning and stream water chemistry over a 30-year period in a rural mixed land use catchment in northern Germany undergoing riparian wetlands and widespread re-colonization by beavers (Castor fiber) along the river network. We used long-term spatially distributed stream discharge, groundwater levels and surface water quality data with a simple monthly water balance model, changes in the variability in discharge measurements, and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal changes in stream water quality to assess long-term changes. Water balance estimates indicated high proportions of evapotranspiration loss (~90% of total precipitation) and relatively low groundwater recharge (<5% of total precipitation) prior to riparian rehabilitation in 2000. Increasing groundwater levels from 2000 to 2017 and the relatively linear nature of the catchment storage - discharge relationship, indicate a gradual increase in groundwater recharge (buts still <10% of total precipitation). Wetland rehabilitation, greatly enhanced by increasing beaver populations, resulted in longer water transit times in the stream network, less linear storage-discharge relationship and a loss of daily stream variability, increased DOC concentrations, isotopic evaporative enrichment downstream, and moderated stream temperatures. There was limited long-term water quality improvements from wetland rehabilitation on either nitrate or total phosphorus concentrations, with unchanged seasonal summer and winter peak concentrations for phosphorus and nitrate, respectively. This likely reflects the long-term legacy of fertilizer use on nutrient reservoirs in the catchment's soils, aquifers, and stream network. These long-term changes in hydrology and stream chemistry resulting from riparian rehabilitation and changes in agricultural management practices provide invaluable insights into catchment functioning and an evidence base for future planning in relation to long-term climatic changes.

Coupled hydrological and biogeochemical modelling of nitrogen transport in the karst critical zone.

Transport of nitrogen (N) in karst areas is more complex than in non-karst areas due to marked heterogeneity of hydrodynamic behaviour in the karst critical zone. Here, we present a novel, distributed, coupled hydrological-biogeochemical model that can simulate water and nitrogen transport in the critical zone of karst catchments. This new model was calibrated using integrated hydrometric, water stable isotope, and nitrogen-N concentration data at the outflow of Houzhai catchment in Guizhou province of Southwest China. Hydrological dynamics appears to control N load from the study catchment. Combining flow discharge and water stable isotopes significantly constrained model parameterisation and mitigate the equifinality effects of parameters on the simulated results. Karst geomorphology and land use have functional effects on spatiotemporal variations of hydrological processes and nitrogen transport. In the study catchment, agricultural fertilizer was the largest input source of N, accounting for 86% of the total. Plant uptake consumed about 45% of inputs, primarily in the low-lying valley bottom areas and the plain covered by relatively thick soils. Thus, a large amount of N released from soil reservoirs to the epikarst (via fractures or sinkholes) is then exported to the underground channel in the limestone area to the south. This N draining into groundwater could lead to extensive, potentially long-term contamination of the karst system. Therefore, improving the efficiency of fertilization and agricultural management in valleys/depressions is an urgent need to reduce N losses and contamination risk.

Integration of juvenile habitat quality and river connectivity models to understand and prioritise the management of barriers for Atlantic salmon populations across spatial scales.

Diadromous fish populations are strongly affected by in-stream barriers that cause river network fragmentation, constraining productivity or preventing completion of their lifecycle. Removal or reduction of barrier impacts is a restoration measure associated with unambiguous benefits. Management of barriers is therefore often prioritised above other restoration actions. Barrier management is prioritised at local and national scales depending on funding. However, barrier prioritisation is potentially sub-optimal because existing tools do not consider habitat quality. Furthermore, effects of partial barriers (those passable under certain conditions) are uncertain, depending on location and potential cumulative effects. A framework is presented for assessing effects of impassable manmade barriers (IMBs) on longitudinal river network connectivity (percentage of upstream habitat accessible from the river mouth) for Atlantic salmon across spatial scales, using Scotland as an example. The framework integrates juvenile habitat quality and network connectivity models to (1) provide information necessary for local and national prioritisation of barriers, and (2) assess potential effects of passable manmade barriers (PMBs) within a sensitivity framework. If only IMBs are considered, high levels of longitudinal connectivity are observed across most of Scotland's rivers. Barrier prioritisation is sensitive to habitat weighting: not accounting for habitat quality can lead to over- or underestimating the importance of IMBs. Prioritisation is also highly sensitive to the passability of PMBs: if passability drops to <97% (combined up- and downstream passability), the mean effect of PMBs becomes greater than IMBs at the national level. Moreover, impacts on catchment connectivity, and thus production (number of juvenile salmon produced by the river), could be severe, suggesting a better understanding of the passability of PMBs is important for future management of migration barriers. The presented framework can be transferred to other catchments, regions, or countries where necessary data are available, making it a valuable tool to the broader restoration community.

Climate-phenology-hydrology interactions in northern high latitudes: Assessing the value of remote sensing data in catchment ecohydrological studies.

We assessed the hydrological implications of climate effects on vegetation phenology in northern environments by fusion of data from remote-sensing and local catchment monitoring. Studies using satellite data have shown earlier and later dates for the start (SOS) and end of growing seasons (EOS), respectively, in the Northern Hemisphere over the last 3 decades. However, estimates of the change greatly depend on the satellite data utilized. Validation with experimental data on climate-vegetation-hydrology interactions requires long-term observations of multiple variables which are rare and usually restricted to small catchments. In this study, we used two NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) products (at ~25 & 0.5 km spatial resolutions) to infer SOS and EOS for six northern catchments, and then investigated the likely climate impacts on phenology change and consequent effects on catchment water yield, using both assimilated data (GLDAS: global land data assimilation system) and direct catchment observations. The major findings are: (1) The assimilated air temperature compared well with catchment observations (regression slopes and R2 close to 1), whereas underestimations of summer rainstorms resulted in overall underestimations of precipitation (regression slopes of 0.3-0.7, R2 ≥ 0.46). (2) The two NDVI products inferred different vegetation phenology characteristics. (3) Increased mean pre-season temperature significantly influenced the advance of SOS and delay of EOS. The precipitation influence was weaker, but delayed SOS corresponding to increased pre-season precipitation at most sites can be related to later snow melting. (4) Decreased catchment streamflow over the last 15 years could be related to the advance in SOS and extension of growing seasons. Greater streamflow reductions in the cold sites than the warm ones imply stronger climate warming impacts on vegetation and hydrology in colder northerly environments. The methods used in this study have potential for better understanding interactions between vegetation, climate and hydrology in observation-scarce regions.

Deciphering key processes controlling rainfall isotopic variability during extreme tropical cyclones.

The Mesoamerican and Caribbean (MAC) region is characterized by tropical cyclones (TCs), strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, and climate variability that bring unique hazards to socio-ecological systems. Here we report the first characterization of the isotopic evolution of a TC (Hurricane Otto, 2016) in the MAC region. We use long-term daily rainfall isotopes from Costa Rica and event-based sampling of Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017), to underpin the dynamical drivers of TC isotope ratios. During Hurricane Otto, rainfall exhibited a large isotopic range, comparable to the annual isotopic cycle. As Hurricane Otto organized into a Category 3, rapid isotopic depletion coupled with a decrease in d-excess indicates efficient isotopic fractionation within ~200 km SW of the warm core. Our results shed light on key processes governing rainfall isotope ratios in the MAC region during continental and maritime TC tracks, with applications to the interpretation of paleo-hydroclimate across the tropics.

Using spatial-stream-network models and long-term data to understand and predict dynamics of faecal contamination in a mixed land-use catchment.

An 11year dataset of concentrations of E. coli at 10 spatially-distributed sites in a mixed land-use catchment in NE Scotland (52km2) revealed that concentrations were not clearly associated with flow or season. The lack of a clear flow-concentration relationship may have been due to greater water fluxes from less-contaminated headwaters during high flows diluting downstream concentrations, the importance of persistent point sources of E. coli both anthropogenic and agricultural, and possibly the temporal resolution of the dataset. Point sources and year-round grazing of livestock probably obscured clear seasonality in concentrations. Multiple linear regression models identified potential for contamination by anthropogenic point sources as a significant predictor of long-term spatial patterns of low, average and high concentrations of E. coli. Neither arable nor pasture land was significant, even when accounting for hydrological connectivity with a topographic-index method. However, this may have reflected coarse-scale land-cover data inadequately representing "point sources" of agricultural contamination (e.g. direct defecation of livestock into the stream) and temporal changes in availability of E. coli from diffuse sources. Spatial-stream-network models (SSNMs) were applied in a novel context, and had value in making more robust catchment-scale predictions of concentrations of E. coli with estimates of uncertainty, and in enabling identification of potential "hot spots" of faecal contamination. Successfully managing faecal contamination of surface waters is vital for safeguarding public health. Our finding that concentrations of E. coli could not clearly be associated with flow or season may suggest that management strategies should not necessarily target only high flow events or summer when faecal contamination risk is often assumed to be greatest. Furthermore, we identified SSNMs as valuable tools for identifying possible "hot spots" of contamination which could be targeted for management, and for highlighting areas where additional monitoring could help better constrain predictions relating to faecal contamination.