Performance of American Gastroenterological Association Clinical Care Pathway for the risk stratification of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the US population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) recently launched the Clinical Care Pathway for the Risk Stratification and Management of Patients with NAFLD to identify adults with significant fibrosis. We aimed to examine this pathway's performance in the US population. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Using the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data, we identified participants aged ≥18 with available Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in the absence of other liver diseases. Based on the AGA clinical pathway, FIB-4 < 1.3 and LSM < 8 kilopascals (kPa) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) are associated with low risk of significant fibrosis. Using these cutoffs, we examined the pathway performance using negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) and explored alternative risk-stratification strategies. There were 2322 participants with available data (projected to 94.2 million US adults). The NPV of LSM ≥ 8 kPa among those with FIB-4 < 1.3 was 90%, whereas the PPV among those with FIB-4 1.3-2.67 was 13%. As diabetes was a strong predictor of fibrosis, we propose a simple, alternative strategy to eliminate the indeterminate FIB-4 range and perform VCTE in those with FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 and diabetes. This strategy would decrease the number of VCTEs from 14.5 to 4.9 million and increase PPV from 13% to 33% without compromising the NPV among those who did not undergo VCTE. CONCLUSION: The implementation of the current AGA clinical pathway would lead to overutilization of VCTE. An alternative strategy using FIB-4 ≥ 1.3 and diabetes to select adults undergoing second-line testing will improve this pathway's performance and minimize unnecessary VCTEs.

Change in serial liver stiffness measurement by magnetic resonance elastography and outcomes in NAFLD.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The impact of disease progression in NAFLD on liver outcomes remains poorly understood. We aimed to investigate NAFLD progression using longitudinal liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by serial magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) and the association with liver outcomes. APPROACH AND RESULTS: All adult patients with NAFLD who underwent at least two serial MREs for clinical evaluation at Mayo Clinic, Rochester, between 2007 and 2019 were identified from the institutional database. Progression and regression were defined based on LSM change of 19% above or below 19% of initial LSM, respectively, based on Quantitative Imaging Biomarker Alliance consensus. The association between change in LSM and liver-related outcomes occurring after the last MRE was examined using time-to-event analysis. A total of 128 participants underwent serial MREs (53% female, median age 59 years). The median time between paired MREs was 3.4 (range 1-10.7) years. NAFLD progression (LSM = +0.61 kPa/year) was identified in 17 patients (13.3%). NAFLD regression (-0.40 kPa/year) occurred in 35 patients (27.3%). Stable LSM was noted in 76 participants (59.4%). In NAFLD without cirrhosis at baseline ( n = 75), cirrhosis development occurred in 14% of LSM progressors and 2.9% of non-progressors ( p = 0.059) over a median 2.7 years of follow-up from the last MRE. Among those with compensated cirrhosis at baseline MRE ( n = 29), decompensation or death occurred in 100% of LSM progressors and 19% of non-progressors ( p < 0.001) over a median 2.5 years of follow-up after the last MRE. CONCLUSIONS: Noninvasive monitoring of LSM by conventional MRE is a promising method of longitudinal NAFLD monitoring and risk estimation of liver-related outcomes in NAFLD.

Head-to-head comparison of magnetic resonance elastography-based liver stiffness, fat fraction, and T1 relaxation time in identifying at-risk NASH.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The presence of at-risk NASH is associated with an increased risk of cirrhosis and complications. Therefore, noninvasive identification of at-risk NASH with an accurate biomarker is a critical need for pharmacologic therapy. We aim to explore the performance of several magnetic resonance (MR)-based imaging parameters in diagnosing at-risk NASH. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This prospective clinical trial (NCT02565446) includes 104 paired MR examinations and liver biopsies performed in patients with suspected or diagnosed NAFLD. Magnetic resonance elastography-assessed liver stiffness (LS), 6-point Dixon-derived proton density fat fraction (PDFF), and single-point saturation-recovery acquisition-calculated T1 relaxation time were explored. Among all predictors, LS showed the significantly highest accuracy in diagnosing at-risk NASH [AUC LS : 0.89 (0.82, 0.95), AUC PDFF : 0.70 (0.58, 0.81), AUC T1 : 0.72 (0.61, 0.82), z -score test z >1.96 for LS vs any of others]. The optimal cutoff value of LS to identify at-risk NASH patients was 3.3 kPa (sensitivity: 79%, specificity: 82%, negative predictive value: 91%), whereas the optimal cutoff value of T1 was 850 ms (sensitivity: 75%, specificity: 63%, and negative predictive value: 87%). PDFF had the highest performance in diagnosing NASH with any fibrosis stage [AUC PDFF : 0.82 (0.72, 0.91), AUC LS : 0.73 (0.63, 0.84), AUC T1 : 0.72 (0.61, 0.83), |z| <1.96 for all]. CONCLUSION: Magnetic resonance elastography-assessed LS alone outperformed PDFF, and T1 in identifying patients with at-risk NASH for therapeutic trials.

Predicting amyloid PET and tau PET stages with plasma biomarkers.

Staging the severity of Alzheimer's disease pathology using biomarkers is useful for therapeutic trials and clinical prognosis. Disease staging with amyloid and tau PET has face validity; however, this would be more practical with plasma biomarkers. Our objectives were, first, to examine approaches for staging amyloid and tau PET and, second, to examine prediction of amyloid and tau PET stages using plasma biomarkers. Participants (n = 1136) were enrolled in either the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging or the Alzheimer's Disease Research Center; had a concurrent amyloid PET, tau PET and blood draw; and met clinical criteria for cognitively unimpaired (n = 864), mild cognitive impairment (n = 148) or Alzheimer's clinical syndrome with dementia (n = 124). The latter two groups were combined into a cognitively impaired group (n = 272). We used multinomial regression models to estimate discrimination [concordance (C) statistics] among three amyloid PET stages (low, intermediate, high), four tau PET stages (Braak 0, 1-2, 3-4, 5-6) and a combined amyloid and tau PET stage (none/low versus intermediate/high severity) using plasma biomarkers as predictors separately within unimpaired and impaired individuals. Plasma analytes, p-tau181, Aß1-42 and Aß1-40 (analysed as the Aß42/Aß40 ratio), glial fibrillary acidic protein and neurofilament light chain were measured on the HD-X Simoa Quanterix platform. Plasma p-tau217 was also measured in a subset (n = 355) of cognitively unimpaired participants using the Lilly Meso Scale Discovery assay. Models with all Quanterix plasma analytes along with risk factors (age, sex and APOE) most often provided the best discrimination among amyloid PET stages (C = 0.78-0.82). Models with p-tau181 provided similar discrimination of tau PET stages to models with all four plasma analytes (C = 0.72-0.85 versus C = 0.73-0.86). Discriminating a PET proxy of intermediate/high from none/low Alzheimer's disease neuropathological change with all four Quanterix plasma analytes was excellent but not better than p-tau181 only (C = 0.88 versus 0.87 for unimpaired and C = 0.91 versus 0.90 for impaired). Lilly p-tau217 outperformed the Quanterix p-tau181 assay for discriminating high versus intermediate amyloid (C = 0.85 versus 0.74) but did not improve over a model with all Quanterix plasma analytes and risk factors (C = 0.85 versus 0.83). Plasma analytes along with risk factors can discriminate between amyloid and tau PET stages and between a PET surrogate for intermediate/high versus none/low neuropathological change with accuracy in the acceptable to excellent range. Combinations of plasma analytes are better than single analytes for many staging predictions with the exception that Quanterix p-tau181 alone usually performed equivalently to combinations of Quanterix analytes for tau PET discrimination.

Assessing Performance and Clinical Usefulness in Prediction Models With Survival Outcomes: Practical Guidance for Cox Proportional Hazards Models.

Risk prediction models need thorough validation to assess their performance. Validation of models for survival outcomes poses challenges due to the censoring of observations and the varying time horizon at which predictions can be made. This article describes measures to evaluate predictions and the potential improvement in decision making from survival models based on Cox proportional hazards regression.As a motivating case study, the authors consider the prediction of the composite outcome of recurrence or death (the "event") in patients with breast cancer after surgery. They developed a simple Cox regression model with 3 predictors, as in the Nottingham Prognostic Index, in 2982 women (1275 events over 5 years of follow-up) and externally validated this model in 686 women (285 events over 5 years). Improvement in performance was assessed after the addition of progesterone receptor as a prognostic biomarker.The model predictions can be evaluated across the full range of observed follow-up times or for the event occurring by the end of a fixed time horizon of interest. The authors first discuss recommended statistical measures that evaluate model performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, or overall performance. Further, they evaluate the potential clinical utility of the model to support clinical decision making according to a net benefit measure. They provide SAS and R code to illustrate internal and external validation.The authors recommend the proposed set of performance measures for transparent reporting of the validity of predictions from survival models.

Modeling the temporal evolution of plasma p-tau in relation to amyloid beta and tau PET.

INTRODUCTION: The timing of plasma biomarker changes is not well understood. The goal of this study was to evaluate the temporal co-evolution of plasma and positron emission tomography (PET) Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers. METHODS: We included 1408 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging and Alzheimer's Disease Research Center participants. An accelerated failure time (AFT) model was fit with amyloid beta (Aß) PET, tau PET, plasma p-tau217, p-tau181, and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) as endpoints. RESULTS: Individual timing of plasma p-tau progression was strongly associated with Aß PET and GFAP progression. In the population, GFAP became abnormal first, then Aß PET, plasma p-tau, and tau PET temporal meta-regions of interest when applying cut points based on young, cognitively unimpaired participants. DISCUSSION: Plasma p-tau is a stronger indicator of a temporally linked response to elevated brain Aß than of tau pathology. While Aß deposition and a rise in GFAP are upstream events associated with tau phosphorylation, the temporal link between p-tau and Aß PET was the strongest. HIGHLIGHTS: Plasma p-tau progression was more strongly associated with Aß than tau PET. Progression on plasma p-tau was associated with Aß PET and GFAP progression. P-tau181 and p-tau217 become abnormal after Aß PET and before tau PET. GFAP became abnormal first, before plasma p-tau and Aß PET.

Comparison of plasma biomarkers and amyloid PET for predicting memory decline in cognitively unimpaired individuals.

BACKGROUND: We compared the ability of several plasma biomarkers versus amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) to predict rates of memory decline among cognitively unimpaired individuals. METHODS: We studied 645 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging participants. Predictor variables were age, sex, education, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype, amyloid PET, and plasma amyloid beta (Aß)42/40, phosphorylated tau (p-tau)181, neurofilament light (NfL), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and p-tau217. The outcome was a change in a memory composite measure. RESULTS: All plasma biomarkers, except NfL, were associated with mean memory decline in models with individual biomarkers. However, amyloid PET and plasma p-tau217, along with age, were key variables independently associated with mean memory decline in models combining all predictors. Confidence intervals were narrow for estimates of population mean prediction, but person-level prediction intervals were wide. DISCUSSION: Plasma p-tau217 and amyloid PET provide useful information about predicting rates of future cognitive decline in cognitively unimpaired individuals at the population mean level, but not at the individual person level.

CS-iCCA, A New Clinically Based Staging System for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Establishment and External Validation.

INTRODUCTION: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a primary liver malignancy with poor prognosis. Current prognostic methods are most accurate for patients with surgically resectable disease. However, a significant proportion of patients with iCCA are not surgical candidates. We aimed to develop a generalizable staging system based on clinical variables to determine prognosis of all patients with iCCA. METHODS: The derivation cohort included 436 patients with iCCA seen between 2000 and 2011. For external validation, 249 patients with iCCA seen from 2000 to 2014 were enrolled. Survival analysis was performed to identify prognostic predictors. All-cause mortality was the primary end point. RESULTS: Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, tumor number, tumor size, metastasis, albumin, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 were incorporated into a 4-stage algorithm. Kaplan-Meier estimates for 1-year survival were 87.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76.1-99.7), 72.7% (95% CI 63.4-83.4), 48.0% (95% CI 41.2-56.0), and 16% (95% CI 11-23.5), respectively, for stages I, II, III, and IV. Univariate analysis yielded significant differences in risk of death for stages II (hazard ratio [HR] 1.71; 95% CI 1.0-2.8), III (HR 3.32; 95% CI 2.07-5.31), and IV (HR 7.44; 95% CI 4.61-12.01) compared with stage I (reference). Concordance indices showed the new staging system was superior to the TNM staging for predicting mortality in the derivation cohort, P < 0.0001. In the validation cohort, however, the difference between the 2 staging systems was not significant. DISCUSSION: The proposed independently validated staging system uses nonhistopathologic data to successfully stratify patients into 4 stages. This staging system has better prognostic accuracy compared with the TNM staging and can assist physicians and patients in treatment of iCCA.

Clinical course of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the implications for clinical trial design.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The predicted risk and timeline to progression to liver-related outcomes in the population with NAFLD are not well-characterized. We aimed to examine the risk and time to progression to cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation and death in a contemporary population over a long follow-up period, to obtain information to guide endpoint selection and sample size calculations for clinical trials on NAFLD-related cirrhosis. METHODS: This is a retrospective study of prospectively collected data in a medical record linkage system, including all adults diagnosed with NAFLD between 1996-2016 by clinical, biochemical and radiological criteria in Olmsted County, Minnesota and followed until 2019. Liver-related outcomes and death were ascertained and validated by individual medical record review. Time and risk of progression from NAFLD to cirrhosis to decompensation and death were assessed using multistate modeling. RESULTS: A total of 5,123 individuals with NAFLD (median age 52 years, 53% women) were followed for a median of 6.4 (range 1-23) years. The risk of progression was as follows: from NAFLD to cirrhosis: 3% in 15 years; compensated cirrhosis to first decompensation: 33% in 4 years (8%/year); first decompensation to ≥2 decompensations: 48% in 2 years. Albumin, bilirubin, non-bleeding esophageal varices and diabetes were independent predictors of decompensation. Among the 575 deaths, 6% were liver related. Therapeutic trials in compensated cirrhosis would require enrolment of a minimum of 2,886 individuals followed for >2 years to detect at least a 15% relative decrease in liver-related endpoints. CONCLUSION: In this population-based cohort with 23 years of longitudinal follow-up, NAFLD was slowly progressive, with liver-related outcomes affecting only a small proportion of people. Large sample sizes and long follow-up are required to detect reductions in liver-related endpoints in clinical trials. LAY SUMMARY: For patients with compensated non-alcoholic steatohepatitis-related cirrhosis, the time spent in this state and the risk of progression to decompensation are not well-known in the population. We examined the clinical course of a large population-based cohort over 23 years of follow-up. We identified that adults with compensated cirrhosis spend a mean time of 4 years in this state and have a 10% per year risk of progression to decompensation or death. The risk of further progression is 3-fold higher in adults with cirrhosis and one decompensating event. These results are reflective of placebo arm risks in drug clinical trials and are essential in the estimation of adequate sample sizes.

Natural History of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease With Normal Body Mass Index: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The natural history of lean nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is not well-understood. Consequently, patient counseling and disease management are limited. We aimed to compare the natural history of lean, overweight, and obese NAFLD in a U.S. population with long-term follow-up. METHODS: All adults diagnosed with NAFLD in Olmsted County, MN between 1996 and 2016 were identified, and all subsequent medical events were ascertained using a medical record linkage system. Subjects were divided on the basis of body mass index (BMI) at NAFLD diagnosis into 3 groups: normal, overweight, and obese. The probability to develop cirrhosis, decompensation, malignancies, cardiovascular events, or death among the 3 groups was estimated by using the Aalen-Johansen method, treating death as a competing risk. The impact of BMI categories on these outcomes was explored by using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 4834 NAFLD individuals were identified: 414 normal BMI, 1189 overweight, and 3231 obese. Normal BMI NAFLD individuals were characterized by a higher proportion of women (66% vs 47%) and lower prevalence of metabolic comorbidities than the other 2 groups. In reference to obese, those with normal BMI NAFLD had a nonsignificant trend toward lower risk of cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR], 0.33, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1-1.05). There were no significant differences in the risk of decompensation (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.11-5.79), cardiovascular events (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.73-1.51), or malignancy (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.51-1.48). Compared with obese, normal BMI NAFLD had higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.52-2.51). CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD with normal BMI is associated with a healthier metabolic profile and possibly a lower risk of liver disease progression but similar risk of cardiovascular disease and malignancy than obese NAFLD.

NIA-AA Alzheimer's Disease Framework: Clinical Characterization of Stages.

BACKGROUND: To operationalize the National Institute on Aging - Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) Research Framework for Alzheimer's Disease 6-stage continuum of clinical progression for persons with abnormal amyloid. METHODS: The Mayo Clinic Study of Aging is a population-based longitudinal study of aging and cognitive impairment in Olmsted County, Minnesota. We evaluated persons without dementia having 3 consecutive clinical visits. Measures for cross-sectional categories included objective cognitive impairment (OBJ) and function (FXN). Measures for change included subjective cognitive impairment (SCD), objective cognitive change (ΔOBJ), and new onset of neurobehavioral symptoms (ΔNBS). We calculated frequencies of the stages using different cutoff points and assessed stability of the stages over 15 months. RESULTS: Among 243 abnormal amyloid participants, the frequencies of the stages varied with age: 66 to 90% were classified as stage 1 at age 50 but at age 80, 24 to 36% were stage 1, 32 to 47% were stage 2, 18 to 27% were stage 3, 1 to 3% were stage 4 to 6, and 3 to 9% were indeterminate. Most stage 2 participants were classified as stage 2 because of abnormal ΔOBJ only (44-59%), whereas 11 to 21% had SCD only, and 9 to 13% had ΔNBS only. Short-term stability varied by stage and OBJ cutoff points but the most notable changes were seen in stage 2 with 38 to 63% remaining stable, 4 to 13% worsening, and 24 to 41% improving (moving to stage 1). INTERPRETATION: The frequency of the stages varied by age and the precise membership fluctuated by the parameters used to define the stages. The staging framework may require revisions before it can be adopted for clinical trials. ANN NEUROL 2021;89:1145-1156.

Prognostic utility of systemic inflammatory markers and chronic hepatitis C virus infection status in hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with local ablation.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has high incidence and mortality worldwide. Local ablation using radiofrequency ablation (RFA) or microwave ablation (MWA) is potentially curative for early-stage HCC with outcomes comparable to surgical resection. We explored the influence of demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors on outcomes of HCC patients receiving ablation. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 221 HCC patients receiving local ablation at Mayo Clinic between January 2000 and October 2018, comprising 140 RFA and 81 MWA. Prognostic factors determining overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were identified using multivariate analysis. RESULTS: There was no clinically significant difference in OS or DFS between RFA and MWA. In multivariate analysis of OS, pre-ablation lymphocyte-monocyte ratio [Hazard ratio (HR) 0.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.84, P = 0.0001], MELD score [HR 1.12, 95%CI 1.068-1.17, P <  0.0001], tumor number [HR 1.23, 95%CI 1.041-1.46, P = 0.015] and tumor size [HR 1.18, 95%CI 1.015-1.37, P = 0.031] were clinically-significant prognostic factors. Among HCC patients with chronic hepatitis C (HCV) infection, positive HCV PCR at HCC diagnosis was associated with 1.4-fold higher hazard of death, with 5-year survival of 32.8% vs 53.6% in HCV PCR-negative patients. Regarding DFS, pre-ablation lymphocyte-monocyte ratio [HR 0.77, 95%CI 0.66-0.9, P = 0.001], MELD score [HR 1.06, 95%CI 1.022-1.11, P = 0.002], Log2 AFP [HR 1.11, 95%CI 1.033-1.2, P = 0.005], tumor number [HR 1.29, 95%CI 1.078-1.53, P = 0.005] and tumor size [HR 1.25, 95%CI 1.043-1.51 P = 0.016] were independently prognostic. CONCLUSIONS: Pre-ablation systemic inflammation represented by lymphocyte-monocyte ratio is significantly associated with OS and DFS in HCC patients treated with local ablation. HCV viremia is associated with poor OS. Tumor biology represented by tumor number and size are strongly prognostic for OS and DFS while AFP is significantly associated with DFS only.

Liver stiffness measurement by magnetic resonance elastography is not affected by hepatic steatosis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relationship between biopsy-assessed hepatic steatosis, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-assessed proton density fat fraction (PDFF), and magnetic resonance elastography (MRE)-assessed liver stiffness measurement (LSM), in patients with or at risk for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: A retrospective study was performed, encompassing 256 patients who had a liver biopsy and MRI/MRE examination performed within 1 year. Clinical and laboratory data were retrieved from the electronic medical record. Hepatic steatosis and fibrosis were assessed by histopathological grading/staging. First, we analyzed the diagnostic performance of PDFF for distinguishing hepatic steatosis with the receiver operating characteristic analyses. Second, variables influencing LSM were screened with univariant analyses, then identified with multivariable linear regression. Finally, the potential relationship between PDFF and LSM was assessed with linear regression after adjustment for other influencing factors, in patients with diagnosed steatosis (PDFF ≥ 5%). RESULTS: The diagnostic accuracy of PDFF in distinguishing steatosis grades (S0-3) was above 0.82. No significant difference in LSM was found between patients with S1, S2, and S3 steatosis and between all steatosis grades after patients were grouped according to fibrosis stage. No statistically significant relationship was found between the LSM and PDFF (estimate = - 0.02, p = 0.065) after adjustment for fibrosis stage and age in patients with diagnosed steatosis (PDFF ≥ 5%). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NAFLD, the severity of hepatic steatosis has no significant influence on the liver stiffness measurement with magnetic resonance elastography. KEY POINTS: • The MRI-based proton density fat fraction provides a quantitative assessment of hepatic steatosis with high accuracy. • No significant effect of hepatic steatosis on MRE-based liver stiffness measurement was found in patients with S1, S2, and S3 steatosis and between all steatosis grades after patients were grouped according to fibrosis stage. • After adjusting for fibrosis stage and age, there was no statistically significant relationship between liver stiffness and proton density fat fraction in patients with hepatic steatosis (p = 0.065).

Relationships between ß-amyloid and tau in an elderly population: An accelerated failure time model.

Using positron emission tomography (PET)-derived amyloid and tau measurements from 1,495 participants, we explore the evolution of these values over time via an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. The AFT model assumes a shared pattern of progression, but one which is shifted earlier or later in time for each individual; an individual's time shift for amyloid and for tau are assumed to be linked. The resulting pattern for each outcome consists of an earlier indolent phase followed by sharp progression of the accumulation rate. APOE ε4 shifts the amyloid curve leftward (earlier) by 6.1 years, and the tau curve leftward by 2.6 years. Female sex shifts the amyloid curve leftward by 2.4 years and the tau curve leftward by 2.6 years. Per-person shifts (i.e., the individual's deviation from the population mean) for the onset of amyloid accumulation ranged from 13 years earlier to 13 years later (10th to 90th percentile) than average and 11 years earlier to 14 years later for tau, with an estimated correlation of 0.49. The average delay between amyloid increase and tau increase was 13.3 years.

Selecting software pipelines for change in flortaucipir SUVR: Balancing repeatability and group separation.

Since tau PET tracers were introduced, investigators have quantified them using a wide variety of automated methods. As longitudinal cohort studies acquire second and third time points of serial within-person tau PET data, determining the best pipeline to measure change has become crucial. We compared a total of 415 different quantification methods (each a combination of multiple options) according to their effects on a) differences in annual SUVR change between clinical groups, and b) longitudinal measurement repeatability as measured by the error term from a linear mixed-effects model. Our comparisons used MRI and Flortaucipir scans of 97 Mayo Clinic study participants who clinically either: a) were cognitively unimpaired, or b) had cognitive impairments that were consistent with Alzheimer's disease pathology. Tested methods included cross-sectional and longitudinal variants of two overarching pipelines (FreeSurfer 6.0, and an in-house pipeline based on SPM12), three choices of target region (entorhinal, inferior temporal, and a temporal lobe meta-ROI), five types of partial volume correction (PVC) (none, two-compartment, three-compartment, geometric transfer matrix (GTM), and a tau-specific GTM variant), seven choices of reference region (cerebellar crus, cerebellar gray matter, whole cerebellum, pons, supratentorial white matter, eroded supratentorial WM, and a composite of eroded supratentorial WM, pons, and whole cerebellum), two choices of region masking (GM or GM and WM), and two choices of statistic (voxel-wise mean vs. median). Our strongest findings were: 1) larger temporal-lobe target regions greatly outperformed entorhinal cortex (median sample size estimates based on a hypothetical clinical trial were 520-526 vs. 1740); 2) longitudinal processing pipelines outperformed cross-sectional pipelines (median sample size estimates were 483 vs. 572); and 3) reference regions including supratentorial WM outperformed traditional cerebellar and pontine options (median sample size estimates were 370 vs. 559). Altogether, our results favored longitudinally SUVR methods and a temporal-lobe meta-ROI that includes adjacent (juxtacortical) WM, a composite reference region (eroded supratentorial WM + pons + whole cerebellum), 2-class voxel-based PVC, and median statistics.

Associations of quantitative susceptibility mapping with Alzheimer's disease clinical and imaging markers.

Altered iron metabolism has been hypothesized to be associated with Alzheimer's disease pathology, and prior work has shown associations between iron load and beta amyloid plaques. Quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) is a recently popularized MR technique to infer local tissue susceptibility secondary to the presence of iron as well as other minerals. Greater QSM values imply greater iron concentration in tissue. QSM has been used to study relationships between cerebral iron load and established markers of Alzheimer's disease, however relationships remain unclear. In this work we study QSM signal characteristics and associations between susceptibility measured on QSM and established clinical and imaging markers of Alzheimer's disease. The study included 421 participants (234 male, median age 70 years, range 34-97 years) from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging and Alzheimer's Disease Research Center; 296 (70%) had a diagnosis of cognitively unimpaired, 69 (16%) mild cognitive impairment, and 56 (13%) amnestic dementia. All participants had multi-echo gradient recalled echo imaging, PiB amyloid PET, and Tauvid tau PET. Variance components analysis showed that variation in cortical susceptibility across participants was low. Linear regression models were fit to assess associations with regional susceptibility. Expected increases in susceptibility were found with older age and cognitive impairment in the deep and inferior gray nuclei (pallidum, putamen, substantia nigra, subthalamic nucleus) (betas: 0.0017 to 0.0053 ppm for a 10 year increase in age, p = 0.03 to <0.001; betas: 0.0021 to 0.0058 ppm for a 5 point decrease in Short Test of Mental Status, p = 0.003 to p<0.001). Effect sizes in cortical regions were smaller, and the age associations were generally negative. Higher susceptibility was significantly associated with higher amyloid PET SUVR in the pallidum and putamen (betas: 0.0029 and 0.0012 ppm for a 20% increase in amyloid PET, p = 0.05 and 0.02, respectively), higher tau PET in the basal ganglia with the largest effect size in the pallidum (0.0082 ppm for a 20% increase in tau PET, p<0.001), and with lower cortical gray matter volume in the medial temporal lobe (0.0006 ppm for a 20% decrease in volume, p = 0.03). Overall, these findings suggest that susceptibility in the deep and inferior gray nuclei, particularly the pallidum and putamen, may be a marker of cognitive decline, amyloid deposition, and off-target binding of the tau ligand. Although iron has been demonstrated in amyloid plaques and in association with neurodegeneration, it is of insufficient quantity to be reliably detected in the cortex using this implementation of QSM.

Long-Term Follow-up of Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance.

BACKGROUND: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) occurs in approximately 3% of persons 50 years of age or older. METHODS: We studied 1384 patients who were residing in southeastern Minnesota and in whom MGUS was diagnosed at the Mayo Clinic in the period from 1960 through 1994; the median follow-up was 34.1 years (range, 0.0 to 43.6). The primary end point was progression to multiple myeloma or another plasma-cell or lymphoid disorder. RESULTS: During 14,130 person-years of follow-up, MGUS progressed in 147 patients (11%), a rate that was 6.5 times (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5 to 7.7) as high as the rate in the control population. The risk of progression without accounting for death due to competing causes was 10% at 10 years, 18% at 20 years, 28% at 30 years, 36% at 35 years, and 36% at 40 years. Among patients with IgM MGUS, the presence of two adverse risk factors - namely, an abnormal serum free light-chain ratio (ratio of kappa to lambda free light chains) and a high serum monoclonal protein (M protein) level (≥1.5 g per deciliter) - was associated with a risk of progression at 20 years of 55%, as compared with 41% among patients who had one adverse risk factor and 19% among patients who had neither risk factor. Among patients with non-IgM MGUS, the risk of progression at 20 years was 30% among those who had the two risk factors, 20% among those who had one risk factor, and 7% among those who had neither risk factor. Patients with MGUS had shorter survival than was expected in the control population of Minnesota residents of matched age and sex (median, 8.1 vs. 12.4 years; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Significant differences were noted in the risk of progression between patients with IgM MGUS and those with non-IgM MGUS. Overall survival was shorter among patients with MGUS than was expected in a matched control population. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute.).

Liver Stiffness by Magnetic Resonance Elastography Predicts Future Cirrhosis, Decompensation, and Death in NAFLD.

OBJECTIVES: Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is the most accurate method of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to investigate the role of MRE in the prediction of hard outcomes in NAFLD. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adults with NAFLD who underwent MRE between 2007 and 2019 at Mayo Clinic, Rochester were identified. Cox regression analyses were used to explore the predictive role of baseline LSM for 1) development of cirrhosis in noncirrhotic NAFLD and 2) development of liver decompensation or death in those with compensated cirrhosis. A total of 829 NAFLD subjects (54% women, median age 58 years) were identified. Of 639 subjects without cirrhosis, 20 developed cirrhosis after a median follow-up of 4 years. Baseline LSM was predictive of future cirrhosis development: age-adjusted HR = 2.93 (95% CI, 1.86-4.62, p <.0001) per 1 kPa increment (C-statistic = 0.86). Baseline LSM by MRE can be used to guide timing of longitudinal noninvasive monitoring: 5, 3 and 1 years for LSM of 2, 3 and 4-5 kPa, respectively. Of 194 subjects with compensated cirrhosis, 81 developed decompensation or death after a median follow-up of 5 years. Baseline LSM was predictive of future decompensation or death: HR = 1.32 (95% CI, 1.13-1.56, p = .0007) per 1 kPa increment after adjusting for age, sex and MELD-Na. The 1-year probability of future decompensation or death in cirrhosis with baseline LSM of 5 kPa vs 8 kPa is 9% vs 20%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In NAFLD, LSM by MRE is a significant predictor of future development of cirrhosis. These data expand the role of MRE in clinical practice beyond the estimation of liver fibrosis and provide important evidence that improves individualized disease monitoring and patient counseling.

Effect of Statins on the Risk of Extrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Statins have been proven to be cytotoxic to human cholangiocarcinoma cells by inhibiting cell division and inducing apoptosis. We aimed to determine the effect of statin use on the risk of cancer development and survival in patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ECC), including perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) and distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA). APPROACH AND RESULTS: A total of 394 patients with ECC and hyperlipidemia who received care at Mayo Clinic Rochester between 2005 and 2015 were matched by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and residency to 788 controls with hyperlipidemia. Clinical and outcome data were abstracted. The odds ratios (ORs) for risk and hazard ratios for outcomes were calculated. The mean age and standard deviation (SD) for cases and controls was 65.6 years (13.8). The number of statin users in cases and controls was 73 (19%) and 403 (51%), respectively. Hepatitis C virus infection (OR, 15.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.06-61.87; P < 0.001) was the most significant risk factor for pCCA followed by inflammatory bowel disease and cirrhosis, whereas other liver disease, including biliary stone disease (OR, 4.06; CI, 2.24-7.36; P < 0.001), was the only significant risk factor for dCCA. Statin use was associated with significantly reduced risk for all ECC (OR, 0.22; CI, 0.16-0.29) as well as for the subtypes pCCA (OR, 0.3; CI, 0.21-0.41) and dCCA (OR, 0.06; CI, 0.03-0.14), all P < 0.0001. Moderate-intensity dosage was found to decrease the risk of ECC (OR, 0.48; CI, 0.34-0.67; P < 0.001). Comparing statin ever users to nonusers, patients with dCCA who used statins had significantly overall better survival (hazard ratio = 0.53; CI, 0.29-0.97; P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: This case-control study suggests that statins decrease the risk of ECC and may improve survival in patients with dCCA. Additional validation studies are warranted.

The Role of Three-Dimensional Magnetic Resonance Elastography in the Diagnosis of Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis in Obese Patients Undergoing Bariatric Surgery.

The lack of reliable, noninvasive methods to diagnose early nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a major unmet need. We aimed to determine the diagnostic accuracy of three-dimensional magnetic resonance elastography (3D-MRE), with shear stiffness measured at 60 Hz, damping ratio at 40 Hz, and magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction (MRI-PDFF) in the detection of NASH in individuals undergoing bariatric surgery. Obese adults at risk for NASH were enrolled between 2015 and 2017 (prospective cohort, n = 88) and 2010 and 2013 (retrospective cohort, n = 87). The imaging protocol consisted of multifrequency 3D-MRE (mf3D-MRE) with shear waves delivered at different frequencies to explore parameters that best correlated with histologic NASH, and MRI-PDFF to estimate steatosis. The prospective cohort was used to establish the optimal mf3D-MRE technical parameters for NASH detection. The two cohorts were then combined to derive predictive models of NASH and disease activity by nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score (NAS) using the three imaging parameters that correlated with NASH. A total of 175 patients (median age 45, 81% women, and 81 [46%] with histologic NASH) were used for model derivation. From the complex shear modulus output generated by mf3D-MRE, the damping ratio at 40 Hz and shear stiffness at 60 Hz best correlated with NASH. The fat fraction obtained from MRI-PDFF correlated with steatosis (P < 0.05 for all). These three parameters were fit into a logistic regression model that predicted NASH with cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.73, sensitivity = 0.67, specificity = 0.80, positive predictive value = 0.73 and negative predictive value = 0.74, and disease activity by NAS with cross-validated AUROC = 0.82. Conclusion: The mf3D-MRE allows identification of imaging parameters that predict early NASH and disease activity. This imaging biomarker represents a promising alternative to liver biopsy for NASH diagnosis and monitoring. The results provide motivation for further studies in nonbariatric cohorts.