The serum small non-coding RNA (SncRNA) landscape as a molecular biomarker of age associated muscle dysregulation and insulin resistance in older adults.

Small noncoding RNAs (sncRNAs) are implicated in age-associated pathologies, including sarcopenia and insulin resistance (IR). As potential circulating biomarkers, most studies have focussed on microRNAs (miRNAs), one class of sncRNA. This study characterized the wider circulating sncRNA transcriptome of older individuals and associations with sarcopenia and IR. sncRNA expression including miRNAs, transfer RNAs (tRNAs), tRNA-associated fragments (tRFs), and piwi-interacting RNAs (piRNAs) was measured in serum from 21 healthy and 21 sarcopenic Hertfordshire Sarcopenia Study extension women matched for age (mean 78.9 years) and HOMA2-IR. Associations with age, sarcopenia and HOMA2-IR were examined and predicted gene targets and biological pathways characterized. Of the total sncRNA among healthy controls, piRNAs were most abundant (85.3%), followed by tRNAs (4.1%), miRNAs (2.7%), and tRFs (0.5%). Age was associated (FDR < 0.05) with 2 miRNAs, 58 tRNAs, and 14 tRFs, with chromatin organization, WNT signaling, and response to stress enriched among gene targets. Sarcopenia was nominally associated (p < .05) with 12 tRNAs, 3 tRFs, and 6 piRNAs, with target genes linked to cell proliferation and differentiation such as Notch Receptor 1 (NOTCH1), DISC1 scaffold protein (DISC1), and GLI family zinc finger-2 (GLI2). HOMA2-IR was nominally associated (p<0.05) with 6 miRNAs, 9 tRNAs, 1 tRF, and 19 piRNAs, linked with lysine degradation, circadian rhythm, and fatty acid biosynthesis pathways. These findings identify changes in circulating sncRNA expression in human serum associated with chronological age, sarcopenia, and IR. These may have clinical utility as circulating biomarkers of ageing and age-associated pathologies and provide novel targets for therapeutic intervention.

Fracture Risk and Health Profiles Differ According to Relationship Status: Findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

Registry studies have suggested associations between relationship status and fracture risk. We considered associations between relationship status and incident fracture in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study, comprising community-dwelling older adults, and explored associations between socioeconomic and lifestyle factors with relationship status. 2997 participants completed a baseline questionnaire (1998-2004) and clinic visit. Participants were followed up until December 2018 using Hospital Episode Statistics, which report clinical outcomes using codes from the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10); these codes were used to ascertain incident fractures. Relationship status (not currently married/cohabiting vs currently married/cohabiting) at baseline was examined in relation to incident fracture using Cox regression. Associations between baseline characteristics and relationship status were examined using logistic regression. Mean baseline age was 66.2 years. 80% were married/cohabiting at baseline; 15% had an incident fracture (mean (SD) follow-up duration: 14.4 (4.5) years). The following were related to greater likelihood of not being married/cohabiting: older age (women only); higher BMI (women only); current smoking; high alcohol consumption (men only); poorer diet quality (men only); lower physical activity; leaving school before age 15 (women only); and not owning one's home. Those not married/cohabiting had greater risk of incident fracture compared to those who were (age-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) 1.58 (1.06, 2.38) among men, 1.35 (1.06, 1.72) among women); associations were attenuated after accounting for the above factors associated with relationship status in the corresponding sex. This suggests that differences in health profiles and lifestyle according to relationship status may explain the association between relationship status and fracture risk.

The impact of HIV infection on skeletal maturity in peripubertal children in Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: HIV infection and its treatment compromises skeletal development (growth and maturation). Skeletal maturity is assessed as bone age (BA) on hand and wrist radiographs. BA younger than chronological age (CA) indicates delayed development. We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine differences between BA and CA (i.e., skeletal maturity deviation [SMD]), and risk factors associated with SMD in peripubertal children with and without HIV established on antiretroviral therapy (ART) including use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). METHODS: Children with HIV taking ART for at least two years and a comparison group of HIV-negative children, aged 8-16 years and frequency-matched by age and sex, were recruited from HIV clinics and local schools in the same catchment area, in Harare, Zimbabwe. BA was assessed from non-dominant hand-wrist radiographs using the Tanner Whitehouse 3 method. Negative SMD values correspond to delayed development, i.e., BA younger than CA. Multivariable linear regression models determined factors associated with SMD overall, and in children with HIV. RESULTS: In total, 534 participants (54% males) were included; by design CA was similar in males and females, whether living with or without HIV. Mean (SD) SMD was more negative in CWH than in HIV-negative children in both males [-1.4(1.4) vs. -0.4(1.1) years] and females [-1.1(1.3) vs. -0.0(1.2) years]. HIV infection and weight-for-age Z-score<-2 were associated with more negative SMD in both males and females after adjusting for socio-economic status, orphanhood, pubertal stage, and calcium intake. Age at ART initiation was associated with SMD in both males and females with those starting ART later more delayed: starting ART aged 4-8 years 1.14 (-1.84, -0.43), or over 8 years 1.47 (-2.30, -0.65) (p-value for trend < 0.001). Similar non-significant trends were seen in males. TDF exposure TDF exposure whether < 4years or ≥ 4 years was not associated with delayed development. CONCLUSION: Perinatally-acquired HIV infection and being underweight were independently associated with delayed skeletal maturation in both males and females. Starting ART later was independently associated with skeletal maturation delay in CWH. Given the known effects of delayed development on later health, it is important to find interventions to ensure healthy weight gain through early years and in CWH to initiate ART as early as possible.

General self-efficacy, not musculoskeletal health, was associated with social isolation and loneliness in older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Social isolation and loneliness are prevalent among older adults. This study investigated factors influencing worsening social isolation and loneliness in community-dwelling older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on musculoskeletal conditions, falls, and fractures. METHODS: We studied 153 participants from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study. Baseline assessments (2019-20) included osteoporosis, clinical osteoarthritis, fractures after age 45 years, falls in previous year, and lifestyle factors. Self-efficacy was assessed using a shortened General Self-Efficacy Scale. Social isolation was assessed using the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale. Follow-up (2020-21) assessments included social isolation and loneliness using the 6-item De Jong-Gierveld scale for emotional, social, and overall loneliness. RESULTS: Baseline median age was 83.1 years. A history of smoking predicted worsening social isolation (p = 0.046). Being married (p = 0.026) and higher self-efficacy scores (p = 0.03) predicted reduced social isolation at follow-up. Greater alcohol consumption was associated with higher overall loneliness (p = 0.026). Being married was related to a 36% (95% CI: 3%, 58%) reduction in emotional loneliness (p = 0.037). No musculoskeletal condition was associated with social isolation or loneliness. However, we observed a 22% (14%, 30%; p < 0.001) reduction in emotional loneliness and a 12% (4%, 20%; p = 0.003) reduction in overall loneliness per unit increase in self-efficacy score. CONCLUSIONS: No musculoskeletal condition was associated with increased social isolation or loneliness, but longitudinal studies in larger samples are required. Greater self-efficacy was associated with reduced social isolation and reduced loneliness. Interventions promoting self-efficacy in older adults may reduce isolation and loneliness in this age group.

Predictive value of sarcopenia components for all-cause mortality: findings from population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Low grip strength and gait speed are associated with mortality. However, investigation of the additional mortality risk explained by these measures, over and above other factors, is limited. AIM: We examined whether grip strength and gait speed improve discriminative capacity for mortality over and above more readily obtainable clinical risk factors. METHODS: Participants from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study, Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study, and the Hertfordshire Cohort Study were analysed. Appendicular lean mass (ALM) was ascertained using DXA; muscle strength by grip dynamometry; and usual gait speed over 2.4-6 m. Verified deaths were recorded. Associations between sarcopenia components and mortality were examined using Cox regression with cohort as a random effect; discriminative capacity was assessed using Harrell's Concordance Index (C-index). RESULTS: Mean (SD) age of participants (n = 8362) was 73.8(5.1) years; 5231(62.6%) died during a median follow-up time of 13.3 years. Grip strength (hazard ratio (95% CI) per SD decrease: 1.14 (1.10,1.19)) and gait speed (1.21 (1.17,1.26)), but not ALM index (1.01 (0.95,1.06)), were associated with mortality in mutually-adjusted models after accounting for age, sex, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, ethnicity, education, history of fractures and falls, femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), self-rated health, cognitive function and number of comorbidities. However, a model containing only age and sex as exposures gave a C-index (95% CI) of 0.65(0.64,0.66), which only increased to 0.67(0.67,0.68) after inclusion of grip strength and gait speed. CONCLUSIONS: Grip strength and gait speed may generate only modest adjunctive risk information for mortality compared with other more readily obtainable risk factors.

Investigating the relationship between self-perception of fracture risk and prior fracture: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Self-perceived risk of fracture (SPR) is associated with fracture independent of FRAX calculated risk. To understand this better we considered whether lifestyle factors not included in the FRAX algorithm and psychosocial factors (social isolation, self-efficacy, or mental health status) explain the relationship between SPR and fracture. METHODS: We studied 146 UK community-dwelling older adults from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study. SPR ranked as 'lower', 'similar' and 'higher' relative to others of the same age, was assessed by questionnaire. Social isolation was assessed using the six-item Lubben Social Network Scale; self-efficacy was assessed using a shortened General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSE); mental health status was assessed using the anxiety/depression item from the EuroQoL questionnaire. SPR in relation to previous self-reported fracture was examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Among participants of median age 83.4 (IQR 81.5-85.5) years, SPR was lower for 54.1% of participants, similar for 30.8%, and higher for 15.1%; 74.7% reported no previous fractures. Greater SPR was associated with increased odds of previous fractures when adjusting for sex and age only (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.03-2.87, per higher band of SPR). While further individual adjustment for social isolation (1.73, 1.04-2.89), self-efficacy (1.71, 1.02-2.85), or mental health (1.77, 1.06-2.97) did not attenuate the relationship, individual adjustment for diet quality and number of comorbidities did. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment for social isolation, self-efficacy or mental health status did not attenuate the relationship between SPR and fracture. By contrast, lifestyle factors not included in FRAX, such as diet quality, did attenuate relationships, suggesting a possible future area of investigation.

Hospital admissions and mortality over 20 years in community-dwelling older people: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Demographic changes worldwide are leading to pressures on health services, with hospital admissions representing an important contributor. Here, we report admission types experienced by older people and examine baseline risk factors for subsequent admission/death, from the community-based Hertfordshire Cohort Study. METHODS: 2997 participants (1418 women) completed a baseline questionnaire and clinic visit to characterize their health. Participants were followed up from baseline (1998-2004, aged 59-73 years) until December 2018 using UK Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data, which report clinical outcomes using ICD-10 coding. Baseline characteristics in relation to the risk of admission/death during follow-up were examined using sex-stratified univariate logistic regression. RESULTS: During follow-up, 36% of men and 26% of women died and 93% of men and 92% of women had at least one hospital admission; 6% of men and 7% of women had no admissions and were alive at end of follow-up. The most common types of admission during follow-up were cardiovascular (ever experienced: men 71%, women 68%) and respiratory (men 40%, women 34%). In both sexes, baseline risk factors that were associated (p < 0.05) with admission/death during follow-up were older age, poorer SF-36 physical function, and poorer self-rated health. In men, manual social class and a history of smoking, and in women, higher BMI, not owning one's home, and a minor trauma fracture since age 45, were also risk factors for admission/death. CONCLUSIONS: Sociodemographic factors were related to increased risk of admission/death but a small proportion experienced no admissions during this period, suggesting that healthy ageing is achievable.

Machine learning as an adjunct to expert observation in classification of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis is the most prevalent type of arthritis. Many approaches exist for characterising radiographic knee OA, including machine learning (ML). AIMS: To examine Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L) scores from ML and expert observation, minimum joint space and osteophyte in relation to pain and function. METHODS: Participants from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study, comprising individuals born in Hertfordshire from 1931 to 1939, were analysed. Radiographs were assessed by clinicians and ML (convolutional neural networks) for K&L scoring. Medial minimum joint space and osteophyte area were ascertained using the knee OA computer-aided diagnosis (KOACAD) program. The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) was administered. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was implemented for minimum joint space, osteophyte, and observer- and ML-derived K&L scores in relation to pain (WOMAC pain score > 0) and impaired function (WOMAC function score > 0). RESULTS: 359 participants (aged 71-80) were analysed. Among both sexes, discriminative capacity regarding pain and function was fairly high for observer-derived K&L scores [area under curve (AUC): 0.65 (95% CI 0.57, 0.72) to 0.70 (0.63, 0.77)]; results were similar among women for ML-derived K&L scores. Discriminative capacity was moderate among men for minimum joint space in relation to pain [0.60 (0.51, 0.67)] and function [0.62 (0.54, 0.69)]. AUC < 0.60 for other sex-specific associations. DISCUSSION: Observer-derived K&L scores had higher discriminative capacity regarding pain and function compared to minimum joint space and osteophyte. Among women, discriminative capacity was similar for observer- and ML-derived K&L scores. CONCLUSION: ML as an adjunct to expert observation for K&L scoring may be beneficial due to the efficiency and objectivity of ML.

Do lifestyle, anthropometric and demographic factors associated with muscle strength differ in a UK and Japanese cohort? An exploratory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Muscle weakness is associated with adverse clinical outcomes including disability and mortality. We report demographic, anthropometric and lifestyle correlates of grip strength in UK and Japanese population-based cohorts. AIM: To report prevalence of low grip strength according to 2019 European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP2) and 2019 Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS 2019) thresholds and to consider correlates of grip strength in Eastern and Western populations. METHODS: UK (1572 men; 1415 women) and Japanese (519 men; 1027 women) participants were recruited from two cohorts harmonised by consensus. Muscle strength was measured by grip strength dynamometry. Potential correlates of grip strength were examined using sex-stratified linear regression; univariate correlates (p < 0.05) were included in mutually adjusted models. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 66.2 (2.8) and 65.8 (12.3) in UK and Japanese cohorts, respectively. Prevalence of low grip strength was higher in Japanese participants (EWGSOP2 5.4% versus 2.4%, AWGS 2019 9.0% versus 3.7%). In both cohorts and sexes, univariate correlates of lower grip strength were older age, shorter height, not consuming alcohol, leaving education earlier and greater comorbidity. Apart from older age and shorter height, the only factors related to lower grip strength in mutually adjusted analyses were greater comorbidity among UK participants (kg difference in grip strength (95%CI) per additional comorbidity - 0.60(- 0.98, - 0.21) among men and - 0.50(- 0.86, - 0.13) among women) and not consuming alcohol among Japanese men (- 1.33(- 2.51, - 0.15)). DISCUSSION: Correlates of muscle strength were similar in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A global approach to age-related muscle weakness prevention may be appropriate.

Relationships Between Muscle Parameters and History of Falls and Fractures in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study: Do All Muscle Components Relate Equally to Clinical Outcomes?

In previous work, relationships between muscle and bone size and strength have been demonstrated and were stronger in females, suggesting possible sexual dimorphism. Here we examine sex-specific associations between individual muscle sarcopenia components with clinical outcomes (falls and fractures). 641 participants were recruited. Muscle mass was assessed as cross-sectional area (CSA) by peripheral quantitative computed tomography of the calf, grip strength (GpS) by Jamar dynamometry and function by gait speed (GtS). Falls and fractures were self-reported. Ordinal and logistic regression were used to examine the associations between muscle measurements and outcomes with and without adjustment for confounders. Mean (SD) age was 69.3 (2.6) years. CSA, GpS, and GtS were greater among males (p < 0.002). A higher proportion of females had fallen since age 45 (61.3% vs 40.2%, p < 0.001); in the last year (19.9% vs 14.1%, p = 0.053); and reported a previous fracture since age 45 (21.8% vs 18.5%, p = 0.302), than males. Among females, greater CSA was related to reduced risk of falling and fewer falls in the previous year in fully adjusted analysis only (p < 0.05); higher GpS was related to lower risk of falls since age 45 in unadjusted analysis (p = 0.045) and lower risk of fracture since age 45 in both unadjusted and fully adjusted analysis (p < 0.045). No statistically significant associations were observed for GtS among either sex for any relationships between muscle measurements and clinical outcomes studied. We observed relationships between muscle mass and strength but not function with falls and fractures in females only; further longitudinal studies are required to reproduce these results.

Immune-endocrine biomarkers associated with mental health: A 9-year longitudinal investigation from the Hertfordshire Ageing Study.

BACKGROUND: The study of neural-endocrine-immune system interactions has led to substantial advances in our understanding of neuropsychiatric disorders. Growing evidence reveals the pivotal roles of inflammatory cytokines signalling the brain to produce neurochemical, neuroendocrine, and neuroimmune changes which affect mood and behaviour. Ageing is accompanied by the development of low-grade systemic inflammation which may promote changes in the neural systems predisposing to geriatric depression via the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. The aim of this study was to investigate the longitudinal associations between baseline values and conditional changes (independent of baseline) in immune-endocrine biomarkers and mental health status in a population-based cohort of older adults. METHODS: Data from 347 subjects (200 men, 147 women) who participated in the Hertfordshire Ageing Study at baseline (1994/5, mean age 67.3 years) and at 9-year follow-up were analysed. Serum samples for analysis of inflammatory and endocrinological measures were collected at baseline and follow-up. At follow-up, depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) and mental health (Short Form-36 questionnaire) were assessed. Baseline values and changes in biomarkers in relation to risk of high depression scores (top sex-specific third) and low mental health scores (bottom sex-specific third) were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Lower baseline cortisol was related to greater risk of high depression scores; higher baseline cortisol: dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate ratio (men only) and higher baseline C-reactive protein (CRP) (women only) were related to greater risk of poor mental health scores. In addition, greater decline in cortisol was related to increased risk of high depression scores among men. These relationships were robust (p < 0.05) after controlling for sex, age, BMI, smoking, alcohol consumption and number of systems medicated. CONCLUSION: This study provides further evidence of the role of the HPA axis and inflammation in older adults with poor mental health. In addition, the findings highlight sex differences where increased inflammation in women and declines in cortisol in men were linked to poorer mental health. Further research is warranted to confirm these findings. This could lead to the search for potential biomarkers to stratify medications as well as developing novel intervention targets to improve mental health at older age.

Relationships Between Level and Change in Sarcopenia and Other Body Composition Components and Adverse Health Outcomes: Findings from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study.

We investigated how baseline values and rates of decline in components of sarcopenia and other body composition parameters relate to adverse clinical outcomes using the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. 2689 participants aged 70-79 years were studied. Appendicular lean mass, whole body fat mass, and total hip BMD were ascertained using DXA; muscle strength by grip dynamometry; and muscle function by gait speed. Baseline values and 2-3 year conditional changes (independent of baseline) in each characteristic were examined as predictors of mortality, hospital admission, low trauma fracture, and recurrent falls in the subsequent 10-14 years using Cox regression (generalized estimating equations used for recurrent falls) with adjustment for sex, ethnicity, age, and potential confounders. Lower levels and greater declines in all parameters (excluding hip BMD level) were associated (p < 0.05) with increased rates of mortality; fully-adjusted hazard ratios per SD lower gait speed and grip strength were 1.27 (95% CI 1.19, 1.36) and 1.14 (1.07, 1.21), respectively. Risk factors of hospital admission included lower levels and greater declines in gait speed and grip strength, and greater declines in hip BMD. Lower levels and greater declines in fat mass and hip BMD were associated with low trauma fracture. Lower gait speed, higher fat mass, and both lower levels and greater declines in grip strength were related to recurrent falls. Lower baseline levels and greater declines in musculoskeletal parameters were related to adverse outcomes. Interventions to maximize peak levels in earlier life and reduce rates of age-related decline may reduce the burden of disease in this age group.

Long-term rates of change in musculoskeletal aging and body composition: findings from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study.

Musculoskeletal disorders are common among older people. Preventive strategies require understanding of age-related changes in strength, function and body composition, including how they interrelate. We have described, and examined associations between, 9-year changes in these parameters among 2917 Health, Aging and Body Composition Study participants (aged 70-79 years). Appendicular lean mass (ALM), whole body fat mass and total hip BMD were ascertained using DXA; muscle strength by grip dynamometry; and muscle function by gait speed. For each characteristic annualised percentage changes were calculated; measures of conditional change (independent of baseline) were derived and their interrelationships were examined using Pearson correlations; proportion of variance at 9-year follow-up explained by baseline level was estimated; and mean trajectories in relation to age were estimated using linear mixed models. Analyses were stratified by sex. Median [lower quartile, upper quartile] annual percentage declines were grip strength (1.5 [0.0, 2.9]), gait speed (2.0 [0.6, 3.7]), ALM (0.7 [0.1, 1.4]), fat mass (0.4 [- 1.1, 1.9]) and hip BMD (0.5 [0.0, 1.1]). Declines were linear for ALM and accelerated over time for other characteristics. Most conditional change measures were positively correlated, most strongly between ALM, fat mass and hip BMD (r > 0.28). Proportion of variation at follow-up explained by baseline was lower for grip strength and gait speed (39-52%) than other characteristics (69-86%). Strength and function declined more rapidly, and were less correlated between baseline and follow-up, than measures of body composition. Therefore, broader intervention strategies to prevent loss of strength and function in later life are required as those targeting body composition alone may be insufficient.

Health Care Costs Associated With Muscle Weakness: A UK Population-Based Estimate.

Sarcopenia and muscle weakness are responsible for considerable health care expenditure but little is known about these costs in the UK. To address this, we estimated the excess economic burden for individuals with muscle weakness regarding the provision of health and social care among 442 men and women (aged 71-80 years) who participated in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (UK). Muscle weakness, characterised by low grip strength, was defined according to the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health criteria (men < 26 kg, women < 16 kg). Costs associated with primary care consultations and visits, outpatient and inpatient secondary care, medications, and formal (paid) as well as informal care for each participant were calculated. Mean total costs per person and their corresponding components were compared between groups with and without muscle weakness. Prevalence of muscle weakness in the sample was 11%. Mean total annual costs for participants with muscle weakness were £4592 (CI £2962-£6221), with informal care, inpatient secondary care and primary care accounting for the majority of total costs (38%, 23% and 19%, respectively). For participants without muscle weakness, total annual costs were £1885 (CI £1542-£2228) and their three highest cost categories were informal care (26%), primary care (23%) and formal care (20%). Total excess costs associated with muscle weakness were £2707 per person per year, with informal care costs accounting for 46% of this difference. This results in an estimated annual excess cost in the UK of £2.5 billion.

Cluster Analysis of Finite Element Analysis and Bone Microarchitectural Parameters Identifies Phenotypes with High Fracture Risk.

High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) is increasingly used for exploring associations between bone microarchitectural and finite element analysis (FEA) parameters and fracture. We hypothesised that combining bone microarchitectural parameters, geometry, BMD and FEA estimates of bone strength from HRpQCT may improve discrimination of fragility fractures. The analysis sample comprised of 359 participants (aged 72-81 years) from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study. Fracture history was determined by self-report and vertebral fracture assessment. Participants underwent HRpQCT scans of the distal radius and DXA scans of the proximal femur and lateral spine. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to derive relative risks for the relationship between individual bone microarchitectural and FEA parameters and previous fracture. Cluster analysis of these parameters was then performed to identify phenotypes associated with fracture prevalence. Receiver operating characteristic analysis suggested that bone microarchitectural parameters improved fracture discrimination compared to aBMD alone, whereas further inclusion of FEA parameters resulted in minimal improvements. Cluster analysis (k-means) identified four clusters. The first had lower Young modulus, cortical thickness, cortical volumetric density and Von Mises stresses compared to the wider sample; fracture rates were only significantly greater among women (relative risk [95%CI] compared to lowest risk cluster: 2.55 [1.28, 5.07], p = 0.008). The second cluster in women had greater trabecular separation, lower trabecular volumetric density and lower trabecular load with an increase in fracture rate compared to lowest risk cluster (1.93 [0.98, 3.78], p = 0.057). These findings may help inform intervention strategies for the prevention and management of osteoporosis.

Associations Between Objectively Measured Physical Activity, Body Composition and Sarcopenia: Findings from the Hertfordshire Sarcopenia Study (HSS).

Regular physical activity (PA) is associated with reduced risk of the development and progression of musculoskeletal, metabolic and vascular disease. However, PA declines with age and this can contribute to multiple adverse outcomes. The aims of this study were to describe the relationship between accelerometer-determined PA, body composition and sarcopenia (the loss of muscle mass and function with age). Seven-day PA was measured using the GENEactiv accelerometer among 32 men and 99 women aged 74-84 years who participated in the Hertfordshire Sarcopenia Study. We measured mean daily acceleration and minutes/day spent in non-sedentary and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels. Body composition was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, muscle strength by grip dynamometry and function by gait speed. Sarcopenia was defined according to the EWGSOP diagnostic algorithm. Men and women spent a median (inter-quartile range) of 138.8 (82, 217) and 186 (122, 240) minutes/day engaging in non-sedentary activity but only 14.3 (1.8, 30.2) and 9.5 (2.1, 18.6) min in MVPA, respectively. Higher levels of PA were associated with reduced adiposity, faster walking speed and decreased risk of sarcopenia. For example, a standard deviation (SD) increase in mean daily acceleration was associated with an increase in walking speed of 0.25 (95% CI 0.05, 0.45) SDs and a reduction in the risk of sarcopenia of 35% (95% CI 1, 57%) in fully adjusted analyses. PA was not associated with hand grip strength. Community-dwelling older adults in this study were largely sedentary but there was evidence that higher levels of activity were associated with reduced adiposity and improved function. PA at all intensity levels in later life may help maintain physical function and protect against sarcopenia.

Social isolation and loneliness as risk factors for the progression of frailty: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

Background: loneliness and social isolation have been associated with mortality and with functional decline in older people. We investigated whether loneliness or social isolation are associated with progression of frailty. Methods: participants were 2,817 people aged ≥60 from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Loneliness was assessed at Wave 2 using the Revised UCLA scale (short version). A social isolation score at Wave 2 was derived from data on living alone, frequency of contact with friends, family and children, and participation in social organisations. Frailty was assessed by the Fried phenotype of physical frailty at Waves 2 and 4, and by a frailty index at Waves 2-5. Results: high levels of loneliness were associated with an increased risk of becoming physically frail or pre-frail around 4 years later: relative risk ratios (95% CI), adjusted for age, sex, level of frailty and other potential confounding factors at baseline were 1.74 (1.29, 2.34) for pre-frailty, and 1.85 (1.14, 2.99) for frailty. High levels of loneliness were not associated with change in the frailty index-a broadly based measure of general condition-over a mean period of 6 years. In the sample as a whole, there was no association between social isolation and risk of becoming physically frail or pre-frail, but high social isolation was associated with increased risk of becoming physically frail in men. Social isolation was not associated with change in the frailty index. Conclusion: older people who experience high levels of loneliness are at increased risk of becoming physically frail.

Risk factors for incident falls in older men and women: the English longitudinal study of ageing.

BACKGROUND: Falls are a major cause of disability and death in older people, particularly women. Cross-sectional surveys suggest that some risk factors associated with a history of falls may be sex-specific, but whether risk factors for incident falls differ between the sexes is unclear. We investigated whether risk factors for incident falls differ between men and women. METHODS: Participants were 3298 people aged ≥60 who took part in the Waves 4-6 surveys of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. At Wave 4, they provided information about sociodemographic, lifestyle, behavioural and medical factors and had their physical and cognitive function assessed. Data on incident falls during the four-year follow-up period was collected from them at Waves 5 and 6. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to derive relative risks (RR) for the association between baseline characteristics and incident falls. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted models that also controlled for history of falls, older age was the only factor associated with increased risk of incident falls in both sexes. Some factors were only predictive of falls in one sex, namely more depressive symptoms (RR (95% CI) 1.03 (1.01,1.06)), incontinence (1.12 (1.00,1.24)) and never having married in women (1.26 (1.03,1.53)), and greater comorbidity (1.04 (1.00,1.08)), higher levels of pain (1.10 (1.04,1.17) and poorer balance, as indicated by inability to attempt a full-tandem stand, (1.23 (1.04,1.47)) in men. Of these, only the relationships between pain, balance and comorbidity and falls risk differed significantly by sex. CONCLUSIONS: There were some differences between the sexes in risk factors for incident falls. Our observation that associations between pain, balance and comorbidity and incident falls risk varied by sex needs further investigation in other cohorts.

Mortality in the Hertfordshire Ageing Study: association with level and loss of hand grip strength in later life.

Background: weak hand grip strength in later life is a risk factor for disability, morbidity and mortality and is central to definitions of sarcopenia and frailty. It is unclear whether rate of change in grip strength adds to level of grip strength as a risk factor for poor ageing outcomes. Methods: study participants were 292 community-dwelling men and women whose grip strength was measured during the 1994/5 (average age 67) and 2003/5 (average age 76) phases of the Hertfordshire Ageing Study, UK. Individual rate of change in grip strength was estimated using a residual change method. Mortality was followed-up to 2011 (42 men and 21 women died). Results: average grip strengths in 2003/5 were 38.4 kg (standard deviation [SD] = 8.1) and 23.7 kg (SD = 6.6) for men and women respectively. Average annualised rates of change in grip strength (2003/5 minus 1994/5) were modest owing to a healthy-participant effect (men: -0.12 kg/y, SD = 0.71; women: 0.08 kg/y, SD = 0.54) but varied widely. Mortality risk varied according to level and rate of change in grip strength (P = 0.03); death rates per 100 person years of follow-up were 6.7 (95% CI: 4.6, 9.6) among participants who lost grip over time and had low grip in 2003/5, in contrast with 0.8 (95% CI: 0.1, 5.8) among participants whose grip changed little over time and remained high in 2003/5. Conclusions: levels of grip strength in later life should be considered in conjunction with estimates of change in grip strength identified by repeat measurement over time. Normative data for longitudinal change in grip strength are required.

Identification of risk factors for hospital admission using multiple-failure survival models: a toolkit for researchers.

BACKGROUND: The UK population is ageing; improved understanding of risk factors for hospital admission is required. Linkage of the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (HCS) with Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data has created a multiple-failure survival dataset detailing the characteristics of 2,997 individuals at baseline (1998-2004, average age 66 years) and their hospital admissions (regarded as 'failure events') over a 10 year follow-up. Analysis of risk factors using logistic regression or time to first event Cox modelling wastes information as an individual's admissions after their first are disregarded. Sophisticated analysis techniques are established to examine risk factors for admission in such datasets but are not commonly implemented. METHODS: We review analysis techniques for multiple-failure survival datasets (logistic regression; time to first event Cox modelling; and the Andersen and Gill [AG] and Prentice, Williams and Peterson Total Time [PWP-TT] multiple-failure models), outline their implementation in Stata, and compare their results in an analysis of housing tenure (a marker of socioeconomic position) as a risk factor for different types of hospital admission (any; emergency; elective; >7 days). The AG and PWP-TT models include full admissions histories in the analysis of risk factors for admission and account for within-subject correlation of failure times. The PWP-TT model is also stratified on the number of previous failure events, allowing an individual's baseline risk of admission to increase with their number of previous admissions. RESULTS: All models yielded broadly similar results: not owner-occupying one's home was associated with increased risk of hospital admission. Estimated effect sizes were smaller from the PWP-TT model in comparison with other models owing to it having accounted for an increase in risk of admission with number of previous admissions. For example, hazard ratios [HR] from time to first event Cox models were 1.67(95 % CI: 1.36,2.04) and 1.63(95 % CI:1.36,1.95) for not owner-occupying one's home in relation to risk of emergency admission or death among women and men respectively; corresponding HRs from the PWP-TT model were 1.34(95 % CI:1.15,1.56) for women and 1.23(95 % CI:1.07,1.41) for men. CONCLUSION: The PWP-TT model may be implemented using routine statistical software and is recommended for the analysis of multiple-failure survival datasets which detail repeated hospital admissions among older people.