Use of blood pressure measurements extracted from the electronic health record in predicting Alzheimer's disease: A retrospective cohort study at two medical centers.

INTRODUCTION: Studies investigating the relationship between blood pressure (BP) measurements from electronic health records (EHRs) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) rely on summary statistics, like BP variability, and have only been validated at a single institution. We hypothesize that leveraging BP trajectories can accurately estimate AD risk across different populations. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study, EHR data from Veterans Affairs (VA) patients were used to train and internally validate a machine learning model to predict AD onset within 5 years. External validation was conducted on patients from Michigan Medicine (MM). RESULTS: The VA and MM cohorts included 6860 and 1201 patients, respectively. Model performance using BP trajectories was modest but comparable (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.54-0.73] for VA vs. AUROC = 0.66 [95% CI = 0.55-0.76] for MM). CONCLUSION: Approaches that directly leverage BP trajectories from EHR data could aid in AD risk stratification across institutions.

Predicting 5-year dementia conversion in veterans with mild cognitive impairment.

INTRODUCTION: Identifying mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients at risk for dementia could facilitate early interventions. Using electronic health records (EHRs), we developed a model to predict MCI to all-cause dementia (ACD) conversion at 5 years. METHODS: Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors of ACD conversion from EHR data in veterans with MCI. Model performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] and Brier score) was evaluated on a held-out data subset. RESULTS: Of 59,782 MCI patients, 15,420 (25.8%) converted to ACD. The model had good discriminative performance (AUC 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.74]), and calibration (Brier score 0.18 [95% CI 0.17-0.18]). Age, stroke, cerebrovascular disease, myocardial infarction, hypertension, and diabetes were risk factors, while body mass index, alcohol abuse, and sleep apnea were protective factors. DISCUSSION: EHR-based prediction model had good performance in identifying 5-year MCI to ACD conversion and has potential to assist triaging of at-risk patients. Highlights: Of 59,782 veterans with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), 15,420 (25.8%) converted to all-cause dementia within 5 years.Electronic health record prediction models demonstrated good performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.73; Brier 0.18).Age and vascular-related morbidities were predictors of dementia conversion.Synthetic data was comparable to real data in modeling MCI to dementia conversion. Key Points: An electronic health record-based model using demographic and co-morbidity data had good performance in identifying veterans who convert from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to all-cause dementia (ACD) within 5 years.Increased age, stroke, cerebrovascular disease, myocardial infarction, hypertension, and diabetes were risk factors for 5-year conversion from MCI to ACD.High body mass index, alcohol abuse, and sleep apnea were protective factors for 5-year conversion from MCI to ACD.Models using synthetic data, analogs of real patient data that retain the distribution, density, and covariance between variables of real patient data but are not attributable to any specific patient, performed just as well as models using real patient data. This could have significant implications in facilitating widely distributed computing of health-care data with minimized patient privacy concern that could accelerate scientific discoveries.

Cohort discovery and risk stratification for Alzheimer's disease: an electronic health record-based approach.

BACKGROUND: We sought to leverage data routinely collected in electronic health records (EHRs), with the goal of developing patient risk stratification tools for predicting risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHOD: Using EHR data from the University of Michigan (UM) hospitals and consensus-based diagnoses from the Michigan Alzheimer's Disease Research Center, we developed and validated a cohort discovery tool for identifying patients with AD. Applied to all UM patients, these labels were used to train an EHR-based machine learning model for predicting AD onset within 10 years. RESULTS: Applied to a test cohort of 1697 UM patients, the model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.70 (95% confidence interval = 0.63-0.77). Important predictive factors included cardiovascular factors and laboratory blood testing. CONCLUSION: Routinely collected EHR data can be used to predict AD onset with modest accuracy. Mining routinely collected data could shed light on early indicators of AD appearance and progression.

Yeast Two-Hybrid Analysis for Ubiquitin Variant Inhibitors of Human Deubiquitinases.

We applied a yeast-two-hybrid (Y2H) analysis to screen for ubiquitin variant (UbV) inhibitors of a human deubiquitinase (DUB), ubiquitin-specific protease 2 (USP2). The Y2H screen used USP2 as the bait and a prey library consisting of UbVs randomized at four specific positions, which were known to interact with USP2 from phage display analysis. The screen yielded numerous UbVs that bound to USP2 both as a Y2H interaction in vivo and as purified proteins in vitro. The Y2H-derived UbVs inhibited the catalytic activity of USP2 in vitro with nanomolar-range potencies, and they bound and inhibited USP2 in human cells. Mutational and structural analysis showed that potent and selective inhibition could be achieved by just two substitutions in a UbV, which exhibited improved hydrophobic and hydrophilic contacts compared to the wild-type ubiquitin interaction with USP2. Our results establish Y2H as an effective platform for the development of UbV inhibitors of DUBs in vivo, providing an alternative strategy for the analysis of DUBs that are recalcitrant to phage display and other in vitro methods.

Characterizing heterogeneity in the progression of Alzheimer's disease using longitudinal clinical and neuroimaging biomarkers.

INTRODUCTION: Models characterizing intermediate disease stages of Alzheimer's disease (AD) are needed to inform clinical care and prognosis. Current models, however, use only a small subset of available biomarkers, capturing only coarse changes along the complete spectrum of disease progression. We propose the use of machine learning techniques and clinical, biochemical, and neuroimaging biomarkers to characterize progression to AD. METHODS: We used a large multimodal longitudinal data set of biomarkers and demographic and genotype information from 1624 participants from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. Using hidden Markov models, we characterized intermediate disease stages. We validated inferred disease trajectories by comparing time to first clinical AD diagnosis. We trained an L2-regularized logistic regression model to predict disease trajectory and evaluated its discriminative performance on a test set. RESULTS: We identified 12 distinct disease states. Progression to AD occurred most often through one of two possible paths through these states. Paths differed in terms of rate of disease progression (by 5.44 years on average), amyloid and total-tau (t-tau) burden (by 10% and 69%, respectively), and hippocampal neurodegeneration (P < .001). On the test set, the predictive model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85. DISCUSSION: Progression to AD, in terms of biomarker trajectories, can be predicted based on participant-specific factors. Such disease staging tools could help in targeting high-risk patients for therapeutic intervention trials. As longitudinal data with richer features are collected, such models will help increase our understanding of the factors that drive the different trajectories of AD.