Genomic Classification and Individualized Prognosis in Multiple Myeloma.

PURPOSE: Outcomes for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) are heterogenous, with overall survival (OS) ranging from months to over 10 years. METHODS: To decipher and predict the molecular and clinical heterogeneity of NDMM, we assembled a series of 1,933 patients with available clinical, genomic, and therapeutic data. RESULTS: Leveraging a comprehensive catalog of genomic drivers, we identified 12 groups, expanding on previous gene expression-based molecular classifications. To build a model predicting individualized risk in NDMM (IRMMa), we integrated clinical, genomic, and treatment variables. To correct for time-dependent variables, including high-dose melphalan followed by autologous stem-cell transplantation (HDM-ASCT), and maintenance therapy, a multi-state model was designed. The IRMMa model accuracy was significantly higher than all comparator prognostic models, with a c-index for OS of 0.726, compared with International Staging System (ISS; 0.61), revised-ISS (0.572), and R2-ISS (0.625). Integral to model accuracy was 20 genomic features, including 1q21 gain/amp, del 1p, TP53 loss, NSD2 translocations, APOBEC mutational signatures, and copy-number signatures (reflecting the complex structural variant chromothripsis). IRMMa accuracy and superiority compared with other prognostic models were validated on 256 patients enrolled in the GMMG-HD6 (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02495922) clinical trial. Individualized patient risks were significantly affected across the 12 genomic groups by different treatment strategies (ie, treatment variance), which was used to identify patients for whom HDM-ASCT is particularly effective versus patients for whom the impact is limited. CONCLUSION: Integrating clinical, demographic, genomic, and therapeutic data, to our knowledge, we have developed the first individualized risk-prediction model enabling personally tailored therapeutic decisions for patients with NDMM.

Definition and Clinical Significance of the Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance-Like Phenotype in Patients With Monoclonal Gammopathies.

PURPOSE: The existence of patients with multiple myeloma (MM) and light-chain (AL) amyloidosis who present with a monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS)-like phenotype has been hypothesized, but methods to identify this subgroup are not standardized and its clinical significance is not properly validated. PATIENTS AND METHODS: An algorithm to identify patients having MGUS-like phenotype was developed on the basis of the percentages of total bone marrow (BM) plasma cells (PC) and of clonal PC within the BM PC compartment, determined at diagnosis using flow cytometry in 548 patients with MGUS and 2,011 patients with active MM. The clinical significance of the algorithm was tested and validated in 488 patients with smoldering MM, 3,870 patients with active MM and 211 patients with AL amyloidosis. RESULTS: Patients with smoldering MM with MGUS-like phenotype showed significantly lower rates of disease progression (4.5% and 0% at 2 years in two independent series). There were no statistically significant differences in time to progression between treatment versus observation in these patients. In active newly diagnosed MM, MGUS-like phenotype retained independent prognostic value in multivariate analyses of progression-free survival (PFS; hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; P = .001) and overall survival (OS; HR, 0.56; P = .039), together with International Staging System, lactate dehydrogenase, cytogenetic risk, transplant eligibility, and complete remission status. Transplant-eligible patients with active MM with MGUS-like phenotype showed PFS and OS rates at 5 years of 79% and 96%, respectively. In this subgroup, there were no differences in PFS and OS according to complete remission and measurable residual disease status. Application of the algorithm in two independent series of patients with AL predicted for different survival. CONCLUSION: We developed an open-access algorithm for the identification of MGUS-like patients with distinct clinical outcomes. This phenotypic classification could become part of the diagnostic workup of MM and AL amyloidosis.

FRAX is a robust predictor of baseline vertebral fractures in multiple myeloma patients.

FRAX is a commonly used tool to evaluate patient fracture risk based on individual patient models that integrate the risks associated with clinical risk factors with or without bone mineral density (BMD) at the femoral neck. Retrospectively, factors identified by the FRAX scoring algorithm were used to predict the risk for vertebral compression fractures at baseline in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients. The data were derived from myeloma patients enrolled in Total Therapy Protocols (TT4 & TT5) between 8/2008 and 9/2017. FRAX scores were calculated and baseline PET and MRI imaging obtained. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses determined the association between FRAX components and the existence of vertebral compression fractures, both pathologic and osteoporotic. The patient population had a median age of 61 years (43-76), 37% female, and 87% white. The median major osteoporotic score (MOS) and Hip fracture scores (HFS) for TT4 patients (low-risk myeloma) were 5.6 and 0.5, respectively, while median MOS and HFS for TT5 (high risk myeloma) patients were 6.2 and 0.7, respectively. The odds ratio for fracture at diagnosis in patients with elevated MOS (>2), and HFS (>4.5) was significant OR (1.48, 95% confidence interval (1.35,1.62)) and OR (1.61, 95% confidence interval (1.42, 1.81)), respectively. In sum, an elevated baseline FRAX score was highly predictive of baseline vertebral fractures in MM patients at presentation. In addition, patients with higher FRAX scores had significantly shorter survival in the low-risk (TT4) group but this survival effect was not seen in the high-risk (TT5) group. These findings suggest that FRAX assessment of baseline fracture risk is beneficial in MM patients to identify an individual patients' risk of vertebral fracture.

Complete remission sustained 3 years from treatment initiation is a powerful surrogate for extended survival in multiple myeloma.

BACKGROUND: Complete response (CR) has been considered a necessary although not sufficient early clinical endpoint for extended survival in multiple myeloma. METHODS: By using Total Therapy 2 (TT2) clinical outcome data in 668 patients, whether sustained CR (SUS-CR) was potentially a superior surrogate for survival than attaining CR status per se was evaluated. RESULTS: Compared with not achieving CR (NON-CR) and especially achieving and subsequently losing CR status (LOS-CR) within a 3-year landmark from treatment initiation, SUS-CR was associated with highly superior postlandmark survival (P < .0001). These results were validated in 231 untreated patients enrolled in the predecessor trial, TT1 (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.54, P = .013) and in 1103 previously treated patients on other transplant protocols (HR = 0.49; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In all 3 trial settings the survival benefit of SUS-CR was independent of metaphase abnormalities as a dominant adverse parameter. Given its bleak prognosis despite high CR rates, SUS-CR should be evaluated as a primary trial endpoint in high-risk myeloma.