Personalised lung cancer risk stratification and lung cancer screening: do general practice electronic medical records have a role?

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom (UK), cancer screening invitations are based on general practice (GP) registrations. We hypothesize that GP electronic medical records (EMR) can be utilised to calculate a lung cancer risk score with good accuracy/clinical utility. METHODS: The development cohort was Secure Anonymised Information Linkage-SAIL (2.3 million GP EMR) and the validation cohort was UK Biobank-UKB (N = 211,597 with GP-EMR availability). Fast backward method was applied for variable selection and area under the curve (AUC) evaluated discrimination. RESULTS: Age 55-75 were included (SAIL: N = 574,196; UKB: N = 137,918). Six-year lung cancer incidence was 1.1% (6430) in SAIL and 0.48% (656) in UKB. The final model included 17/56 variables in SAIL for the EMR-derived score: age, sex, socioeconomic status, smoking status, family history, body mass index (BMI), BMI:smoking interaction, alcohol misuse, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, dementia, hypertension, painful condition, stroke, peripheral vascular disease and history of previous cancer and previous pneumonia. The GP-EMR-derived score had AUC of 80.4% in SAIL and 74.4% in UKB and outperformed ever-smoked criteria (currently the first step in UK lung cancer screening pilots). DISCUSSION: A GP-EMR-derived score may have a role in UK lung cancer screening by accurately targeting high-risk individuals without requiring patient contact.

Intranasal steroid use and COVID-19 mortality among patients with asthma and COPD: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Systemic corticosteroids have been widely used for treating patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. Inhaled corticosteroids may have a protective effect for treating acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); however, little is known about the potential effect of intranasal corticosteroids (INCS) on COVID-19 outcomes and severity. OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of prior long-term INCS exposure on COVID-19 mortality among patients with chronic respiratory disease and in the general population. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between INCS exposure and all-cause and COVID-19 mortality, adjusted by age, sex, deprivation, exacerbations in the last year, and comorbidities. RESULTS: Exposure to INCS did not have a significant association with COVID-19 mortality among the general population or cohorts with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or asthma, with HRs of 0.8 (95% CI, 0.6-1.0, P = .06), 0.6 (95% CI, 0.3-1.1, P = .1), and 0.9 (95% CI, 0.2-3.9, P = .9), respectively. Exposure to INCS was, however, significantly associated with reduction in all-cause mortality in all groups, which was 40% lower (HR, 0.6 [95% CI, 0.5-0.6, P < .001]) among the general population, 30% lower (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6-0.8, P < .001) among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 50% lower (HR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3-0.7, P = .003) among patients with asthma. CONCLUSION: The role of INCS in COVID-19 is still unclear, but exposure to INCS does not adversely affect COVID-19 mortality. Further studies are needed to explore the association between their use and inflammatory activation, viral load, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 gene expression, and outcomes, exploring different types and doses of INCS.

Earlier diagnosis of lung cancer in a randomised trial of an autoantibody blood test followed by imaging.

The EarlyCDT-Lung test is a high-specificity blood-based autoantibody biomarker that could contribute to predicting lung cancer risk. We report on the results of a phase IV biomarker evaluation of whether using the EarlyCDT-Lung test and any subsequent computed tomography (CT) scanning to identify those at high risk of lung cancer reduces the incidence of patients with stage III/IV/unspecified lung cancer at diagnosis compared with the standard clinical practice at the time the study began.The Early Diagnosis of Lung Cancer Scotland (ECLS) trial was a randomised controlled trial of 12 208 participants at risk of developing lung cancer in Scotland in the UK. The intervention arm received the EarlyCDT-Lung test and, if test-positive, low-dose CT scanning 6-monthly for up to 2 years. EarlyCDT-Lung test-negative and control arm participants received standard clinical care. Outcomes were assessed at 2 years post-randomisation using validated data on cancer occurrence, cancer staging, mortality and comorbidities.At 2 years, 127 lung cancers were detected in the study population (1.0%). In the intervention arm, 33 out of 56 (58.9%) lung cancers were diagnosed at stage III/IV compared with 52 out of 71 (73.2%) in the control arm. The hazard ratio for stage III/IV presentation was 0.64 (95% CI 0.41-0.99). There were nonsignificant differences in lung cancer and all-cause mortality after 2 years.ECLS compared EarlyCDT-Lung plus CT screening to standard clinical care (symptomatic presentation) and was not designed to assess the incremental contribution of the EarlyCDT-Lung test. The observation of a stage shift towards earlier-stage lung cancer diagnosis merits further investigations to evaluate whether the EarlyCDT-Lung test adds anything to the emerging standard of low-dose CT.

Determinants of motivation to quit in smokers screened for the early detection of lung cancer: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The promotion of smoking cessation within lung cancer screening could lead to benefits for smoking-related disease and improve cost-effectiveness of screening. Little is known about how smokers respond to lung cancer screening and how this impacts smoking behaviour. We aimed to understand how lung cancer screening influences individual motivations about smoking, including in those who have stopped smoking since screening. METHODS: Thirty one long-term smokers aged 51-74 took part in semi-structured interviews about smoking. They had been screened with the EarlyCDT-Lung Test (13 positive result; 18 negative) as part of the Early Cancer Detection Test Lung Cancer Scotland Study. They were purposively sampled for interview based on their self-reported post-screening smoking behaviour. Eleven participants had stopped smoking since screening. Verbatim interview transcripts were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Two key overarching themes were interpretations of screening test results and emotional responses to those interpretations. Participants' understanding of the risk implied by their test result was often inaccurate, for example a negative result interpreted as an 'all-clear' from lung cancer and a positive result as meaning lung cancer would definitely develop. Those interpretations led to emotional responses (fear, shock, worry, relief, indifference) influencing motivations about smoking. Other themes included a wake-up call causing changes in perceived risk of smoking-related disease, a feeling that now is the time to stop smoking and family influences. There was no clear pattern in smoking motivations in those who received positive or negative test results. Of those who had stopped smoking, some cited screening experiences as the sole motivation, some cited screening along with other coinciding factors, and others cited non-screening reasons. Cues to change were experienced at different stages of the screening process. Some participants indicated they underwent screening to try and stop smoking, while others expressed little or no desire to stop. CONCLUSIONS: We observed complex and individualised motivations about smoking following lung cancer screening. To be most effective, smoking cessation support in this context should explore understanding of screening test results and may need to be highly tailored to individual emotional responses to screening.

90-Day subchronic toxicity study of sodium molybdate dihydrate in rats.

This study investigated the subchronic toxicity of molybdenum (Mo) in Sprague-Dawley rats given sodium molybdate dihydrate in the diet for 90days at dose levels of 0, 5, 17 or 60mgMo/kgbw/day. The study complied with OECD Test Guideline (TG) 408, with additional examination of estrus cycles and sperm count, motility, and morphology from OECD TG 416. The overall no-observed-adverse-effect level was 17mgMo/kgbw/day, based on effects on body weight, body weight gain, food conversion efficiency and renal histopathology (females only) at 60mgMo/kgbw/day. No treatment-related adverse effects on reproductive organ weights or histopathology, estrus cycles or sperm parameters were observed at any dose level. No adverse effects were observed in the high dose animals after the 60-day recovery period, with the exception that male rats did not fully recover from reduced body weight. Serum blood, liver and kidney samples were analyzed for molybdenum, copper, zinc, manganese, iron, cobalt and selenium; high levels of molybdenum and copper were found in the serum, blood, liver and kidneys of rats treated with 60mgMo/kgbw/day. In conclusion, the LOAEL and NOAEL for molybdenum were determined to be 60 and 17mgMo/kgbw/day, respectively.

Tmem79/Matt is the matted mouse gene and is a predisposing gene for atopic dermatitis in human subjects.

BACKGROUND: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a major inflammatory condition of the skin caused by inherited skin barrier deficiency, with mutations in the filaggrin gene predisposing to development of AD. Support for barrier deficiency initiating AD came from flaky tail mice, which have a frameshift mutation in Flg and also carry an unknown gene, matted, causing a matted hair phenotype. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify the matted mutant gene in mice and further define whether mutations in the human gene were associated with AD. METHODS: A mouse genetics approach was used to separate the matted and Flg mutations to produce congenic single-mutant strains for genetic and immunologic analysis. Next-generation sequencing was used to identify the matted gene. Five independently recruited AD case collections were analyzed to define associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the human gene and AD. RESULTS: The matted phenotype in flaky tail mice is due to a mutation in the Tmem79/Matt gene, with no expression of the encoded protein mattrin in the skin of mutant mice. Matt(ft) mice spontaneously have dermatitis and atopy caused by a defective skin barrier, with mutant mice having systemic sensitization after cutaneous challenge with house dust mite allergens. Meta-analysis of 4,245 AD cases and 10,558 population-matched control subjects showed that a missense SNP, rs6684514, [corrected] in the human MATT gene has a small but significant association with AD. CONCLUSION: In mice mutations in Matt cause a defective skin barrier and spontaneous dermatitis and atopy. A common SNP in MATT has an association with AD in human subjects.

Protocol for a drugs exposure pregnancy registry for implementation in resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND: The absence of robust evidence of safety of medicines in pregnancy, particularly those for major diseases provided by public health programmes in developing countries, has resulted in cautious recommendations on their use. We describe a protocol for a Pregnancy Registry adapted to resource-limited settings aimed at providing evidence on the safety of medicines in pregnancy. METHODS/DESIGN: Sentinel health facilities are chosen where women come for prenatal care and are likely to come for delivery. Staff capacity is improved to provide better care during the pregnancy, to identify visible birth defects at delivery and refer infants with major anomalies for surgical or clinical evaluation and treatment. Consenting women are enrolled at their first antenatal visit and careful medical, obstetric and drug-exposure histories taken; medical record linkage is encouraged. Enrolled women are followed up prospectively and their histories are updated at each subsequent visit. The enrolled woman is encouraged to deliver at the facility, where she and her baby can be assessed. DISCUSSION: In addition to data pooling into a common WHO database, the WHO Pregnancy Registry has three important features: First is the inclusion of pregnant women coming for antenatal care, enabling comparison of birth outcomes of women who have been exposed to a medicine with those who have not. Second is its applicability to resource-poor settings regardless of drug or disease. Third is improvement of reproductive health care during pregnancies and at delivery. Facility delivery enables better health outcomes, timely evaluation and management of the newborn, and the collection of reliable clinical data. The Registry aims to improves maternal and neonatal care and also provide much needed information on the safety of medicines in pregnancy.

Early treatment with prednisolone or acyclovir in Bell's palsy.

BACKGROUND: Corticosteroids and antiviral agents are widely used to treat the early stages of idiopathic facial paralysis (i.e., Bell's palsy), but their effectiveness is uncertain. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, factorial trial involving patients with Bell's palsy who were recruited within 72 hours after the onset of symptoms. Patients were randomly assigned to receive 10 days of treatment with prednisolone, acyclovir, both agents, or placebo. The primary outcome was recovery of facial function, as rated on the House-Brackmann scale. Secondary outcomes included quality of life, appearance, and pain. RESULTS: Final outcomes were assessed for 496 of 551 patients who underwent randomization. At 3 months, the proportions of patients who had recovered facial function were 83.0% in the prednisolone group as compared with 63.6% among patients who did not receive prednisolone (P<0.001) and 71.2% in the acyclovir group as compared with 75.7% among patients who did not receive acyclovir (adjusted P=0.50). After 9 months, these proportions were 94.4% for prednisolone and 81.6% for no prednisolone (P<0.001) and 85.4% for acyclovir and 90.8% for no acyclovir (adjusted P=0.10). For patients treated with both drugs, the proportions were 79.7% at 3 months (P<0.001) and 92.7% at 9 months (P<0.001). There were no clinically significant differences between the treatment groups in secondary outcomes. There were no serious adverse events in any group. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with Bell's palsy, early treatment with prednisolone significantly improves the chances of complete recovery at 3 and 9 months. There is no evidence of a benefit of acyclovir given alone or an additional benefit of acyclovir in combination with prednisolone. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN71548196 [controlled-trials.com].).

Safety of artemether-lumefantrine in pregnant women with malaria: results of a prospective cohort study in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Safety data regarding exposure to artemisinin-based combination therapy in pregnancy are limited. This prospective cohort study conducted in Zambia evaluated the safety of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in pregnant women with malaria. METHODS: Pregnant women attending antenatal clinics were assigned to groups based on the drug used to treat their most recent malaria episode (AL vs. sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, SP). Safety was assessed using standard and pregnancy-specific parameters. Post-delivery follow-up was six weeks for mothers and 12 months for live births. Primary outcome was perinatal mortality (stillbirth or neonatal death within seven days after birth). RESULTS: Data from 1,001 pregnant women (AL n = 495; SP n = 506) and 933 newborns (AL n = 466; SP n = 467) showed: perinatal mortality (AL 4.2%; SP 5.0%), comprised of early neonatal mortality (each group 2.3%), stillbirths (AL 1.9%; SP 2.7%); preterm deliveries (AL 14.1%; SP 17.4% of foetuses); and gestational age-adjusted low birth weight (AL 9.0%; SP 7.7%). Infant birth defect incidence was 1.8% AL and 1.6% SP, excluding umbilical hernia. Abortions prior to antenatal care could not be determined: abortion occurred in 4.5% of women treated with AL during their first trimester; none were reported in the 133 women exposed to SP and/or quinine during their first trimester. Overall development (including neurological assessment) was similar in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that exposure to AL in pregnancy, including first trimester, is not associated with particular safety risks in terms of perinatal mortality, malformations, or developmental impairment. However, more data are required on AL use during the first trimester.

Unconditional and conditional monetary incentives to increase response to mailed questionnaires: A randomized controlled study within a trial (SWAT).

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES: High response rates to research questionnaires can help to ensure results are more representative of the population studied and provide increased statistical power, on which the study may have been predicated. Improving speed and quality of response can reduce costs. METHOD: We conducted a randomized study within a trial (SWAT) to assess questionnaire response rates, reminders sent, and data completeness with unconditional compared with conditional monetary incentives. Eligible individuals were mailed a series of psychological questionnaires as a follow-up to a baseline host trial questionnaire. Half received a £5 gift voucher with questionnaires (unconditional), and half were promised the voucher after returning questionnaires (conditional). RESULTS: Of 1079 individuals, response rates to the first follow-up questionnaire were 94.2% and 91.7% in the unconditional and conditional monetary incentive groups, respectively (OR 1.78; 95% CI, 0.85-3.72). There were significantly greater odds of returning repeat questionnaires in the unconditional group at 6 months (OR 2.97; 95% CI, 1.01-8.71; .047) but not at 12 months (OR 1.12; 95% CI, 0.44-2.85). Incentive condition had no impact at any time point on the proportion of sent questionnaires that needed reminders. Odds of incomplete questionnaires were significantly greater at 3 months in the unconditional compared with the conditional incentive group (OR 2.45; 95% CI, 1.32-4.55; .004). CONCLUSIONS: Unconditional monetary incentives can produce a transitory greater likelihood of mailed questionnaire response in a clinical trial participant group, consistent with the direction of effect in other settings. However, this could have been a chance finding. The use of multiple strategies to promote response may have created a ceiling effect. This strategy has potential to reduce administrative and postage costs, weighed against the cost of incentives used, but could risk compromising the completeness of data.

Recording COVID-19 consultations: review of symptoms, risk factors, and proposed SNOMED CT terms.

BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for epidemiological research in primary care to develop risk assessment processes for patients presenting with COVID-19, but lack of a standardised approach to data collection is a significant barrier to implementation. AIM: To collate a list of relevant symptoms, assessment items, demographics, and lifestyle and health conditions associated with COVID-19, and match these data items with corresponding SNOMED CT clinical terms to support the development and implementation of consultation templates. DESIGN & SETTING: Published and preprint literature for systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and clinical guidelines describing the symptoms, assessment items, demographics, and/or lifestyle and health conditions associated with COVID-19 and its complications were reviewed. Corresponding clinical concepts from SNOMED CT, a widely used structured clinical vocabulary for electronic primary care health records, were identified. METHOD: Guidelines and published and unpublished reviews (N = 61) were utilised to collate a list of relevant data items for COVID-19 consultations. The NHS Digital SNOMED CT Browser was used to identify concept and descriptive identifiers. Key implementation challenges were conceptualised through a Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) lens. RESULTS: In total, 32 symptoms, eight demographic and lifestyle features, 25 health conditions, and 20 assessment items relevant to COVID-19 were identified, with proposed corresponding SNOMED CT concepts. These data items can be adapted into a consultation template for COVID-19. Key implementation challenges include: 1) engaging with key stakeholders to achieve 'buy in'; and 2) ensuring any template is usable within practice settings. CONCLUSION: Consultation templates for COVID-19 are needed to standardise data collection, facilitate research and learning, and potentially improve quality of care for COVID-19.

Health outcomes following liver function testing in primary care: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: patients who present with abnormal liver function tests (LFTs) in primary care and no obvious symptoms can be difficult to manage. OBJECTIVE: The objective is to follow-up a cohort of liver function tested patients to determine their outcome. METHODS: This population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted in Tayside, Scotland, from 1989 to 2003. Subjects were patients with no clinically obvious liver disease at initial liver function testing in primary care. Main outcomes were diagnosed liver disease and mortality. Record linkage of databases ascertained risk factors and outcomes. Measures of performance were calculated and Weibull regression analysis from initial LFT date was performed on all outcomes by level of abnormality. RESULTS: In total, 95 977 patients had 364 194 incident initial LFTs, with median follow-up 3.7 years. A total of 21.7% had at least one abnormal LFT and 1108 (1.15%) developed liver disease. Elevated transaminase was strongly associated with diagnosed liver disease, hazard ratio (HR) = 4.23 (95% confidence interval 3.55, 5.04) for mild levels and HR = 12.67 (95% CI 9.74, 16.47) for severe levels versus normal. For gamma-glutamyl transferase, these hazards were 2.54 (95% CI 2.17, 2.96) and 13.44 (95% CI 10.71, 16.87), respectively. Low albumin was strongly associated with all-cause mortality, HR = 2.65 (95% CI 2.47, 2.85) for mild levels and HR = 4.99 (95% CI 4.26, 5.84) for severe levels. Sensitivity for predicting events over 5 years was low and specificity high. CONCLUSIONS: All LFTs were predictive markers for liver disease as well as general ill health, although sensitivity was poor. Most patients with abnormal LFTs had no later formal diagnosis of liver disease within the study period. The time taken to develop liver disease in these patients provides opportunity to intervene.

A two-generation reproductive toxicity study of sodium molybdate dihydrate administered in drinking water or diet to Sprague-Dawley rats.

In an OECD Test Guideline 416 multigenerational study, groups of 24 male and 24 female Sprague-Dawley rats were administered sodium molybdate dihydrate at 0, 5, 17, or 40 mg molybdenum (Mo)/kg bw/day in the drinking water or 40 mg Mo/kg bw/day in the diet over two generations to assess reproductive toxicity. No adverse effect on reproductive function was observed at any dose level in either generation as indicated by no significant dose-related effect on estrus cycles, sperm parameters, mating, fertility, gestation, litter size, pup survival, growth or postnatal development. Systemic toxicity, including decreased body weight, food consumption (males only) and water consumption, was observed among both sexes given 40 mg Mo/kg bw/day in the diet. Serum levels of Mo and copper were increased in a dose-related manner. The No Observed Adverse Effect Levels (NOAEL) are 17 mg Mo/kg bw/day for systemic toxicity and 40 mg Mo/kg bw/day for reproductive toxicity.

Early experience of the use of short message service (SMS) technology in routine clinical care.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a technical appraisal and qualitative interviews with short message service (SMS--mobile phone text message) users in mainstream health care. DESIGN: Observation of service usage followed by in-depth semi-structured interviews. SETTING: A National Health Service (NHS) general practice in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and eighty patients registered. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Service utilisation and patients' views. RESULTS: It was technically feasible to open up access to mainstream NHS general practice services using SMS for appointment booking, repeat prescription ordering, clinical enquiries and remote access to the core clinical summary. CONCLUSION: Patients were able to use SMS services responsibly and found automation of prescription ordering particularly useful. Service utilisation was modest and did not adversely impact on the workload of general practitioners (GPs) or their staff.

A critical re-appraisal of different ways of selecting ambulatory patients with suspected heart failure for echocardiography.

BACKGROUND: ECG and BNP have been assessed as screening tests for LVSD and heart failure. However, echocardiography also provides information about valvular disease and LVH. We assessed how good these screening tests are in identifying whether the subsequent echocardiogram will have any significant abnormality. AIMS: To re-appraise the ECG and BNP as screening tests for echocardiography since there are important practical deficiencies in our current knowledge in this area. METHODS: General practitioners referred suspected heart failure patients for clinical assessment, echocardiography, electrocardiography, and BNP measurement. The accuracy of each screening test and combinations of screening tests were calculated for LVSD, heart failure, valvular disease, and LVH. RESULTS: The sensitivities of the ECG for LVSD, heart failure, LVH and valvular disease were 97%, 95%, 76%, and 69%, respectively. The corresponding figures for BNP were 86%, 82%, 59%, and 48%, respectively. When patients with atrial fibrillation and murmurs were excluded, the values for ECG were 94%, 87%, 53%, and 55%, while for BNP they were 83%, 73%, 50%, and 32%. CONCLUSIONS: ECG interpretation and BNP are adequate screening tests to detect LVSD or heart failure but fail to screen for other echocardiographic abnormalities, like valvular disease and LVH. This remains the case even if patients with atrial fibrillation or heart murmurs are excluded on the basis that they require echocardiography anyway.

Screening for left ventricular systolic dysfunction using GP-reported ECGs.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic echocardiography has poor access for patients with suspected heart failure. Pre-echocardiography screening with electrocardiograms (ECGs) is recommended as a means of targeting this scarce resource. There are data to support this policy when ECGs are interpreted by cardiologists but not by GPs. AIM: To assess the value of GP-reported ECGs as a pre-echocardiography screening test for left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD). DESIGN OF STUDY: Cross-sectional study of GPs' ECG reporting skills. SETTING: General practice, NHS in Scotland. METHOD: A randomly selected, stratified sample of 123 Scottish GPs reviewed 180 ECGs (100 abnormal, 50 normal and 30 duplicate) from 150 patients with suspected heart failure. Forty-one patients had LVSD on echocardiography. GPs were required to categorise ECGs as normal or abnormal. RESULTS: Mean sensitivity was 0.94 (95% CI = 0.92 to 0.95). Mean specificity 0.58 (95% CI = 0.56 to 0.60). Mean positive predictive value (PPV) was 0.47 (95% CI = 0.46 to 0.48). Mean negative predictive value (NPV) was 0.96 (95% CI = 0.95 to 0.97). Mean likelihood ratio was 2.39 (95% CI = 2.28 to 2.50). Seventy of 123 (57%) GPs achieved sensitivity of 0.9 and specificity of 0.5 for the detection of LVSD. CONCLUSION: Most Scottish GPs have the skills to perform pre-echocardiography screening ECGs in patients with suspected LVSD. However, differences in ECG reporting performance between individual GPs will result in widely varying referral rates for echocardiography and differences in the detection rate of LVSD. The implications of these findings need to be considered when heart failure diagnostic services are being developed.

Development of a decision support tool to facilitate primary care management of patients with abnormal liver function tests without clinically apparent liver disease [HTA03/38/02]. Abnormal Liver Function Investigations Evaluation (ALFIE).

BACKGROUND: Liver function tests (LFTs) are routinely performed in primary care, and are often the gateway to further invasive and/or expensive investigations. Little is known of the consequences in people with an initial abnormal liver function (ALF) test in primary care and with no obvious liver disease. Further investigations may be dangerous for the patient and expensive for Health Services. The aims of this study are to determine the natural history of abnormalities in LFTs before overt liver disease presents in the population and identify those who require minimal further investigations with the potential for reduction in NHS costs. METHODS/DESIGN: A population-based retrospective cohort study will follow up all those who have had an incident liver function test (LFT) in primary care to subsequent liver disease or mortality over a period of 15 years (approx. 2.3 million tests in 99,000 people). The study is set in Primary Care in the region of Tayside, Scotland (pop approx. 429,000) between 1989 and 2003. The target population consists of patients with no recorded clinical signs or symptoms of liver disease and registered with a GP. The health technologies being assessed are LFTs, viral and auto-antibody tests, ultrasound, CT, MRI and liver biopsy. The study will utilise the Epidemiology of Liver Disease In Tayside (ELDIT) database to determine the outcomes of liver disease. These are based on hospital admission data (Scottish Morbidity Record 1), dispensed medication records, death certificates, and examination of medical records from Tayside hospitals. A sample of patients (n = 150) with recent initial ALF tests or invitation to biopsy will complete questionnaires to obtain quality of life data and anxiety measures. Cost-effectiveness and cost utility Markov model analyses will be performed from health service and patient perspectives using standard NHS costs. The findings will also be used to develop a computerised clinical decision support tool. DISCUSSION: The results of this study will be widely disseminated to primary care, as well as G.I. hospital specialists through publications and presentations at local and national meetings and the project website. This will facilitate optimal decision-making both for the benefit of the patient and the National Health Service.

The PRECIS-2 tool has good interrater reliability and modest discriminant validity.

OBJECTIVES: PRagmatic Explanatory Continuum Indicator Summary (PRECIS)-2 is a tool that could improve design insight for trialists. Our aim was to validate the PRECIS-2 tool, unlike its predecessor, testing the discriminant validity and interrater reliability. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Over 80 international trialists, methodologists, clinicians, and policymakers created PRECIS-2 helping to ensure face validity and content validity. The interrater reliability of PRECIS-2 was measured using 19 experienced trialists who used PRECIS-2 to score a diverse sample of 15 randomized controlled trial protocols. Discriminant validity was tested with two raters to independently determine if the trial protocols were more pragmatic or more explanatory, with scores from the 19 raters for the 15 trials as predictors of pragmatism. RESULTS: Interrater reliability was generally good, with seven of nine domains having an intraclass correlation coefficient over 0.65. Flexibility (adherence) and recruitment had wide confidence intervals, but raters found these difficult to rate and wanted more information. Each of the nine PRECIS-2 domains could be used to differentiate between trials taking more pragmatic or more explanatory approaches with better than chance discrimination for all domains. CONCLUSION: We have assessed the validity and reliability of PRECIS-2. An elaboration study and web site provide guidance to help future users of the tool which is continuing to be tested by trial teams, systematic reviewers, and funders.

Cohort profile: the Scottish Research register SHARE. A register of people interested in research participation linked to NHS data sets.

PURPOSE: Recruitment to trials is often difficult. Many trials fail to meet recruitment targets resulting in underpowered studies which waste resources and the time of those who participated. While there is evidence that many people are willing to take part in research, particularly if it involves a condition from which they suffer, researchers are unable to easily contact such people often relying on busy clinicians to identify them. Many clinicians perceive themselves as too busy to take part in research activities. The Scottish Health Research Register SHARE adopts an approach which asks the public to consent to their data held in National Health Service databases to be used to determine their suitability for research projects. Additionally, participants can consent for spare blood, left after routine venepuncture to be automatically identified in the laboratory and stored for future research studies. PARTICIPANTS: Anyone over the age of 16 years in Scotland can participate. Participants are approached through a range of methods including directly at outpatient clinics and general practitioners practices, leaflets with hospital letters and personal email from employers. FINDINGS TO DATE: SHARE has recruited around 130 000 people. SHARE has demonstrated that it can quickly and efficiently recruit to studies, over 20 until now. In addition, it can be used to administer questionnaire studies by email and recruit to patient and public involvement groups. FUTURE PLANS: SHARE continues to steadily recruit with the ambition of eventually achieving 1 000 000 people in Scotland. We are steadily increasing the number of data sets we use for identifying participants. We are adding a mobile app which will facilitate dissemination about research and allow the collection of physiological and activity data if desired. We anticipate that SHARE will soon become the main source of health research recruitment in Scotland.