Revisiting COVID-19 policies: 10 evidence-based recommendations for where to go from here.

BACKGROUND: Strategies to control coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) have often been based on preliminary and limited data and have tended to be slow to evolve as new evidence emerges. Yet knowledge about COVID-19 has grown exponentially, and the expanding rollout of vaccines presents further opportunity to reassess the response to the pandemic more broadly. MAIN TEXT: We review the latest evidence concerning 10 key COVID-19 policy and strategic areas, specifically addressing: 1) the expansion of equitable vaccine distribution, 2) the need to ease restrictions as hospitalization and mortality rates eventually fall, 3) the advantages of emphasizing educational and harm reduction approaches over coercive and punitive measures, 4) the need to encourage outdoor activities, 5) the imperative to reopen schools, 6) the far-reaching and long-term economic and psychosocial consequences of sustained lockdowns, 7) the excessive focus on surface disinfection and other ineffective measures, 8) the importance of reassessing testing policies and practices, 9) the need for increasing access to outpatient therapies and prophylactics, and 10) the necessity to better prepare for future pandemics. CONCLUSIONS: While remarkably effective vaccines have engendered great hope, some widely held assumptions underlying current policy approaches call for an evidence-based reassessment. COVID-19 will require ongoing mitigation for the foreseeable future as it transforms from a pandemic into an endemic infection, but maintaining a constant state of emergency is not viable. A more realistic public health approach is to adjust current mitigation goals to be more data-driven and to minimize unintended harms associated with unfocused or ineffective control efforts. Based on the latest evidence, we therefore present recommendations for refining 10 key policy areas, and for applying lessons learned from COVID-19 to prevent and prepare for future pandemics.

Screening for cervical cancer among HIV-positive and HIV-negative women in Cameroon using simultaneous co-testing with careHPV DNA testing and visual inspection enhanced by digital cervicography: Findings of initial screening and one-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: The World Health Organization (WHO)'s cervical cancer screening guidelines for limited-resource settings recommend sequential screening followed by same-day treatment under a "screen-and-treat" approach. We aimed to (1) assess feasibility and clinical outcomes of screening HIV-positive and HIV-negative Cameroonian women by pairing visual inspection with acetic acid and Lugol's iodine enhanced by digital cervicography (VIA/VILI-DC) with careHPV, a high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) nucleic acid test designed for low-resource settings; and (2) determine persistence of HR-HPV infection after one-year follow-up to inform optimal screening, treatment, and follow-up algorithms. METHODS: We co-tested 913 previously unscreened women aged ≥30years and applied WHO-recommended treatment for all VIA/VILI-DC-positive women. Baseline prevalence of HR-HPV and HIV were 24% and 42%, respectively. RESULTS: On initial screen, 44 (5%) women were VIA/VILI-DC-positive, of whom 22 had HR-HPV infection, indicating 50% of women screened false-positive and would have been triaged for unnecessary same-day treatment. VIA/VILI-DC-positive women with HIV infection were three times more likely to be HR-HPV-positive than HIV-negative women (65% vs. 20%). All women positive for either VIA/VILI-DC or HR-HPV (n=245) were invited for repeat co-testing after one year, of which 136 (56%) returned for follow-up. Of 122 women who were HR-HPV-positive on initial screen, 60 (49%) re-tested negative, of whom 6 had received treatment after initial screen, indicating that 44% of initially HR-HPV-positive women spontaneously cleared infection after one year without treatment. Women with HIV were more likely to remain HR-HPV-positive on follow-up than HIV-negative women (61% vs. 22%, p<0.001). Treatment was offered to all VIA/VILI-DC positive women on initial screen, and to all women screening VIA/VILI-DC or HR-HPV positive on follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: We found careHPV co-testing with VIA/VILI-DC to be feasible and valuable in identifying false-positives, but careHPV screening-to-result time was too long to inform same-day treatment.

Predictors of cervical cancer screening among Kenyan women: results of a nested case-control study in a nationally representative survey.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is a major public health concern in Kenya. It is the leading cause of cancer morbidity and mortality among women. Although screening is an effective prevention method, uptake is low among eligible women. Little is known about predictors of cervical cancer screening uptake. This study explored relationship between uptake of cervical cancer screening, socio-demographic, behavioral and biological risk factors. METHODS: Nested case-control study within STEPS survey, a population-based cross-sectional household survey conducted between April and June 2015.Cases were women who had undergone cervical cancer screening and controls were unscreened women. Study participants were women eligible for cervical cancer screening (30-49 years). Variables included socio-demographic; behavioral risk factors such as physical activity, tobacco and alcohol use diet and biological factors like diabetes and hypertension. Outcome of interest was cervical cancer screening. Data analysis was done using STATA version 14. Logistic regression model was used to assess relationship between cervical cancer screening and socio-demographic, behavioral and biological risk factors. RESULTS: Of 1180 women interviewed, 16.4% (n = 194) had been screened for cervical cancer. Of unscreened women (n = 986), 67.9% were aware of cervical cancer screening. Higher screening rates were observed in more educated women (25.2%), highest income quintile (29.6%) and living in urban areas (23%) than in women with no formal education (3.2%), poorest (3.6%) and living in rural areas (13.8%). Younger women (35-39) and those with low High-density lipoprotein (HDL) were less likely to be screened [OR = 0.56; 95% CI = (0.34, 0.93); p-value = 0.025] and [OR = 0.51; 95% CI = (0.29, 0.91); p = value 0.023] respectively. Self-employed women, those in the fourth wealth quintile, binge drinkers, high sugar consumption and insufficient physical activity were more likely to be screened [OR 2.55 (1.12, 5.81) p value 0.026], [OR 3.56 (1.37, 9.28) p value 0.009], [OR 5.94 (1.52, 23.15) p value 0.010], [OR 2.99 (1.51, 5.89) p value 0.002] and [OR 2.79 (1.37, 5.68) p value 0.005] respectively. CONCLUSION: Uptake of cervical cancer screening is low despite high awareness. Strategies to improve cervical cancer screening in Kenya should be implemented with messages targeting persons with both risky and non-risky lifestyles especially younger women with no formal education living in rural areas.

Task-shifting alcohol interventions for HIV+ persons in Kenya: a cost-benefit analysis.

BACKGROUND: Among HIV+ patients, alcohol use is a highly prevalent risk factor for both HIV transmission and poor adherence to HIV treatment. The large-scale implementation of effective interventions for treating alcohol problems remains a challenge in low-income countries with generalized HIV epidemics. It is essential to consider an intervention's cost-effectiveness in dollars-per-health-outcome, and the long-term economic impact -or "return on investment" in monetary terms. METHODS: We conducted a cost-benefit analysis, measuring economic return on investment, of a task-shifted cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) intervention delivered by paraprofessionals to reduce alcohol use in a modeled cohort of 13,440 outpatients in Kenya. In our base-case, we estimated the costs and economic benefits from a societal perspective across a six-year time horizon, with a 3% annual discount rate. Costs included all costs associated with training and administering task-shifted CBT therapy. Benefits included the economic impact of lowered HIV incidence as well as the improvements in household and labor-force productivity. We conducted univariate and multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our results. RESULTS: Under the base case, total costs for CBT rollout was $554,000, the value of benefits were $628,000, and the benefit-to-cost ratio was 1.13. Sensitivity analyses showed that under most assumptions, the benefit-to-cost ratio remained above unity indicating that the intervention was cost-saving (i.e., had positive return on investment). The duration of the treatment effect most effected the results in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: CBT can be effectively and economically task-shifted to paraprofessionals in Kenya. The intervention can generate not only reductions in morbidity and mortality, but also economic savings for the health system in the medium and long term. The findings have implications for other countries with generalized HIV epidemics, high prevalence of alcohol consumption, and shortages of mental health professionals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This paper uses data derived from "Cognitive Behavioral Treatment to Reduce Alcohol Use Among HIV-Infected Kenyans (KHBS)" with ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT00792519 on 11/17/2008; and preliminary data from "A Stage 2 Cognitive-behavioral Trial: Reduce Alcohol First in Kenya Intervention" ( NCT01503255 , registered on 12/16/2011).

Erratum to: Estimation of country-specific and global prevalence of male circumcision.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s12963-016-0073-5.].

Estimation of country-specific and global prevalence of male circumcision.

BACKGROUND: Male circumcision (MC) status and genital infection risk are interlinked and MC is now part of HIV prevention programs worldwide. Current MC prevalence is not known for all countries globally. Our aim was to provide estimates for country-specific and global MC prevalence. METHODS: MC prevalence data were obtained by searches in PubMed, Demographic and Health Surveys, AIDS Indicator Surveys, and Behavioural Surveillance Surveys. Male age was ≥15 years in most surveys. Where no data were available, the population proportion whose religious faith or culture requires MC was used. The total number of circumcised males in each country and territory was calculated using figures for total males from (i) 2015 US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) data for sex ratio and total population in all 237 countries and territories globally and (ii) 2015 United Nations (UN) figures for males aged 15-64 years. RESULTS: The estimated percentage of circumcised males in each country and territory varies considerably. Based on (i) and (ii) above, global MC prevalence was 38.7 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 33.4, 43.9) and 36.7 % (95 % CI: 31.4, 42.0). Approximately half of circumcisions were for religious and cultural reasons. For countries lacking data we assumed 99.9 % of Muslims and Jews were circumcised. If actual prevalence in religious groups was lower, then MC prevalence in those countries would be lower. On the other hand, we assumed a minimum prevalence of 0.1 % related to MC for medical reasons. This may be too low, thereby underestimating MC prevalence in some countries. CONCLUSIONS: The present study provides the most accurate estimate to date of MC prevalence in each country and territory in the world. We estimate that 37-39 % of men globally are circumcised. Considering the health benefits of MC, these data may help guide efforts aimed at the use of voluntary, safe medical MC in disease prevention programs in various countries.

Visceral leishmaniasis follow-up and treatment outcomes in Tiaty East and West sub-counties, Kenya: Cure, relapse, and Post Kala-azar Dermal Leishmaniasis.

BACKGROUND: Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) with the highest regional burden in East Africa. Relapse and Post Kala-azar Dermal Leishmaniasis (PKDL) contribute to the spread of VL in endemic areas, making their surveillance imperative for control and elimination. Little is known about long-term patient outcomes in Kenya through follow-up after VL treatment, despite its requirement for control and elimination by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Kenya Ministry of Health (KMOH). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 36 follow-up patients in Tiaty East and West, sub-counties, Kenya, and records from 248 patients at the regional Chemolingot Sub-county Hospital (CSCH) were analyzed separately using Fisher's Exact Tests, two-sample t-tests, and Welch's t-tests in R (Version 4.3.0). The study found a prevalence rate of 88.89% (n = 32) final cure, 5.56% (n = 2) relapse, and 5.56% (n = 2) PKDL in follow-up patients and 92.74% (n = 230) initial cure, 6.86% (n = 17) relapse, and 0.80% (n = 2) PKDL in overall CSCH patients. The mean lengths of time at which follow-up patients relapsed and developed PKDL were 4.5 and 17 months, respectively. Young age (p = 0.04, 95% CI 0.63-24.31), shorter length of time from initial treatment to follow-up (p = 0.002, 95% CI 1.03-∞), lower Hb level at primary treatment (p = 0.0002, 95% CI 1.23-3.24), and living in Tiaty East sub-county (p = 0.04, 95% CI 0.00-1.43) were significantly associated (p<0.05) with VL relapse in follow-up study patients. Female sex (p = 0.04, 95% CI 0.84-∞) and living in Tiaty East sub-county (p = 0.03, 95% CI 0.00-1.43) were significantly associated with PKDL in follow-up study patients. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: More research should be done on PKDL in Kenya with active follow-up to understand its true burden. These results on prevalence and risk factors for PKDL and relapse in Kenya should inform knowledge of patient outcomes and interventions in the region.

Interpersonal violence against women and maternity care in Migori County, Kenya: evidence from a cross-sectional survey.

Background: Interpersonal violence (IPV) is an issue of major public health concern, with 24% of Kenyan women reporting physical violence perpetrated by a current husband or partner. IPV has profound impacts on physical and mental health outcomes, particularly for pregnant women; it has been found to increase the risk of perinatal mortality, low birth weight, and preterm birth. This study aims to identify variables associated with IPV and assess the effects of IPV experience on prenatal and peripartum maternal healthcare in Migori County, Kenya. Findings build on a previous study that investigated a smaller region of Migori County. Methods: Responses to cross-sectional household surveys conducted in six wards of Migori County, Kenya in 2021 from female respondents aged 18 and older were analyzed. The survey contained validated screening tools for interpersonal violence. Group-wise comparisons, and bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to describe community prevalence, factors associated with IPV against women, and the effect of IPV exposure on prenatal and peripartum health care. Results: This study finds that 2,306 (36.7%) of the 6,290 respondents had experienced lifetime IPV. IPV experience was associated with the age group 25-49 (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.208; 95%CI: [1.045-1.397]; p = 0.011), monogamous marriage [aOR 2.152; 95%CI: (1.426-3.248); p < 0.001], polygamous marriage [aOR 2.924; 95%CI: (1.826-4.683); p < 0.001], being widowed/divorced/separated [aOR 1.745; 95%CI: (1.094-2.786); p < 0.001], feeling an attitude of "sometimes okay" toward wife beating [aOR 2.002 95%CI: (1.651, 2.428); p < 0.001], having been exposed to IPV in girlhood [aOR 2.525; 95%CI: (2.202-2.896); p < 0.001] and feeling safe in the current relationship [aOR 0.722; 95%CI: (0.609, 0.855); p < 0.001]. A depression score of mild [aOR 1.482; 95%CI: (1.269, 1.73); p < 0.001] and severe [aOR 2.403; 95%CI: (1.429, 4.039); p = 0.001] was also associated with IPV experience, and women who experienced emotional abuse were much more likely to have experienced IPV [aOR 10.462; 95% CI: (9.037, 12.112); p < 0.001]. Adjusted analyses showed that having experienced IPV was negatively associated with attending at least four antenatal care visits during the most recent pregnancy (OR 0.849, p = 0.044) and with having a skilled birth attendant (OR 0.638, p = 0.007). Conclusions: IPV is prevalent in Migori County, Kenya, with increased prevalence among women aged 25-49, those residing in West Kanyamkago, those in a monogamous or polygamous marriage, those who have been widowed/divorced/separated, and those with severe depressive symptoms. Further, IPV exposure is associated with lower use of maternal care services and may lead to worse maternal health outcomes. There is need for enhanced effort in addressing social and gender norms that perpetuate IPV, and this study can contribute to guiding policy interventions and community responses towards IPV.

Review: a critical evaluation of arguments opposing male circumcision for HIV prevention in developed countries.

A potential impediment to evidence-based policy development on medical male circumcision (MC) for HIV prevention in all countries worldwide is the uncritical acceptance by some of arguments used by opponents of this procedure. Here we evaluate recent opinion-pieces of 13 individuals opposed to MC. We find that these statements misrepresent good studies, selectively cite references, some containing fallacious information, and draw erroneous conclusions. In marked contrast, the scientific evidence shows MC to be a simple, low-risk procedure with very little or no adverse long-term effect on sexual function, sensitivity, sensation during arousal or overall satisfaction. Unscientific arguments have been recently used to drive ballot measures aimed at banning MC of minors in the USA, eliminate insurance coverage for medical MC for low-income families, and threaten large fines and incarceration for health care providers. Medical MC is a preventative health measure akin to immunisation, given its protective effect against HIV infection, genital cancers and various other conditions. Protection afforded by neonatal MC against a diversity of common medical conditions starts in infancy with urinary tract infections and extends throughout life. Besides protection in adulthood against acquiring HIV, MC also reduces morbidity and mortality from multiple other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and genital cancers in men and their female sexual partners. It is estimated that over their lifetime one-third of uncircumcised males will suffer at least one foreskin-related medical condition. The scientific evidence indicates that medical MC is safe and effective. Its favourable risk/benefit ratio and cost/benefit support the advantages of medical MC.

A 'snip' in time: what is the best age to circumcise?

BACKGROUND: Circumcision is a common procedure, but regional and societal attitudes differ on whether there is a need for a male to be circumcised and, if so, at what age. This is an important issue for many parents, but also pediatricians, other doctors, policy makers, public health authorities, medical bodies, and males themselves. DISCUSSION: We show here that infancy is an optimal time for clinical circumcision because an infant's low mobility facilitates the use of local anesthesia, sutures are not required, healing is quick, cosmetic outcome is usually excellent, costs are minimal, and complications are uncommon. The benefits of infant circumcision include prevention of urinary tract infections (a cause of renal scarring), reduction in risk of inflammatory foreskin conditions such as balanoposthitis, foreskin injuries, phimosis and paraphimosis. When the boy later becomes sexually active he has substantial protection against risk of HIV and other viral sexually transmitted infections such as genital herpes and oncogenic human papillomavirus, as well as penile cancer. The risk of cervical cancer in his female partner(s) is also reduced. Circumcision in adolescence or adulthood may evoke a fear of pain, penile damage or reduced sexual pleasure, even though unfounded. Time off work or school will be needed, cost is much greater, as are risks of complications, healing is slower, and stitches or tissue glue must be used. SUMMARY: Infant circumcision is safe, simple, convenient and cost-effective. The available evidence strongly supports infancy as the optimal time for circumcision.

Awareness, acceptability and uptake of human papilloma virus vaccine among Cameroonian school-attending female adolescents.

The purpose of this study is to assess awareness, knowledge and beliefs about HPV, cervical cancer HPV vaccine and willingness to vaccinate among adolescent females aged 12-26 years at clinics and schools in the North West Region of Cameroon where the Cameroon Baptist Convention Health Services (CBCHS) conducted a sensitization and education campaign. A questionnaire survey was administered among female adolescents in schools and clinics. Descriptive statistics including frequencies, percentages and proportions were generated for independent variables and bivariate analyses (Chi square test) were used to assess the relationship between independent and outcome variables. Data were analyzed using SAS Version 9.2. Out of a sample of 650 adolescent girls 553 willingly participated in this anonymous survey. Awareness of HPV (86.8%), cervical cancer (82.3%), and prevention of HPV infections through vaccination (75.9%) was significantly higher than in previous studies conducted in Cameroon and other developing countries. Higher perceptions of risk were associated with being sexually active (p = 0.0013), age (p = 0.0031) and level of education (p = 0.0274). Age and educational level were associated with HPV knowledge (p = 0.007 and p = 0.0008), respectively. The mean level of interest in HPV vaccination was 4.0 (SD = 1.27), which is above the mean. Our data indicate high awareness about HPV, cervical cancer and HPV vaccine among adolescents, and interest in receiving the vaccine and learning about the disease. CBCHS' community education strategy effectively raised acceptability and generated demand for HPV vaccine, making it a potential model for HPV immunization in Cameroon and other developing countries.

Assessing the effectiveness of a community-based sensitization strategy in creating awareness about HPV, cervical cancer and HPV vaccine among parents in North West Cameroon.

In 2010, the Cameroon Baptist Convention Health Services (CBCHS) received a donation of HPV vaccine (Gardasil®) to immunize girls of ages 9-13 years in the North West Region of Cameroon. We evaluated the effectiveness of the CBCHS campaign program in sensitizing parents/guardians to encourage HPV vaccine uptake, identified factors that influence parents' decisions to vaccinate girls, and examined the uptake of cervical cancer screening among mothers. We conducted a cross-sectional survey in four healthcare facilities run by CBCHS, churches and other social settings. A total of 350 questionnaires were distributed and 317 were used for the analysis. There were high levels of awareness about cervical cancer, HPV and HPV vaccine. 75.5% understood HPV is sexually transmitted and 90.3% were aware of the use of vaccine as a preventive measure. Effectiveness of the vaccine (31.8%) and side effects/safety (18.4%) were the major barriers for parents to vaccinate their daughters. Bivariate analysis further revealed that the level of education (p = 0.0006), income level (p = 0.0044) and perceived risks (p = 0.0044) are additional factors influencing parents' decisions to vaccinate girls. 35.3% of women had sought a cervical cancer screening, significantly higher than the general estimated rate of screening (<10%) in other parts of Cameroon and sub-Saharan Africa. These results support the viability of a community-tailored sensitization strategy to increase awareness among the targeted audience of parents/guardians, who are critical decision-makers for vaccine delivery to children.

Criticisms of African trials fail to withstand scrutiny: male circumcision does prevent HIV infection.

A recent article in the JLM (Boyle GJ and Hill G, "Sub-Saharan African Randomised Clinical Trials into Male Circumcision and HIV Transmission: Methodological, Ethical and Legal Concerns" (2011) 19 JLM 316) criticises the large randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that scientists, clinicians and policy-makers worldwide have concluded provide compelling evidence in support of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) as an effective HIV prevention strategy. The present article addresses the claims advanced by Boyle and Hill, demonstrating their reliance on outmoded evidence, outlier studies, and flawed statistical analyses. In the current authors' view, their claims portray misunderstandings of the design, execution and interpretation of findings from RCTs in general and of the epidemiology of HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa in particular. At the same time they ignore systematic reviews and meta-analyses using all available data arising from good-quality research studies, including RCTs. Denial of the evidence supporting lack of male circumcision as a major determinant of HIV epidemic patterns in sub-Saharan Africa is unsubstantiated and risks undermining the evidence-based, large-scale roll-out of VMMC for HIV prevention currently underway. The present article highlights the quality, consistency and robustness of the scientific evidence that underpins the public health recommendations, guidance, and tools on VMMC. Millions of HIV infections will be averted in the coming decades as VMMC services scale-up to meet demand, providing direct benefits for heterosexual men and indirect benefits for their female partners.

What Could Explain the Lower COVID-19 Burden in Africa despite Considerable Circulation of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus?

The differential spread and impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), causing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), across regions is a major focus for researchers and policy makers. Africa has attracted tremendous attention, due to predictions of catastrophic impacts that have not yet materialized. Early in the pandemic, the seemingly low African case count was largely attributed to low testing and case reporting. However, there is reason to consider that many African countries attenuated the spread and impacts early on. Factors explaining low spread include early government community-wide actions, population distribution, social contacts, and ecology of human habitation. While recent data from seroprevalence studies posit more extensive circulation of the virus, continuing low COVID-19 burden may be explained by the demographic pyramid, prevalence of pre-existing conditions, trained immunity, genetics, and broader sociocultural dynamics. Though all these prongs contribute to the observed profile of COVID-19 in Africa, some provide stronger evidence than others. This review is important to expand what is known about the differential impacts of pandemics, enhancing scientific understanding and gearing appropriate public health responses. Furthermore, it highlights potential lessons to draw from Africa for global health on assumptions regarding deadly viral pandemics, given its long experience with infectious diseases.

HIV prevention cost-effectiveness: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: After more than 25 years, public health programs have not been able to sufficiently reduce the number of new HIV infections. Over 7,000 people become infected with HIV every day. Lack of convincing evidence of cost-effectiveness (CE) may be one of the reasons why implementation of effective programs is not occurring at sufficient scale. This paper identifies, summarizes and critiques the CE literature related to HIV-prevention interventions in low- and middle-income countries during 2005-2008. METHODS: Systematic identification of publications was conducted through several methods: electronic databases, internet search of international organizations and major funding/implementing agencies, and journal browsing. Inclusion criteria included: HIV prevention intervention, year for publication (2005-2008), setting (low- and middle-income countries), and CE estimation (empirical or modeling) using outcomes in terms of cost per HIV infection averted and/or cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) or quality-adjusted life year (QALY). RESULTS: We found 21 distinct studies analyzing the CE of HIV-prevention interventions published in the past four years (2005-2008). Seventeen CE studies analyzed biomedical interventions; only a few dealt with behavioral and environmental/structural interventions. Sixteen studies focused on sub-Saharan Africa, and only a handful on Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. Many HIV-prevention interventions are very cost effective in absolute terms (using costs per DALY averted), and also in country-specific relative terms (in cost per DALY measured as percentage of GDP per capita). CONCLUSION: There are several types of interventions for which CE studies are still not available or insufficient, including surveillance, abstinence, school-based education, universal precautions, prevention for positives and most structural interventions. The sparse CE evidence available is not easily comparable; thus, not very useful for decision making. More than 25 years into the AIDS epidemic and billions of dollars of spending later, there is still much work to be done both on costs and effectiveness to adequately inform HIV prevention planning.

Data quality shortcomings with the US HIV/AIDS surveillance system.

This study investigates some of the data quality challenges facing the HIV surveillance system in the United States. Using the content analysis method, Center for Disease Control annual HIV surveillance reports (1982-2014) are systematically reviewed and evaluated against relevant data quality metrics from previous literature. Center for Disease Control HIV surveillance system has made several key achievements in the last decade. However, there are several outstanding challenges that need to be addressed. The data are unrepresentative, incomplete, inaccurate, and lacks the required granularity limiting its usage. These shortcomings weaken the country's ability to track, report, and respond to the new HIV epidemiological trends. Furthermore, the problems deter the country from properly identifying and targeting the key subpopulations that need the highest resources by virtue of being at the highest risk of HIV infection. Several recommendations are suggested to address these issues.

Circumcision is a primary preventive against HIV infection: Critique of a contrary meta-regression analysis by Van Howe.

A meta-analysis by Van Howe of 109 populations confirms the well-known association of male circumcision (MC) with reduced HIV prevalence. He then performed meta-regression adjusting for location, risk and MC prevalence. When one or two of these adjustments in combination were applied MC appeared protective, but when all three were introduced the association remained significant in high-risk populations, but not in general populations within Africa with a hypothetical MC prevalence of <25% or elsewhere with hypothetical MC prevalence of <75%. However, many MC prevalence values given differed from those reported in references cited (including all US studies). This and other problems invalidate his adjustments for MC prevalence, undermining most of his meta-regression results. Meta-regression is a highly sophisticated statistical tool and is prone to error if not applied correctly. The study contained a high risk of bias arising from confounding. We also question his use of crude, rather than adjusted, odds ratios and his inclusion of unpublished data, so precluding replication by others. Flawed statistics, opaque presentation of results and inclusion of previously repudiated arguments downplaying a role for MC in HIV prevention programmes should lead readers to be sceptical of the findings and conclusions of Van Howe's study.

Male circumcision to prevent syphilis in 1855 and HIV in 1986 is supported by the accumulated scientific evidence to 2015: Response to Darby.

An article by Darby disparaging male circumcision (MC) for syphilis prevention in Victorian times (1837-1901) and voluntary medical MC programs for HIV prevention in recent times ignores contemporary scientific evidence. It is one-sided and cites outlier studies as well as claims by MC opponents that support the author's thesis, but ignores high quality randomised controlled trials and meta-analyses. While we agree with Darby that risky behaviours contribute to syphilis and HIV epidemics, there is now compelling evidence that MC helps reduce both syphilis and HIV infections. Although some motivations for MC in Victorian times were misguided, others, such as protection against syphilis, penile cancer, phimosis, balanitis and poor hygiene have stood the test of time. In the absence of a cure or effective prophylactic vaccine for HIV, MC should help lower heterosexually acquired HIV, especially when coupled with other interventions such as condoms and behaviour. This should save lives, as well as reducing costs and suffering. In contrast to Darby, our evaluation of the evidence leads us to conclude that MC would likely have helped reduce syphilis in Victorian times and, in the current era, will help lower both syphilis and HIV, so improving global public health.

HIV prevention costs and their predictors: evidence from the ORPHEA Project in Kenya.

We estimate costs and their predictors for three HIV prevention interventions in Kenya: HIV testing and counselling (HTC), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC). As part of the 'Optimizing the Response of Prevention: HIV Efficiency in Africa' (ORPHEA) project, we collected retrospective data from government and non-governmental health facilities for 2011-12. We used multi-stage sampling to determine a sample of health facilities by type, ownership, size and interventions offered totalling 144 sites in 78 health facilities in 33 districts across Kenya. Data sources included key informants, registers and time-motion observation methods. Total costs of production were computed using both quantity and unit price of each input. Average cost was estimated by dividing total cost per intervention by number of clients accessing the intervention. Multivariate regression methods were used to analyse predictors of log-transformed average costs. Average costs were $7 and $79 per HTC and PMTCT client tested, respectively; and $66 per VMMC procedure. Results show evidence of economies of scale for PMTCT and VMMC: increasing the number of clients per year by 100% was associated with cost reductions of 50% for PMTCT, and 45% for VMMC. Task shifting was associated with reduced costs for both PMTCT (59%) and VMMC (54%). Costs in hospitals were higher for PMTCT (56%) in comparison to non-hospitals. Facilities that performed testing based on risk factors as opposed to universal screening had higher HTC average costs (79%). Lower VMMC costs were associated with availability of male reproductive health services (59%) and presence of community advisory board (52%). Aside from increasing production scale, HIV prevention costs may be contained by using task shifting, non-hospital sites, service integration and community supervision.