Validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of cancer in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and main duct dilatation of 10 mm or less.

BACKGROUND: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is premalignant pancreatic lesion. International guidelines offer limited predictors of individual risk. A nomogram to predict individual IPMN malignancy risk was released, with good diagnostic performance based on a large cohort of Asian patients with IPMN. The present study validated a nomogram to predict malignancy risk and invasiveness of IPMN using both Eastern and Western cohorts. METHODS: Clinicopathological and radiological data from patients who underwent pancreatic resection for IPMN at four centres each in Eastern and Western countries were collected. After excluding patients with missing data for at least one malignancy predictor in the nomogram (main pancreatic duct diameter, cyst size, presence of mural nodule, serum carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 levels, and age). RESULTS: In total, data from 393 patients who fit the criteria were analysed, of whom 265 were from Eastern and 128 from Western institutions. Although mean age, sex, log value of serum CA19-9 level, tumour location, main duct diameter, cyst size and presence of mural nodule differed between the Korean/Japanese, Eastern and Western cohorts, rates of malignancy and invasive cancer did not differ significantly. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve values for the nomogram predicting malignancy were 0·745 for Eastern, 0·856 for Western and 0·776 for combined cohorts; respective values for the nomogram predicting invasiveness were 0·736, 0·891 and 0·788. CONCLUSIONS: External validation of the nomogram showed good performance in predicting cancer in both Eastern and Western patients with IPMN lesions.

ANTECEDENTES: La neoplasia mucinosa papilar intraductal (intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, IPMN) es una lesión pancreática premaligna. Las guías internacionales incluyen un número limitado de factores predictivos de riesgo individual. Para predecir el riesgo individual de malignidad del IPMN se ha propuesto un nomograma con un buen rendimiento diagnóstico, basado en una gran cohorte de pacientes asiáticos con IPMN. Este estudio validó el nomograma para predecir el riesgo de cáncer y de invasión de la IPMN utilizando cohortes tanto orientales como occidentales. MÉTODOS: Se recogieron datos clínico-patológicos y radiológicos de pacientes en los que se realizó una resección de páncreas por IPMN en 4 centros en países orientales y en 4 centros de países occidentales. Se excluyeron los pacientes en los que en el nomograma faltaba ≥ 1 factor(es) predictivo(s) de malignidad (diámetro del conducto pancreático principal, tamaño del quiste, presencia de nódulo mural, niveles séricos de CEA y CA19-9, y edad). RESULTADOS: En total, se analizaron datos de 393 pacientes que cumplían con los criterios de inclusión, de los cuales 265 eran de centros orientales y 128 de centros occidentales. Aunque la edad media, el sexo, el valor logarítmico del nivel sérico de CA19-9, la localización del tumor, el diámetro del conducto principal, el tamaño del quiste y la presencia de un nódulo mural difirieron entre las cohortes de Corea/Japón y las cohortes oriental y occidental, las tasas de malignidad y de cáncer invasivo no fueron significativamente diferentes. Las áreas bajo la curva operativa del receptor (area under the receiver operating curve, AUC) que mostró el nomograma para predecir la malignidad fueron: cohorte oriental: 0,745; cohorte occidental: 0,856 y cohortes combinadas: 0,776; y para predecir la invasión tumoral fueron: cohorte oriental: 0,736; cohorte occidental: 0,891, y cohortes combinadas: 0,788. CONCLUSIÓN: La validación externa del nomograma mostró un buen rendimiento en la predicción de cáncer, tanto en pacientes orientales como occidentales con lesiones IPMN.

Skeletal Muscle Quality is Associated with Worse Survival After Pancreatoduodenectomy for Periampullary, Nonpancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Body composition measures may predict outcomes of cancer surgery. Whereas low muscle mass shown on preoperative computed tomography (CT) scans has been associated with worse outcomes after surgery for pancreatic cancer, less consideration has been given to low muscle attenuation, reflecting poor muscle quality. Studies relating muscle mass and muscle attenuation with outcomes for patients with periampullary, nonpancreatic cancer are lacking. METHODS: Skeletal muscle mass and attenuation were assessed in 166 consecutive patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) for periampullary, nonpancreatic cancer at a single center between 2000 and 2012. The skeletal muscle index (SMI) was calculated from cross-sectional muscle area on preoperative CT imaging at the third lumbar vertebra level (L3) and normalized for height. The skeletal muscle attenuation index (MAI) was calculated by measuring the average Hounsfield units of the total muscle area at the L3 level. Overall survival (OS) and the rate of major postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥3) were extracted from prospectively maintained databases. RESULTS: Low SMI was present in 78.3 % and low MAI in 48.8 % of the patients. The multivariate analysis showed lymph node metastasis [hazard ratio (HR) 1.8; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.1-2.9], microscopic radicality (HR 2.0; 95 % CI 1.2-3.4), and low MAI (HR 2.0; 95 % CI 1.2-3.3), but not low SMI to be significantly associated with decreased OS. Low MAI (HR 1.9; 95 % CI 1.0-3.8) was the only independent risk factor for major postoperative complications. CONCLUSION: Skeletal muscle quality, but not muscle mass, predicted survival and major complications after PD for periampullary, nonpancreatic cancer. Preoperative CT-derived body composition measures may stratify patients into risk categories and support shared decision making.

Impact of nationwide enhanced implementation of best practices in pancreatic cancer care (PACAP-1): a multicenter stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer has a very poor prognosis. Best practices for the use of chemotherapy, enzyme replacement therapy, and biliary drainage have been identified but their implementation in daily clinical practice is often suboptimal. We hypothesized that a nationwide program to enhance implementation of these best practices in pancreatic cancer care would improve survival and quality of life. METHODS/DESIGN: PACAP-1 is a nationwide multicenter stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled superiority trial. In a per-center stepwise and randomized manner, best practices in pancreatic cancer care regarding the use of (neo)adjuvant and palliative chemotherapy, pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy, and metal biliary stents are implemented in all 17 Dutch pancreatic centers and their regional referral networks during a 6-week initiation period. Per pancreatic center, one multidisciplinary team functions as reference for the other centers in the network. Key best practices were identified from the literature, 3 years of data from existing nationwide registries within the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Project (PACAP), and national expert meetings. The best practices follow the Dutch guideline on pancreatic cancer and the current state of the literature, and can be executed within daily clinical practice. The implementation process includes monitoring, return visits, and provider feedback in combination with education and reminders. Patient outcomes and compliance are monitored within the PACAP registries. Primary outcome is 1-year overall survival (for all disease stages). Secondary outcomes include quality of life, 3- and 5-year overall survival, and guideline compliance. An improvement of 10% in 1-year overall survival is considered clinically relevant. A 25-month study duration was chosen, which provides 80% statistical power for a mortality reduction of 10.0% in the 17 pancreatic cancer centers, with a required sample size of 2142 patients, corresponding to a 6.6% mortality reduction and 4769 patients nationwide. DISCUSSION: The PACAP-1 trial is designed to evaluate whether a nationwide program for enhanced implementation of best practices in pancreatic cancer care can improve 1-year overall survival and quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03513705. Trial opened for accrual on 22th May 2018.