Recurrent disability progression endpoints in multiple sclerosis clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: The current standard endpoint to assess disability accumulation in multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trials is the time to the first confirmed disability progression, which excludes subsequent progression events. Including recurrent progression events may permit a more comprehensive assessment of treatment effects on disability progression. OBJECTIVE: To propose a definition of recurrent disability progression events and to compare time-to-first and recurrent event analysis. METHODS: Recurrent disability progression events were defined by expanding the recommended first event definition. Marginal recurrent event methods (negative binomial model, Lin-Wei-Yang-Ying model) were compared with Cox regression in data from three randomized controlled trials in relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS), and in simulated randomized controlled trial data. RESULTS: The recurrent event analyses included a substantially larger number of progression events compared with the time-to-first-event analyses (+7.5% and +9.9% in the RMS trials and +22.7% in the PPMS trial). The increase in the number of events resulted in more precise treatment effect estimates and a corresponding gain in statistical power. CONCLUSION: Our results support the use of recurrent event data analysis, especially in progressive MS trials, to improve estimates of treatment effects, increase statistical power, and better capture the clinically meaningful long-term disability progression experience.

Standard and reference-based conditional mean imputation.

Clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes typically include missing data due to missed assessments or structural missingness of outcomes after intercurrent events handled with a hypothetical strategy. Approaches based on Bayesian random multiple imputation and Rubin's rules for pooling results across multiple imputed data sets are increasingly used in order to align the analysis of these trials with the targeted estimand. We propose and justify deterministic conditional mean imputation combined with the jackknife for inference as an alternative approach. The method is applicable to imputations under a missing-at-random assumption as well as for reference-based imputation approaches. In an application and a simulation study, we demonstrate that it provides consistent treatment effect estimates with the Bayesian approach and reliable frequentist inference with accurate standard error estimation and type I error control. A further advantage of the method is that it does not rely on random sampling and is therefore replicable and unaffected by Monte Carlo error.

Antifungal Susceptibility Does Not Correlate With Fungal Clearance or Survival in AIDS-Associated Cryptococcal Meningitis.

We investigated the value of susceptibility testing in predicting response in AIDS-associated cryptococcal meningitis using clinical isolates from a randomized controlled trial of antifungal treatment (amphotericin monotherapy, amphotericin with flucytosine, or amphotericin with fluconazole). We found no correlation between antifungal susceptibility and either early or late survival, or fungal clearance.

Field- and clinically derived estimates of Wolbachia-mediated blocking of dengue virus transmission potential in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.

The wMel strain of Wolbachia can reduce the permissiveness of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to disseminated arboviral infections. Here, we report that wMel-infected Ae. aegypti (Ho Chi Minh City background), when directly blood-fed on 141 viremic dengue patients, have lower dengue virus (DENV) transmission potential and have a longer extrinsic incubation period than their wild-type counterparts. The wMel-infected mosquitoes that are field-reared have even greater relative resistance to DENV infection when fed on patient-derived viremic blood meals. This is explained by an increased susceptibility of field-reared wild-type mosquitoes to infection than laboratory-reared counterparts. Collectively, these field- and clinically relevant findings support the continued careful field-testing of wMel introgression for the biocontrol of Ae. aegypti-born arboviruses.

A pragmatic adaptive enrichment design for selecting the right target population for cancer immunotherapies.

One of the challenges in the design of confirmatory trials is to deal with uncertainties regarding the optimal target population for a novel drug. Adaptive enrichment designs (AED) which allow for a data-driven selection of one or more prespecified biomarker subpopulations at an interim analysis have been proposed in this setting but practical case studies of AEDs are still relatively rare. We present the design of an AED with a binary endpoint in the highly dynamic setting of cancer immunotherapy. The trial was initiated as a conventional trial in early triple-negative breast cancer but amended to an AED based on emerging data external to the trial suggesting that PD-L1 status could be a predictive biomarker. Operating characteristics are discussed including the concept of a minimal detectable difference, that is, the smallest observed treatment effect that would lead to a statistically significant result in at least one of the target populations at the interim or the final analysis, respectively, in the setting of AED.

Principal stratum strategy: Potential role in drug development.

A randomized trial allows estimation of the causal effect of an intervention compared to a control in the overall population and in subpopulations defined by baseline characteristics. Often, however, clinical questions also arise regarding the treatment effect in subpopulations of patients, which would experience clinical or disease related events post-randomization. Events that occur after treatment initiation and potentially affect the interpretation or the existence of the measurements are called intercurrent events in the ICH E9(R1) guideline. If the intercurrent event is a consequence of treatment, randomization alone is no longer sufficient to meaningfully estimate the treatment effect. Analyses comparing the subgroups of patients without the intercurrent events for intervention and control will not estimate a causal effect. This is well known, but post-hoc analyses of this kind are commonly performed in drug development. An alternative approach is the principal stratum strategy, which classifies subjects according to their potential occurrence of an intercurrent event on both study arms. We illustrate with examples that questions formulated through principal strata occur naturally in drug development and argue that approaching these questions with the ICH E9(R1) estimand framework has the potential to lead to more transparent assumptions as well as more adequate analyses and conclusions. In addition, we provide an overview of assumptions required for estimation of effects in principal strata. Most of these assumptions are unverifiable and should hence be based on solid scientific understanding. Sensitivity analyses are needed to assess robustness of conclusions.

Dynamic Prediction of Death in Patients With Tuberculous Meningitis Using Time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale and Plasma Sodium Measurements.

BACKGROUND: Pretreatment predictors of death from tuberculous meningitis (TBM) are well established, but whether outcome can be predicted more accurately after the start of treatment by updated clinical variables is unknown. Hence, we developed and validated models that dynamically predict mortality using time-updated Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and plasma sodium measurements, together with patient baseline characteristics. METHODS: We included 1048 adults from 4 TBM studies conducted in southern Vietnam from 2004 to 2016. We used a landmarking approach to predict death within 120 days after treatment initiation using time-updated data during the first 30 days of treatment. Separate models were built for patients with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to evaluate performance of the models at days 10, 20, and 30 of treatment to predict mortality by 60, 90, and 120 days. Our internal validation was corrected for overoptimism using bootstrap. We provide a web-based application that computes mortality risk within 120 days. RESULTS: Higher GCS indicated better prognosis in all patients. In HIV-infected patients, higher plasma sodium was uniformly associated with good prognosis, whereas in HIV-uninfected patients the association was heterogeneous over time. The bias-corrected AUC of the models ranged from 0.82 to 0.92 and 0.81 to 0.85 in HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected individuals, respectively. The models outperformed the previously published baseline models. CONCLUSIONS: Time-updated GCS and plasma sodium measurements improved predictions based solely on information obtained at diagnosis. Our models may be used in practice to define those with poor prognosis during treatment.

A Trial of Itraconazole or Amphotericin B for HIV-Associated Talaromycosis.

BACKGROUND: Talaromyces marneffei infection is a major cause of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related death in South and Southeast Asia. Guidelines recommend initial treatment with amphotericin B deoxycholate, but this drug has substantial side effects, a high cost, and limited availability. Itraconazole is available in oral form, is associated with fewer unacceptable side effects than amphotericin, and is widely used in place of amphotericin; however, clinical trials comparing these two treatments are lacking. METHODS: In this open-label, noninferiority trial, we randomly assigned 440 HIV-infected adults who had talaromycosis, confirmed by either microscopy or culture, to receive either intravenous amphotericin B deoxycholate (amphotericin) (219 patients), at a dose of 0.7 to 1.0 mg per kilogram of body weight per day, or itraconazole capsules (221 patients), at a dose of 600 mg per day for 3 days, followed by 400 mg per day, for 11 days; thereafter, all the patients received maintenance therapy with itraconazole. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at week 2. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality at week 24, the time to clinical resolution of talaromycosis, early fungicidal activity, relapse of talaromycosis, development of the immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS), and the side-effect profile. RESULTS: The risk of death at week 2 was 6.5% in the amphotericin group and 7.4% in the itraconazole group (absolute risk difference, 0.9 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -3.9 to 5.6; P<0.001 for noninferiority); however, the risk of death at week 24 was 11.3% in the amphotericin group and 21.0% in the itraconazole group (absolute risk difference, 9.7 percentage points; 95% CI, 2.8 to 16.6; P=0.006). Treatment with amphotericin was associated with significantly faster clinical resolution and fungal clearance and significantly lower rates of relapse and IRIS than itraconazole. The patients who received amphotericin had significantly higher rates of infusion-related reactions, renal failure, hypokalemia, hypomagnesemia, and anemia than patients in the itraconazole group. CONCLUSIONS: Amphotericin was superior to itraconazole as initial treatment for talaromycosis with respect to 6-month mortality, clinical response, and fungicidal activity. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and others; IVAP Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN59144167 .).

Adjunctive Dexamethasone in HIV-Associated Cryptococcal Meningitis.

BACKGROUND: Cryptococcal meningitis associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection causes more than 600,000 deaths each year worldwide. Treatment has changed little in 20 years, and there are no imminent new anticryptococcal agents. The use of adjuvant glucocorticoids reduces mortality among patients with other forms of meningitis in some populations, but their use is untested in patients with cryptococcal meningitis. METHODS: In this double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited adult patients with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Laos, Uganda, and Malawi. All the patients received either dexamethasone or placebo for 6 weeks, along with combination antifungal therapy with amphotericin B and fluconazole. RESULTS: The trial was stopped for safety reasons after the enrollment of 451 patients. Mortality was 47% in the dexamethasone group and 41% in the placebo group by 10 weeks (hazard ratio in the dexamethasone group, 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84 to 1.47; P=0.45) and 57% and 49%, respectively, by 6 months (hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.53; P=0.20). The percentage of patients with disability at 10 weeks was higher in the dexamethasone group than in the placebo group, with 13% versus 25% having a prespecified good outcome (odds ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.69; P<0.001). Clinical adverse events were more common in the dexamethasone group than in the placebo group (667 vs. 494 events, P=0.01), with more patients in the dexamethasone group having grade 3 or 4 infection (48 vs. 25 patients, P=0.003), renal events (22 vs. 7, P=0.004), and cardiac events (8 vs. 0, P=0.004). Fungal clearance in cerebrospinal fluid was slower in the dexamethasone group. Results were consistent across Asian and African sites. CONCLUSIONS: Dexamethasone did not reduce mortality among patients with HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis and was associated with more adverse events and disability than was placebo. (Funded by the United Kingdom Department for International Development and others through the Joint Global Health Trials program; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN59144167.).

Intensified Antituberculosis Therapy in Adults with Tuberculous Meningitis.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculous meningitis is often lethal. Early antituberculosis treatment and adjunctive treatment with glucocorticoids improve survival, but nearly one third of patients with the condition still die. We hypothesized that intensified antituberculosis treatment would enhance the killing of intracerebral Mycobacterium tuberculosis organisms and decrease the rate of death among patients. METHODS: We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults and HIV-uninfected adults with a clinical diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis who were admitted to one of two Vietnamese hospitals. We compared a standard, 9-month antituberculosis regimen (which included 10 mg of rifampin per kilogram of body weight per day) with an intensified regimen that included higher-dose rifampin (15 mg per kilogram per day) and levofloxacin (20 mg per kilogram per day) for the first 8 weeks of treatment. The primary outcome was death by 9 months after randomization. RESULTS: A total of 817 patients (349 of whom were HIV-infected) were enrolled; 409 were randomly assigned to receive the standard regimen, and 408 were assigned to receive intensified treatment. During the 9 months of follow-up, 113 patients in the intensified-treatment group and 114 patients in the standard-treatment group died (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 1.22; P=0.66). There was no evidence of a significant differential effect of intensified treatment in the overall population or in any of the subgroups, with the possible exception of patients infected with isoniazid-resistant M. tuberculosis. There were also no significant differences in secondary outcomes between the treatment groups. The overall number of adverse events leading to treatment interruption did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (64 events in the standard-treatment group and 95 events in the intensified-treatment group, P=0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Intensified antituberculosis treatment was not associated with a higher rate of survival among patients with tuberculous meningitis than standard treatment. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Li Ka Shing Foundation; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN61649292.).

Prognostic Models for 9-Month Mortality in Tuberculous Meningitis.

Background: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most severe form of extrapulmonary tuberculosis. We developed and validated prognostic models for 9-month mortality in adults with TBM, with or without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Methods: We included 1699 subjects from 4 randomized clinical trials and 1 prospective observational study conducted at 2 major referral hospitals in Southern Vietnam from 2001-2015. Modeling was based on multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. The final prognostic models were validated internally and temporally and were displayed using nomograms and a Web-based app (https://thaole.shinyapps.io/tbmapp/). Results: 951 HIV-uninfected and 748 HIV-infected subjects with TBM were included; 219 of 951 (23.0%) and 384 of 748 (51.3%) died during 9-month follow-up. Common predictors for increased mortality in both populations were higher Medical Research Council (MRC) disease severity grade and lower cerebrospinal fluid lymphocyte cell count. In HIV-uninfected subjects, older age, previous tuberculosis, not receiving adjunctive dexamethasone, and focal neurological signs were additional risk factors; in HIV-infected subjects, lower weight, lower peripheral blood CD4 cell count, and abnormal plasma sodium were additional risk factors. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) for the final prognostic models were 0.77 (HIV-uninfected population) and 0.78 (HIV-infected population), demonstrating better discrimination than the MRC grade (AUC, 0.66 and 0.70) or Glasgow Coma Scale score (AUC, 0.68 and 0.71) alone. Conclusions: The developed models showed good performance and could be used in clinical practice to assist physicians in identifying patients with TBM at high risk of death and with increased need of supportive care.

Methods to discriminate primary from secondary dengue during acute symptomatic infection.

BACKGROUND: Dengue virus infection results in a broad spectrum of clinical outcomes, ranging from asymptomatic infection through to severe dengue. Although prior infection with another viral serotype, i.e. secondary dengue, is known to be an important factor influencing disease severity, current methods to determine primary versus secondary immune status during the acute illness do not consider the rapidly evolving immune response, and their accuracy has rarely been evaluated against an independent gold standard. METHODS: Two hundred and ninety-three confirmed dengue patients were classified as experiencing primary, secondary or indeterminate infections using plaque reduction neutralisation tests performed 6 months after resolution of the acute illness. We developed and validated regression models to differentiate primary from secondary dengue on multiple acute illness days, using Panbio Indirect IgG and in-house capture IgG and IgM ELISA measurements performed on over 1000 serial samples obtained during acute illness. RESULTS: Cut-offs derived for the various parameters demonstrated progressive change (positively or negatively) by day of illness. Using these time varying cut-offs it was possible to determine whether an infection was primary or secondary on single specimens, with acceptable performance. The model using Panbio Indirect IgG responses and including an interaction with illness day showed the best performance throughout, although with some decline in performance later in infection. Models based on in-house capture IgG levels, and the IgM/IgG ratio, also performed well, though conversely performance improved later in infection. CONCLUSIONS: For all assays, the best fitting models estimated a different cut-off value for different days of illness, confirming how rapidly the immune response changes during acute dengue. The optimal choice of assay will vary depending on circumstance. Although the Panbio Indirect IgG model performs best early on, the IgM/IgG capture ratio may be preferred later in the illness course.

Leukotriene A4 Hydrolase Genotype and HIV Infection Influence Intracerebral Inflammation and Survival From Tuberculous Meningitis.

Background: Tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is the most devastating form of tuberculosis, yet very little is known about the pathophysiology. We hypothesized that the genotype of leukotriene A4 hydrolase (encoded by LTA4H), which determines inflammatory eicosanoid expression, influences intracerebral inflammation, and predicts survival from TBM. Methods: We characterized the pretreatment clinical and intracerebral inflammatory phenotype and 9-month survival of 764 adults with TBM. All were genotyped for single-nucleotide polymorphism rs17525495, and inflammatory phenotype was defined by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) leukocyte and cytokine concentrations. Results: LTA4H genotype predicted survival of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-uninfected patients, with TT-genotype patients significantly more likely to survive TBM than CC-genotype patients, according to Cox regression analysis (univariate P = .040 and multivariable P = .037). HIV-uninfected, TT-genotype patients had high CSF proinflammatory cytokine concentrations, with intermediate and lower concentrations in those with CT and CC genotypes. Increased CSF cytokine concentrations correlated with more-severe disease, but patients with low CSF leukocytes and cytokine concentrations were more likely to die from TBM. HIV infection independently predicted death due to TBM (hazard ratio, 3.94; 95% confidence interval, 2.79-5.56) and was associated with globally increased CSF cytokine concentrations, independent of LTA4H genotype. Conclusions: LTA4H genotype and HIV infection influence pretreatment inflammatory phenotype and survival from TBM. LTA4H genotype may predict adjunctive corticosteroid responsiveness in HIV-uninfected individuals.

Treatment Response in Enteric Fever in an Era of Increasing Antimicrobial Resistance: An Individual Patient Data Analysis of 2092 Participants Enrolled into 4 Randomized, Controlled Trials in Nepal.

BACKGROUND.: Enteric fever, caused by Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A, is the leading cause of bacterial febrile disease in South Asia. METHODS.: Individual data from 2092 patients with enteric fever randomized into 4 trials in Kathmandu, Nepal, were pooled. All trials compared gatifloxacin with 1 of the following comparator drugs: cefixime, chloramphenicol, ofloxacin, or ceftriaxone. Treatment outcomes were evaluated according to antimicrobial if S. Typhi/Paratyphi were isolated from blood. We additionally investigated the impact of changing bacterial antimicrobial susceptibility on outcome. RESULTS.: Overall, 855 (41%) patients had either S. Typhi (n = 581, 28%) or S. Paratyphi A (n = 274, 13%) cultured from blood. There were 139 (6.6%) treatment failures with 1 death. Except for the last trial with ceftriaxone, the fluoroquinolone gatifloxacin was associated with equivalent or better fever clearance times and lower treatment failure rates in comparison to all other antimicrobials. However, we additionally found that the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) against fluoroquinolones have risen significantly since 2005 and were associated with increasing fever clearance times. Notably, all organisms were susceptible to ceftriaxone throughout the study period (2005-2014), and the MICs against azithromycin declined, confirming the utility of these alternative drugs for enteric fever treatment. CONCLUSION.: The World Health Organization and local government health ministries in South Asia still recommend fluoroquinolones for enteric fever. This policy should change based on the evidence provided here. Rapid diagnostics are urgently required given the large numbers of suspected enteric fever patients with a negative culture.

Clinical Outcomes of Patients With Drug-Resistant Tuberculous Meningitis Treated With an Intensified Antituberculosis Regimen.

Background: Drug-resistant tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is difficult to diagnose and treat. Mortality is high and optimal treatment is unknown. We compared clinical outcomes of drug-resistant and -susceptible TBM treated with either standard or intensified antituberculosis treatment. Methods: We analyzed the influence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug resistance on the outcomes of patients with TBM enrolled into a randomized controlled trial comparing a standard, 9-month antituberculosis regimen (containing rifampicin 10 mg/kg/day) with an intensified regimen with higher-dose rifampicin (15 mg/kg/day) and levofloxacin (20 mg/kg/day) for the first 8 weeks. The primary endpoint of the trial was 9-month survival. In this subgroup analysis, resistance categories were predefined as multidrug resistant (MDR), isoniazid resistant, rifampicin susceptible (INH-R), and susceptible to rifampicin and isoniazid (INH-S + RIF-S). Outcome by resistance categories and response to intensified treatment were compared and estimated by Cox regression. Results: Of 817 randomized patients, 322 had a known drug resistance profile. INH-R was found in 86 (26.7%) patients, MDR in 15 (4.7%) patients, rifampicin monoresistance in 1 patient (0.3%), and INH-S + RIF-S in 220 (68.3%) patients. Multivariable regression showed that MDR (hazard ratio [HR], 5.91 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.00-11.6]), P < .001), was an independent predictor of death. INH-R had a significant association with the combined outcome of new neurological events or death (HR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.11-2.23]). Adjusted Cox regression, corrected for treatment adjustments, showed that intensified treatment was significantly associated with improved survival (HR, 0.34 [95% CI, .15-.76], P = .01) in INH-R TBM. Conclusions: Early intensified treatment improved survival in patients with INH-R TBM. Targeted regimens for drug-resistant TBM should be further explored. Clinical Trials Registration: ISRCTN61649292.

An Evidence-Based Algorithm for Early Prognosis of Severe Dengue in the Outpatient Setting.

Background: Early prediction of severe dengue could significantly assist patient triage and case management. Methods: We prospectively investigated 7563 children with ≤3 days of fever recruited in the outpatient departments of 6 hospitals in southern Vietnam between 2010 and 2013. The primary endpoint of interest was severe dengue (2009 World Health Organization Guidelines), and predefined risk variables were collected at the time of enrollment to enable prognostic model development. Results: The analysis population comprised 7544 patients, of whom 2060 (27.3%) had laboratory-confirmed dengue; nested among these were 117 (1.5%) severe cases. In the multivariate logistic model, a history of vomiting, lower platelet count, elevated aspartate aminotransferase (AST) level, positivity in the nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) rapid test, and viremia magnitude were all independently associated with severe dengue. The final prognostic model (Early Severe Dengue Identifier [ESDI]) included history of vomiting, platelet count, AST level. and NS1 rapid test status. Conclusions: The ESDI had acceptable performance features (area under the curve = 0.95, sensitivity 87% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80%-92%), specificity 88% (95% CI, 87%-89%), positive predictive value 10% (95% CI, 9%-12%), and negative predictive value of 99% (95% CI, 98%-100%) in the population of all 7563 enrolled children. A score chart, for routine clinical use, was derived from the prognostic model and could improve triage and management of children presenting with fever in dengue-endemic areas.

Rapid decline in the susceptibility of Plasmodium falciparum to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in the south of Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin resistant Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in the countries of the Greater Mekong sub-region posing a serious threat to global malaria elimination efforts. The relationship of artemisinin resistance to treatment failure has been unclear. METHODS: In annual studies conducted in three malaria endemic provinces in the south of Vietnam (Binh Phuoc, Ninh Thuan and Gia Lai) between 2011 and 2015, 489 patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria were enrolled in detailed clinical, parasitological and molecular therapeutic response assessments with 42 days follow up. Patients received the national recommended first-line treatment dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for three days. RESULTS: Over the 5 years the proportion of patients with detectable parasitaemia on day 3 rose steadily from 38 to 57% (P < 0.001). In Binh Phuoc province, the parasite clearance half-life increased from 3.75 h in 2011 to 6.60 h in 2015 (P < 0.001), while treatment failures rose from 0% in 2012 and 2013, to 7% in 2014 and 26% in 2015 (P < 0.001). Recrudescence was associated with in vitro evidence of artemisinin and piperaquine resistance. In the treatment failures cases of 2015, all 14 parasite isolates carried the C580Y Pfkelch 13 gene, marker of artemisinin resistance and 93% (13/14) of them carried exoE415G mutations, markers of piperaquine resistance. CONCLUSIONS: In the south of Vietnam recent emergence of piperaquine resistant P. falciparum strains has accelerated the reduced response to artemisinin and has led to treatment failure rates of up to 26% to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, Vietnam's current first-line ACT. Alternative treatments are urgently needed.

Smooth semi-nonparametric (SNP) estimation of the cumulative incidence function.

This paper presents a novel approach to estimation of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of competing risks. The underlying statistical model is specified via a mixture factorization of the joint distribution of the event type and the time to the event. The time to event distributions conditional on the event type are modeled using smooth semi-nonparametric densities. One strength of this approach is that it can handle arbitrary censoring and truncation while relying on mild parametric assumptions. A stepwise forward algorithm for model estimation and adaptive selection of smooth semi-nonparametric polynomial degrees is presented, implemented in the statistical software R, evaluated in a sequence of simulation studies, and applied to data from a clinical trial in cryptococcal meningitis. The simulations demonstrate that the proposed method frequently outperforms both parametric and nonparametric alternatives. They also support the use of 'ad hoc' asymptotic inference to derive confidence intervals. An extension to regression modeling is also presented, and its potential and challenges are discussed. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weighted analysis of composite endpoints with simultaneous inference for flexible weight constraints.

Composite endpoints are widely used as primary endpoints of randomized controlled trials across clinical disciplines. A common critique of the conventional analysis of composite endpoints is that all disease events are weighted equally, whereas their clinical relevance may differ substantially. We address this by introducing a framework for the weighted analysis of composite endpoints and interpretable test statistics, which are applicable to both binary and time-to-event data. To cope with the difficulty of selecting an exact set of weights, we propose a method for constructing simultaneous confidence intervals and tests that asymptotically preserve the family-wise type I error in the strong sense across families of weights satisfying flexible inequality or order constraints based on the theory of χ¯2-distributions. We show that the method achieves the nominal simultaneous coverage rate with substantial efficiency gains over Scheffé's procedure in a simulation study and apply it to trials in cardiovascular disease and enteric fever. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.