Local-scale phylodynamics reveal differential community impact of SARS-CoV-2 in a metropolitan US county.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission is largely driven by heterogeneous dynamics at a local scale, leaving local health departments to design interventions with limited information. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled between February 2020 and March 2022 jointly with epidemiological and cell phone mobility data to investigate fine scale spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in King County, Washington, a diverse, metropolitan US county. We applied an approximate structured coalescent approach to model transmission within and between North King County and South King County alongside the rate of outside introductions into the county. Our phylodynamic analyses reveal that following stay-at-home orders, the epidemic trajectories of North and South King County began to diverge. We find that South King County consistently had more reported and estimated cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and longer persistence of local viral transmission when compared to North King County, where viral importations from outside drove a larger proportion of new cases. Using mobility and demographic data, we also find that South King County experienced a more modest and less sustained reduction in mobility following stay-at-home orders than North King County, while also bearing more socioeconomic inequities that might contribute to a disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, our findings suggest a role for local-scale phylodynamics in understanding the heterogeneous transmission landscape.

Genomic epidemiology and evolution of rhinovirus in western Washington State, 2021-22.

BACKGROUND: Human rhinoviruses (RV) primarily cause the common cold, but infection outcomes vary from subclinical to severe cases, including asthma exacerbations and fatal pneumonia in immunocompromised individuals. To date, therapeutic strategies have been hindered by the high diversity of serotypes. Global surveillance efforts have traditionally focused on sequencing VP1 or VP2/VP4 genetic regions, leaving gaps in our understanding of RV genomic diversity. METHODS: We sequenced 1,078 RV genomes from nasal swabs of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals to explore viral evolution during two epidemiologically distinct periods in Washington State: when the COVID-19 pandemic affected the circulation of other seasonal respiratory viruses except for RV (February - July 2021), and when the seasonal viruses reemerged with the severe RSV and influenza outbreak (November-December 2022). We constructed maximum likelihood and BEAST-phylodynamic trees to characterize intra-genotype evolution. RESULTS: We detected 99 of 168 known genotypes and observed inter-genotypic recombination and genotype cluster swapping from 2021 to 2022. We found a significant association between the presence of symptoms and viral load, but not with RV species or genotype. Phylodynamic trees, polyprotein selection pressure, and Shannon entropy revealed co-circulation of divergent clades within genotypes with high amino acid constraints throughout polyprotein. DISCUSSION: Our study underscores the dynamic nature of RV genomic epidemiology within a localized geographic region, as more than 20% of existing genotypes within each RV species co-circulated each studied month. Our findings also emphasize the importance of investigating correlations between rhinovirus genotypes and serotypes to understand long-term immunity and cross-protection.

Local-Scale phylodynamics reveal differential community impact of SARS-CoV-2 in metropolitan US county.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission is largely driven by heterogeneous dynamics at a local scale, leaving local health departments to design interventions with limited information. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled between February 2020 and March 2022 jointly with epidemiological and cell phone mobility data to investigate fine scale spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in King County, Washington, a diverse, metropolitan US county. We applied an approximate structured coalescent approach to model transmission within and between North King County and South King County alongside the rate of outside introductions into the county. Our phylodynamic analyses reveal that following stay-at-home orders, the epidemic trajectories of North and South King County began to diverge. We find that South King County consistently had more reported and estimated cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and longer persistence of local viral transmission when compared to North King County, where viral importations from outside drove a larger proportion of new cases. Using mobility and demographic data, we also find that South King County experienced a more modest and less sustained reduction in mobility following stay-at-home orders than North King County, while also bearing more socioeconomic inequities that might contribute to a disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, our findings suggest a role for local-scale phylodynamics in understanding the heterogeneous transmission landscape.