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The impact of invasive species on biodiversity, food security and economy is increasingly noticeable in various regions of the globe as a consequence of climate change. Yet, there is limited research on how climate change affects the distribution of the invasive Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera:Liviidae) in Ghana. Using maxnet package to fit the Maxent model in R software, we answered the following questions; (i) what are the main drivers for D. citri distribution, (ii) what are the D. citri-specific habitat requirements and (iii) how well do the risk maps fit with what we know to be correctly based on the available evidence?. We found that temperature seasonality (Bio04), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer land cover and precipitation seasonality (Bio15), were the most important drivers of D. citri distribution. The results follow the known distribution records of the pest with potential expansion of habitat suitability in the future. Because many invasive species, including D. citri, can adapt to the changing climates, our findings can serve as a guide for surveillance, tracking and prevention of D. citri spread in Ghana.
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The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Lower, 1862) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a pest of significant economic importance in Central America and Florida (USA). This study was carried out to examine the influence of climate change on the space-time distribution of A. suspensa on temporal and spatial scales. The CLIMEX software was used to model the current distribution and for climate change. The future distribution was performed using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under the emission scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B for the years 2050, 2080, and 2100. The results indicate a low potential for global distribution of A. suspensa in all scenarios studied. However, tropical areas were identified with high climatic suitability for A. suspensa in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania until the end of the century. Projections of areas with climatic suitability for A. suspensa can provide helpful information to develop preventive strategies of phytosanitary management avoiding economic impacts with the introduction of the species.
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Tephritidae , Animais , Software , Previsões , Mudança Climática , América CentralRESUMO
The citrus blackfly (CBF), Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby, is an exotic pest native to Southeast Asia that has spread rapidly to the world's main centers of citrus production, having been recently introduced to Brazil. In this study, a maximum entropy niche model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the potential worldwide distribution of CBF under current and future climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050. These future scenarios came from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), SSP1-2.6, and SSP5-8.5. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of CBF with area under receiver operator curve (AUC) values of 0.953 and 0.930 in the initial and final models, respectively. The average temperature of the coldest quarter months, precipitation of the rainiest month, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest month were the strongest predictors of CBF distribution, with contributions of 36.7%, 14.7%, 13.2%, and 10.2%, respectively. The model based on the current time conditions predicted that suitable areas for the potential occurrence of CBF, including countries such as Brazil, China, the European Union, the USA, Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco, are located in tropical and subtropical regions. Models from SSP1-2.6 (2030 and 2050) and SSP5-8.5 (2030) predicted that suitable habitats for CBF are increasing dramatically worldwide under future climate change scenarios, particularly in areas located in the southern US, southern Europe, North Africa, South China, and part of Australia. On the other hand, the SSP5-8.5 model of 2050 indicated a great retraction of the areas suitable for CBF located in the tropical region, with an emphasis on countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, and India. In general, the CMIP6 models predicted greater risks of invasion and dissemination of CBF until 2030 and 2050 in the southern regions of the USA, European Union, and China, which are some of the world's largest orange producers. Knowledge of the current situation and future propagation paths of the pest serve as tools to improve the strategic government policies employed in CBF's regulation, commercialization, inspection, combat, and phytosanitary management.
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The Caribbean fruit fly Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a polyphagous pest causing economic losses in Central America, the Caribbean and South Florida. The parasitoid wasp Diachasmimorpha longicaudata (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is the main parasitoid of A. suspensa in biological control programs. In this study, by modeling with CLIMEX software, climatically suitable areas were projected according to historical climate data. Areas with overlapping optimal climatic suitability for the joint establishment of the pest and parasitoid were mapped, indicating large areas with host presence in North, Central, and South America, with cold stress being the main climatic factor limiting distribution for both species. Tropical regions have the most potential for invasion, with optimal suitability in many areas. Through the projected distributions, this study can target quarantine strategies in areas most susceptible to invasion and establishment of the pest in each country. In addition, classical biological control with the parasitoid in areas with climatic suitability is also recommended.
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The mango weevil, Sternochetus mangiferae (Fabricius) (Curculionidae), pest present in Brazil and is restricted to some municipalities in the Rio de Janeiro State. This curculionid attacks the mango crop exclusively and puts mango production globally at risk, especially those destined for export. Using ecological modeling tools, this study is the first to map the potential risk of S. mangiferae in Brazil. We aimed to identify the potential distribution of this pest in Brazilian states, drawing up thematic maps of regions that present suitable and unsuitable climatic conditions for the establishment of the pest using the MaxEnt ecological niche model. The average annual temperature, the annual precipitation, the average daytime temperature range, and the annual temperature range were the variables that contributed most to the selected model. The MaxEnt model predicted highly suitable areas for S. mangiferae throughout the Brazilian coast, especially on the northeast coast. The region responsible for more than 50% of mango production in Brazil, the São Francisco Valley, was classified by the model with suitability for the pest; it can impacts exportations due to the imposition of phytosanitary barriers. This information can be used in strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of this pest in new areas and monitor programs in areas with recent occurrence. In addition, the model results can be used in future research plans on S. mangiferae in worldwide modeling studies and climate change scenarios.
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BACKGROUND: The Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) is a destructive, invasive species that poses a serious threat to the citrus industry wherever it occurs. The psyllid vectors the phloem-limited bacteria 'Candidatus Liberibacter americanus' and 'Ca. L. asiaticus', causal agents of the incurable citrus greening disease or huanglongbing (HLB). It is essential to understand which regions and areas are suitable for colonization by ACP to formulate appropriate policy and preventive measures. Considering its biology and ecology, we used a machine learning algorithm based on the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) principle, to predict the potential global distribution of ACP using bioclimatic variables and elevation. RESULTS: The model predictions are consistent with the known distribution of ACP and also highlight the potential occurrence outside its current ecological range, that is, primarily in Africa, Asia and the Americas. The most important abiotic variables driving the global distribution of ACP were annual mean temperature, seasonality of temperature and annual precipitation. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the need for international collaboration in slowing the spread of invasive pests like D. citri. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Citrus , Hemípteros , Rhizobiaceae , Animais , Citrus/microbiologia , Hemípteros/microbiologia , Espécies Introduzidas , Doenças das Plantas/microbiologiaRESUMO
The impact of invasive alien pests on agriculture, food security, and biodiversity conservation has been worsened by climate change caused by the rising earth's atmospheric greenhouse gases. The African citrus triozid, Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio; Hemiptera: Triozidae), is an invasive pest of all citrus species. It vectors the phloem-limited bacterium "Candidatus Liberibacter africanus", a causal agent of citrus greening disease or African Huanglongbing (HLB). Understanding the global distribution of T. erytreae is critical for surveillance, monitoring, and eradication programs. Therefore, we combined geospatial and physiological data of T. erytreae to predict its global distribution using the CLIMEX model. The model's prediction matches T. erytreae present-day distribution and shows that parts of the Mediterranean region have moderate (0 < EI < 30) to high (EI > 30) suitability for the pest. The model predicts habitat suitability in the major citrus-producing countries, such as Mexico, Brazil, China, India, and the USA. In the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2 scenarios, the model predicts a reduction in habitat suitability from the current time to 2070. The findings show that global citrus production will continue to be threatened by T. erytreae. However, our study provides relevant information for biosecurity and risk assessment.