Applying mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of COVID-19-related VMMC service disruptions on new HIV infections in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems with knock on effects on diagnosis, treatment, and care. To mitigate the impact, the government of Zimbabwe enforced a strict lockdown beginning 30 March 2020 which ran intermittently until early 2021. In this period, the Ministry of Health and Childcare strategically prioritized delivery of services leading to partial and full suspension of services considered non-essential, including HIV prevention. As a result, Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) services were disrupted leading to an 80% decline in circumcisions conducted in 2020. Given the efficacy of VMMC, we quantified the potential effects of VMMC service disruption on new HIV infections in Zimbabwe. METHODS: We applied the GOALS model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on reducing new HIV infections over 30-years. GOALS is an HIV simulation model that estimates number of new HIV infections based on sexual behaviours of population groups. The model is parameterized based on national surveys and HIV program data. We hypothesized three coverage scenarios by 2030: scenario I - pre-COVID trajectory: 80% VMMC coverage; Scenario II - marginal COVID-19 impact: 60% VMMC coverage, and scenario III - severe COVID-19 impact: 45% VMMC coverage. VMMC coverage between 2020 and 2030 was linearly interpolated to attain the estimated coverage and then held constant from 2030 to 2050, and discounted outcomes at 3%. RESULTS: Compared to the baseline scenario I, in scenario II, we estimated that the disruption of VMMC services would generate an average of 200 (176-224) additional new infections per year and 7,200 new HIV infections over the next 30 years. For scenario III, we estimated an average of 413 (389-437) additional new HIV infections per year and 15,000 new HIV infections over the next 30 years. The disruption of VMMC services could generate additional future HIV treatment costs ranging from $27 million to $55 million dollars across scenarios II and III, respectively. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 disruptions destabilized delivery of VMMC services which could contribute to an additional 7,200 new infections over the next 30 years. Unless mitigated, these disruptions could derail the national goals of reducing new infections by 2030.

A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform HIV policy and planning. Comparing estimates obtained using different mathematical models can test the robustness of estimates and highlight research gaps. As part of a larger project aiming to determine the optimal allocation of funding for HIV services, in this study we compare projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV-Synthesis, Optima, and Thembisa. METHODS: The five modelling groups produced estimates of the total population, HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, proportion of people living with HIV who are diagnosed, ART coverage, proportion of those on ART who are virally suppressed, AIDS-related deaths, total deaths, and the proportion of adult males who are circumcised. Estimates were made under a "status quo" scenario for the period 1990 to 2040. For each output variable we assessed the consistency of model estimates by calculating the coefficient of variation and examining the trend over time. RESULTS: For most outputs there was significant inter-model variability between 1990 and 2005, when limited data was available for calibration, good consistency from 2005 to 2025, and increasing variability towards the end of the projection period. Estimates of HIV incidence, deaths in people living with HIV, and total deaths displayed the largest long-term variability, with standard deviations between 35 and 65% of the cross-model means. Despite this variability, all models predicted a gradual decline in HIV incidence in the long-term. Projections related to the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets were more consistent, with the coefficients of variation below 0.1 for all groups except children. CONCLUSIONS: While models produced consistent estimates for several outputs, there are areas of variability that should be investigated. This is important if projections are to be used in subsequent cost-effectiveness studies.

Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections. CONCLUSIONS: The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023.

Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030: Time to reset targets for 2025.

Paul De Lay and co-authors introduce a Collection on the design of targets for ending the AIDS epidemic.

The Importance of Probe Location for the Interpretation of Cerebral Microdialysis Data in Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Patients.

BACKGROUND: There is no uniform definition for cerebral microdialysis (CMD) probe location with respect to focal brain lesions, and the impact of CMD-probe location on measured molecule concentrations is unclear. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data of 51 consecutive subarachnoid hemorrhage patients with CMD-monitoring between 2010 and 2016 included in a prospective observational cohort study. Microdialysis probe location was assessed on all brain computed tomography (CT) scans performed during CMD-monitoring and defined as perilesional in the presence of a focal hypodense or hyperdense lesion within a 1-cm radius of the gold tip of the CMD-probe, or otherwise as normal-appearing brain tissue. RESULTS: Probe location was detected in normal-appearing brain tissue on 53/143 (37%) and in perilesional location on 90/143 (63%) CT scans. In the perilesional area, CMD-glucose levels were lower (p = 0.003), whereas CMD-lactate (p = 0.002), CMD-lactate-to-pyruvate-ratio (LPR; p < 0.001), CMD-glutamate (p = 0.002), and CMD-glycerol levels (p < 0.001) were higher. Neuroglucopenia (CMD-glucose < 0.7 mmol/l, p = 0.002), metabolic distress (p = 0.002), and mitochondrial dysfunction (p = 0.005) were more common in perilesional compared to normal-appearing brain tissue. Development of new lesions in the proximity of the CMD-probe (n = 13) was associated with a decrease in CMD-glucose levels, evidence of neuroglucopenia, metabolic distress, as well as increasing CMD-glutamate and CMD-glycerol levels. Neuroglucopenia was associated with poor outcome independent of probe location, whereas elevated CMD-lactate, CMD-LPR, CMD-glutamate, and CMD-glycerol levels were only predictive of poor outcome in normal-appearing brain tissue. CONCLUSIONS: Focal brain lesions significantly impact on concentrations of brain metabolites assessed by CMD. With the exception of CMD-glucose, the prognostic value of CMD-derived parameters seems to be higher when assessed in normal-appearing brain tissue. CMD was sensitive to detect the development of new focal lesions in vicinity to the neuromonitoring probe. Probe location should be described in the research reporting brain metabolic changes measured by CMD and integrated in statistical models.

Modern contraceptive use, unmet need, and demand satisfied among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the focus countries of the Family Planning 2020 initiative: a systematic analysis using the Family Planning Estimation Tool.

BACKGROUND: The London Summit on Family Planning in 2012 inspired the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) initiative and the 120×20 goal of having an additional 120 million women and adolescent girls become users of modern contraceptives in 69 of the world's poorest countries by the year 2020. Working towards achieving 120 × 20 is crucial for ultimately achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of universal access and satisfying demand for reproductive health. Thus, a performance assessment is required to determine countries' progress. METHODS: An updated version of the Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) was used to construct estimates and projections of the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), unmet need for, and demand satisfied with modern methods of contraception among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the focus countries of the FP2020 initiative. We assessed current levels of family planning indicators and changes between 2012 and 2017. A counterfactual analysis was used to assess if recent levels of mCPR exceeded pre-FP2020 expectations. FINDINGS: In 2017, the mCPR among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the FP2020 focus countries was 45·7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 42·4-49·1), unmet need for modern methods was 21·6% (19·7-23·9), and the demand satisfied with modern methods was 67·9% (64·4-71·1). Between 2012 and 2017 the number of women of reproductive age who are married or in a union who use modern methods increased by 28·8 million (95% UI 5·8-52·5). At the regional level, Asia has seen the mCPR among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union grow from 51·0% (95% UI 48·5-53·4) to 51·8% (47·3-56·5) between 2012 and 2017, which is slow growth, particularly when compared with a change from 23·9% (22·9-25·0) to 28·5% (26·8-30·2) across Africa. At the country level, based on a counterfactual analysis, we found that 61% of the countries that have made a commitment to FP2020 exceeded pre-FP2020 expectations for modern contraceptive use. Country success stories include rapid increases in Kenya, Mozambique, Malawi, Lesotho, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Chad relative to what was expected in 2012. INTERPRETATION: Whereas the estimate of additional users up to 2017 for women of reproductive age who are married or in a union would suggest that the 120 × 20 goal for all women is overly ambitious, the aggregate outcomes mask the diversity in progress at the country level. We identified countries with accelerated progress, that provide inspiration and guidance on how to increase the use of family planning and inform future efforts, especially in countries where progress has been poor. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, through grant support to the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Avenir Health.

Using Evidence to Drive Impact: Developing the FP Goals Impact Matrix.

When designing a family planning (FP) strategy, decision-makers can choose from a wide range of interventions designed to expand access to and develop demand for FP. However, not all interventions will have the same impact on increasing modern contraceptive prevalence (mCP). Understanding the existing evidence is critical to planning successful and cost-effective programs. The Impact Matrix is the first comprehensive summary of the impact of a full range of FP interventions on increasing mCP using a single comparable metric. It was developed through an extensive literature review with input from the wider FP community, and includes 138 impact factors highlighting the range of effectiveness observed across categories and subcategories of FP interventions. The Impact Matrix is central to the FP Goals model, used to project scenarios of mCP growth that help decision-makers set realistic goals and prioritize investments. Development of the Impact Matrix, evidence gaps identified, and the contribution to FP Goals are discussed.

Impact of HIV Drug Resistance on HIV/AIDS-Associated Mortality, New Infections, and Antiretroviral Therapy Program Costs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV incidence, and ART program costs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pretreatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean, 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890 000 deaths), 9% of new infections (450 000), and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016-2030 will be attributable to HIVDR.

Sustained progress, but no room for complacency: Results of 2015 HIV estimations in India.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Evidence-based planning has been the cornerstone of India's response to HIV/AIDS. Here we describe the process, method and tools used for generating the 2015 HIV estimates and provide a summary of the main results. METHODS: Spectrum software supported by the UNAIDS was used to produce HIV estimates for India as a whole and its States/Union Territories. This tool takes into consideration the size and HIV prevalence of defined population groups and programme data to estimate HIV prevalence, incidence and mortality over time as well as treatment needs. RESULTS: India's national adult prevalence of HIV was 0.26 per cent in 2015. Of the 2.1 million people living with HIV/AIDS, the largest numbers were in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. New HIV infections were an estimated 86,000 in 2015, reflecting a decline by around 32 per cent from 2007. The declining trend in incidence was mirrored in most States, though an increasing trend was detected in Assam, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Sikkim, Tripura and Uttar Pradesh. AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 67,600 in 2015, reflecting a 54 per cent decline from 2007. There were variations in the rate and trend of decline across India for this indicator also. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS: While key indicators measured through Spectrum modelling confirm success of the National AIDS Control Programme, there is no room for complacency as rising incidence trends in some geographical areas and population pockets remain the cause of concern. Progress achieved so far in responding to HIV/AIDS needs to be sustained to end the HIV epidemic.

The effects of family planning and other factors on fertility, abortion, miscarriage, and stillbirths in the Spectrum model.

BACKGROUND: The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) estimates the effects of maternal and child health interventions on mortality rates and the number of deaths. The family planning module in Spectrum interacts with LiST by providing estimates of the effects of scaling up family planning use on the number of live births, miscarriages, abortions, and stillbirths. METHODS: We use the proximate determinants of fertility framework to estimate the effects of changes in contraceptive use, proportion married, postpartum insusceptibility, abortion and sterility on the total fertility rate. We extend this framework to estimate the number of intended and unintended pregnancies and the resulting live births, abortions, stillbirths, and miscarriages. RESULTS: We apply the model to four countries (Mali, Kenya, Indonesia, and Ukraine) to demonstrate possible trends with a range of family planning and fertility levels. In high-fertility countries, such as Mali, increases in contraceptive use will partially compensate for the increasing number of women of reproductive age to reduce the annual increases in pregnancies and births. Most unintended pregnancies occur to women defined as having unmet need for contraception. In low-fertility countries, increases in contraceptive use may reduce abortion rates and low levels of unmet need mean that most unintended pregnancies are due to method failure. CONCLUSIONS: The family planning module in Spectrum provides a useful framework to incorporate changes in contraceptive practices and pregnancy outcomes in the LiST calculations of mortality rates and deaths.

Impact of malaria interventions on child mortality in endemic African settings: comparison and alignment between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria model.

BACKGROUND: In malaria-endemic countries, malaria prevention and treatment are critical for child health. In the context of intervention scale-up and rapid changes in endemicity, projections of intervention impact and optimized program scale-up strategies need to take into account the consequent dynamics of transmission and immunity. METHODS: The new Spectrum-Malaria program planning tool was used to project health impacts of Insecticide-Treated mosquito Nets (ITNs) and effective management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CMU), among other interventions, on malaria infection prevalence, case incidence and mortality in children 0-4 years, 5-14 years of age and adults. Spectrum-Malaria uses statistical models fitted to simulations of the dynamic effects of increasing intervention coverage on these burdens as a function of baseline malaria endemicity, seasonality in transmission and malaria intervention coverage levels (estimated for years 2000 to 2015 by the World Health Organization and Malaria Atlas Project). Spectrum-Malaria projections of proportional reductions in under-five malaria mortality were compared with those of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, for given (standardized) scenarios of ITN and/or CMU scale-up over 2016-2030. RESULTS: Proportional mortality reductions over the first two years following scale-up of ITNs from near-zero baselines to moderately higher coverages align well between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria -as expected since both models were fitted to cluster-randomized ITN trials in moderate-to-high-endemic settings with 2-year durations. For further scale-up from moderately high ITN coverage to near-universal coverage (as currently relevant for strategic planning for many countries), Spectrum-Malaria predicts smaller additional ITN impacts than LiST, reflecting progressive saturation. For CMU, especially in the longer term (over 2022-2030) and for lower-endemic settings (like Zambia), Spectrum-Malaria projects larger proportional impacts, reflecting onward dynamic effects not fully captured by LiST. CONCLUSIONS: Spectrum-Malaria complements LiST by extending the scope of malaria interventions, program packages and health outcomes that can be evaluated for policy making and strategic planning within and beyond the perspective of child survival.

Clinical significance and risk factors for new onset and recurring atrial fibrillation following cardiac surgery - a retrospective data analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although mortality after cardiac surgery has significantly decreased in the last decade, patients still experience clinically relevant postoperative complications. Among others, atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common consequence of cardiac surgery, which is associated with prolonged hospitalization and increased mortality. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery or a combination of both at the University Hospital Muenster between April 2014 and July 2015. We evaluated the incidence of new onset and intermittent/permanent AF (patients with pre- and postoperative AF). Furthermore, we investigated the impact of postoperative AF on clinical outcomes and evaluated potential risk factors. RESULTS: In total, 999 patients were included in the analysis. New onset AF occurred in 24.9% of the patients and the incidence of intermittent/permanent AF was 59.5%. Both types of postoperative AF were associated with prolonged ICU length of stay (median increase approx. 2 days) and duration of mechanical ventilation (median increase 1 h). Additionally, new onset AF patients had a higher rate of dialysis and hospital mortality and more positive fluid balance on the day of surgery and postoperative days 1 and 2. In a multiple logistic regression model, advanced age (odds ratio (OR) = 1.448 per decade increase, p < 0.0001), a combination of CABG and valve surgery (OR = 1.711, p = 0.047), higher C-reactive protein (OR = 1.06 per unit increase, p < 0.0001) and creatinine plasma concentration (OR = 1.287 per unit increase, p = 0.032) significantly predicted new onset AF. Higher Horowitz index values were associated with a reduced risk (OR = 0.996 per unit increase, p = 0.012). In a separate model, higher plasma creatinine concentration (OR = 2.125 per unit increase, p = 0.022) was a significant risk factor for intermittent/permanent AF whereas higher plasma phosphate concentration (OR = 0.522 per unit increase, p = 0.003) indicated reduced occurrence of this arrhythmia. CONCLUSIONS: New onset and intermittent/permanent AF are associated with adverse clinical outcomes of elective cardiac surgery patients. Different risk factors implicated in postoperative AF suggest different mechanisms might be involved in its pathogenesis. Customized clinical management protocols seem to be warranted for a higher success rate of prevention and treatment of postoperative AF.

Incidence of Opportunistic Infections and the Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-Infected Adults in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: To understand regional burdens and inform delivery of health services, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on incidence of key opportunistic infections (OIs) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Eligible studies describing the cumulative incidence of OIs and proportion on ART from 1990 to November 2013 were identified using multiple databases. Summary incident risks for the ART-naive period, and during and after the first year of ART, were calculated using random-effects meta-analyses. Summary estimates from ART subgroups were compared using meta-regression. The number of OI cases and associated costs averted if ART was initiated at a CD4 count ≥200 cells/µL were estimated using Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) country estimates and global average OI treatment cost per case. RESULTS: We identified 7965 citations, and included 126 studies describing 491 608 HIV-infected persons. In ART-naive patients, summary risk was highest (>5%) for oral candidiasis, tuberculosis, herpes zoster, and bacterial pneumonia. The reduction in incidence was greatest for all OIs during the first 12 months of ART (range, 57%-91%) except for tuberculosis, and was largest for oral candidiasis, Pneumocystis pneumonia, and toxoplasmosis. Earlier ART was estimated to have averted 857 828 cases in 2013 (95% confidence interval [CI], 828 032-874 853), with cost savings of $46.7 million (95% CI, $43.8-$49.4 million). CONCLUSIONS: There was a major reduction in risk for most OIs with ART use in LMICs, with the greatest effect seen in the first year of treatment. ART has resulted in substantial cost savings from OIs averted.

Increased sleep need and daytime sleepiness 6 months after traumatic brain injury: a prospective controlled clinical trial.

Post-traumatic sleep-wake disturbances are common after acute traumatic brain injury. Increased sleep need per 24 h and excessive daytime sleepiness are among the most prevalent post-traumatic sleep disorders and impair quality of life of trauma patients. Nevertheless, the relation between traumatic brain injury and sleep outcome, but also the link between post-traumatic sleep problems and clinical measures in the acute phase after traumatic brain injury has so far not been addressed in a controlled and prospective approach. We therefore performed a prospective controlled clinical study to examine (i) sleep-wake outcome after traumatic brain injury; and (ii) to screen for clinical and laboratory predictors of poor sleep-wake outcome after acute traumatic brain injury. Forty-two of 60 included patients with first-ever traumatic brain injury were available for follow-up examinations. Six months after trauma, the average sleep need per 24 h as assessed by actigraphy was markedly increased in patients as compared to controls (8.3 ± 1.1 h versus 7.1 ± 0.8 h, P < 0.0001). Objective daytime sleepiness was found in 57% of trauma patients and 19% of healthy subjects, and the average sleep latency in patients was reduced to 8.7 ± 4.6 min (12.1 ± 4.7 min in controls, P = 0.0009). Patients, but not controls, markedly underestimated both excessive sleep need and excessive daytime sleepiness when assessed only by subjective means, emphasizing the unreliability of self-assessment of increased sleep propensity in traumatic brain injury patients. At polysomnography, slow wave sleep after traumatic brain injury was more consolidated. The most important risk factor for developing increased sleep need after traumatic brain injury was the presence of an intracranial haemorrhage. In conclusion, we provide controlled and objective evidence for a direct relation between sleep-wake disturbances and traumatic brain injury, and for clinically significant underestimation of post-traumatic sleep-wake disturbances by trauma patients.

Estimating the impact of the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief on HIV treatment and prevention programmes in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Since 2004, the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has supported the tremendous scale-up of HIV prevention, care and treatment services, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluate the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programmes on survival, mortality, new infections and the number of orphans from 2004 to 2013 in 16 PEPFAR countries in Africa. METHODS: PEPFAR indicators tracking the number of persons receiving ART for their own health, ART regimens for PMTCT and biomedical prevention of HIV through VMMC were collected across 16 PEPFAR countries. To estimate the impact of PEPFAR programmes for ART, PMTCT and VMMC, we compared the current scenario of PEPFAR-supported interventions to a counterfactual scenario without PEPFAR, and assessed the number of life years gained (LYG), number of orphans averted and HIV infections averted. Mathematical modelling was conducted using the SPECTRUM modelling suite V.5.03. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2013, PEPFAR programmes provided support for a cumulative number of 24 565 127 adults and children on ART, 4 154 878 medical male circumcisions, and ART for PMTCT among 4 154 478 pregnant women in 16 PEPFAR countries. Based on findings from the model, these efforts have helped avert 2.9 million HIV infections in the same period. During 2004-2013, PEPFAR ART programmes alone helped avert almost 9 million orphans in 16 PEPFAR countries and resulted in 11.6 million LYG. CONCLUSIONS: Modelling results suggest that the rapid scale-up of PEPFAR-funded ART, PMTCT and VMMC programmes in Africa during 2004-2013 led to substantially fewer new HIV infections and orphaned children during that time and longer lives among people living with HIV. Our estimates do not account for the impact of the PEPFAR-funded non-biomedical interventions such as behavioural and structural interventions included in the comprehensive HIV prevention, care and treatment strategy used by PEPFAR countries. Therefore, the number of HIV infections and orphans averted and LYG may be underestimated by these models.

Cerebral tau is elevated after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage and associated with brain metabolic distress and poor functional and cognitive long-term outcome.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence suggests axonal injury after aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH). The microtubule-associated protein, tau, has been shown to be elevated in the cerebrospinal fluid after aSAH, however, brain extracellular tau levels and their relation to long-term neurological and cognitive outcomes have not been investigated. METHODS: Serial cerebral microdialysis (CMD) samples were collected from 22 consecutive aSAH patients with multimodal neuromonitoring to determine CMD-total-tau by ELISA. CMD-total-tau was analysed considering other brain metabolic parameters, brain tissue oxygen tension (PbtO2), and functional and neuropsychological outcome at 12 months. All outcome models were analysed using generalised estimating equations with an autoregressive working correlation matrix to account for multiple measurements of brain extracellular proteins per subject. RESULTS: CMD-total-tau levels positively correlated with brain extracellular fluid levels of lactate (r=0.40, p<0.001), glutamate (r=0.45, p<0.001), pyruvate (r=0.26, p<0.001), and the lactate-pyruvate ratio (r=0.26, p<0.001), and were higher in episodes of hypoxic (PbtO2<20 mm Hg) brain extracellular lactate elevation (>4 mmol/L) (p<0.01). More importantly, high CMD-total-tau levels were associated with poor functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale ≥4) 12 months after aSAH even after adjusting for disease severity and age (p=0.001). A similar association was found with 3/5 neuropsychological tests indicative of impairments in cognition, psychomotor speed, visual conceptualisation and frontal executive functions at 1 year after aSAH (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that CMD-total tau may be an important biomarker for predicting long-term outcome in patients with severe aSAH. The value of axonal injury needs further confirmation in a larger patient cohort, preferably combined with advanced imaging techniques.

Safety and efficacy of regional citrate anticoagulation in continuous venovenous hemodialysis in the presence of liver failure: the Liver Citrate Anticoagulation Threshold (L-CAT) observational study.

INTRODUCTION: Regional citrate anticoagulation (RCA) for continuous renal replacement therapy is widely used in intensive care units (ICUs). However, concern exists about the safety of citrate in patients with liver failure (LF). The aim of this study was to evaluate safety and efficacy of RCA in ICU patients with varying degrees of impaired liver function. METHODS: In a multicenter, prospective, observational study, 133 patients who were treated with RCA and continuous venovenous hemodialysis (RCA-CVVHD) were included. Endpoints for safety were severe acidosis or alkalosis (pH ≤7.2 or ≥7.55, respectively) and severe hypo- or hypercalcemia (ionized calcium ≤0.9 or ≥1.5 mmol/L, respectively) of any cause. The endpoint for efficacy was filter lifetime. For analysis, patients were stratified into three predefined liver function or LF groups according to their baseline serum bilirubin level (normal liver function ≤2 mg/dl, mild LF >2 to ≤7 mg/dl, severe LF >7 mg/dl). RESULTS: We included 48 patients with normal liver function, 43 with mild LF, and 42 with severe LF. LF was predominantly due to ischemia (39 %) or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (27 %). The frequency of safety endpoints in the three patient strata did not differ: severe alkalosis (normal liver function 2 %, mild LF 0 %, severe LF 5 %; p = 0.41), severe acidosis (normal liver function 13 %, mild LF 16 %, severe LF 14 %; p = 0.95), severe hypocalcemia (normal liver function 8 %, mild LF 14 %, severe LF 12 %; p = 0.70), and severe hypercalcemia (0 % in all strata). Only three patients showed signs of impaired citrate metabolism. Overall filter patency was 49 % at 72 h. After censoring for stop of the treatment due to non-clotting causes, estimated 72-h filter survival was 96 %. CONCLUSIONS: RCA-CVVHD can be safely used in patients with LF. The technique yields excellent filter patency and thus can be recommended as first-line anticoagulation for the majority of ICU patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry identifier: ISRCTN92716512 . Date assigned: 4 December 2008.

Prolonged continuous intravenous infusion of the dipeptide L-alanine- L-glutamine significantly increases plasma glutamine and alanine without elevating brain glutamate in patients with severe traumatic brain injury.

INTRODUCTION: Low plasma glutamine levels are associated with worse clinical outcome. Intravenous glutamine infusion dose- dependently increases plasma glutamine levels, thereby correcting hypoglutaminemia. Glutamine may be transformed to glutamate which might limit its application at a higher dose in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). To date, the optimal glutamine dose required to normalize plasma glutamine levels without increasing plasma and cerebral glutamate has not yet been defined. METHODS: Changes in plasma and cerebral glutamine, alanine, and glutamate as well as indirect signs of metabolic impairment reflected by increased intracranial pressure (ICP), lactate, lactate-to-pyruvate ratio, electroencephalogram (EEG) activity were determined before, during, and after continuous intravenous infusion of 0.75 g L-alanine-L-glutamine which was given either for 24 hours (group 1, n = 6) or 5 days (group 2, n = 6) in addition to regular enteral nutrition. Lab values including nitrogen balance, urea and ammonia were determined daily. RESULTS: Continuous L-alanine-L-glutamine infusion significantly increased plasma and cerebral glutamine as well as alanine levels, being mostly sustained during the 5 day infusion phase (plasma glutamine: from 295 ± 62 to 500 ± 145 µmol/ l; brain glutamine: from 183 ± 188 to 549 ± 120 µmol/ l; plasma alanine: from 327 ± 91 to 622 ± 182 µmol/ l; brain alanine: from 48 ± 55 to 89 ± 129 µmol/ l; p < 0.05, ANOVA, post hoc Dunn's test). CONCLUSIONS: High dose L-alanine-L-glutamine infusion (0.75 g/ kg/ d up to 5 days) increased plasma and brain glutamine and alanine levels. This was not associated with elevated glutamate or signs of potential glutamate-mediated cerebral injury. The increased nitrogen load should be considered in patients with renal and hepatic dysfunction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02130674. Registered 5 April 2014.

Methods and Assumptions for Estimating Key HIV Indicators in the UNAIDS Annual Estimates Process.

BACKGROUND: Each year UNAIDS supports national teams to estimate key HIV indicators using their latest data. These estimates are produced using a collection of models and software tools. This paper describes the demographic and HIV projection models used in this process. METHODS: The demographic model (DemProj) projects the population by sex and single age for each year of the estimate. This information is fed into the HIV model (AIDS Impact Model) to estimate key HIV indicators. The model uses program, survey and surveillance data along with incidence trends produced through 1 of several separate models, to estimate new HIV infections, HIV-related deaths, and the population living with HIV by sex, age, CD4 category, and treatment status. RESULTS: These models allow the annual production of estimates of key HIV indicators including uncertainty intervals. This information is used to track progress toward national and global goals and to develop national strategic plans, Global Fund applications and PEPFAR country operational plans. CONCLUSIONS: Under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modeling and Projections, these models are updated on a regular basis in response to evolving programmatic needs, new data, and analyses. This process of continuous review and improvement has led to mature models that make the best use of available data to provide estimates of indicators important to monitoring progress and developing future plans.

Differences in Breastfeeding Duration by Maternal HIV Status: A Pooled Analysis of Nationally Representative Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Breastfeeding improves child survival but is a source of mother-to-child HIV transmission among women with unsuppressed HIV infection. Estimated HIV incidence in children is sensitive to breastfeeding duration among mothers living with HIV (MLHIV). Breastfeeding duration may vary according to maternal HIV status. SETTING: Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We analyzed pooled data from nationally representative household surveys conducted during 2003-2019 that included HIV testing and elicited breastfeeding practices. We fitted survival models of breastfeeding duration by country, year, and maternal HIV status for 4 sub-Saharan African regions (Eastern, Central, Southern, and Western). RESULTS: Data were obtained from 65 surveys in 31 countries. In 2010, breastfeeding in the first month of life ("initial breastfeeding") among MLHIV ranged from 69.1% (95% credible interval: 68-79.9) in Southern Africa to 93.4% (92.7-98.0) in Western Africa. Median breastfeeding duration among MLHIV was the shortest in Southern Africa at 15.6 (14.2-16.3) months and the longest in Eastern Africa at 22.0 (21.7-22.5) months. By comparison, HIV-negative mothers were more likely to breastfeed initially (91.0%-98.7% across regions) and for longer duration (median 18.3-24.6 months across regions). Initial breastfeeding and median breastfeeding duration decreased during 2005-2015 in most regions and did not increase in any region regardless of maternal HIV status. CONCLUSIONS: MLHIV in sub-Saharan Africa are less likely to breastfeed initially and stop breastfeeding sooner than HIV-negative mothers. Since 2020, UNAIDS-supported HIV estimates have accounted for this shorter breastfeeding exposure among HIV-exposed children. MLHIV need support to enable optimal breastfeeding practices and to adhere to antiretroviral therapy for HIV treatment and prevention of postnatal mother-to-child transmission.