Using heart rate variability to develop a predictive model for post-operative cardiovascular complications following major abdominal surgery: A pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Heart Rate Variability (HRV) is a dynamic reflection of heart rhythm regulation by various physiological inputs. HRV deviations have been found to correlate with clinical outcomes in patients under physiological stresses. Perioperative cardiovascular complications occur in up to 5% of adult patients undergoing abdominal surgery and are associated with significantly increased mortality. This pilot study aimed to develop a predictive model for post-operative cardiovascular complications using HRV parameters for early risk stratification and aid post-operative clinical decision-making. METHODS: Adult patients admitted to High Dependency Units after elective major abdominal surgery were recruited. The primary composite outcome was defined as cardiovascular complications within 7 days post-operatively. ECG monitoring for HRV parameters was conducted at three time points (pre-operative, immediately post-operative, and post-operative day 1) and analyzed based on outcome group and time interactions. Candidate HRV predictors were included in a multivariable logistic regression analysis incorporating a stepwise selection algorithm. RESULTS: 89 patients were included in the analysis, with 8 experiencing cardiovascular complications. Three HRV parameters, when measured immediately post-operatively and composited with patient age, provided the basis for a predictive model with AUC of 0.980 (95% CI: 0.953, 1.00). The negative predictive value was 1.00 at a statistically optimal predicted probability cut-off point of 0.16. CONCLUSION: Our model holds potential for accelerating clinical decision-making and aiding in patient triaging post-operatively, using easily acquired HRV parameters. Risk stratification with our model may enable safe early step-down care in patients assessed to have a low risk profile of post-operative cardiovascular complications.

Diagnosing Sarcopenia with AI-Aided Ultrasound (DINOSAUR)-A Pilot Study.

Background: Sarcopenia has been recognized as a determining factor in surgical outcomes and is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications and readmission. Diagnosis is currently based on clinical guidelines, which includes assessment of skeletal muscle mass but not quality. Ultrasound has been proposed as a useful point-of-care diagnostic tool to assess muscle quality, but no validated cut-offs for sarcopenia have been reported. Using novel automated artificial intelligence (AI) software to interpret ultrasound images may assist in mitigating the operator-dependent nature of the modality. Our study aims to evaluate the fidelity of AI-aided ultrasound as a reliable and reproducible modality to assess muscle quality and diagnose sarcopenia in surgical patients. Methods: Thirty-six adult participants from an outpatient clinic were recruited for this prospective cohort study. Sarcopenia was diagnosed according to Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS) 2019 guidelines. Ultrasonography of the rectus femoris muscle was performed, and images were analyzed by an AI software (MuscleSound® (Version 5.69.0)) to derive muscle parameters including intramuscular adipose tissue (IMAT) as a proxy of muscle quality. A receiver operative characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the predictive capability of IMAT and its derivatives, with area under the curve (AUC) as a measure of overall diagnostic accuracy. To evaluate consistency between ultrasound users of different experience, intra- and inter-rater reliability of muscle ultrasound parameters was analyzed in a separate cohort using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and Bland-Altman plots. Results: The median age was 69.5 years (range: 26-87), and the prevalence of sarcopenia in the cohort was 30.6%. The ROC curve plotted with IMAT index (IMAT% divided by muscle area) yielded an AUC of 0.727 (95% CI: 0.551-0.904). An optimal cut-off point of 4.827%/cm2 for IMAT index was determined with a Youden's Index of 0.498. We also demonstrated that IMAT index has excellent intra-rater reliability (ICC = 0.938, CI: 0.905-0.961) and good inter-rater reliability (ICC = 0.776, CI: 0.627-0.866). In Bland-Altman plots, the limits of agreement were from -1.489 to 1.566 and -2.107 to 4.562, respectively. Discussion: IMAT index obtained via ultrasound has the potential to act as a point-of-care evaluation for sarcopenia screening and diagnosis, with good intra- and inter-rater reliability. The proposed IMAT index cut-off maximizes sensitivity for case finding, supporting its use as an easily implementable point-of-care test in the community for sarcopenia screening. Further research incorporating other ultrasound parameters of muscle quality may provide the basis for a more robust diagnostic tool to help predict surgical risk and outcomes.