The Expected Behaviors of Posterior Predictive Tests and Their Unexpected Interpretation.

Poor fit between models of sequence or trait evolution and empirical data is known to cause biases and lead to spurious conclusions about evolutionary patterns and processes. Bayesian posterior prediction is a flexible and intuitive approach for detecting such cases of poor fit. However, the expected behavior of posterior predictive tests has never been characterized for evolutionary models, which is critical for their proper interpretation. Here, we show that the expected distribution of posterior predictive P-values is generally not uniform, in contrast to frequentist P-values used for hypothesis testing, and extreme posterior predictive P-values often provide more evidence of poor fit than typically appreciated. Posterior prediction assesses model adequacy under highly favorable circumstances, because the model is fitted to the data, which leads to expected distributions that are often concentrated around intermediate values. Nonuniform expected distributions of P-values do not pose a problem for the application of these tests, however, and posterior predictive P-values can be interpreted as the posterior probability that the fitted model would predict a dataset with a test statistic value as extreme as the value calculated from the observed data.

A global phylogeny of turtles reveals a burst of climate-associated diversification on continental margins.

Living turtles are characterized by extraordinarily low species diversity given their age. The clade's extensive fossil record indicates that climate and biogeography may have played important roles in determining their diversity. We investigated this hypothesis by collecting a molecular dataset for 591 individual turtles that, together, represent 80% of all turtle species, including representatives of all families and 98% of genera, and used it to jointly estimate phylogeny and divergence times. We found that the turtle tree is characterized by relatively constant diversification (speciation minus extinction) punctuated by a single threefold increase. We also found that this shift is temporally and geographically associated with newly emerged continental margins that appeared during the Eocene-Oligocene transition about 30 million years before present. In apparent contrast, the fossil record from this time period contains evidence for a major, but regional, extinction event. These seemingly discordant findings appear to be driven by a common global process: global cooling and drying at the time of the Eocene-Oligocene transition. This climatic shift led to aridification that drove extinctions in important fossil-bearing areas, while simultaneously exposing new continental margin habitat that subsequently allowed for a burst of speciation associated with these newly exploitable ecological opportunities.

Temperate Zone Isolation by Climate: An Extension of Janzen's 1967 Hypothesis.

AbstractOne of the most stunning patterns of the distribution of life on Earth is the latitudinal biodiversity gradient. In an influential article, Janzen (1967) predicted that tropical mountains are more effective migration barriers than temperate mountains of the same elevation, because annual temperature variation in the tropics is lower. A great deal of research has demonstrated that the mechanism envisioned by Janzen operates at broad latitudinal scales. However, the extent that the mechanism mediates biodiversity generally, and at smaller scales, is far less understood. We investigated whether climate overlap is associated with genetic similarity between populations within temperate regions using lizards in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California as a study system. By comparing genetic differentiation between high- and low-elevation populations, we found that in addition to the expected strong pattern of isolation by distance, high climate overlap was negatively associated with genetic differentiation, indicating that population pairs that inhabit climatically similar environments are less genetically differentiated. Moreover, while climate overlap between high- and low-elevation sites is predicted to increase from the equator to temperate regions, we find that in adjacent mountain ranges at the same latitude in temperate regions, climate overlap values can vary widely. This study suggests that in addition to the well-studied main effect of latitude on climate overlap and population differentiation, local climate factors within bioclimatic regions can also influence genetic differentiation between populations and do so by the same general mechanism that operates at larger geographic scales.

Testing concordance and conflict in spatial replication of landscape genetics inferences.

The degree to which landscape genetics findings can be extrapolated to different areas of a species range is poorly understood. Here, we used a broadly distributed ectothermic lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis, Western Fence lizard) as a model species to evaluate the full role of topography, climate, vegetation, and roads on dispersal and genetic differentiation. We conducted landscape genetics analyses with a total of 119 individuals in five areas within the Sierra Nevada mountain range. Genetic distances calculated from thousands of ddRAD markers were used to optimize landscape resistance surfaces and infer the effects of landscape and topographic features on genetic connectivity. Across study areas, we found a great deal of consistency in the primary environmental gradients impacting genetic connectivity, along with some site-specific differences, and a range in the proportion of genetic variance explained by environmental factors across study sites. High-elevation colder areas were consistently found to be barriers to gene flow, as were areas of high ruggedness and slope. High temperature seasonality and high precipitation during the winter wet season also presented a substantial barrier to gene flow in a majority of study areas. The effect of other landscape variables on genetic differentiation was more idiosyncratic and depended on specific attributes at each site. Across study areas, canyon valleys were always implicated as facilitators to dispersal and key features linking populations and maintaining genetic connectivity, though the relative importance varied in different areas. We emphasize that spatial data layers are complex and multidimensional, and careful consideration of spatial data correlation structure and robust analytic frameworks will be critical to our continued understanding of spatial genetics processes.

Biogeographic inferences across spatial and evolutionary scales.

The field of biogeography unites landscape genetics and phylogeography under a common conceptual framework. Landscape genetics traditionally focuses on recent-time, population-based, spatial genetics processes at small geographical scales, while phylogeography typically investigates deep past, lineage- and species-based processes at large geographical scales. Here, we evaluate the link between landscape genetics and phylogeographical methods using the western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis) as a model species. First, we conducted replicated landscape genetics studies across several geographical scales to investigate how population genetics inferences change depending on the spatial extent of the study area. Then, we carried out a phylogeographical study of population structure at two evolutionary scales informed by inferences derived from landscape genetics results to identify concordance and conflict between these sets of methods. We found significant concordance in landscape genetics processes at all but the largest geographical scale. Phylogeographical results indicate major clades are restricted to distinct river drainages or distinct hydrological regions. At a more recent timescale, we find minor clades are restricted to single river canyons in the majority of cases, while the remainder of river canyons include samples from at most two clades. Overall, the broad-scale pattern implicating stream and river valleys as key features linking populations in the landscape genetics results, and high degree of clade specificity within major topographic subdivisions in the phylogeographical results, is consistent. As landscape genetics and phylogeography share many of the same objectives, synthesizing theory, models and methods between these fields will help bring about a better understanding of ecological and evolutionary processes structuring genetic variation across space and time.

On the Need for New Measures of Phylogenomic Support.

The scale of data sets used to infer phylogenies has grown dramatically in the last decades, providing researchers with an enormous amount of information with which to draw inferences about evolutionary history. However, standard approaches to assessing confidence in those inferences (e.g., nonparametric bootstrap proportions [BP] and Bayesian posterior probabilities [PPs]) are still deeply influenced by statistical procedures and frameworks that were developed when information was much more limited. These approaches largely quantify uncertainty caused by limited amounts of data, which is often vanishingly small with modern, genome-scale sequence data sets. As a consequence, today's phylogenomic studies routinely report near-complete confidence in their inferences, even when different studies reach strongly conflicting conclusions and the sites and loci in a single data set contain much more heterogeneity than our methods assume or can accommodate. Therefore, we argue that BPs and marginal PPs of bipartitions have outlived their utility as the primary means of measuring phylogenetic support for modern phylogenomic data sets with large numbers of sites relative to the number of taxa. Continuing to rely on these measures will hinder progress towards understanding remaining sources of uncertainty in the most challenging portions of the Tree of Life. Instead, we encourage researchers to examine the ideas and methods presented in this special issue of Systematic Biology and to explore the area further in their own work. The papers in this special issue outline strategies for assessing confidence and uncertainty in phylogenomic data sets that move beyond stochastic error due to limited data and offer promise for more productive dialogue about the challenges that we face in reaching our shared goal of understanding the history of life on Earth.[Big data; gene tree variation; genomic era; statistical bias.].

Properties of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Performance across Many Empirical Alignments.

Nearly all current Bayesian phylogenetic applications rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to approximate the posterior distribution for trees and other parameters of the model. These approximations are only reliable if Markov chains adequately converge and sample from the joint posterior distribution. Although several studies of phylogenetic MCMC convergence exist, these have focused on simulated data sets or select empirical examples. Therefore, much that is considered common knowledge about MCMC in empirical systems derives from a relatively small family of analyses under ideal conditions. To address this, we present an overview of commonly applied phylogenetic MCMC diagnostics and an assessment of patterns of these diagnostics across more than 18,000 empirical analyses. Many analyses appeared to perform well and failures in convergence were most likely to be detected using the average standard deviation of split frequencies, a diagnostic that compares topologies among independent chains. Different diagnostics yielded different information about failed convergence, demonstrating that multiple diagnostics must be employed to reliably detect problems. The number of taxa and average branch lengths in analyses have clear impacts on MCMC performance, with more taxa and shorter branches leading to more difficult convergence. We show that the usage of models that include both Γ-distributed among-site rate variation and a proportion of invariable sites is not broadly problematic for MCMC convergence but is also unnecessary. Changes to heating and the usage of model-averaged substitution models can both offer improved convergence in some cases, but neither are a panacea.

Genetic diversity and the origins of parthenogenesis in the teiid lizard Aspidoscelis laredoensis.

Unisexual vertebrates typically form through hybridization events between sexual species in which reproductive mode transitions occur in the hybrid offspring. This evolutionary history is thought to have important consequences for the ecology of unisexual lineages and their interactions with congeners in natural communities. However, these consequences have proven challenging to study owing to uncertainty about patterns of population genetic diversity in unisexual lineages. Of particular interest is resolving the contribution of historical hybridization events versus post formational mutation to patterns of genetic diversity in nature. Here we use restriction site associated DNA genotyping to evaluate genetic diversity and demographic history in Aspidoscelis laredoensis, a diploid unisexual lizard species from the vicinity of the Rio Grande River in southern Texas and northern Mexico. The sexual progenitor species from which one or more lineages are derived also occur in the Rio Grande Valley region, although patterns of distribution across individual sites are quite variable. Results from population genetic and phylogenetic analyses resolved the major axes of genetic variation in this species and highlight how these match predictions based on historical patterns of hybridization. We also found discordance between results of demographic modelling using different statistical approaches with the genomic data. We discuss these insights within the context of the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that generate and maintain lineage diversity in unisexual species. As one of the most dynamic, intriguing, and geographically well investigated groups of whiptail lizards, these species hold substantial promise for future studies on the constraints of diversification in unisexual vertebrates.

Phylogenomics Reveals Ancient Gene Tree Discordance in the Amphibian Tree of Life.

Molecular phylogenies have yielded strong support for many parts of the amphibian Tree of Life, but poor support for the resolution of deeper nodes, including relationships among families and orders. To clarify these relationships, we provide a phylogenomic perspective on amphibian relationships by developing a taxon-specific Anchored Hybrid Enrichment protocol targeting hundreds of conserved exons which are effective across the class. After obtaining data from 220 loci for 286 species (representing 94% of the families and 44% of the genera), we estimate a phylogeny for extant amphibians and identify gene tree-species tree conflict across the deepest branches of the amphibian phylogeny. We perform locus-by-locus genealogical interrogation of alternative topological hypotheses for amphibian monophyly, focusing on interordinal relationships. We find that phylogenetic signal deep in the amphibian phylogeny varies greatly across loci in a manner that is consistent with incomplete lineage sorting in the ancestral lineage of extant amphibians. Our results overwhelmingly support amphibian monophyly and a sister relationship between frogs and salamanders, consistent with the Batrachia hypothesis. Species tree analyses converge on a small set of topological hypotheses for the relationships among extant amphibian families. These results clarify several contentious portions of the amphibian Tree of Life, which in conjunction with a set of vetted fossil calibrations, support a surprisingly younger timescale for crown and ordinal amphibian diversification than previously reported. More broadly, our study provides insight into the sources, magnitudes, and heterogeneity of support across loci in phylogenomic data sets.[AIC; Amphibia; Batrachia; Phylogeny; gene tree-species tree discordance; genomics; information theory.].

A New Diploid Parthenogenetic Whiptail Lizard from Sonora, Mexico, Is the "Missing Link" in the Evolutionary Transition to Polyploidy.

AbstractTransitions between sexual and unisexual reproductive modes have significant consequences for the evolutionary trajectories of species. These transitions have occurred numerous times in vertebrates and are frequently mediated by hybridization events. Triploid unisexual vertebrates are thought to arise through hybridization between individuals of a diploid unisexual lineage and a sexual species, although additional evidence that confirms this mechanism is needed in numerous groups. North American whiptail lizards (Aspidoscelis) are notable for being one of the largest radiations of unisexual vertebrates, and the most diverse group of Aspidoscelis includes numerous triploid lineages that have no known diploid unisexual ancestors. This pattern of "missing" ancestors may result from the short evolutionary life span of unisexual lineages or the selective advantages of polyploidy, or it could suggest that alternative mechanisms of triploid formation are operating in nature. We leverage genomic, morphological, and karyotypic data to describe a new diploid unisexual whiptail and show that it is likely the unisexual progenitor of an extant triploid lineage, A. opatae. We also resolve patterns of polyploidization within the A. sexlineatus species group and test predictions about the phenotypic outcomes of hybridization.

Model-Based Species Delimitation: Are Coalescent Species Reproductively Isolated?

A large and growing fraction of systematists define species as independently evolving lineages that may be recognized by analyzing the population genetic history of alleles sampled from individuals belonging to those species. This has motivated the development of increasingly sophisticated statistical models rooted in the multispecies coalescent process. Specifically, these models allow for simultaneous estimation of the number of species present in a sample of individuals and the phylogenetic history of those species using only DNA sequence data from independent loci. These methods hold extraordinary promise for increasing the efficiency of species discovery but require extensive validation to ensure that they are accurate and precise. Whether the species identified by these methods correspond to the species that would be recognized by alternative species recognition criteria (such as measurements of reproductive isolation) is currently an open question and a subject of vigorous debate. Here, we perform an empirical test of these methods by making use of a classic model system in the history of speciation research, flies of the genus Drosophila. Specifically, we use the uniquely comprehensive data on reproductive isolation that is available for this system, along with DNA sequence data, to ask whether Drosophila species inferred under the multispecies coalescent model correspond to those recognized by many decades of speciation research. We found that coalescent based and reproductive isolation-based methods of inferring species boundaries are concordant for 77% of the species pairs. We explore and discuss potential explanations for these discrepancies. We also found that the amount of prezygotic isolation between two species is a strong predictor of the posterior probability of species boundaries based on DNA sequence data, regardless of whether the species pairs are sympatrically or allopatrically distributed. [BPP; Drosophila speciation; genetic distance; multispecies coalescent.].

P3: Phylogenetic Posterior Prediction in RevBayes.

Tests of absolute model fit are crucial in model-based inference because poorly structured models can lead to biased parameter estimates. In Bayesian inference, posterior predictive simulations can be used to test absolute model fit. However, such tests have not been commonly practiced in phylogenetic inference due to a lack of convenient and flexible software. Here, we describe our newly implemented tests of model fit using posterior predictive testing, based on both data- and inference-based test statistics, in the phylogenetics software RevBayes. This new implementation makes a large spectrum of models available for use through a user-friendly and flexible interface.

Phylogeography of a widespread lizard complex reflects patterns of both geographic and ecological isolation.

A primary challenge for modern phylogeography is understanding how ecology and geography, both contemporary and historical, shape the spatial distribution and evolutionary histories of species. Phylogeographic patterns are the result of many factors, including geology, climate, habitat, colonization history and lineage-specific constraints. Assessing the relative influences of these factors is difficult because few species, regions and environments are sampled in enough detail to compare competing hypotheses rigorously and because a particular phylogeographic pattern can potentially result from different evolutionary scenarios. The silky anoles (Anolis sericeus complex) of Central America and Mexico are abundant and found in all types of lowland terrestrial habitat, offering an excellent opportunity to test the relative influences of the factors affecting diversification. Here, we performed a range-wide statistical phylogeographic analysis on restriction site-associated DNA (RAD) markers from silky anoles and compared the phylogeographic patterns we recovered to historical and contemporary environmental and topographic data. We constructed niche models to compare niche overlap between sister lineages and conducted coalescent simulations to characterize how the major lineages of silky anoles have diverged. Our results revealed that the mode of divergence for major lineage diversification events was geographic isolation, resulting in ecological divergence between lineages, followed by secondary contact. Moreover, comparisons of parapatric sister lineages suggest that ecological niche divergence contributed to isolation by environment in this system, reflecting the natural history differences among populations in divergent environments.

Complex patterns of hybridization and introgression across evolutionary timescales in Mexican whiptail lizards (Aspidoscelis).

Identifying patterns of introgression across the tree of life is foundational to understanding general mechanisms that govern the impacts of gene flow on the speciation process. There are few vertebrate groups in which hybridization is associated with as large a diversity of outcomes as in North American whiptail lizards (Aspidoscelis). Of particular interest is that hybridization among divergent whiptail species has repeatedly led to the formation of unisexual (parthenogenetic) lineages. Understanding the hybrid origin of these unisexual lineages requires an accurate understanding of species boundaries among gonochoristic whiptails. Doing so has historically been an extremely challenging problem which, in part, may be a consequence of widespread hybridization and incomplete reproductive isolation among lineages. The lack of a robust phylogenetic framework and uncertainty in species boundaries precludes studies of general patterns and mechanisms of introgression among whiptail species. Here, we use genomic data to reconstruct a robust estimate of evolutionary history in the largest clade of whiptail lizards (A. sexlineatus species group) and use it to identify patterns of introgression. Our results indicate substantial introgressive hybridization and admixture has occurred among multiple lineages of whiptails across diverse evolutionary time scales, and illustrate their impact on phylogenetic inference. Thus, hybridization among whiptail species appears to have been a prominent feature throughout their evolutionary history, which could, in part, explain why parthenogenesis has evolved so many times in whiptails in comparison to other vertebrate groups.

The Behavior of Metropolis-Coupled Markov Chains When Sampling Rugged Phylogenetic Distributions.

Bayesian phylogenetic inference relies on the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to provide numerical approximations of high-dimensional integrals and estimate posterior probabilities. However, MCMC performs poorly when posteriors are very rugged (i.e., regions of high posterior density are separated by regions of low posterior density). One technique that has become popular for improving numerical estimates from MCMC when distributions are rugged is Metropolis coupling (MC$^3$). In MC$^3$, additional chains are employed to sample flattened transformations of the posterior and improve mixing. Here, we highlight several underappreciated behaviors of MC3. Notably, estimated posterior probabilities may be incorrect but appear to converge, when individual chains do not mix well, despite different chains sampling trees from all relevant areas in tree space. Counterintuitively, such behavior can be more difficult to diagnose with increased numbers of chains. We illustrate these surprising behaviors of MC$^3$ using a simple, non-phylogenetic example and phylogenetic examples involving both constrained and unconstrained analyses. To detect and mitigate the effects of these behaviors, we recommend increasing the number of independent analyses and varying the temperature of the hottest chain in current versions of Bayesian phylogenetic software. Convergence diagnostics based on the behavior of the hottest chain may also help detect these behaviors and could form a useful addition to future software releases.

Impact of Model Violations on the Inference of Species Boundaries Under the Multispecies Coalescent.

The use of genetic data for identifying species-level lineages across the tree of life has received increasing attention in the field of systematics over the past decade. The multispecies coalescent model provides a framework for understanding the process of lineage divergence and has become widely adopted for delimiting species. However, because these studies lack an explicit assessment of model fit, in many cases, the accuracy of the inferred species boundaries are unknown. This is concerning given the large amount of empirical data and theory that highlight the complexity of the speciation process. Here, we seek to fill this gap by using simulation to characterize the sensitivity of inference under the multispecies coalescent (MSC) to several violations of model assumptions thought to be common in empirical data. We also assess the fit of the MSC model to empirical data in the context of species delimitation. Our results show substantial variation in model fit across data sets. Posterior predictive tests find the poorest model performance in data sets that were hypothesized to be impacted by model violations. We also show that while the inferences assuming the MSC are robust to minor model violations, such inferences can be biased under some biologically plausible scenarios. Taken together, these results suggest that researchers can identify individual data sets in which species delimitation under the MSC is likely to be problematic, thereby highlighting the cases where additional lines of evidence to identify species boundaries are particularly important to collect. Our study supports a growing body of work highlighting the importance of model checking in phylogenetics, and the usefulness of tailoring tests of model fit to assess the reliability of particular inferences. [Populations structure, gene flow, demographic changes, posterior prediction, simulation, genetics.].

Variation Across Mitochondrial Gene Trees Provides Evidence for Systematic Error: How Much Gene Tree Variation Is Biological?

The use of large genomic data sets in phylogenetics has highlighted extensive topological variation across genes. Much of this discordance is assumed to result from biological processes. However, variation among gene trees can also be a consequence of systematic error driven by poor model fit, and the relative importance of biological vs. methodological factors in explaining gene tree variation is a major unresolved question. Using mitochondrial genomes to control for biological causes of gene tree variation, we estimate the extent of gene tree discordance driven by systematic error and employ posterior prediction to highlight the role of model fit in producing this discordance. We find that the amount of discordance among mitochondrial gene trees is similar to the amount of discordance found in other studies that assume only biological causes of variation. This similarity suggests that the role of systematic error in generating gene tree variation is underappreciated and critical evaluation of fit between assumed models and the data used for inference is important for the resolution of unresolved phylogenetic questions.

Revised classification of the righteye flounders (Teleostei: Pleuronectidae) based on multilocus phylogeny with complete taxon sampling.

Members of the family Pleuronectidae are common representatives of the marine benthic fauna inhabiting northern regions of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The most recent comprehensive classification of the family, based entirely on morphological synapomorphies, recognized five subfamilies, 23 genera, and 61 extant species. However, several subsequent molecular studies have shown that many synapomorphic characters discovered in the morphological study might represent homoplasies, thereby questioning the reliance on these characters with the warning that they may provide misleading information for testing other morphology-based evolutionary hypotheses. In the present study, we propose a comprehensive taxonomic reassessment of the family Pleuronectidae based on the molecular phylogeny reconstructed from four nuclear and three mitochondrial loci and represented by complete taxon sampling of all but one valid species currently assigned to this family. To check for robustness of the phylogenetic hypothesis, we analyzed the effect of base compositional heterogeneity on phylogenetic signal for each locus and compared six different gene partitioning schemes. The final dataset, comprising 14 partitions and 154 individuals, was used to reconstruct phylogenetic trees in RAxML, MrBayes and BEAST2. Alternative topologies for several questionable nodes were compared using Bayes factors. The topology with the highest marginal likelihood was selected as the final phylogenetic tree for inferring pleuronectid relationships and character evolution. Based on our results, we recognize the Pleuronectidae comprising five subfamilies, 24 genera and 59 species. Our new phylogeny comprises five major monophyletic groups within the family, which we define as the subfamilies within the family: Atheresthinae, Pleuronichthyinae, Microstominae, Hippoglossinae and Pleuronectinae. Taxonomic composition of most of these subfamilies is different from that proposed in previous classifications. We also re-assess hypotheses proposed in earlier studies regarding intra-relationships of species of each lineage. Results of the current study contribute to better understanding of the evolutionary relationships of pleuronectid flatfishes based on molecular evidence, and they also provide the framework towards future comprehensive morphological revision of constituent lineages within the family Pleuronectidae.

Molecular phylogeny and divergence of the map turtles (Emydidae: Graptemys).

The map turtles (genus Graptemys) comprise a morphologically diverse clade that forms a major component of the southeastern US hotspot of chelonian diversity. Map turtles have experienced both recent and rapid diversification resulting in long-standing uncertainty regarding species boundaries and phylogenetic relationships within the genus as well as timing of their divergence. We present a phylogeny for the group that includes geographically representative sampling for all described species and subspecies. We make use of an empirical prior on rates of molecular evolution to estimate divergence times with a molecular clock under a coalescent framework. Together, the phylogeny and divergence time estimates suggest that diversification has been both more recent and more rapid than has so far been suspected. We provide a well-supported evolutionary framework for Graptemys that is necessary for understanding map turtle diversity, biogeography, and for conservation of this threatened clade of turtles.

Bayes Factors Unmask Highly Variable Information Content, Bias, and Extreme Influence in Phylogenomic Analyses.

As the application of genomic data in phylogenetics has become routine, a number of cases have arisen where alternative data sets strongly support conflicting conclusions. This sensitivity to analytical decisions has prevented firm resolution of some of the most recalcitrant nodes in the tree of life. To better understand the causes and nature of this sensitivity, we analyzed several phylogenomic data sets using an alternative measure of topological support (the Bayes factor) that both demonstrates and averts several limitations of more frequently employed support measures (such as Markov chain Monte Carlo estimates of posterior probabilities). Bayes factors reveal important, previously hidden, differences across six "phylogenomic" data sets collected to resolve the phylogenetic placement of turtles within Amniota. These data sets vary substantially in their support for well-established amniote relationships, particularly in the proportion of genes that contain extreme amounts of information as well as the proportion that strongly reject these uncontroversial relationships. All six data sets contain little information to resolve the phylogenetic placement of turtles relative to other amniotes. Bayes factors also reveal that a very small number of extremely influential genes (less than 1% of genes in a data set) can fundamentally change significant phylogenetic conclusions. In one example, these genes are shown to contain previously unrecognized paralogs. This study demonstrates both that the resolution of difficult phylogenomic problems remains sensitive to seemingly minor analysis details and that Bayes factors are a valuable tool for identifying and solving these challenges.