Applying taper function models for black locust plantations in Greek post-mining areas.

A key process in forest management planning is the estimation of tree volume and, more specifically, merchantable volume. The ability to predict the cumulative stem volume relative to any upper stem diameter on standing trees or stands is essential for forest inventories and the management of forest resources. In the 1980s, the Hellenic Public Power Corporation (HPPC) started the rehabilitation of lignite post-mining areas in Greece by planting mainly black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia, L.). Today, these plantations occupy an area of approximately 2570 ha, but the stem volume has not yet been estimated. Therefore, we aimed to estimate the over- and under-bark stem volume using taper function models for 30 destructively sampled trees. Of the nineteen calibrated fixed-effects models, Kozak's (2004) equation performed best for both the over-bark and under-bark datasets, followed by Lee's (2003) and Muhairwe's (1999) equations. Two fixed effect models were compared with fitted coefficients from Poland and the United States confirming that the local model fits were better suited, as the foreign model coefficients caused an increase in root mean square error (RMSE) for stem diameter predictions of 13% and 218%, respectively. The addition of random effects on a single-stem basis for two coefficients of Kozak's (2004) equation improved the model fit significantly at 86% of the over-bark fixed effect RMSE and 69% for the under-bark model. Integrated taper functions were found to slightly outperform three volume equations for predictions of single stem volume over and under bark. Ultimately it was shown that these models can be used to precisely predict stem diameters and total stem volume for the population average as well as for specific trees of the black locust plantations in the study area.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Habitat Suitability of the Dominant Tree Species in Greece.

Climate change is affecting species distribution and ecosystem form and function. Forests provide a range of ecosystem services, and understanding their vulnerability to climate change is important for designing effective adaptation strategies. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) has been extensively used to derive habitat suitability maps under current conditions and project species distribution shifts under climate change. In this study, we model the current and future habitat suitability of the dominant tree species in Greece (Abies cephalonica, Abies borisii-regis, Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus nigra, Quercus ilex, Quercus pubescens, Quercus frainetto and Fagus sylvatica), based on species-specific presence data from the EU-Forest database, enhanced with data from Greece that is currently under-represented in terms of tree species occurrence points. By including these additional presence data, areas with relatively drier conditions for some of the study species were included in the SDM development, yielding a potentially lower vulnerability under climate change conditions. SDMs were developed for each taxon using climate and soil data at a resolution of ~1 km2. Model performance was assessed under current conditions and was found to adequately simulate potential distributions. Subsequently, the models were used to project the potential distribution of each species under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time periods. Under climate change scenarios, a reduction in habitat-suitable areas was predicted for most study species, with higher elevation taxa experiencing more pronounced potential habitat shrinkages. An exception was the endemic A. cephalonica and its sister species A. borisii-regis, which, although currently found at mid and high elevations, seem able to maintain their potential distribution under most climate change scenarios. Our findings suggest that climate change could significantly affect the distribution and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Greece, with important ecological, economic and social implications, and thus adequate mitigation measures should be implemented.

Effective Defense of Aleppo Pine Against the Giant Scale Marchalina hellenica Through Ecophysiological and Metabolic Changes.

Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) is widely distributed in the Mediterranean region and in other areas of the world, where it has been introduced due to its adaptive capacity to xerothermic conditions. The giant pine scale Marchalina hellenica often infests Aleppo pine, as well as other pines, in several southeastern European countries, causing pine declines. When combined with the expected intensified heat and drought events in eastern Mediterranean, the impact of this biotic parameter on the host pines may be exacerbated. The importance of understanding the defense mechanisms of Aleppo pine is emphasized by the recent invasion of the pine scale in new regions, like Australia, lacking the insect's natural enemies, where more intense negative effects on pine species may occur. To date, Aleppo pine's physiological responses to the infestation by M. hellenica are largely unknown. This study aimed at assessing the responses of Aleppo pine to the giant pine scale attack, both on an ecophysiological and a metabolic level. For this purpose, gas exchange, needle water status, and carbon and nitrogen content were measured during 1 year on healthy and infested adult trees. M etabolic profiling of Aleppo pine needles was also performed before, during, and after the high feeding activity of the insect. The maintenance of stable relative water content, δ13C signatures, and chlorophyll fluorescence in the needles of infested pines indicated that infestation did not induce drought stress to the host pines. At the peak of infestation, stomatal closure and a pronounced reduction in assimilation were observed and were associated with the accumulation of sugars in the needles, probably due to impaired phloem loading. At the end of the infestation period, tricarboxylic acids were induced and phenolic compounds were enhanced in the needles of infested pines. These metabolic responses, together with the recovery of photosynthesis after the end of M. hellenica intense feeding, indicate that in the studied region and under the current climate, Aleppo pine is resilient to the infestation by the giant pine scale. Future research should assess whether these promising defense mechanisms are also employed by other host pines, particularly in regions of the world recently invaded by the giant pine scale, as well as under more xerothermic regimes.