Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines.

Under climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phytoplankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, comparing biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors.

Filtering impacts of larval and sessile zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) in western Lake Erie.

We assessed the feeding biology of veliger larvae of the introduced zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha Pallas) in laboratory experiments using inert microspheres as food analogues. Mean clearance rate on 2.87-µm beads ranged between 247 and 420 µL veliger-1 day-1. Clearance rate was unrelated to bead concentration up to 100 beads µL-1, but was positively correlated with veliger shell length. Clearance rates of Dreissena veligers are within the range of those reported for marine bivalve veligers of similar size and for herbivorous Great Lakes microzooplankton, but are orders of magnitude lower than those of settled, conspecific adults. The impact of settled zebra mussel grazing activities on phytoplankton stocks may be up to 1162 times greater than that exerted by veliger populations in western Lake Erie. Based on 1990 size-frequency distributions and associated literature-derived clearance rates, reef-associated Dreissena populations in western Lake Erie (mean depth ∼7 m) possess a tremendous potential to filter the water column (up to 132 m3 m-2 day-1) and redirect energy from pelagic to benthic foodwebs. Preliminary analyses indicate that chlorophyll a concentration is strongly depleted (<1 µg L-1) above Dreissena beds in western Lake Erie.