More losses than gains during one century of plant biodiversity change in Germany.

Long-term analyses of biodiversity data highlight a 'biodiversity conservation paradox': biological communities show substantial species turnover over the past century1,2, but changes in species richness are marginal1,3-5. Most studies, however, have focused only on the incidence of species, and have not considered changes in local abundance. Here we asked whether analysing changes in the cover of plant species could reveal previously unrecognized patterns of biodiversity change and provide insights into the underlying mechanisms. We compiled and analysed a dataset of 7,738 permanent and semi-permanent vegetation plots from Germany that were surveyed between 2 and 54 times from 1927 to 2020, in total comprising 1,794 species of vascular plants. We found that decrements in cover, averaged across all species and plots, occurred more often than increments; that the number of species that decreased in cover was higher than the number of species that increased; and that decrements were more equally distributed among losers than were gains among winners. Null model simulations confirmed that these trends do not emerge by chance, but are the consequence of species-specific negative effects of environmental changes. In the long run, these trends might result in substantial losses of species at both local and regional scales. Summarizing the changes by decade shows that the inequality in the mean change in species cover of losers and winners diverged as early as the 1960s. We conclude that changes in species cover in communities represent an important but understudied dimension of biodiversity change that should more routinely be considered in time-series analyses.

ReSurveyGermany: Vegetation-plot time-series over the past hundred years in Germany.

Vegetation-plot resurvey data are a main source of information on terrestrial biodiversity change, with records reaching back more than one century. Although more and more data from re-sampled plots have been published, there is not yet a comprehensive open-access dataset available for analysis. Here, we compiled and harmonised vegetation-plot resurvey data from Germany covering almost 100 years. We show the distribution of the plot data in space, time and across habitat types of the European Nature Information System (EUNIS). In addition, we include metadata on geographic location, plot size and vegetation structure. The data allow temporal biodiversity change to be assessed at the community scale, reaching back further into the past than most comparable data yet available. They also enable tracking changes in the incidence and distribution of individual species across Germany. In summary, the data come at a level of detail that holds promise for broadening our understanding of the mechanisms and drivers behind plant diversity change over the last century.

Summer aridity rather than management shapes fitness-related functional traits of the threatened mountain plant Arnica montana.

Semi-natural mountain grasslands are increasingly exposed to environmental stress under climate change. However, which are the environmental factors that limit plants in these grasslands? Also, is the present management effective against these changes? Fitness-related functional traits may offer a way to detect changes in performance and provide new insights into their vulnerability to climate change. We investigated changes in performance and variability of functional traits of the mountain grassland target species Arnica montana along a climate gradient in Central German low mountain ranges. This gradient represents at its lower end climate conditions that are expected at its upper end under future climate change. We measured vegetative, generative, and physiological traits to account for multiple ways of plant responses to the environment. Using mixed effects and multivariate models, we evaluated changes in trait values among individuals as well as the variability of their populations in order to assess performance under changing summer aridity and different management regimes. Fitness-related performance of most traits showed strongly positive associations with reduced summer aridity at higher elevations, while only specific leaf area and leaf dry matter content showed no association. This suggests a higher performance level at less arid montane sites and that the physiological traits are less sensitive to this climate change factor. The coefficient of variation of almost all traits declined steadily with decreasing site aridity. We suggest that this reduced variability indicates a lower environmental stress level for A. montana toward its environmental optimum at montane elevations, especially because the trait performance increased simultaneously. Surprisingly, management factors and habitat characteristics had only low influence on both trait performance and variability. In summary, summer aridity had a stronger effect to shape the trait performance and variability of A. montana under increased environmental stress than management and other habitat characteristics.