Trends of multimorbidity in 15 European countries: a population-based study in community-dwelling adults aged 50 and over.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this work was to analyse the prevalence trends of multimorbidity among European community-dwelling adults. METHODS: A temporal series study based on waves 1, 2, 4, 5, 6 and 7 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) was conducted, and community-dwelling participants aged 50+ (n = 274,614) from 15 European countries were selected for the period 2004-2017. Prevalence, adjusted by age, Average Annual Percentage Change (APC) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were all calculated. Trend analyses were realised by period, age groups and groups of diseases. RESULTS: The results showed a large variability in the prevalence of multimorbidity in adults aged 50 and over among European countries. Increase in the prevalence of multimorbidity in the countries of central Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Germany and Switzerland) and Spain in both sexes, and in the Netherlands among men. Stability was observed in northern and eastern European countries. Musculoskeletal and neurodegenerative groups showed more significant changes in the trend analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This information can be useful for policy makers when planning health promotion and prevention policies addressing modifiable risk factors in health.

Prevalence of urinary incontinence and associated factors in nursing home residents.

AIMS: To determine the prevalence of urinary incontinence (UI) and associated factors in the institutionalized elderly. METHODS: A cross-sectional study is presented herein, conducted between October and December 2013, in 10 nursing homes in the city of Natal (Northeast Brazil). Individuals over the age of 60, who reside in institutions, were included. Hospitalized individuals and those at end of life were excluded. Data collection included sociodemographic information, UI characterization, as well as variables related to the institution itself and to health conditions (comorbidities, medication, pelvic floor surgery, Barthel Index for functional capacity, and Pfeiffer test for cognitive status). UI was verified through the Minimum Data Set (MDS) version 3.0, which was also used to assess urinary devices and UI toileting programs. The Chi-square test (or Fisher's exact test), the linear Chi-square test, and logistic regression were utilized to model associations. RESULTS: The final sample consisted of 321 elderly, mostly females, with a mean age of 81.5 years. The prevalence of UI was 58.88% (CI 95%: 53.42-64.13) and the final model revealed a statistically significant association between UI and white race, physical inactivity, stroke, mobility impairment, and cognitive decline. The most frequent UI type was functional UI and toileting programs (prompted voiding) were only applied to approximately 8% of residents. CONCLUSIONS: It is concluded that UI is a health issue that affects more than half of the institutionalized elderly, and is associated with white race, physical inactivity, stroke, and other geriatric syndromes such as immobility and cognitive disability.

Colorectal cancer mortality in Brazil: predictions until the year 2025 and cancer control implications.

BACKGROUND: Although data exist on the number of deaths by colorectal cancer in Brazil, there is no information detailed by geographic regions and age groups regarding the future impact of this disease. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to carry out predictions for colorectal cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions until the year 2025. DESIGN: This was an ecological study. SETTINGS: The study was conducted in the geographic regions of Brazil. PATIENTS: Data were obtained from the Brazilian Health Ministry and from population-based data of the Brazilian Statistics and Geography Institute. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measures were the predictions of the number of deaths and mortality rates for 2011-2025 based on the mortality incidence of colorectal cancer during 1996-2010. RESULTS: Significant increases were verified in Brazilian rates between 1996 and 2006, followed by stable rates until 2010. For men, predictions indicate increasing rates both at a national level and by geographic regions, except for the South region (where a decrease is expected). In women, increasing rates are expected for the overall country and for the North, Northeast, and Central West regions, whereas decreasing rates are expected for the Southeast and South regions. At a national level, the predicted increase in deaths by colorectal cancer is 75.8% in men and 67.5% in women: 55.8% and 60.6% can be attributed to population changes and 20.0% and 7.0% because of risk increases. LIMITATIONS: It is highlighted that the observational period for projections is short, at 15 years. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing mortality rates for colorectal cancer are expected in Brazil until the year 2025, mostly because of the aging process of the population. The results presented herein show that the disease burden will be higher in the North, Northeast, and Central West regions of the country, which also correspond with the least developed regions.

Longitudinal Relationship Between Handgrip Strength and Cognitive Function in a European Multicentric Population Older Than 50 Years.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze the bidirectional association between handgrip strength (HGS) and cognitive performance in different cognitive functions in a European population and to evaluate the predictive validity of HGS for the risk of future cognitive impairment in aging individuals. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study conducted using data on individuals over 50 years of age from the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). HGS measures and scores in numeracy, recall, and verbal fluency were repeated and analyzed biannually for 4 years and were used in generalized estimating equations to test the bidirectional association, categorized by sex. RESULTS: Of the 8236 individuals included, 55.73% were women with a mean age of 67.55 (standard deviation [SD] = 8.4) years and 44.27% were men with a mean age of 68.42 (SD = 7.7) years. HGS predicted cognitive decline in both sexes, except for numeracy in men, even after adjustments. The strongest association with HGS in women was in verbal fluency (ß = .094; 95% CI = 0.039 to 0.151), whereas the strongest association with HGS in men was in delayed verbal recall (ß = .095; 95% CI = 0.039 to 0.151). Conversely, the greatest cognitive predictor of HGS decline was verbal fluency in men (ß = .796; 95% CI = 0.464 to 1.128), and in women (ß = .801; 95% CI= 0.567 to 1.109). CONCLUSION: There is a significant and bidirectional association between HGS and different cognitive functions in a European multicentric population. This bidirectional association differed between sexes. IMPACT: Both men and women who presented with cognitive decline also showed early changes in their HGS measures, and vice versa, but there still were differences between the sexes. These findings reinforce that HGS may be a simple and inexpensive method to identify early signs of cognitive decline, and that studies and rehabilitation strategies should be more sex specific.

Is loneliness a predictor of the modern geriatric giants? Analysis from the survey of health, ageing, and retirement in Europe.

BACKGROUND: The modern Geriatric Giants have evolved to encompass four new syndromes, of frailty (linked to fatigue and physical inactivity), sarcopenia, anorexia of ageing, and cognitive impairment. In parallel, loneliness has been established as a risk factor for adverse mental and physical health outcomes among older adults. OBJECTIVE: To analyse loneliness as a predictor of the modern Geriatric Giants in European older adults, using a longitudinal design of nationally representative data. DESIGN: Longitudinal population-based cohort study. SUBJECTS: Data from countries that participated in waves 5 and 6 of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe project. The sizes of the subsamples analysed ranged from 17,742 for physical inactivity to 24,524 for anorexia of ageing. METHODS: Loneliness (measured from wave 5) was the independent variable of interest. The dependent variables were incidence of fatigue, physical inactivity, sarcopenia, anorexia of ageing, and cognitive impairment from wave 5 (baseline) to wave 6. Poisson regression models were used for multivariable analysis, obtaining Relative Risk (RR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: The prevalence of loneliness ranged from 9.2%-12.4% at wave 5. The 2-year incidence of fatigue was 16 % (95 % CI: 15.5-16.5), physical inactivity 9.8 % (95 % CI: 9.4-10.3), sarcopenia 5.6 % (95 % CI: 5.3-5.9), anorexia of aging 5.4 % (95 % CI: 5.1-5.7), and cognitive impairment 10.3 % (95 % CI: 9.9-10.8). The multivariable analysis showed that loneliness was a predictive factor for fatigue (30 %, CI: 17-45 % higher risk), physical inactivity (24 %, CI: 7-43 % higher risk) and cognitive impairment (26 %, CI: 9-46 % higher risk), adjusted by age, sex, number of chronic diseases, education level, region and depression. CONCLUSIONS: Loneliness is an independent risk factor for fatigue, physical inactivity, and cognitive impairment in older adults. The incidence of anorexia of ageing and sarcopenia was not associated with loneliness over the 2-year observation period.

Multimorbidity and Its Impact on Workers: A Review of Longitudinal Studies.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the impact of multimorbidity on work through a literature review of longitudinal studies. METHODS: A systematic review was carried out in the databases Lilacs, SciELO, PAHO, PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane. There were no restrictions regarding the year of publication or language to maximize the identification of relevant literature. The quality of studies was assessed by the protocol STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE). RESULTS: An initial database search identified 7522 registries, and at the end of the analysis, 7 manuscripts were included in the review. Several studies have demonstrated direct and indirect impacts of multimorbidity on the health of workers. For this, the number of missed days due to health-related issues was evaluated, as well as the reduction in work productivity of the unhealthy worker, vulnerability of the worker with multimorbidity regarding higher indices of dismissal and recruitment difficulties, and incidence of early retirement and/or receipt of benefits due to disabilities. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity has a negative impact on work, with damages to quality of life and work productivity, worsening the absenteeism/presenteeism indices, enhancing the chances of temporary or permanent leaves, and lowering employability and admission of individuals with multimorbidity.

Epidemiology of multiple myeloma in 17 Latin American countries: an update.

The objective of this study was to describe incidence, mortality rates, and trends for multiple myeloma (MM) in Latin America (LA), contributing to better knowledge on the epidemiology of MM in this continent. Incidence data were extracted from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), for the period 1990-2007. Mortality data were obtained for 17 countries from the World Health Organization, for the period 1995-2013. Annual average percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated for incidence and mortality. The average incidence rate of MM was higher in Cali (Colombia). For the age-group over 60 years old, rates were 14.2 and 12.8 per 100,000 inhabitants for men and women, respectively. Increasing incidence trends were verified for Cali (Colombia). Mortality rates were higher among men; most countries presented increasing trends, and the highest increments were observed in Guatemala (12.5% [95% CI: 10.6; 14.5] in men; 8.8% [95% CI: 7.8; 9.8] in women), Ecuador (5.5% [95% CI: 5.0; 6.0] in men; 3.7 [95% CI: 3.1; 4.3] in women), Paraguay (2.9% [95% CI: 2.3; 3.5] in men; 3.2% [95% CI: 2.1; 4.3] in women), and Brazil (1.4% [95% CI: 1.3; 1.5] in men; 0.9% [95% CI: 0.8; 1.0] in women). Multiple myeloma presented heterogeneous incidence patterns in Cali (Colombia), Quito (Ecuador), and Costa Rica. Increasing mortality trends were verified for most Latin American countries and could be related to limited access to diagnosis and new therapies.

Trends and predictions for gastric cancer mortality in Brazil.

AIM: To analyze the effect of age-period and birth cohort on gastric cancer mortality, in Brazil and across its five geographic regions, by sex, in the population over 20 years of age, as well as make projections for the period 2010-2029. METHODS: An ecological study is presented herein, which distributed gastric cancer-related deaths in Brazil and its geographic regions. The effects of age-period and birth cohort were calculated by the Poisson regression model and projections were made with the age-period-cohort model in the statistical program R. RESULTS: Progressive reduction of mortality rates was observed in the 1980's, and then higher and lower mortality rates were verified in the 2000's, for both sexes, in Brazil and for the South, Southeast and Midwest regions. A progressive decrease in mortality rates was observed for the Northeast (both sexes) and North (men only) regions within the period 1995-1999, followed by rising rates. CONCLUSION: Regional differences were demonstrated in the mortality rates for gastric cancer in Brazil, and the least developed regions of the country will present increases in projected mortality rates.

Prevalence of fecal incontinence (FI) and associated factors in institutionalized older adults.

The objective of this work is to determine the prevalence of FI and associated factors in institutionalized elderly. A cross-sectional study is presented herein, conducted between October and December 2013, in 10 nursing homes (NHs) of the city of Natal (Northeast Brazil). Individuals over the age of 60 were included in the study, while those hospitalized or in terminal phase were excluded. Data collection included sociodemographic information, FI characterization, as well as variables related to the institution itself and to health conditions (comorbidities, medication, pelvic floor surgery, Barthel Index for functional capacity and Pfeiffer test for cognitive status). FI was verified through the Minimum Data Set (MDS) 3.0, which was also used to assess toileting programs. The Chi-square test and the linear Chi-square test were performed for bivariate analysis, as well as logistic regression for multivariate analysis. The final sample consisted of 321 elderly, mostly females, with mean age of 81.5 years. The prevalence of FI was 42.68% (CI 95%, 37.39-48.15). Most residents presenting FI were always incontinent (83.9%) and the most frequent incontinence type was total FI (solid and liquid stools). Incontinence control measures were applied only to 9.7% of the residents. The final model revealed a statistically significant association between FI and functional and cognitive impairments. It is concluded that FI is a health issue that affects almost half of the institutionalized elderly, and is associated with functional and cognitive disability.

Cancer mortality in Brazil: Temporal Trends and Predictions for the Year 2030.

Cancer is currently in the spotlight due to their heavy responsibility as main cause of death in both developed and developing countries. Analysis of the epidemiological situation is required as a support tool for the planning of public health measures for the most vulnerable groups. We analyzed cancer mortality trends in Brazil and geographic regions in the period 1996 to 2010 and calculate mortality predictions for the period 2011 to 2030.This is an epidemiological, demographic-based study that utilized information from the Mortality Information System on all deaths due to cancer in Brazil. Mortality trends were analyzed by the Joinpoint regression, and Nordpred was utilized for the calculation of predictions.Stability was verified for the female (annual percentage change [APC] = 0.4%) and male (APC = 0.5%) sexes. The North and Northeast regions present significant increasing trends for mortality in both sexes. Until 2030, female mortality trends will not present considerable variations, but there will be a decrease in mortality trends for the male sex. There will be increases in mortality rates until 2030 for the North and Northeast regions, whereas reductions will be verified for the remaining geographic regions. This variation will be explained by the demographic structure of regions until 2030.There are pronounced regional and sex differences in cancer mortality in Brazil, and these discrepancies will continue to increase until the year 2030, when the Northeast region will present the highest cancer mortality rates in Brazil.

Future burden of prostate cancer mortality in Brazil: a population-based study.

Prostate cancer mortality projections at the nationwide and regional levels to the year 2025 are carried out in this ecological study that is based on an analysis of Brazilian trends between 1996 and 2010. The predictions were made for the period 2011-2025 utilizing the Nordpred program based on the period of 1996-2010, using the age-period-cohort model. A significant increase was observed in the Brazilian rates between 1996 and 2006, followed by a non-significant decrease. The projections indicate a decrease in rates at a national level as well as for the Central, South and Southeast regions. Increases are expected for the North and Northeast regions. In conclusion, a reduction in the mortality rates for prostate cancer in Brazil is expected to the year 2025, as well as for the Central, South and Southeast regions. However, an increase in the absolute number of deaths in all regions is expected due to the anticipated aging of the population.

Prevalence of self-medication and associated factors in an elderly population: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The aging of the world populat ion together with changes in the epidemiological profile of diseases have led to increases in both the consumption of medicines and health expenses. In this context, self-medication has gained importance as a rapid treatment that bypasses bureaucracy and, in some instances, delays in obtaining medical assistance. OBJECTIVE: Verification of self-medication prevalence and associated factors in the elderly, as well as identification of the main categories of non-prescription drugs utilized. DATA SOURCES: The following databases were utilized: Cochrane, PubMed, Scopus, LILACS, SciELO, PAHO, MedCarib and WHOLIS. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies on the prevalence of self-medication in community-dwelling elderly were included. Review studies were excluded, as well as MSc dissertations, PhD theses and research with convenience sampling. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling individuals aged 60 years or over. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: A systematic review of population-based articles published up until September 1, 2014, is presented. The STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement was applied for critical assessment of the articles, and those with a minimum score of 60% were selected for inclusion in the review. RESULTS: Thirty-six articles were selected, of which 28 were included after critical reading. The prevalence of self-medication varied between 4 and 87%, and the majority of studies reported values between 20 and 60%. The mean prevalence reported in the articles was 38%, but several criteria were utilized to measure self-medication. The most commonly utilized non-prescription drugs were analgesics and antipyretics, followed by non-hormonal anti-inflammatories, cardiovascular agents, dietary complements and alternative medicine components. The variables that presented positive associations with self-medication were female sex, visits to pharmacists, depression, functional dependency, recent hospitalization, oral pain, restriction of activities and physical inactivity. The variables with negative associations were medical appointments, married status, use of health services, satisfaction with living arrangements, living in institutional settings and private health plans. LIMITATIONS: Different definitions of self-medication were employed in the identified articles, which hindered the comparison between studies and meta-analysis. Only 15 studies analysed associated factors and a minority carried out multivariate data analysis. CONCLUSION: Self-medication is frequent among the elderly, with different prevalence values found in the selected studies, probably because of heterogeneity in definitions and samples. Future studies are necessary, utilizing a standard self-medication criterion to facilitate comparison and elucidate the factors associated with this behaviour.

Mortality trends and prediction of HPV-related cancers in Brazil.

Estimation of the size of a cancer group, either through number of cases or extrapolation of past observed trends, is indispensable to the planning of effective assistance measures. The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality trends of human papillomavirus-related cancers in Brazil by sex, in the period 1996-2010, and make predictions until the year 2025. All deaths registered as being a result of cervical cancer (ICD-10 code: C53), as well as those caused by vulvar and vaginal (C51 and C52), anal (C21), penile (C60), and oropharyngeal (C02, C09, C10) cancers, were registered. Adjusted rate calculations for each year were used to study the trends through the regression program 'Joinpoint'. Predictions were made using the Nordpred program, utilizing the age-period-cohort model. When analyzing separately by location, it was observed that penile and anal cancers in men presented an increasing trend for the entire period with a statistically significant annual percentage change of 4% for anal cancer and 1.4% for penile cancer. Predictions indicate a reduction in the risk of death due to oropharyngeal cancer in men and cervical, vulvar, and vaginal cancers in women. It was observed that the increase in the number of deaths occurs mainly because of population changes (size and age structure). In terms of risk, an increase is predicted for anal and penile cancers in men and consequently an increase in mortality rates is observed for these types of cancers, unlike what is expected for human papillomavirus-related cancers in women.

Future burden of prostate cancer mortality in Brazil: a population-based study / Projeções de mortalidade por câncer de próstata no Brasil: um estudo de base populacional / Proyecciones de mortalidad por cáncer de próstata en Brasil: un estudio de base poblacional

Prostate cancer mortality projections at the nationwide and regional levels to the year 2025 are carried out in this ecological study that is based on an analysis of Brazilian trends between 1996 and 2010. The predictions were made for the period 2011-2025 utilizing the Nordpred program based on the period of 1996-2010, using the age-period-cohort model. A significant increase was observed in the Brazilian rates between 1996 and 2006, followed by a non-significant decrease. The projections indicate a decrease in rates at a national level as well as for the Central, South and Southeast regions. Increases are expected for the North and Northeast regions. In conclusion, a reduction in the mortality rates for prostate cancer in Brazil is expected to the year 2025, as well as for the Central, South and Southeast regions. However, an increase in the absolute number of deaths in all regions is expected due to the anticipated aging of the population.

Este estudo ecológico realiza projeções de mortalidade por câncer de próstata no Brasil e suas regiões até o ano 2025, com base nas tendências observadas no período de 1996 a 2010. As projeções foram realizadas para o período 2011-2025 mediante o programa Nordpred, baseado no período 1996-2010, usando o modelo idade-período-coorte. Observou-se um aumento significativo das taxas no Brasil entre 1996 e 2006, seguido de um descenso não significativo. As projeções indicam uma diminuição das taxas em nível nacional e nas regiões Centro-oeste, Sul e Sudeste, enquanto nas regiões Norte e Nordeste se espera um incremento das taxas. É esperada uma redução das taxas de mortalidade por câncer de próstata até o ano 2025 no Brasil em conjunto, assim como nas regiões Centro-oeste, e Sul e Sudeste, e um incremento nas regiões Norte e Nordeste. Contudo, prevê-se um aumento do número absoluto de mortes pela doença em todas as regiões devido ao envelhecimento populacional previsto no país.

Este estudio ecológico presenta proyecciones de mortalidad por cáncer de próstata en Brasil y sus regiones para el año 2025, en base a las tendencias observadas en el período 1996-2010. Las proyecciones se realizaron para el período 2011-2025, mediante el programa NORDPRED, con base en el período 1996-2010, utilizando el modelo edad-período-cohorte. Hubo un aumento significativo en las tasas en Brasil entre 1996 y 2006, seguido de una disminución no significativa. Las proyecciones indican una disminución de las tasas, tanto a nivel nacional, como en las regiones Centro-oeste, Sur y Sudeste, mientras que en las regiones Norte y Nordeste se espera un incremento de las tasas. Se prevé una disminución de la mortalidad por cáncer de próstata para el año 2025 en Brasil en su conjunto, así como en las regiones Centro-oeste, Sur y Sudeste, y un aumento en las regiones Norte y Nordeste. Sin embargo, se espera un aumento del número absoluto de muertes de la enfermedad en todas las regiones, debido al envejecimiento de la población previsto en el país.