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Ozone pollution is profoundly modulated by meteorological features such as temperature, air pressure, wind, and humidity. While many studies have developed empirical models to elucidate the effects of meteorology on ozone variability, they predominantly focus on local weather conditions, overlooking the influences from high-altitude and broader regional meteorological patterns. Here, we employ convolutional neural networks (CNNs), a technique typically applied to image recognition, to investigate the influence of three-dimensional spatial variations in meteorological fields on the daily, seasonal, and interannual dynamics of ozone in Shenzhen, a major coastal urban center in China. Our optimized CNNs model, covering a 13° × 13° spatial domain, effectively explains over 70% of daily ozone variability, outperforming alternative empirical approaches by 7 to 62%. Model interpretations reveal the crucial roles of 2-m temperature and humidity as primary drivers, contributing 16% and 15% to daily ozone fluctuations, respectively. Regional wind fields account for up to 40% of ozone changes during the episodes. CNNs successfully replicate observed ozone temporal patterns, attributing -5-6 µg·m-3 of interannual ozone variability to weather anomalies. Our interpretable CNNs framework enables quantitative attribution of historical ozone fluctuations to nonlinear meteorological effects across spatiotemporal scales, offering vital process-based insights for managing megacity air quality amidst changing climate regimes.
Assuntos
Redes Neurais de Computação , Ozônio , Ozônio/análise , China , Monitoramento Ambiental , Estações do Ano , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Poluentes AtmosféricosRESUMO
The iron and steel industry (ISI) is important for socio-economic progress but emits greenhouse gases and air pollutants detrimental to climate and human health. Understanding its historical emission trends and drivers is crucial for future warming and pollution interventions. Here, we offer an exhaustive analysis of global ISI emissions over the past 60 years, forecasting up to 2050. We evaluate emissions of carbon dioxide and conventional and unconventional air pollutants, including heavy metals and polychlorinated dibenzodioxins and dibenzofurans. Based on this newly established inventory, we dissect the determinants of past emission trends and future trajectories. Results show varied trends for different pollutants. Specifically, PM2.5 emissions decreased consistently during the period 1970 to 2000, attributed to adoption of advanced production technologies. Conversely, NOx and SO2 began declining recently due to stringent controls in major contributors such as China, a trend expected to persist. Currently, end-of-pipe abatement technologies are key to PM2.5 reduction, whereas process modifications are central to CO2 mitigation. Projections suggest that by 2050, developing nations (excluding China) will contribute 52-54% of global ISI PM2.5 emissions, a rise from 29% in 2019. Long-term emission curtailment will necessitate the innovation and widespread adoption of new production and abatement technologies in emerging economies worldwide.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Humanos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Ferro , Material Particulado/análise , Aço , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , ChinaRESUMO
Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP) is an idiopathic disease that occurs during mid-to-late pregnancy and is associated with various adverse pregnancy outcomes, including intrauterine fetal demise. However, since the underlying cause of ICP remains unclear, there is an ongoing debate on the phenotyping criteria used in the diagnostic process. Here, we identified single- and multi-symptomatic ICP (ICP-S and ICP-M) in 104,221 Chinese females from the ZEBRA maternity cohort, with the objective of exploring the risk implications of the two phenotypes on pregnancy outcomes and from environmental exposures. We employed multivariate binary logistic regression to estimate confounder-adjusted odds ratios and found that ICP-M was more strongly associated with preterm birth and low birth weight compared to ICP-S. Throughout pregnancy, incremental exposure to PM2.5, O3, and greenness could alter ICP risks by 17.3%, 12.5%, and -2.3%, respectively, with more substantial associations observed with ICP-M than with ICP-S. The major scientific advancements lie in the elucidation of synergistic risk interactions between pollutants and the protective antagonistic effects of greenness, as well as highlighting the risk impact of preconceptional environmental exposures. Our study, conducted in the context of the "three-child policy" in China, provides epidemiological evidence for policy-making to safeguard maternal and neonatal health.
Assuntos
Colestase Intra-Hepática , Nascimento Prematuro , Gravidez , Recém-Nascido , Feminino , Humanos , Resultado da Gravidez/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , População do Leste Asiático , Nascimento Prematuro/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental , Colestase Intra-Hepática/epidemiologia , Colestase Intra-Hepática/complicaçõesRESUMO
Air pollution exerts crucial influence on crop yields and impacts regional and global food supplies. Here we employ a statistical model using satellite-based observations and flexible functional forms to analyse the synergistic effects of reductions in ozone and aerosols on China's food security. The model consistently shows that ozone is detrimental to crops, whereas aerosol has variable effects. China's maize, rice and wheat yields are projected to increase by 7.84%, 4.10% and 3.43%, respectively, upon reaching two air quality targets (60 µg m-3 for peak-season ozone and 35 µg m-3 for annual fine particulate matter). Average calories produced from these crops would surge by 4.51%, potentially allowing China to attain grain self-sufficiency 2 years earlier than previously estimated. These results show that ozone pollution control should be a high priority to increase staple crop edible calories, and future stringent air pollution regulations would enhance China's food security.
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Poluição do Ar , Ozônio , Melhoria de Qualidade , Poluição do Ar/prevenção & controle , Ozônio/análise , Produtos Agrícolas , China , Segurança AlimentarRESUMO
As an important psychoactive substance, cotinine is ubiquitous in aquatic environment and poses a threat to aquatic organisms. However, the mechanism of its adverse health impacts remains unclear. We evaluated the effects of cotinine exposure at environmentally relevant concentrations on the development and locomotor behavior of zebrafish (Danio rerio) larvae using neurotransmitters and whole endogenous metabolism. Mild developmental toxicity and significant neurobehavior disorder, such as spontaneous movement (1-1000 µg/L), 48 hpf tactile response (50, 100, and 1000 µg/L), and 144 hpf swimming speed (1, 10, 100, 500, and 1000 µg/L), were observed in zebrafish. Exposure to cotinine led to significant alterations in 11 neurotransmitters, including homogentisic acid, serotonin, glutamic acid and aspartic acid, etc. 298 metabolites were identified and two pathways - linoleic acid metabolism and taurine and hypotaurine metabolism - were delineated. In addition, amino acid neurotransmitters were significantly correlated with metabolites such as arachidonic acid as well as its derivatives, steroidal compounds, and amino acids. Serotonin demonstrates a noteworthy correlation with 31 out of 40 differentially expressed neurotransmitters, encompassing lipids, amino acids, and other compounds. These novel findings contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the ecological risks associated with cotinine contamination in surface waters.
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Poluentes Químicos da Água , Peixe-Zebra , Animais , Peixe-Zebra/metabolismo , Cotinina , Serotonina , Larva , Aminoácidos/metabolismo , Neurotransmissores/metabolismo , Poluentes Químicos da Água/metabolismo , Embrião não MamíferoRESUMO
Emerging epidemiological studies suggest that long-term ozone (O3) exposure may increase the risk of mortality, while pre-existing evidence is mixed and has been generated predominantly in North America and Europe. In this study, we investigated the impact of long-term O3 exposure on all-cause mortality in a national cohort in China. A dynamic cohort of 20882 participants aged ≥40 years was recruited between 2011 and 2018 from four waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. A Cox proportional hazard regression model with time-varying exposures on an annual scale was used to estimate the mortality risk associated with warm-season (April-September) O3 exposure. The annual average level of participant exposure to warm-season O3 concentrations was 100 µg m-3 (range: 61-142 µg m-3). An increase of 10 µg m-3 in O3 was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.18 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-1.23) for all-cause mortality. Compared with the first exposure quartile of O3, HRs of mortality associated with the second, third, and highest exposure quartiles were 1.09 (95% CI: 0.95-1.25), 1.02 (95% CI: 0.88-1.19), and 1.56 (95% CI: 1.34-1.82), respectively. A J-shaped concentration-response association was observed, revealing a non-significant increase in risk below a concentration of approximately 110 µg m-3. Low-temperature-exposure residents had a higher risk of mortality associated with long-term O3 exposure. This study expands current epidemiological evidence from China and reveals that high-concentration O3 exposure curtails the long-term survival of middle-aged and older adults.
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BACKGROUND: Cohort evidence linking long-term survival with exposure to multiple air pollutants (e.g., fine particulate matter [PM2.5] and ozone) was extensively sparse in low- and middle-income countries, especially among older adults. This study aimed to investigate potential associations of long-term exposures to PM2.5 and ozone with all-cause mortality in Chinese older adults. METHODS: A dynamic nationwide prospective cohort comprising 20,352 adults aged ≥65 years were enrolled from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study and followed up through 2005-2018. Participants' annual exposures to warm-season ozone and year-round PM2.5 were assigned using satellite-derived spatiotemporal estimates. A directed acyclic graph (DAG) was developed to identify confounding variables. Associations of annual mean exposures to PM2.5 and ozone with mortality were evaluated using single- and two-pollutant Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for time-dependent individual risk factors and ambient temperature. RESULTS: During 100 thousand person-years of follow-up (median: 3.6 years), a total of 14,313 death events occurred. The participants were averagely aged 87.1 years at baseline and exposed to a wide range of annual average concentrations of warm-season maximum 8-hour ozone (mean, 54.4 ppb; range, 23.3-81.6 ppb) and year-round PM2.5 (mean, 65.5 µg/m3; range, 10.1-162.9 µg/m3). Approximately linear concentration-response relationship was identified for ozone, whereas significant increases in PM2.5-associated mortality risks were observed only when concentrations were above 60 µg/m3. Rises of 10 ppb in ozone and 10 µg/m3 in PM2.5 above 60 µg/m3 were associated with increases in all-cause mortality of 13.2% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 10.2-16.2%) and 6.2% (95% CI: 4.6-7.7%) in DAG-based single-pollutant model, and of 9.7% (95% CI: 6.6-13.0%) and 5.3% (95% CI: 3.7-6.9%) in DAG-based two-pollutant model, respectively. We detected significant effect modification by temperature in associations of mortality with ozone (P <0.001 for interaction), suggesting greater ozone-related risks among participants in warmer locations. CONCLUSIONS: This study provided longitudinal evidence that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 and ozone significantly and independently contributed to elevated risks of all-cause mortality among older adults in China.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Ozônio , Humanos , Idoso , Ozônio/toxicidade , Ozônio/análise , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Estudos Prospectivos , População do Leste Asiático , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Material Particulado/análise , Estudos de CoortesRESUMO
Ever-increasing ambient ozone (O3) pollution in China has been exacerbating cardiopulmonary premature deaths. However, the urban-rural exposure inequity has seldom been explored. Here, we assess population-scale O3 exposure and mortality burdens between 1990 and 2019 based on integrated pollution tracking and epidemiological evidence. We find Chinese population have been suffering from climbing O3 exposure by 4.3 ± 2.8 ppb per decade as a result of rapid urbanization and growing prosperity of socioeconomic activities. Rural residents are broadly exposed to 9.8 ± 4.1 ppb higher ambient O3 than the adjacent urban citizens, and thus urbanization-oriented migration compromises the exposure-associated mortality on total population. Cardiopulmonary excess premature deaths attributable to long-term O3 exposure, 373,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 240,600-510,900) in 2019, is underestimated in previous studies due to ignorance of cardiovascular causes. Future O3 pollution policy should focus more on rural population who are facing an aggravating threat of mortality risks to ameliorate environmental health injustice.
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Exposure measurement error is an important source of bias in epidemiological studies. We assessed the validity of employing ambient (outdoor) measurements as proxies of personal exposures at individual levels focusing on fine particles (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC)/elemental carbon (EC) on a global scale. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis and searched databases (ISI Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE®, Ovid Embase, and Ovid BIOSIS) to retrieve observational studies in English language published from 1 January 2006 until 5 May 2021. Correlation coefficients (r) between paired ambient (outdoor) concentration and personal exposure for PM2.5 or BC/EC were standardized as effect size. We used random-effects meta-analyses to pool the correlation coefficients and investigated the causes of heterogeneity and publication bias. Furthermore, we employed subgroup and meta-regression analyses to evaluate the modification of pooled estimates by potential mediators. This systematic review identified thirty-two observational studies involving 1744 subjects from ten countries, with 28 studies for PM2.5 and 11 studies for BC/EC. Personal PM2.5 exposure is more strongly correlated with ambient (outdoor) concentrations (0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57-0.68) than personal BC/EC exposure (0.49, 95% CI: 0.38-0.59), with significant differences in r (0.14, 95% CI: 0.03-0.25; p < 0.05). The results demonstrated that the health status of participants was a significant modifier of pooled correlations. In addition, the personal to ambient (P/A) ratio for PM2.5 and average ambient BC/EC levels were potential effect moderators of the pooled r. The funnel plots and Egger's regression test indicated inevident publication bias. The pooled estimates were robust through sensitivity analyses. The results support the growing consensus that the validity coefficient of proxy measures should be addressed when interpreting results from epidemiological studies to better understand how strong health outcomes are affected by different levels of PM2.5 and their components.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Carbono/análise , Bases de Dados Factuais , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Humanos , Material Particulado/análise , Análise de Regressão , Fuligem/análiseRESUMO
Long-term ozone (O3) exposure may lead to non-communicable diseases and increase mortality risk. However, cohort-based studies are relatively rare, and inconsistent exposure metrics impair the credibility of epidemiological evidence synthetization. To provide more accurate meta-estimations, this study updates existing systematic reviews by including recent studies and summarizing the quantitative associations between O3 exposure and cause-specific mortality risks, based on unified exposure metrics. Cross-metric conversion factors were estimated linearly by decadal observations during 1990-2019. The Hunter-Schmidt random-effects estimator was applied to pool the relative risks. A total of 25 studies involving 226,453,067 participants (14 unique cohorts covering 99,855,611 participants) were included in the systematic review. After linearly unifying the inconsistent O3 exposure metrics , the pooled relative risks associated with every 10 nmol mol-1 (ppbV) incremental O3 exposure, by mean of the warm-season daily maximum 8-h average metric, were as follows: 1.014 with 95% confidence interval (CI) ranging 1.009-1.019 for all-cause mortality; 1.025 (95% CI: 1.010-1.040) for respiratory mortality; 1.056 (95% CI: 1.029-1.084) for COPD mortality; 1.019 (95% CI: 1.004-1.035) for cardiovascular mortality; and 1.074 (95% CI: 1.054-1.093) for congestive heart failure mortality. Insignificant mortality risk associations were found for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, and lung cancer. Adjustment for exposure metrics laid a solid foundation for multi-study meta-analysis, and widening coverage of surface O3 observations is expected to strengthen the cross-metric conversion in the future. Ever-growing numbers of epidemiological studies supported the evidence for considerable cardiopulmonary hazards and all-cause mortality risks from long-term O3 exposure. However, evidence of long-term O3 exposure-associated health effects was still scarce, so more relevant studies are needed to cover more populations with regional diversity.