The impact of wildlife and environmental factors on hantavirus infection in the host and its translation into human risk.

Identifying factors that drive infection dynamics in reservoir host populations is essential in understanding human risk from wildlife-originated zoonoses. We studied zoonotic Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in the host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), populations in relation to the host population, rodent and predator community and environment-related factors and whether these processes are translated into human infection incidence. We used 5-year rodent trapping and bank vole PUUV serology data collected from 30 sites located in 24 municipalities in Finland. We found that PUUV seroprevalence in the host was negatively associated with the abundance of red foxes, but this process did not translate into human disease incidence, which showed no association with PUUV seroprevalence. The abundance of weasels, the proportion of juvenile bank voles in the host populations and rodent species diversity were negatively associated with the abundance index of PUUV positive bank voles, which, in turn, showed a positive association with human disease incidence. Our results suggest certain predators, a high proportion of young bank vole individuals, and a diverse rodent community, may reduce PUUV risk for humans through their negative impacts on the abundance of infected bank voles.

Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk.

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease-diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g. infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through the calculation of the community-level basic reproductive ratio R0, an index of invasion potential, persistence, and maximum prevalence of a pathogen in a wildlife assemblage. For density-dependent diseases, we found that, in addition to tropical areas which are commonly viewed as infectious disease hotspots, northern temperate latitudes included high-risk areas. We also forecasted the effects of climate change and habitat loss from 2015 to 2035. Over this period, many local assemblages showed no net loss of species richness, but the assemblage composition (i.e. the mix of species and their abundances) changed considerably. Simultaneously, most areas experienced a decreased risk of density-dependent diseases but an increased risk of frequency-dependent diseases. We further explored the factors driving these changes in disease risk. Our results suggest that biodiversity and changes therein jointly influence disease risk. Understanding these changes and their drivers and ultimately identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots can help health officials prioritize resource distribution.

Horizontal and vertical diversity jointly shape food web stability against small and large perturbations.

The biodiversity of food webs is composed of horizontal (i.e. within trophic levels) and vertical diversity (i.e. the number of trophic levels). Understanding their joint effect on stability is a key challenge. Theory mostly considers their individual effects and focuses on small perturbations near equilibrium in hypothetical food webs. Here, we study the joint effects of horizontal and vertical diversity on the stability of hypothetical (modelled) and empirical food webs. In modelled food webs, horizontal and vertical diversity increased and decreased stability, respectively, with a stronger positive effect of producer diversity on stability at higher consumer diversity. Experiments with an empirical plankton food web, where we manipulated horizontal and vertical diversity and measured stability from species interactions and from resilience against large perturbations, confirmed these predictions. Taken together, our findings highlight the need to conserve horizontal biodiversity at different trophic levels to ensure stability.

Risk factors for Lyme disease: A scale-dependent effect of host species diversity and a consistent negative effect of host phylogenetic diversity.

Biodiversity can influence disease risk. One example of a diversity-disease relationship is the dilution effect, which suggests higher host species diversity (often indexed by species richness) reduces disease risk. While numerous studies support the dilution effect, its generality remains controversial. Most studies of diversity-disease relationships have overlooked the potential importance of phylogenetic diversity. Furthermore, most studies have tested diversity-disease relationships at one spatial scale, even though such relationships are likely scale dependent. Using Lyme disease as a model system, we investigated the effects of host species richness and phylogenetic relatedness on the number of reported Lyme disease cases in humans in the U.S.A. at two spatial scales (the county level and the state level) using piecewise structural equation modelling. We also accounted for relevant climatic and habitat-related factors and tested their correlations with the number of Lyme disease cases. We found that species assemblages with more related species (i.e., host species in the order Rodentia) were associated with more Lyme disease cases in humans. Host species richness correlated negatively with the number of Lyme disease cases at the state level (i.e., a dilution effect), a pattern that might be explained by the higher number of reservoir-incompetent species at high levels of species richness at this larger spatial scale. In contrast, a positive correlation was found between species richness and the number of Lyme disease cases at the county level, where a higher proportion of rodent species was associated with higher levels of species richness, potentially amplifying the disease risk. Our results highlight that analyse at a single spatial scale can miss some impacts of biodiversity on human health. Thus, multi-scale analyses with consideration of host phylogenetic diversity are critical for improving our understanding of diversity-disease relationships.

Relationships of temperature and biodiversity with stability of natural aquatic food webs.

Temperature and biodiversity changes occur in concert, but their joint effects on ecological stability of natural food webs are unknown. Here, we assess these relationships in 19 planktonic food webs. We estimate stability as structural stability (using the volume contraction rate) and temporal stability (using the temporal variation of species abundances). Warmer temperatures were associated with lower structural and temporal stability, while biodiversity had no consistent effects on either stability property. While species richness was associated with lower structural stability and higher temporal stability, Simpson diversity was associated with higher temporal stability. The responses of structural stability were linked to disproportionate contributions from two trophic groups (predators and consumers), while the responses of temporal stability were linked both to synchrony of all species within the food web and distinctive contributions from three trophic groups (predators, consumers, and producers). Our results suggest that, in natural ecosystems, warmer temperatures can erode ecosystem stability, while biodiversity changes may not have consistent effects.

Comparing the Climatic and Landscape Risk Factors for Lyme Disease Cases in the Upper Midwest and Northeast United States.

Lyme disease, recognized as one of the most important vector-borne diseases worldwide, has been increasing in incidence and spatial extend in United States. In the Northeast and Upper Midwest, Lyme disease is transmitted by Ixodes scapularis. Currently, many studies have been conducted to identify factors influencing Lyme disease risk in the Northeast, however, relatively few studies focused on the Upper Midwest. In this study, we explored and compared the climatic and landscape factors that shape the spatial patterns of human Lyme cases in these two regions, using the generalized linear mixed models. Our results showed that climatic variables generally had opposite correlations with Lyme disease risk, while landscape factors usually had similar effects in these two regions. High precipitation and low temperature were correlated with high Lyme disease risk in the Upper Midwest, while with low Lyme disease risk in the Northeast. In both regions, size and fragmentation related factors of residential area showed positive correlations with Lyme disease risk. Deciduous forests and evergreen forests had opposite effects on Lyme disease risk, but the effects were consistent between two regions. In general, this study provides new insight into understanding the differences of risk factors of human Lyme disease risk in these two regions.

Will legal international rhino horn trade save wild rhino populations?

Wild vertebrate populations all over the globe are in decline, with poaching being the second-most-important cause. The high poaching rate of rhinoceros may drive these species into extinction within the coming decades. Some stakeholders argue to lift the ban on international rhino horn trade to potentially benefit rhino conservation, as current interventions appear to be insufficient. We reviewed scientific and grey literature to scrutinize the validity of reasoning behind the potential benefit of legal horn trade for wild rhino populations. We identified four mechanisms through which legal trade would impact wild rhino populations, of which only the increased revenue for rhino farmers could potentially benefit rhino conservation. Conversely, the global demand for rhino horn is likely to increase to a level that cannot be met solely by legal supply. Moreover, corruption is omnipresent in countries along the trade routes, which has the potential to negatively affect rhino conservation. Finally, programmes aimed at reducing rhino horn demand will be counteracted through trade legalization by removing the stigma on consuming rhino horn. Combining these insights and comparing them with criteria for sustainable wildlife farming, we conclude that legalizing rhino horn trade will likely negatively impact the remaining wild rhino populations. To preserve rhino species, we suggest to prioritize reducing corruption within rhino horn trade, increasing the rhino population within well-protected 'safe havens' and implementing educational programmes and law enforcement targeted at rhino horn consumers.