Association between genetic variants in adhesion molecules and outcomes after hematopoietic cell transplants.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) is associated with a high morbidity and mortality. Adhesion molecules play an important role in endothelial activation and initiation of inflammatory response. We hypothesized that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the endothelial molecules may contribute to heterogeneity in HCT outcomes. We evaluated the association of 4 SNPs in ICAM1 (rs5498), PECAM1 (rs668 and rs1131012) and SELL (rs2229569) genes with acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) and those experiencing transplant-related mortality (TRM) within 1 year among 425 allogeneic HCT recipient-donor pairs. Using a Fine and Gray proportional hazards model to evaluate the association between genetic variants and clinical outcomes, after adjustment for recipient age, race, diagnosis, disease status, gender mismatch, cytomegalovirus serostatus, gender, donor type, conditioning regimen and year of transplant, only rs5498 in the ICAM1 gene among both recipients and donors was associated with a decreased risk of TRM (P ≤ 0.02). None of the SNPs were associated with acute or chronic GvHD risk. These findings suggest that genetic variants in the vascular adhesion molecules may be used to identify patients at high risk for TRM.

Worldwide Network for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (WBMT) recommendations for establishing a hematopoietic stem cell transplantation program in countries with limited resources (Part II): Clinical, technical and socio-economic considerations.

The development of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) programs can face significant challenges in most developing countries because such endeavors must compete with other government health care priorities, including the delivery of basic services. While this is may be a limiting factor, these countries should prioritize development of the needed expertise to offer state of the art treatments including transplantation, by providing financial, technological, legal, ethical and other needed support. This would prove beneficial in providing successful programs customized to the needs of their population, and potentially provide long-term cost-savings by circumventing the need for their citizens to seek care abroad. Costs of establishing HSCT program and the costs of the HSCT procedure itself can be substantial barriers in developing countries. Additionally, socioeconomic factors intrinsic to specific countries can influence access to HSCT, patient eligibility for HSCT and timely utilization of HSCT center capabilities. This report describes recommendations from the Worldwide Network for Blood and Marrow Transplantation (WBMT) for establishing HSCT programs with a specific focus on developing countries, and identifies challenges and opportunities for providing this specialized procedure in the resource constrained setting.

Unrelated donor allogeneic transplantation for adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a review.

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia is highly sensitive to induction chemotherapy; however, long-term survival in adults has been less than 35%, primarily as a result of high relapse rate. Treatment for relapsed disease is even less successful. The optimal post-remission therapy in the first complete remission offers the best opportunity for leukemia-free survival. Allogeneic donor stem cell transplantation can offer a unique anti-leukemia effect and a potential for extended survival. We will discuss advances in unrelated donor (URD) stem cells transplantation, improvements in transplantation process and supportive care along with growing experience with umbilical cord blood (UCB) allografts.

Long-term outcomes of adults with acute lymphoblastic leukemia after autologous or unrelated donor bone marrow transplantation: a comparative analysis by the National Marrow Donor Program and Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research.

For adults with high-risk or recurrent ALL who lack a suitable sibling donor, the decision between autologous (Auto) and unrelated donor (URD) hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is difficult due to variable risks of relapse and treatment-related mortality (TRM). We analysed data from two transplant registries to determine outcomes between Auto and URD HSCT for 260 adult ALL patients in first (CR1) or second (CR2) CR. All patients received a myeloablative conditioning regimen. The median follow-up was 77 (range 12-170) months. TRM at 1 year post transplant was significantly higher with URD HSCT; however, there were minimal differences in TRM according to disease status. Relapse was higher with Auto HSCT and was increased in patients transplanted in CR2. Five-year leukemia-free (37 vs 39%) and overall survival (OS) rates (38 vs 39%) were similar for Auto HSCT vs URD HSCT in CR1. There were trends favoring URD HSCT in CR2. The long-term follow-up in this analysis demonstrated that either Auto or URD HSCT could result in long-term leukaemia-free survival and OS for adult ALL patients. The optimal time (CR1 vs CR2) and technique to perform HSCT remains an important clinical question for adult ALL patients.

Donor and recipient plasma follistatin levels are associated with acute GvHD in Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network 0402.

Follistatin is an angiogenic factor elevated in the circulation after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). Elevations in follistatin plasma concentrations are associated with the onset of and poor survival after acute GvHD (aGvHD). Using data from the Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network 0402 study (n=247), we sought to further quantify the longitudinal associations between plasma follistatin levels in transplant recipients, as well as baseline HCT donor follistatin levels, and allogeneic HCT outcomes. Higher recipient baseline follistatin levels were predictive of development of aGvHD (P=0.04). High donor follistatin levels were also associated with the incidence of aGvHD (P<0.01). Elevated follistatin levels on day 28 were associated with the onset of grade II-IV aGvHD before day 28, higher 1-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) and lower overall survival. In multivariate analyses, individuals with follistatin levels >1088 pg/mL at day 28 had a 4-fold increased risk for NRM (relative risk (RR)=4.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9-9.9, P<0.01) and a nearly three-fold increased overall risk for mortality (RR=2.8, 95% CI 1.5-5.2, P<0.01). Given the multiple roles of follistatin in tissue inflammation and repair, and the confirmation that this biomarker is predictive of important HCT outcomes, the pathobiology of these relationships need further study.

Origins of circulating endothelial cells and endothelial outgrowth from blood.

Normal adults have a small number of circulating endothelial cells (CEC) in peripheral blood, and endothelial outgrowth has been observed from cultures of blood. In this study we seek insight into the origins of CEC and endothelial outgrowth from cultures of blood. Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis of blood samples from bone marrow transplant recipients who had received gender-mismatched transplants 5-20 months earlier showed that most CEC in fresh blood had recipient genotype. Endothelial outgrowth from the same blood samples after 9 days in culture (5-fold expansion) was still predominantly of the recipient genotype. In contrast, endothelial outgrowth after approximately 1 month (102-fold expansion) was mostly of donor genotype. Thus, recipient-genotype endothelial cells expanded only approximately 20-fold over this period, whereas donor-genotype endothelial cells expanded approximately 1000-fold. These data suggest that most CEC in fresh blood originate from vessel walls and have limited growth capability. Conversely, the data indicate that outgrowth of endothelial cells from cultures of blood is mostly derived from transplantable marrow-derived cells. Because these cells have more delayed outgrowth but a greater proliferative rate, our data suggest that they are derived from circulating angioblasts.

Difficult stem cell mobilization despite adequate CD34+ cell dose predicts shortened progression free and overall survival after autologous HSCT for lymphoma.

Hematopoietic growth factors alone or in combination with myelosuppressive chemotherapy are used to mobilize peripheral blood stem cells for autologous transplantation. To identify characteristics of successful mobilization with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) alone and to study the impact of immediate chemotherapy mobilization following G-CSF mobilization, we treated 175 chemotherapy sensitive lymphoma patients with G-CSF (G) mobilization and leukapheresis followed by chemotherapy plus G-CSF (CG) mobilization and leukapheresis and then autologous transplantation. Patients with stage I/II disease at diagnosis and < or =5 years from diagnosis were more likely to mobilize successfully with G-CSF alone (G). CG mobilization led to superior stem cell yields compared to the preceding mobilization with G (median 2.37 vs 1.37 ( x 10(6)CD34+ cells/kg); P<0.0001). Patients (n=58, 33%) with successful G-CSF mobilization (> or =2 x 10(6) CD34+ cells/kg) had quicker platelet recovery and improved progression free and overall survival compared to patients who had adequate collection only after chemotherapy mobilization or to those who failed to collect an adequate graft with either type of mobilization. The poor clinical outcome of patients with difficult mobilization using either method identifies them as a high-risk group who might benefit from alternative therapies.

Fludarabine vs cladribine plus busulfan and low-dose TBI as reduced intensity conditioning for allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: a prospective randomized trial.

Purine analogs are often used for conditioning preceding allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT). We prospectively tested fludarabine (Flu) 40 mg/m(2)/day x 5 days vs cladribine (Clad) 10 mg/m(2)/day x 5 days plus oral busulfan (1 mg/kg q6 h x 2 days) and total body irradiation 200 cGy in 32 recipients of matched sibling and unrelated donor (URD) HCT. Patients were similar in age (median 52 years), diagnosis, extensive pre-HCT therapy (56 vs 63%), and high-risk disease status (81 vs 93%). Neutrophil engraftment was prompt (median 11 vs 12 days), but early graft failure using Clad halted randomization. Platelet recovery was prompt (median Flu 18 vs Clad 24 days). Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) after Flu vs Clad was similar; (acute grade II/IV 56 vs 69%, P=0.26; chronic 50 vs 31%, P=0.27). Nonrelapse mortality (Flu 25 vs Clad 38%, P=0.47) and progression-free survival at 3 years were similar as well. Multivariate analyses showed slightly, but not significantly lower relative risk (RR) of neutrophil engraftment with Clad (RR 0.6 (95% CI 0.2-1.3) P=0.16) and with URD RR 0.4 (0.2-1.0) P=0.04). Older patients with advanced hematologic malignancies achieve satisfactory outcomes using either of these reduced intensity conditioning regimens.

Association between single nucleotide polymorphisms of tumor necrosis factor gene and grade II-IV acute GvHD: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Acute GvHD (aGvHD) complicates up to 50% of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplants and pre-transplant estimation of its risk can guide prophylaxis, monitoring and early intervention strategies. Inspired by the role of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) in the pathogenesis of aGvHD and the inconsistency of the association studies exploring single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the TNF gene, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the available reports using PubMed and EMBASE. Original human studies reporting on the association between recipient TNF SNPs and grade II-IV aGvHD in a format convertible to effect size and confidence interval were included. One of the two most widely investigated SNPs (rs361525G>A) was marginally associated with increased risk of grade II-IV aGvHD in random-effects meta-analysis of six studies (627 patients in total, risk ratio=1.29, 95% confidence interval=0.99-1.69, P=0.06). If this result is validated in a large cohort with uniform conditioning and GvHD prophylaxis, TNF rs361525G>A may become a useful tool for aGvHD risk estimation before the transplant.

Improving outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for Hodgkin lymphoma in the brentuximab vedotin era.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) remains a valuable treatment alternative for relapsed/refractory (R/R) Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). Data on alloHCT outcomes in the era of new HL therapies are needed. We evaluated 72R/R HL patients who received reduced intensity conditioning alloHCT and compared the time periods 2009-2013 (n=20) with 2000-2008 (n=52). Grafts included HLA-matched sibling (35%), unrelated donor (8%) and umbilical cord blood (56%). In the recent period, patients more often received brentuximab vedotin (BV, 60% vs 2%), had fewer comorbidities (Sorror index 0: 60% vs 12%) and were in complete remission (50% vs 23%). Median follow-up was 4.4 years. Three-year PFS improved for patients treated between 2009 and 2013 (49%, 95% CI 26-68%) as compared with the earlier era (23%, 95% CI 13-35%, P=0.02). Overall survival (OS) at 3 years was 84% (95% CI 57-94%) vs 50% (95% CI 36-62%, P=0.01), reflecting lower non-relapse mortality and relapse rates. In multivariate analysis mortality was higher among those with chemoresistance (HR 3.83, 95% CI 1.38-10.57), while treatment during the recent era was associated with better OS (HR for period 2009-2013: 0.24, 95% CI 0.07-0.79) and PFS (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.92). AlloHCT in patients with R/R HL is now a more effective treatment than previously.

Upper GI GVHD: similar outcomes to other grade II graft-versus-host disease.

The significance of upper gastrointestinal tract (UGI) acute GVHD (aGVHD) compared with other grade II aGVHD is not clearly defined. We compared the outcomes of patients with grade II aGVHD with or without biopsy-proven UGI involvement in three groups: grade II aGVHD without UGI (n=178), grade II aGVHD with UGI and other sites (n=102) and isolated UGI aGVHD (n=32). The overall response (ORR) to steroids at day 28 differed among the three groups (76, 67 and 91%, respectively, P=0.01), but was only marginally different in direct comparison with those without or with UGI aGVHD (P=0.07) or with isolated UGI aGVHD (P=0.06). In multivariate analysis, as compared with grade II aGVHD patients without UGI involvement, those with UGI involvement and those with isolated UGI aGVHD had similar risks of chronic GVHD, relapse and non-relapse mortality and similar disease-free survival and overall survival. Our data suggest that patients with UGI aGVHD have similar outcomes as those without UGI involvement, supporting the view that UGI aGVHD should still be included as a grade II-defining event.

Outcomes of UCB transplantation are comparable in FLT3+ AML: results of CIBMTR, EUROCORD and EBMT collaborative analysis.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) from siblings or unrelated donors (URD) during complete remission (CR) may improve leukemia-free survival (LFS) in FMS-like tyrosine kinase 3+ (FLT3+) acute myeloid leukemia (AML), which has poor prognosis because of high relapse rates. Umbilical cord blood (UCB) HCT outcomes are largely unknown in this population. We found that compared with sibling HCT, relapse risks were similar after UCB (n=126) (hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, P=0.54) and URD (n=91) (HR 0.81, P=0.43). UCB HCT was associated with statistically higher non-relapse mortality compared with sibling HCT (HR 2.32, P=0.02), but not vs URD (HR 1.72, P=0.07). All three cohorts had statistically nonsignificant 3-year LFS: 39% (95% confidence interval (CI): 30-47) after UCB, 43% (95% CI: 30-54) after sibling and 50% (95% CI: 40-60) after URD. Chronic graft-versus-host disease rates were significantly lower after UCB compared with either sibling (HR 0.59, P=0.03) or URD (HR 0.49, P=0.001). Adverse factors for LFS included high leukocyte count at diagnosis and HCT during CR2 (second CR). UCB is a suitable option for adults with FLT3+ AML in the absence of an human leukocyte antigen-matched sibling and its immediate availability may be particularly important for FLT3+ AML where early relapse is common, thus allowing HCT in CR1 (first CR) when outcomes are best.

Low EGF in myeloablative allotransplantation: association with severe acute GvHD in BMT CTN 0402.

Epidermal growth factor (EGF) is a recently described biomarker of acute GvHD (aGvHD). Whether low plasma EGF prior to hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) predisposes to the development of aGvHD, or whether EGF levels fall because of severe aGvHD, is unknown. To evaluate this, we tested plasma samples collected at pre-HCT baseline, day +28 and day +100 during the course of the Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network (BMT CTN) 0402. We found that baseline EGF plasma concentrations were three-fold lower in HCT recipients compared to donors (24.3 vs 76.0 pg/mL, P<0.01). Ninety-one patients (43%) had a markedly low plasma EGF at pre-HCT baseline, defined as <2.7 pg/mL-an optimal cutpoint associated with development of grade III-IV aGvHD. Patients with these low EGF levels at pre-HCT baseline had a 2.9-fold increased risk of grade III-IV aGvHD by day +100. Patients with low EGF at day +28 after HCT had an increased risk of death (relative risk 2.3, P=0.02) by 1 year due to transplant-related toxicities, especially aGvHD. Our results suggest that very low plasma EGF early in the HCT process may predispose patients to an increased risk of death, potentially due to epithelial damage and limited repair capacity.

Alveolar hemorrhage following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation using reduced-intensity conditioning.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) using reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) has lower morbidity and mortality compared to transplantation using myeloablative conditioning (MAC). The syndrome of alveolar hemorrhage, a life-threatening pulmonary complication of HCT, has not been well described after RIC HCT. We reviewed prospectively collected data on 206 RIC and 1112 MAC HCT performed between 1995 and 2004 to study the impact of conditioning regimen on the clinical features and outcome of alveolar hemorrhage. Alveolar hemorrhage occurred in 18 RIC HCT recipients (cumulative incidence 8% (95% confidence intervals (CI), 5-11%)) and 85 MAC HCT recipients (cumulative incidence 7% (95% CI, 6-8%), P = 0.56). The clinical presentation of hemorrhage in both cohorts was similar. Survival at 60 days from the onset of hemorrhage was 28% (95% CI, 7-49%) for RIC group compared to 26% (95% CI, 17-35%) after MAC HCT (P = 0.56). Reducing the intensity of preparative regimen does not protect against post transplant alveolar hemorrhage. Alveolar hemorrhage occurring after RIC or MAC HCT has similar incidence, clinical presentation, and associated high mortality.

Prevalence of conception and pregnancy outcomes after hematopoietic cell transplantation: report from the Bone Marrow Transplant Survivor Study.

We conducted a retrospective study to describe the magnitude of compromise in reproductive function and investigate pregnancy outcomes in 619 women and partners of men treated with autologous (n=241) or allogeneic (n=378) hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) between 21 and 45 years of age, and surviving 2 or more years. Median age at HCT was 33.3 years and median time since HCT 7.7 years. Mailed questionnaires captured pregnancies and their outcomes (live birth, stillbirth, miscarriage). Thirty-four patients reported 54 pregnancies after HCT (26 males, 40 pregnancies; eight females, 14 pregnancies), of which 46 resulted in live births. Factors associated with reporting no conception included older age at HCT (> or =30 years: odds ratio (OR)=4.8), female sex (OR=3.0), and total body irradiation (OR=3.3). Prevalence of conception and pregnancy outcomes in HCT survivors were compared to those of 301 nearest-age siblings. Although the risk for not reporting a conception was significantly increased among HCT survivors (OR=36), survivors were not significantly more likely than siblings to report miscarriage or stillbirth (OR=0.7). Although prevalence of conception is diminished after HCT, if pregnancy does occur, outcome is likely to be favorable. Patients should be counseled prior to transplant regarding strategies to preserve fertility.

Lymphodepleting chemotherapy with donor lymphocyte infusion post-allogeneic HCT for hematological malignancies is associated with severe, but therapy-responsive aGvHD.

Donor lymphocyte infusion (DLI) is an option for relapsed hematologic malignancies or incomplete chimerism of non-malignant diseases following allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We analyzed the incidence of acute GvHD (aGvHD) in patients treated with DLI. From 1995 to 2013, 171 DLIs were given to 120 patients. The cumulative incidence of post-DLI grade II-IV aGvHD was 33% (CI 25-42%, n=40; 12 grade II), and of grade III-IV 24% (CI 16-32%, n=28). GvHD after DLI (n=46) involved the skin in 70% (n=32), lower gastrointestinal (GI) 65% (n=30), upper GI 43% (n=20) and liver 35% (n=16). Patients receiving chemotherapy accompanying the DLI (chemo-DLI) (n=37) had more frequent aGvHD and particularly lower GI GvHD. Risk factors for grade II-IV aGvHD included age >40, chemo-DLI, malignant disease and time from HCT to DLI <200 days. aGvHD response to treatment at 8 weeks was complete in 40% and complete/partial (CR/PR) in 52%. Chemo-DLI had higher response rates to aGVHD treatment in non-CML malignancies. We observed frequent, yet therapy-responsive aGvHD following DLI. GI GvHD in particular is a significant risk when giving chemotherapy prior to DLI. Improvements in DLI efficacy and GvHD management are still needed.

Novel disease burden assessment predicts allogeneic transplantation outcomes in myelodysplastic syndrome.

Among patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) undergoing hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), the impact of residual pretransplant cytogenetically abnormal cells on outcomes remains uncertain. We analyzed HCT outcomes by time of transplant disease variables, including (1) blast percentage, (2) percentage of cytogenetically abnormal cells and (3) Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (R-IPSS) cytogenetic classification. We included 82 MDS patients (median age 51 years (range 18-71)) transplanted between 1995 and 2013 with abnormal diagnostic cytogenetics. Patients with higher percentages of cytogenetically abnormal cells experienced inferior 5-year survival (37-76% abnormal cells: relative risk (RR) 2.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-7.2; P=0.02; and 77-100% abnormal cells: RR 5.6; 95% CI 1.9-19.6; P<0.01). Patients with >10% blasts also had inferior 5-year survival (RR 2.9; 95% CI 1.1-7.2; P=0.02) versus patients with ⩽2% blasts. Even among patients with ⩽2% blasts, patients with 77-100% cytogenetically abnormal cells had poor survival (RR 4.4; 95% CI 1.1-18.3; P=0.04). Increased non-relapse mortality (NRM) was observed with both increasing blast percentages (P<0.01) and cytogenetically abnormal cells at transplant (P=0.01) in multivariate analysis. We observed no impact of disease burden characteristics on relapse outcomes due to high 1-year NRM. In conclusion, both blast percentage and percentage of cytogenetically abnormal cells reflect MDS disease burden and predict post-HCT outcomes.

CD56dimCD57+NKG2C+ NK cell expansion is associated with reduced leukemia relapse after reduced intensity HCT.

We have recently described a specialized subset of human natural killer (NK) cells with a CD56(dim)CD57(+)NKG2C(+) phenotype that expand specifically in response to cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation in hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) recipients and exhibit properties characteristic of adaptive immunity. We hypothesize that these cells mediate relapse protection and improve post-HCT outcomes. In 674 allogeneic HCT recipients, we found that those who reactivated CMV had lower leukemia relapse (26% (17-35%), P=0.05) and superior disease-free survival (DFS) (55% (45-65%) P=0.04) 1 year after reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) compared with CMV seronegative recipients who experienced higher relapse rates (35% (27-43%)) and lower DFS (46% (38-54%)). This protective effect was independent of age and graft-vs-host disease and was not observed in recipients who received myeloablative regimens. Analysis of the reconstituting NK cells demonstrated that CMV reactivation is associated with both higher frequencies and greater absolute numbers of CD56(dim)CD57(+)NKG2C(+) NK cells, particularly after RIC HCT. Furthermore, expansion of these cells at 6 months posttransplant independently trended toward a lower 2-year relapse risk. Together, our data suggest that the protective effect of CMV reactivation on posttransplant relapse is in part driven by adaptive NK cell responses.

Autologous transplant remains the preferred therapy for relapsed APL in CR2.

Despite their favorable prognosis, 10-20% of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) patients relapse. Reinduction therapy is often followed by autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (auto-HCT). Arsenic trioxide (ATO) has become part of standard reinduction and is often followed by auto-HCT. Data on patients in CR2 were collected from two large transplant registries (Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) and European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplant (EBMT)) and two specialty referral centers. The outcome of patients in CR2 who received only ATO-based therapy as reinduction was retrospectively compared with those who got an auto-HCT, with or without ATO. Prognostic factors included age, disease risk, extramedullary disease and duration of CR1. Of 207 evaluable patients, the median age was 31.5 years, 15.3% had extramedullary disease and median WBC at diagnosis was 4.8 × 10(9)/L. Sixty-seven patients received ATO alone and 140 underwent auto-HCT. The groups were comparable for age, gender, extramedullary disease, risk group and duration of CR1. At 5 years, overall survival (OS) was 42% and 78% for the ATO-only and auto-HCT groups, respectively (P<0.001). In addition, OS was associated with longer duration of CR1 (P=0.002), but not with disease risk at diagnosis. These data suggest that auto-HCT for APL patients in CR2 results in better OS than ATO-based therapy alone.

Survival after relapse of low-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: implications for marrow transplantation.

PURPOSE: Despite modern therapy, patients with low-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHLs) have a median survival of only 7 to 10 years. To determine factors that predict for short survival after relapse and thus to identify candidates for intensive investigational studies including bone marrow transplantation, we have analyzed the combined results of three Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) trials of initial chemotherapy for lymphoma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All 466 patients who achieved initial complete response (CR) or partial response (PR) and had a subsequent relapse were evaluated (median follow-up, 12.6 years). Multivariate regression analysis within a training set (two thirds of cases) was verified in the remaining one-third (validation set) of cases. RESULTS: Age younger than 60 years, CR, and response duration were significantly associated with longer survival after relapse. Multivariate analysis developed a predictive model that identified shorter survival in patients greater than or equal to 60 years, regardless of CR or response duration. Patients younger than 60 years with an initial CR of more than 1 year had a median survival of 5.9 years, those with a PR of more than 1 year had a median survival of 4.2 years, and those with a CR or PR of less than or equal to 1 year, 2.4 years (P less than .0001). Even the most favorable group had a 10-fold greater mortality compared with age-adjusted United States population rates. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that patients with low-grade NHLs with a less than or equal to 1-year response period have poor survival after relapse and may be candidates for aggressive salvage therapy, including transplantation. Longer initial responses lead to better survival after relapse. Clinical trials seeking to demonstrate an advantage for new treatments including transplantation will require long follow-up and comparison to control populations for meaningful analysis.