Low-grade inflammation as a risk factor for cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes is a condition associated with a state of low-grade inflammation caused by adipose tissue dysfunction and insulin resistance. High sensitive-CRP (hs-CRP) is a marker for systemic low-grade inflammation and higher plasma levels have been associated with cardiovascular events in various populations. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the relation between hs-CRP and incident cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in high-risk type 2 diabetes patients. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of 1679 type 2 diabetes patients included in the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART). Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the risk of hs-CRP on cardiovascular events (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular mortality) and all-cause mortality. Hs-CRP was log-transformed for continuous analyses. Findings were adjusted for age, sex, BMI, current smoking and alcohol use, non-HDL-cholesterol and micro-albuminuria. RESULTS: 307 new cardiovascular events and 343 deaths occurred during a median follow-up of 7.8 years (IQR 4.2-11.1). A one unit increase in log(hs-CRP) was related to an increased vascular- and all-cause mortality risk (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.01-1.46 and HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.10-1.45 respectively). No relation was found between log(hs-CRP) and myocardial infarction or stroke. The relations were similar in patients with and without previous vascular disease. CONCLUSION: Low grade inflammation, as measured by hs-CRP, is an independent risk factor for vascular- and all-cause mortality but not for cardiovascular events in high-risk type 2 diabetes patients. Chronic low-grade inflammation may be a treatment target to lower residual cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes patients.

Relation between adiposity and vascular events, malignancy and mortality in patients with stable cerebrovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal adiposity is associated with various risk factors including hypertension, and is therefore particularly relevant in patients with stable cerebrovascular disease (CeVD). A U-shaped relation between body mass index (BMI, kg m-2) and cardiovascular events is often described. Whether this U-shape persists for abdominal adiposity, and consequently which reference values should guide clinical practice, is unclear. We described the relation between multiple adiposity measurements and risk of vascular events, vascular mortality, malignancy and all-cause mortality in patients with clinically stable CeVD. METHODS: During a median follow-up time of 6.8 years, 1767 patients were prospectively followed. Relations were assessed using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Adiposity was assessed with BMI, waist circumference (stratified by gender) and the contribution of visceral fat to total abdominal fat (VAT%) measured using ultrasound. Relations were nonlinear if the χ2-statistic of the nonlinear term was significant (P-value<0.05). Nadirs were reported for nonlinear and hazard ratios (HRs) for linear relations. RESULTS: The relations between BMI and outcomes were nonlinear with nadirs ranging between 27.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 21.9-29.3) kg m2 for vascular mortality and 28.1 (95% CI, 19.0-38.2)) kg m-2 for malignancy. The relation between waist circumference and all-cause mortality was nonlinear with a nadir of 84.0 (95% CI, 18.7-134.8) cm for females and 94.8 (95% CI, 80.3-100.1) cm for males. No nonlinearity was detected for VAT%. A 1-s.d. (9.8%) increase in VAT% was related to both vascular (HR, 1.23, 95% CI 1.00-1.51) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.22, 95% CI 1.05-1.42). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with CeVD, a BMI around 27-28 kg m-2 relates to the lowest risk of vascular events, vascular mortality, malignancy and all-cause mortality. However, increasing abdominal adiposity confers a higher risk of all-cause mortality. Thus, whereas traditional BMI cutoffs may be re-evaluated in this population, striving for low abdominal obesity should remain a goal.

Hippocampal volume and the course of depressive symptoms over eight years of follow-up.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association between hippocampal and total brain volume and the course of depressive symptoms over eight years of follow-up in patients with a history of vascular disease. METHOD: Within the SMART-Medea study, 636 participants (62 ± 10 years) had a 1.5-tesla brain MRI obtaining hippocampal and total brain volumes. Depressive symptoms were assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 biannually during eight-year follow-up. Generalized estimating equation models with robust standard errors were used to assess the associations of hippocampal and total brain volumes with depressive symptoms during follow-up adjusting for age, sex, education, and intracranial volume. An interaction term between volume and time (6-month intervals) was included to examine whether the course of depressive symptoms differed according to hippocampal and total brain volume. RESULTS: The mean PHQ-9 score was 2.8 ± 3.5. Smaller hippocampal volumes were associated with an increasing course of depressive symptom levels, while larger volumes were associated with decreasing levels (P-value interaction = 0.07). Smaller total brain volume was associated with consistently higher levels of depressive symptoms, but not with change in course of depressive symptoms (P-value interaction = 0.45). CONCLUSION: Smaller hippocampal volume but not total brain volume is associated with poorer course of depressive symptoms over eight years of follow-up.

Pemetrexed plus carboplatin versus pemetrexed in pretreated patients with advanced non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer: treating the right patients based on individualized treatment effect prediction.

BACKGROUND: Translating results from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to individual patients in clinical practice is challenging, as treatment effects can vary substantially among individuals. Data from RCTs can be used for individualized treatment effect prediction, to identify patients who benefit from specific treatments. In this study, we developed and validated a prediction model for estimating absolute treatment effect of pemetrexed plus carboplatin versus single-agent pemetrexed in the second-line treatment of non-squamous non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using data of relapsed patients with advanced non-squamous NSCLC from the NVALT-7 trial, a Weibull model for prediction of gain in median progression-free survival (PFS) by pemetrexed-carboplatin was derived based on patient and tumor characteristics. The model was externally validated in the GOIRC 02-2006 trial. The applicability of the model for guiding clinical decision-making was evaluated using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: A wide distribution of predicted gain in median PFS by pemetrexed-carboplatin over pemetrexed was found, with a median of 0.7 months (interquartile range: -0.1 to 1.5 months). Patients who benefited most included women, those with stage IV, high body mass index and/or adenocarcinoma. External validation showed satisfactory calibration and moderate discrimination (C-index: 0.61, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.67). Decision curve analysis confirmed that the model adequately identified patients who benefit from pemetrexed-carboplatin, as prediction-based treatment led to improvement in net benefit with regard to PFS and overall survival when assuming a treatment threshold of 0-5 months gain in PFS, compared with other treatment strategies. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of pemetrexed-carboplatin can be predicted for individual patients based on routinely available patient and tumor characteristics. There is important heterogeneity in the effects on PFS of pemetrexed-carboplatin versus pemetrexed in pretreated patients with advanced non-squamous NSCLC. Individualized prediction of treatment effect could be used to guide shared decision-making by discriminating patients who benefit most, to improve clinical outcome. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBERS: NVALT-7: ISRCTN38269072 (ISRCTN registry), GOIRC 02-2006: NCT00786331 (clinicaltrials.gov).

Individualized prediction of the effect of angiotensin receptor blockade on renal and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetic nephropathy.

AIMS: To predict individualized treatment effects of angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) on cardiovascular and renal complications in order to help clinicians and patients assess the benefit of treatment (or adherence) and estimate remaining disease risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In patients with diabetic nephropathy, the 3-year treatment effect of ARBs was predicted in terms of absolute risk reduction (ARR) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD; i.e. myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Competing-risk-adjusted proportional hazard models were developed based on the Irbesartan Diabetic Nephropathy Trial (IDNT) and externally validated in the Reduction of Endpoints NIDDM with Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL) trial. RESULTS: Predictors included in the model were age, sex, smoking sex, systolic blood pressure, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate, albumin and phosphorus. The median predicted 3-year risk without treatment was 6.0% for ESRD and 28.0% for CVD and mortality. The median [interquartile range (IQR)] predicted 3-year ARR was 1.2 (0.4-3.1)% for ESRD and 2.2 (1.8-2.6)% for CVD and mortality, resulting in a combined ARR of 3.4 (2.4-5.5)%. The remaining disease risk was 4.7 (IQR 1.7-12.8)% for ESRD and 25.8% (IQR 20.3-31.9)% for CVD and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The combined effects of ARBs on ESRD and CVD and mortality in patients with diabetic nephropathy vary considerably between patients. A substantial proportion of patients remain at high risk for both outcomes despite ARB treatment.

Influence of APOE-2 genotype on the relation between adiposity and plasma lipid levels in patients with vascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotypes are associated with different plasma lipid levels. People with the APO ɛ2 genotype can develop a disorder called dysbetalipoproteinemia (DBL). A possible predisposing factor for DBL is adiposity. We evaluated whether and to what extent the APOE genotype modifies the relation between adiposity and lipids in patients with manifest arterial disease and we looked at possible determinants of DBL in ɛ2 homo- and heterozygote patients. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was performed in 5450 patients with manifest arterial disease from the Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) study. The APOE genotype was measured in all patients and revealed 58 ɛ2 homozygotes, 663 ɛ2 heterozygotes, 3181 ɛ3 homozygotes and 1548 ɛ4 carriers. The main dependent variable was non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-c). The relation between adiposity (including body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (waist), visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and metabolic syndrome (MetS)) and lipids was evaluated with linear regression analyses. Determinants of DBL were evaluated using logistic regression. RESULTS: There was significant effect modification by the APOE genotype on the relation between non-HDL-c and BMI, waist, VAT and MetS. There was an association between BMI and non-HDL-c in ɛ2 homozygotes (ß 0.173, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.031-0.314, P=0.018) and ɛ4 carriers (ß 0.033, 95% CI 0.020-0.046, P<0.001). In all genotypes, there was an effect of waist, VAT and MetS on non-HDL-c, but these effects were most distinct in ɛ2 homozygotes (waist ß 0.063, 95% CI 0.015-0.110, P=0.011; VAT ß 0.580, 95% CI 0.270-0.889, P=0.001; MetS ß 1.760, 95% CI 0.668-2.852, P=0.002). Determinants of DBL in ɛ2 homo- and heterozygotes were VAT and MetS. CONCLUSION: The APOE genotype modifies the relation between adiposity and plasma lipid levels in patients with vascular disease. The relation between adiposity and lipids is present in all patients, but it is most distinct in ɛ2 homozygote patients. Abdominal fat and MetS are determinants of DBL.

Cognitive performance and the course of depressive symptoms over 7 years of follow-up: the SMART-MR study.

BACKGROUND: Depressive symptoms and cognitive impairment often co-occur, but their interactive relationship is complex and the direction of causation is still a topic of research. We examined the influence of cognitive performance on the course of depressive symptoms during 7 years of follow-up in patients with vascular disease. METHOD: Within the SMART-MR study, 736 patients (mean age 62 ± 10 years) had neuropsychological assessment on four cognitive domains at baseline [memory (MEM), working memory (WMEM), executive functioning (EXEC), and information processing speed (SPEED)]. Depressive symptoms were assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) at baseline and every 6 months during 7 years of follow-up. Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) models were used to assess the association between cognitive performance with depressive symptoms at multiple time points during follow-up. Interaction terms between the respective cognitive domains and time was included to examine if the course of depressive symptoms differed according to baseline cognitive performance. RESULTS: The GEE analyses showed no significant interactions between the respective cognitive domains and time indicating no different course of depressive symptoms according to baseline cognitive performance. Lower MEM, EXEC or SPEED, but not WMEM performance, was significantly associated with more depressive symptoms during follow-up per z score decrease: MEM [B = 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35-1.05]; EXEC (B = 0.88, 95% CI 0.41-1.36), and SPEED (B = 0.57, 95% CI 0.21-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Poorer cognitive performance on the domains MEM, EXEC and SPEED, but not WMEM, was associated with higher levels of depressive symptoms over 7 years of follow-up, but not with a different course of depressive symptoms over time.

Childhood maltreatment modifies the relationship of depression with hippocampal volume.

BACKGROUND: Childhood maltreatment (CM) may modify the relationship between major depressive disorder (MDD) and hippocampal volume reduction. To disentangle the impact of MDD and CM on hippocampal volume we investigated the association between MDD and hippocampal volume in persons with and without a history of CM in two independent cohorts. METHOD: We used data of 262 participants from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) (mean age 37 years, 32% male) and 636 participants from the SMART-Medea study (mean age 61 years, 81% male). In both studies a 12-month diagnosis of MDD and CM were assessed using a diagnostic interview. Hippocampal volume was measured in NESDA using FreeSurfer software on 3-T magnetic resonance (MR) images and in SMART it was manually outlined on 1.5-T MR images. With analysis of covariance adjusted for intracranial volume, age, gender and lifestyle factors we estimated the effects of MDD and CM on hippocampal volume. RESULTS: In both cohorts CM was not significantly associated with hippocampal volume. After pooling the data MDD was associated with smaller hippocampal volume (B = -138.90 mm(3), p = 0.05) and the interaction between MDD and CM reached significance (p = 0.04); in participants with CM, MDD was related to smaller hippocampal volume (NESDA: B = -316.8 mm(3), p = 0.02; SMART: B = -407.6, p = 0.046), but not in participants without CM (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that in two independent cohorts, particularly in individuals with CM, a diagnosis of MDD is related to smaller hippocampal volume. Prospective studies are needed to further determine through which mechanism CM may amplify the relationship between MDD and hippocampal volume.

Osteoporosis markers on low-dose lung cancer screening chest computed tomography scans predict all-cause mortality.

OBJECTIVES: Further survival benefits may be gained from low-dose chest computed tomography (CT) by assessing vertebral fractures and bone density. We sought to assess the association between CT-measured vertebral fractures and bone density with all-cause mortality in lung cancer screening participants. METHODS: Following a case-cohort design, lung cancer screening trial participants (N = 3,673) who died (N = 196) during a median follow-up of 6 years (inter-quartile range: 5.7-6.3) were identified and added to a random sample of N = 383 from the trial. We assessed vertebral fractures using Genant's semiquantative method on sagittal reconstructions and measured bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU)) in vertebrae. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine if vertebral fractures or bone density were independently predictive of mortality. RESULTS: The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 35% (95% confidence interval 30-40%) among survivors and 51% (44-58%) amongst cases. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, pack years smoked, coronary and aortic calcium volume and pulmonary emphysema, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for vertebral fracture was 2.04 (1.43-2.92). For each 10 HU decline in trabecular bone density, the adjusted HR was 1.08 (1.02-1.15). CONCLUSIONS: Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently associated with all-cause mortality. KEY POINTS: • Lung cancer screening chest computed tomography contains additional, potentially useful information. • Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently predictive of mortality. • This finding has implications for screening and management decisions.

Risk Chart for Future Mortality and Ischaemic Events Following Peripheral Bypass Surgery.

OBJECTIVES: A prediction model to identify determinants and quantify the risk of future ischaemic events in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) provides a personal risk profile to offer individualized patient care. A risk chart was derived and validated in patients who received infrainguinal bypass surgery. METHODS: The Bypass Oral anticoagulants or Aspirin Risk Chart (BOA-RC2) was based on a pre-defined subgroup of the Dutch BOA trial (N = 482), the derivation cohort. The primary outcome event for BOA-RC2 was the composite of all cause death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal ischaemic stroke during a 10 year follow up. Determinants and long-term risk were identified with multivariate Cox regression analyses. Validation of the BOA-RC2 was performed in the remaining patients of the complete BOA trial cohort (N = 2,650 - 482 = 2,168), the validation cohort. RESULTS: The primary outcome event occurred in 67% (321/454) of the derivation cohort and in 66% (1,371/2,083) of the validation cohort during a median follow up of 6.6 years. The BOA-RC2 included the following determinants: age, critical limb ischaemia, diabetes, and a prior vascular intervention. The performance of the BOA-RC2 was good with a Brier score of 0.19, an area under the curve of 0.73, and a Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic of p = .9. CONCLUSIONS: The BOA-RC2 proves to be fit for the prediction of mortality and major ischaemic events in patients after peripheral bypass surgery. The BOA-RC2 can be used to adequately inform the patient about his/her risk of future events in an illustrative manner and stress the necessity of preventative measures, such as lifestyle adjustments, screening for risk factors, and drug treatments. In the future, the BOA-RC2 may be of interest to identify patients at high risk of mortality and ischaemic events for clinical research on new therapeutic options.

Predictive value of thrombus attenuation on thin-slice non-contrast CT for persistent occlusion after intravenous thrombolysis.

BACKGROUND: In stroke erythrocyte-rich thrombi are more sensitive to intravenous thrombolysis with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IV-rtPA) and have higher density on non-contrast CT (NCCT). We investigated the relationship between thrombus density and recanalization and whether persistent occlusions can be predicted by Hounsfield unit (HU) measurements. METHODS: In 88 IV-rtPA-treated patients with intracranial ICA or MCA occluding thrombus and follow-up imaging, thrombus and contralateral vessel attenuation measurements were performed on thin-slice NCCT. Mean absolute and relative HU were compared between patients with persistent occlusion (modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction system, grade 0/1/2a) and recanalization (grade 2b/3). Univariate and multivariate (adjusted for stroke subtype, clot burden score, occlusion site and time to thrombolysis) odds ratios for persistent occlusion were calculated. Additional prognostic value for persistent occlusion was estimated by adding HU measurements to the area under the curve (AUC) of known determinants and calculating optimal cut-off values. RESULTS: Patients with persistent occlusion (n = 19) had significant lower mean HU (absolute 52.2 ± 9.5, relative 1.29 ± 0.20) compared to recanalization (absolute 63.1 ± 10.7, relative 1.54 ± 0.23, both p < 0.0001). Odds ratios for persistent occlusion were 3.1 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.6-6.0) univariate and 3.1 (95% CI 1.7-5.7) multivariate per 10 absolute HU decrease and 3.2 (95% CI 1.6-6.5) univariate and 4.1 (95% CI 1.8-9.1) multivariate per 0.20 relative HU decrease. Attenuation measurements significantly increased the AUC (0.67) of the known determinants to 0.84 (absolute HU) and 0.86 (relative HU). Cut-off values of <56.5 absolute HU and <1.38 relative HU showed optimal predictive values for persistent occlusion. CONCLUSIONS: Thrombus density is related to recanalization rate. Lower absolute and relative HU are independently related to persistent occlusion and HU measurements significantly increase discriminative performances of known recanalization determinants.

Low blood pressure and antihypertensive treatment are independently associated with physical and mental health status in patients with arterial disease: the SMART study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the independent effects of antihypertensive treatment and blood pressure (BP) levels on physical and mental health status in patients with arterial disease. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional analyses were conducted within the single-centre Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) study, in a hospital care setting. SUBJECTS: A total of 5877 patients (mean age 57 years) with symptomatic and asymptomatic arterial disease underwent standardized vascular screening. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was self-rated physical and mental health assessed using the 36-item short-form health survey. RESULTS: In the total population, antihypertensive drug use and increased intensity of antihypertensive treatment were associated with poorer health status independent of important confounders including BP levels; adjusted mean differences [95% confidence interval (CI)] in physical and mental health between n = 0 and n ≥ 3 antihypertensives were -1.2 (-2.1; -0.3) and -3.5 (-4.4; -2.6), respectively. Furthermore, both lower systolic and lower diastolic BP levels were related to poorer physical and mental health status independent of antihypertensive treatment. Mean differences (95% CI) in physical and mental health status per SD decrease in systolic BP were -0.56 (-0.84; -0.27) and -0.32 (-0.61; -0.03) and per SD decrease in diastolic BP were -0.50 (-0.78; -0.23) and -0.08 (-0.36; 0.20), respectively. The association between low BP and poor health status was particularly present in patients with coronary artery disease. CONCLUSIONS: In a population of patients with asymptomatic and symptomatic arterial disease, antihypertensive treatment and lower BP levels are independently associated with poorer self-rated physical and mental health. These findings suggest that different underlying mechanisms may explain these independent associations.

Relationship between thrombus attenuation and different stroke subtypes.

INTRODUCTION: More insights in the etiopathogenesis of thrombi could be helpful in the treatment of patients with acute ischemic stroke. The aim of our study was to determine the relationship between presence of a hyperdense vessel sign and thrombus density with different stroke subtypes. METHODS: We included 123 patients with acute ischemic anterior circulation stroke and a visible occlusion on CT-angiography caused by cardioembolism (n = 53), large artery atherosclerosis (n = 55), or dissection (n = 15). Presence or absence of a hyperdense vessel sign was assessed and thrombus density was measured in Hounsfield Units (HU) on non-contrast 1 mm thin slices CT. Subsequently, occurrence of hyperdense vessel sign and thrombus density (absolute HU and rHU (=HU thrombus/HU contralateral)) were related with stroke subtypes. RESULTS: The presence of hyperdense vessel signs differed significantly among subtypes and was found in 45, 64 and 93 % of patients with cardioembolism, large artery atherosclerosis and dissection, respectively (p = 0.003). The mean HU and rHU (+95 % CI) of the thrombi in all vessels were respectively 56.1 (53.2-59.0) and 1.39 (1.33-1.45) in cardioembolism, 64.6 (62.2-66.9) and 1.59 (1.54-1.64) in large artery atherosclerosis and 76.4 (73.0-79.8) and 1.88 (1.79-1.97) in dissection (p < 0.0001). We found the same significant ranking order in the density of thrombi with hyperdense vessel signs (mean HU and rHU (+95 % CI), respectively): cardioembolism 61.3 (57.4-65.3) and 1.49 (57.4-65.3); large artery atherosclerosis 67.3 (64.9-69.7) and 1.65 (1.58-1.71); dissection 76.4 (72.6-80.1) and 1.89 (1.79-1.99, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Presence of a hyperdense vessel sign and thrombus density are related to stroke subtype.

Self-rated health status as a risk factor for future vascular events and mortality in patients with symptomatic and asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease: the SMART study.

OBJECTIVES: Lower self-rated health status has been associated with worse prognosis in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We investigated the influence of self-rated physical and mental health status on the risk of future vascular events and mortality for various locations of symptomatic atherosclerotic disease and asymptomatic disease. DESIGN: Patients with CAD (n = 2547), cerebrovascular disease (n = 1061), peripheral arterial disease (PAD; n = 648), abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA; n = 272) and asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease (n = 1933) were followed for a median of 4 years for the occurrence of a new vascular event or death. Self-rated health status was assessed with the Short Form-36 physical and mental component summary scales. Cox regression models were used to estimate associations between health status and vascular events and death, adjusted for age, sex, vascular risk factors and intima-media thickness. RESULTS: In the total population, lower self-rated physical health status (per 10-point decrease) increased the risk of vascular events [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24-1.52], and all-cause (HR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.29-1.63) and vascular mortality (HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.20-1.64). A 10-point decrease in mental health status was associated with a modest increase in the risk of vascular events (HR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.08-1.32), and all-cause (HR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.05-1.34) and vascular mortality (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.09-1.49). Risk estimates of physical and mental health status were highest in patients with asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and lowest in those with PAD. CONCLUSIONS: Poorer self-rated physical and mental health status increases the risk of vascular events and mortality in a broad population of patients with symptomatic and asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease.

The risk of general and abdominal adiposity in the occurrence of new vascular events and mortality in patients with various manifestations of vascular disease.

AIMS: Adiposity is associated with an increased but also with a decreased risk for successive vascular events or mortality in patients with different manifestations of vascular disease. In this study we directly compare the risk of general adiposity or abdominal obesity on the occurrence of new vascular events or mortality in these patients. METHODS: Patients with cerebrovascular disease (CVD; n=973), coronary artery disease (CAD; n=2339) or peripheral arterial disease (PAD; n=894) were prospectively followed for the occurrence of a vascular event or death. The median follow-up was 4.5 years. Adiposity was assessed with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and determination of intra-abdominal fat through ultrasound. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the risk for new vascular events, vascular mortality and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: CAD patients had a 12% increased risk for vascular mortality with 1 BMI unit increase (hazard ratio (HR) 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.20) and a 25% increased risk with 1cm increase in intra-abdominal adipose tissue (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.12-1.39). The risk for all-cause mortality was increased by 3% (HR 1.03; 95% CI 1.01-1.05) with 1 cm increase in WC and was increased by 15% (HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.06-1.25) with 1 cm increase in intra-abdominal adipose tissue. In PAD patients there was an inverse relationship between BMI and vascular mortality (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-0.98) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.86-0.94). In CVD patients there was no relation between obesity and vascular events or mortality. CONCLUSION: General adiposity is associated with an increased risk for vascular mortality in CAD patients and a decreased risk for (vascular) mortality in PAD patients.

Location and progression of cerebral small-vessel disease and atrophy, and depressive symptom profiles: the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART)-Medea study.

BACKGROUND: The 'vascular depression' hypothesis states that brain changes located in frontal-subcortical pathways increase vulnerability for specific depressive symptom profiles, but studies examining locations of small-vessel and degenerative changes with individual symptoms are scarce. We examined whether location and progression of white-matter lesions (WMLs), lacunar infarcts and atrophy were associated with motivational and mood symptoms in patients with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease. METHOD: In 578 patients [63 (s.d.=8) years] of the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART)-Medea study, volumes of WMLs and atrophy and visually rated infarcts were obtained with 1.5 T magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and after 3.9 (s.d.=0.4) years' follow-up. Depressive symptoms were assessed with Patient Health Questionnaire-9 at follow-up and categorized into motivational and mood symptoms. RESULTS: Regression analyses adjusted for age, gender, education, Mini-Mental State Examination, physical functioning, antidepressant use and vascular risk factors showed that location in mainly deep white-matter tracts and progression of WMLs were associated with symptoms of anhedonia, concentration problems, psychomotor retardation and appetite disturbance. Lacunar infarcts in deep white matter were associated with greater motivational [Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-2.4] and mood (IRR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.6) sumscores, and with symptoms of psychomotor retardation, energy loss and depressed mood; lacunar infarcts in the thalamus were associated with psychomotor retardation only. Cortical atrophy was associated with symptoms of anhedonia and appetite disturbance. Excluding patients with major depression did not materially change the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that disruption of frontal-subcortical pathways by small-vessel lesions leads to a symptom profile that is mainly characteristic of motivational problems, also in the absence of major depression.

Waist circumference and metabolic risk factors have separate and additive effects on the risk of future Type 2 diabetes in patients with vascular diseases. A cohort study.

AIMS: To assess the effect of various measures of adiposity and of metabolic risk factors, both separately and in combination, on the risk of future Type 2 diabetes in patients with manifest vascular diseases. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study in 2924 patients (mean age 59 ± 12 years) with manifest atherosclerosis. Metabolic risk factors were defined according to National Cholesterol Education Program criteria for the metabolic syndrome. Incidence of Type 2 diabetes was assessed by questionnaire and subsequent verification. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.9 years (range 3.0-7.6 years) there were 178 cases (6.1%) of incident Type 2 diabetes. An increase with 1 sd waist circumference showed a strong association with incident Type 2 diabetes in both men (hazard ratio 2.45, 95% CI 1.97-3.04) and women (hazard ratio 1.77, 95% CI 1.38-2.26). Compared with patients with normal (i.e. below the National Cholesterol Education Program criteria for abdominal adiposity) waist circumference and < 3 metabolic risk factors, both patients with normal waist circumference and ≥ 3 metabolic risk factors and patients with high (i.e. above the National Cholesterol Education Program criteria for abdominal adiposity) waist circumference and < 3 metabolic risk factors had an increased risk of Type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio 2.44, 95% CI 1.37-4.36 and hazard ratio 3.61, 95% CI 2.23-5.85, respectively). Patients with both high waist circumference and ≥ 3 metabolic risk factors had the highest risk of developing Type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio 10.76, 95% CI 6.95-16.64). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with manifest atherosclerosis, both presence of ≥ 3 metabolic risk factors and presence of a high waist circumference alone are associated with increased risk for developing Type 2 diabetes. The combined presence of ≥ 3 metabolic risk factors and high waist circumference, which is present in 15% of patients, is associated with a 10-fold increased risk of future Type 2 diabetes. To identify patients with manifest atherosclerosis at the highest risk of developing Type 2 diabetes, fat distribution in combination with metabolic risk factors should be considered.

Predicting 10-year risk of recurrent cardiovascular events andcardiovascular interventions in patients with established cardiovascular disease: results from UCC-SMART and REACH.

BACKGROUND: Existing cardiovascular risk scores for patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) estimate residual risk of recurrent major cardiovascular events (MACE). The aim of the current study is to develop and externally validate a prediction model to estimate the 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions (MACE+) in patients with established CVD. METHODS: Data of patients with established CVD from the UCC-SMART cohort (N = 8421) were used for model development, and patient data from REACH Western Europe (N = 14,528) and REACH North America (N = 19,495) for model validation. Predictors were selected based on the existing SMART risk score. A Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted 10-year risk model was developed for the combined outcome MACE+. The model was validated in all patients and in strata of coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), peripheral artery disease (PAD). RESULTS: External calibration for 2-year risk in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America was good, c-statistics were moderate: 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. In strata of CVD at baseline good external calibration was observed in patients with CHD and CeVD, however, poor calibration was seen in patients with PAD. C-statistics for patients with CHD were 0.60 and 0.57, for patients with CeVD 0.62 and 0.61, and for patients with PAD 0.53 and 0.54 in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions can be estimated in patients with established CHD or CeVD. However, cardiovascular interventions in patients with PAD could not be predicted reliably.

Effectiveness of a hospital-based vascular screening programme (SMART) for risk factor management in patients with established vascular disease or type 2 diabetes: a parallel-group comparative study.

AIMS: Modification of vascular risk factors is effective in reducing mortality and morbidity in patients with symptomatic atherosclerosis; however, it is difficult to achieve and maintain. The aim of the Risk management in Utrecht and Leiden Evaluation (RULE) study was to assess risk factor status after referral in patients with established vascular disease or type 2 diabetes who took part in the multidisciplinary hospital-based vascular screening programme, Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease, compared with a group who did not participate in such a programme. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease or peripheral arterial disease referred by general practitioners to the medical specialist at the University Medical Center (UMC) Utrecht (a setting with a vascular screening programme of systematic screening of risk factors followed by treatment advice) and the Leiden UMC (a setting without such a screening programme), were enrolled in the study. Blood pressure, levels of lipids, glucose and creatinine, weight, waist circumference and smoking status were measured in patients 12-18 months after referral to the two hospitals. A total of 604 patients were treated in the setting with a vascular screening programme and 566 in the setting without such a programme; 70% of all patients were male, with a mean age of 61 +/- 10 years. Amongst screened patients, systolic blood pressure [2.5 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.3-4.6] and the level of LDL cholesterol (0.3 mmol L(-1), 95% CI 0.2-0.4) were lower compared with the group that received usual care, after a median of 16 months from referral. CONCLUSION: Systematic screening of risk factors, followed by evidence-based, tailored treatment advice contributed to slightly better risk factor reduction in patients with established vascular disease or type 2 diabetes. However, a large proportion of patients did not reach the treatment goals according to (inter)national guidelines. Systematic screening of vascular risk factors alone is not enough for adequate risk factor management in high-risk patients.