The impact of implementing the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on hospitalizations for pneumonia among children.

Pneumonia is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children, with pneumococcus as the main etiologic agent. In Brazil, the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-10) was introduced into the childhood immunization schedule in 2010. The aim of this study was to assess the impact caused by implementing PCV-10 on the hospitalizations of children with pneumonia, between 2005 and 2015, in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. An ecological time series study and a forecasting analysis were conducted. A comparison was made between the hospitalizations of children aged between seven months and four years due to pneumonia in the Brazilian Unified Health System, in the 5 years before (2005-2009) and after (2011-2015) implementation of PCV-10. Descriptive analysis included absolute and relative values, means and rates of hospitalization. The chi-square test was used to compare the annual incidence of hospitalizations and the t-Student test to compare the five-year mean values. For the temporal modeling of hospitalizations, an autoregressive integrated moving average was used, adjusted with seasonal-SARIMA (Box-Jenkins methodology), with a prediction of the monthly number of hospitalizations for 2011-2015. The predicted and observed values for 2011-2015 were then compared. The number of hospitalizations after implementing PCV-10 was reduced by 24.5 %. The monthly average of hospitalizations dropped from 681 (2005-2009) to 514 (2011-2015). The hospitalization rate dropped from 56.1 per thousand live births in the five-year period prior to PCV-10 to 43.4 in the following five-year period (a 22.7% reduction). Comparing the values predicted by the SARIMA model for a scenario without PCV-10 in the second five-year period, with those reported after implementing PCV-10, the estimated number of prevented hospitalizations was 8,682 in the five years following the introduction of the vaccine. In conclusion, in the five years following implementation of PCV-10, hospitalizations of children with pneumonia in Pernambuco decrease by 22%.

Spatial patterns of the total mortality over the first 24 hours of life and that due to preventable causes.

This is an ecological study analysing spatial patterns of the total mortality over the first 24 hours of life and that due to preventable causes using data from the mortality information system (SIM) and live birth information system (SINASC) based on the municipalities of Pernambuco State, Brazil. The total mortality rates over the first 24 hours and that due to preventable causes were calculated for each municipality for the decades of 2000 to 2009 and for 2010 to 2019 to enable a comparison of the spatial patterns with spatial scan statistic used to identify clusters. Over the first 24 hours of life, a total of 13,571 deaths were reported, out of which 10,476 (77.2%) were preventable. The total mortality rate over the first 24 hours of life decreased from 5.5 in the 2000- 2009 period to 3.7 per 1000 live births in the following decade: a reduction of 32.7%, while the mortality rate due to preventable causes decreased from 4.4 to 2.8 per 1000 live births, a reduction of 36.7%. In the first decade, spatial exploratory analysis found three mortality rate clusters encompassing 56 municipalities over the first 24 hours of life. With respect to preventable causes over the first 24 hours of life, two mortality rate clusters were identified encompassing 41 municipalities. Risk areas for mortality over the first 24 hours of life were detected through spatial scan statistic. This method, directed towards uncovering the geographical distribution of deaths of very premature infants, can act as a tool for identifying priority areas to guide healthcare interventions.