Prediction of individualized lifetime benefit from cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people.

AIMS: The benefit an individual can expect from preventive therapy varies based on risk-factor burden, competing risks, and treatment duration. We developed and validated the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model for the estimation of individual-level 10 years and lifetime treatment-effects of cholesterol lowering, blood pressure lowering, antithrombotic therapy, and smoking cessation in apparently healthy people. METHODS AND RESULTS: Model development was conducted in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6715) using clinical predictors. The model consists of two complementary Fine and Gray competing-risk adjusted left-truncated subdistribution hazard functions: one for hard cardiovascular disease (CVD)-events, and one for non-CVD mortality. Therapy-effects were estimated by combining the functions with hazard ratios from preventive therapy trials. External validation was performed in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (n = 9250), Heinz Nixdorf Recall (n = 4177), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (n = 25 833), and Norfolk (n = 23 548) studies. Calibration of the LIFE-CVD model was good and c-statistics were 0.67-0.76. The output enables the comparison of short-term vs. long-term therapy-benefit. In two people aged 45 and 70 with otherwise identical risk-factors, the older patient has a greater 10-year absolute risk reduction (11.3% vs. 1.0%) but a smaller gain in life-years free of CVD (3.4 vs. 4.5 years) from the same therapy. The model was developed into an interactive online calculator available via www.U-Prevent.com. CONCLUSION: The model can accurately estimate individual-level prognosis and treatment-effects in terms of improved 10-year risk, lifetime risk, and life-expectancy free of CVD. The model is easily accessible and can be used to facilitate personalized-medicine and doctor-patient communication.

Individual Treatment Effect Estimation of 2 Doses of Dabigatran on Stroke and Major Bleeding in Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate absolute benefit and harm from treatment with dabigatran in individual patients with atrial fibrillation, and to select the optimal dose for each individual. METHODS: We derived and validated a prediction model for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation from the 3 treatment arms of the RE-LY trial (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy With Dabigatran Etexilate) (n=11 955 in derivation cohort, n=6158 in validation cohort). Readily available patient characteristics were included in Fine and Gray competing risk models (sex, age, smoking, antiplatelet drugs, previous vascular disease, diabetes mellitus, blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin). Five-year risks for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were estimated without anticoagulation therapy, and compared with high- and low-dose dabigatran. RESULTS: Model calibration was good, and discrimination was adequate with a c-statistic of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.70) for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71) for major bleeding. The 5-year absolute risk reduction for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism with dabigatran 150 mg twice daily ranged from <10% in 20% of patients to >25% in 14% of patients, and the 5-year absolute risk increase for major bleeding ranged from <5% in 53% of patients to 15% to 20% in 1% of patients. Comparing high-dose to low-dose dabigatran, the net benefit (absolute risk reduction minus absolute risk increase) was positive for 46% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The absolute treatment benefits and harms of dabigatran in atrial fibrillation can be estimated based on readily available patient characteristics. Such treatment effect estimations can be used for shared decision making before starting dabigatran treatment and to determine the optimal dose. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00262600.

Development of a clinical decision tool to reduce diagnostic testing for primary aldosteronism in patients with difficult-to-control hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Satisfactory tools to preclude low-risk patients from intensive diagnostic testing for primary aldosteronism (PA) are lacking. Therefore, we aimed to develop a decision tool to determine which patients with difficult-to-control hypertension have a low probability of PA, thereby limiting the exposure to invasive testing while at the same time increasing the efficiency of testing in the remaining patients. METHODS: Data from consecutive patients with difficult-to-control hypertension, analysed through a standardized diagnostic protocol between January 2010 and October 2017 (n = 824), were included in this cross-sectional study. PA was diagnosed by a combined approach: 1) elevated aldosterone-to-renin ratio (> 5.0 pmol/fmol/s), confirmed with 2) non-suppressible aldosterone after standardized saline infusion (≥280 pmol/L). Multivariable logistic regression analyses including seven pre-specified clinical variables (age, systolic blood pressure, serum potassium, potassium supplementation, serum sodium, eGFR and HbA1c) was performed. After correction for optimism, test reliability, discriminative performance and test characteristics were determined. RESULTS: PA was diagnosed in 40 (4.9%) of 824 patients. Predicted probabilities of PA agreed well with observed frequencies and the c-statistic was 0.77 (95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.70-0.83). Predicted probability cut-off values of 1.0-2.5% prevented unnecessary testing in 8-32% of the patients with difficult-to-control hypertension, carrying sensitivities of 0.98 (95%CI 0.96-0.99) and 0.92 (0.83-0.97), and negative predictive values of 0.99 (0.98-1.00) and 0.99 (0.97-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: With a decision tool, based on seven easy-to-measure clinical variables, patients with a low probability of PA can be reliably selected and a considerable proportion of patients with difficult-to-control hypertension can be spared intensive diagnostic testing.

The relation between systemic inflammation and incident cancer in patients with stable cardiovascular disease: a cohort study.

AIMS: Low-grade inflammation, measured by elevated plasma concentrations of high-sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is evidence that low-grade inflammation is also related to a higher risk of cancer. The present prospective cohort study evaluates the relation between low-grade systemic inflammation and risk of cancer in patients with stable CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: In total, 7178 patients with stable CVD and plasma CRP levels ≤10 mg/L were included. Data were linked to the Dutch national cancer registry. Cox regression models were fitted to study the relation between CRP and incident CVD and cancer. After a median follow-up time of 8.3 years (interquartile range 4.6-12.3) 1072 incident cancer diagnoses were observed. C-reactive protein concentration was related to total cancer [hazard ratio (HR) 1.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.65] comparing last quintile to first quintile of CRP. Especially lung cancer, independent of histopathological subtype, was related to CRP (HR 3.39; 95% CI 2.02-5.69 comparing last to first quintile of CRP). Incidence of epithelial neoplasms and especially squamous cell neoplasms were related to CRP concentration, irrespective of anatomical location. Sensitivity analyses after excluding patients with a cancer diagnosis within 1, 2, and 5 years of follow-up showed similar results. No effect modification was observed by smoking status or time since smoking cessation (P-values for interaction > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Chronic systemic low-grade inflammation, measured by CRP levels ≤10 mg/L, is a risk factor for incident cancer, markedly lung cancer, in patients with stable CVD. The relation between inflammation and incident cancer is seen in former and current smokers and is uncertain in never smokers.

Estimating individual lifetime benefit and bleeding risk of adding rivaroxaban to aspirin for patients with stable cardiovascular disease: results from the COMPASS trial.

AIMS: Adding rivaroxaban to aspirin in patients with stable atherosclerotic disease reduces the recurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) but increases the risk of major bleeding. The aim of this study was to estimate the individual lifetime treatment benefit and harm of adding low-dose rivaroxaban to aspirin in patients with stable cardiovascular disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with established CVD from the COMPASS trial (n = 27 390) and SMART prospective cohort study (n = 8139) were used. Using the pre-existing lifetime SMART-REACH model for recurrent CVD, and a newly developed Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted lifetime model for major bleeding, individual treatment effects from adding low-dose rivaroxaban to aspirin in patients with stable CVD were estimated, expressed in terms of (i) life-years free of stroke or myocardial infarction (MI) gained; and (ii) life-years free from major bleeding lost. Calibration of the SMART-REACH model for prediction of recurrent CVD events in the COMPASS study was good. The major bleeding risk model as derived in the COMPASS trial showed good external calibration in the SMART cohort. Predicted individual gain in life expectancy free of stroke or MI from added low-dose rivaroxaban had a median of 16 months (range 1-48 months), while predicted individualized lifetime lost in terms of major bleeding had a median of 2 months (range 0-20 months). CONCLUSION: There is a wide distribution in lifetime gain and harm from adding low-dose rivaroxaban to aspirin in individual patients with stable CVD. Using these lifetime models, benefits and bleeding risk can be weighed for each individual patient, which could facilitate treatment decisions in clinical practice.

Prediction of individual life-years gained without cardiovascular events from lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment based on data of more than 500 000 patients with Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

AIMS: Although group-level effectiveness of lipid, blood pressure, glucose, and aspirin treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been proven by trials, important differences in absolute effectiveness exist between individuals. We aim to develop and validate a prediction tool for individualizing lifelong CVD prevention in people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) predicting life-years gained without myocardial infarction or stroke. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed and validated the Diabetes Lifetime-perspective prediction (DIAL) model, consisting of two complementary competing risk adjusted Cox proportional hazards functions using data from people with T2DM registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry (n = 389 366). Competing outcomes were (i) CVD events (vascular mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) and (ii) non-vascular mortality. Predictors were age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, haemoglobin A1c, estimated glomerular filtration rate, non- high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albuminuria, T2DM duration, insulin treatment, and history of CVD. External validation was performed using data from the ADVANCE, ACCORD, ASCOT and ALLHAT-LLT-trials, the SMART and EPIC-NL cohorts, and the Scottish diabetes register (total n = 197 785). Predicted and observed CVD-free survival showed good agreement in all validation sets. C-statistics for prediction of CVD were 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.84) and 0.64-0.65 for internal and external validation, respectively. We provide an interactive calculator at www.U-Prevent.com that combines model predictions with relative treatment effects from trials to predict individual benefit from preventive treatment. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular disease-free life expectancy and effects of lifelong prevention in terms of CVD-free life-years gained can be estimated for people with T2DM using readily available clinical characteristics. Predictions of individual-level treatment effects facilitate translation of trial results to individual patients.

Intracranial Vessel Wall Lesions on 7T MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging).

Background and Purpose- Intracranial vessel wall lesions are a novel imaging marker of intracranial atherosclerosis (ICAS), but data on their occurrence and risk factors are lacking. Our aim was to study the frequency, distribution, and risk factors of intracranial vessel wall lesions on 7T magnetic resonance imaging in patients with a history of vascular disease. Methods- Within the SMART-MR study (Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease-Magnetic Resonance), cross-sectional analyses were performed in 130 patients (68±9 years) with assessable 7T intracranial vessel wall-magnetic resonance imaging data. Associations between vascular risk factors and ICAS burden, defined as the total number of vessel wall lesions, were estimated using linear regression analyses with ICAS burden as the dependent variable, adjusted for age and sex. Results- Ninety-six percent of patients had ≥1 vessel wall lesion. The mean±SD (range) ICAS burden was 8.5±5.7 (0-32) lesions. Significant associations were found between ICAS burden and age ( b=2.0 per +10 years; 95% CI, 0.81- 3.10), systolic blood pressure ( b=0.9 per +10 mm Hg; 95% CI, 0.27-1.42), diabetes mellitus ( b=3.2 for presence of diabetes mellitus; 95% CI, 0.79-5.72), hemoglobin A1c level ( b=1.2 per +1%; 95% CI, 0.19-2.26), apoB (apolipoprotein-B) ( b=4.7 per +1 g/L; 95% CI, 0.07-9.35), and hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) level ( b=2.7 for hs-CRP >3 mg/L; 95% CI, 0.22-5.11). No significant associations were found with sex, smoking, and other lipid-factors. Conclusions- Vessel wall lesions are a novel and direct magnetic resonance imaging marker of ICAS. In this cohort, 96% of patients had at least 1 lesion on 7T vessel wall-magnetic resonance imaging. More lesions were found with older age, higher systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, and higher levels of hemoglobin A1c, apoB, and hs-CRP.

Smoking cessation and risk of recurrent cardiovascular events and mortality after a first manifestation of arterial disease.

AIMS: To quantify the relation between smoking cessation after a first cardiovascular (CV) event and risk of recurrent CV events and mortality. METHODS: Data were available from 4,673 patients aged 61 ± 8.7 years, with a recent (≤1 year) first manifestation of arterial disease participating in the SMART-cohort. Cox models were used to quantify the relation between smoking status and risk of recurrent major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events (MACE including stroke, MI and vascular mortality) and mortality. In addition, survival according to smoking status was plotted, taking competing risk of non-vascular mortality into account. RESULTS: A third of the smokers stopped after their first CV event. During a median of 7.4 (3.7-10.8) years of follow-up, 794 patients died and 692 MACE occurred. Compared to patients who continued to smoke, patients who quit had a lower risk of recurrent MACE (adjusted HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.49-0.88) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.48-0.82). Patients who reported smoking cessation on average lived 5 life years longer and recurrent MACE occurred 10 years later. In patients with a first CV event >70 years, cessation of smoking had improved survival which on average was comparable to former or never smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Irrespective of age at first CV event, cessation of smoking after a first CV event is related to a substantial lower risk of recurrent vascular events and all-cause mortality. Since smoking cessation is more effective in reducing CV risk than any pharmaceutical treatment of major risk factors, it should be a key objective for patients with vascular disease.

Mediation analysis of the relationship between type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality: Findings from the SMART cohort.

AIM: To quantify the magnitude and specific contributions of known cardiovascular risk factors leading to higher cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality caused by type 2 diabetes (T2D). METHODS: Mediation analysis was performed to assess the relative contributions of known classical risk factors for vascular disease in T2D (insulin resistance, systolic blood pressure, renal function, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides and micro-albuminuria), and what proportion of the effect of T2D on cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality these factors mediate in the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort consisting of 1910 T2D patients. RESULTS: Only 35% (95% CI 15-71%) of the excess cardiovascular risk caused by T2D is mediated by the classical cardiovascular risk factors. The largest mediated effect was through insulin resistance [proportion of mediated effect (PME) 18%, 95% CI 3-37%], followed by elevated triglycerides (PME 8%, 95% CI 4-14%) and micro-albuminuria (PME 7%, 95% CI 3-17%). Only 42% (95% CI 18-73%) of the excess mortality risk was mediated by the classical risk factors considered. The largest mediated effect was by micro-albuminuria (PME 18%, 95% CI 10-29%) followed by insulin resistance (PME 15%, 95% CI 1-33%). CONCLUSION: A substantial amount of the increased cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality caused by T2D cannot be explained by traditional vascular risk factors. Future research should focus on identifying non-classical pathways that might further explain the increased cardiovascular and mortality risk caused by T2D.

Computed Tomography Perfusion Derived Blood-Brain Barrier Permeability Does Not Yet Improve Prediction of Hemorrhagic Transformation.

INTRODUCTION: Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in acute ischemic stroke can occur as a result of reperfusion treatment. While withholding treatment may be warranted in patients with increased risk of HT, prediction of HT remains difficult. Nonlinear regression analysis can be used to estimate blood-brain barrier permeability (BBBP). The aim of this study was to identify a combination of clinical and imaging variables, including BBBP estimations, that can predict HT. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From the Dutch acute stroke study, 545 patients treated with intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator and/or intra-arterial treatment were selected, with available admission extended computed tomography (CT) perfusion and follow-up imaging. Patient admission treatment characteristics and CT imaging parameters regarding occlusion site, stroke severity, and BBBP were recorded. HT was assessed on day 3 follow-up imaging. The association between potential predictors and HT was analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. To compare the added value of BBBP, areas under the curve (AUCs) were created from 2 models, with and without BBBP. RESULTS: HT occurred in 57 patients (10%). In univariate analysis, older age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.006-1.05), higher admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS; OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.08-1.18), higher clot burden (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.16-1.41), poor collateral score (OR 3.49, 95% CI 1.85-6.58), larger Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score cerebral blood volume deficit size (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.14-1.38), and increased BBBP (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.46-3.37) were associated with HT. In multivariate analysis with age and admission NIHSS, the addition of BBBP did not improve the AUC compared to both independent predictors alone (AUC 0.77, 95% CI 0.71-0.83). CONCLUSION: BBBP predicts HT but does not improve prediction with age and admission NIHSS.

Identification of vascular patients at very high risk for recurrent cardiovascular events: validation of the current ACC/AHA very high risk criteria.

AIMS: To validate and assess performance of the current ACC/AHA very high risk criteria in patients with clinically manifest arterial disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were used from the SMART study (n = 7216) and REACH Registry (n = 48 322), two prospective cohorts of patients with manifest atherosclerotic arterial disease. Prevalence and incidence rates of recurrent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were calculated, according to the ACC/AHA VHR criteria (cardiovascular disease combined with diabetes, smoking, dyslipidaemia, and/or recent recurrent coronary events). Performance of the ACC/AHA criteria was compared with single very high risk factors in terms of C-statistics and Net Reclassification Index. All patients were at VHR according to the ESC guidelines (incidence of recurrent MACE in SMART was 2.4/100PY, with 95% CI 2.3-2.5/100PY and in REACH 5.1/100PY with 95% CI 5.0-5.3/100PY). In SMART 57% of the patients were at VHR according to the ACC/AHA criteria (incidence of recurrent MACE 2.7/100PY, 95% CI 2.5-2.9/100PY) and in REACH this was 64% (5.9/100PY, 95% CI 5.7-6.1/100PY). The C-statistic for the ACC/AHA VHR criteria was 0.53 in REACH and 0.54 in SMART. Very high risk factors with comparable or slightly better performance were eGFR < 45, polyvascular disease and age >70 years. Around two third of the patients meeting the ACC/AHA VHR criteria had a predicted 10-year risk of recurrent MACE <30%. CONCLUSION: The ACC/AHA VHR criteria have limited discriminative power. Identifying patients with clinically manifest arterial disease at VHR for recurrent vascular events using eGFR <45, polyvascular disease, or age >70 years performs as well as the ACC/AHA VHR criteria.

Effect of adding bezafibrate to standard lipid-lowering therapy on post-fat load lipid levels in patients with familial dysbetalipoproteinemia. A randomized placebo-controlled crossover trial.

Familial dysbetalipoproteinemia (FD) is a genetic disorder associated with impaired postprandial lipid clearance. The effect of adding bezafibrate to standard lipid-lowering therapy on postprandial and fasting lipid levels in patients with FD is unknown. In this randomized placebo-controlled double-blind crossover trial, 15 patients with FD received bezafibrate and placebo for 6 weeks in randomized order in addition to standard lipid-lowering therapy (statin, ezetimibe, and/or lifestyle). We assessed post-fat load lipids, expressed as incremental area under the curve (iAUC) and area under the curve (AUC), as well as fasting levels and safety, and found that adding bezafibrate did not reduce post-fat load non-HDL-cholesterol (non-HDL-C) iAUC (1.78 ± 4.49 mmol·h/l vs. 1.03 ± 2.13 mmol·h/l, P = 0.57), but did reduce post-fat load triglyceride (TG) iAUC (8.05 ± 3.32 mmol·h/l vs. 10.61 ± 5.92 mmol·h/l, P = 0.03) and apoB (0.64 ± 0.62 g·h/l vs. 0.93 ± 0.71 g·h/l, P = 0.01). Furthermore, bezafibrate significantly improved AUC and fasting levels of non-HDL-C, TG, total cholesterol, HDL-C, and apoB. Bezafibrate was associated with lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (78.4 ± 11.4 ml/min/1.73 m2 vs. 86.1 ± 5.85 ml/min/1.73 m2, P = 0.002). In conclusion, in patients with FD, the addition of bezafibrate to standard lipid-lowering therapy resulted in improved post-fat load and fasting plasma lipids. Combination therapy of statin/fibrate could be considered as standard lipid-lowering treatment in FD.

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population.

BACKGROUND: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual risk that can be achieved if patients reach guideline-recommended risk factor targets. METHODS: The SMART score (Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease) for 10-year risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death was applied to 6904 patients with vascular disease. The risk score was externally validated in 18 436 patients with various manifestations of vascular disease from the TNT (Treating to New Targets), IDEAL (Incremental Decrease in End Points Through Aggressive Lipid Lowering), SPARCL (Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels), and CAPRIE (Clopidogrel Versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischemic Events) trials. The residual risk at guideline-recommended targets was estimated by applying relative risk reductions from meta-analyses to the estimated risk for targets for systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, physical activity, and use of antithrombotic agents. RESULTS: The external performance of the SMART risk score was reasonable, apart from overestimation of risk in patients with 10-year risk >40%. In patients with various manifestations of vascular disease, median 10-year risk of a recurrent major vascular event was 17% (interquartile range, 11%-28%), varying from <10% in 18% to >30% in 22% of the patients. If risk factors were at guideline-recommended targets, the residual 10-year risk would be <10% in 47% and >30% in 9% of the patients (median, 11%; interquartile range, 7%-17%). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with vascular disease, there is very substantial variation in estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events. If all modifiable risk factors were at guideline-recommended targets, half of the patients would have a 10-year risk <10%. These data suggest that even with optimal treatment, many patients with vascular disease will remain at >20% and even >30% 10-year risk, clearly delineating an area of substantial unmet medical need.

Pioglitazone and the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. A meta-analysis of randomized-controlled trials.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Pioglitazone targets multiple pathogenic pathways involved in the development of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to assess the effects of pioglitazone treatment on the secondary prevention of CVD. METHODS: Randomized-controlled trials of pioglitazone in patients with CVD were identified through PubMed, Embase, Cochrane and CINAHL, in a search up to May 2016. Studies were included if pioglitazone was compared with any control (usual care, placebo or active comparator) and if patients were previously diagnosed with CVD. The outcomes of interest included major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, all-cause mortality and heart failure (HF). All outcomes were compared by pooled risk ratios (RR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Pooled estimates were calculated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Ten studies reported the effects of pioglitazone on any of the outcomes of interest. Pioglitazone reduced recurrent MACE (RR 0.74, 95% 0.60-0.92; I2 = 35), MI (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.64-0.93; I2 = 0%), or stroke (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.96; I2 = 0%). Pioglitazone did not reduce all-cause mortality (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.81-1.08; I2 = 0%), whereas pioglitazone treatment was associated with an increased risk of HF (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.14-1.54). CONCLUSIONS: Pioglitazone lowers the risk of recurrent MACE, stroke, or MI in patients with clinical manifest vascular disease. Pioglitazone does not lower the risk for all-cause mortality, and increases the risk for the development of HF.

Relation between brown adipose tissue and measures of obesity and metabolic dysfunction in patients with cardiovascular disease.

PURPOSE: To evaluate whether brown adipose tissue (BAT) is present in middle-aged patients with cardiovascular comorbidities and to quantify how BAT presence associates with obesity and metabolic dysfunction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Supraclavicular and subcutaneous adipose tissue fat-signal-fraction (FF) was determined with 1.5T water-fat magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in 50 patients with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral artery disease. The association between BAT presence, as measured by a higher FF difference between supraclavicular and subcutaneous adipose tissue, and obesity and metabolic dysfunction was quantified using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS: Supraclavicular adipose tissue displays a lower FF of 82.6% (interquartile range [IQR] 78.8-84.3) compared to 90.2% (IQR 87.3-91.9) in subcutaneous white adipose tissue (WAT, P < 0.0001). BAT presence was associated with less obesity and metabolic dysfunction. For example, 1 SD lower waist circumference (11.7 cm), 1 SD lower triglycerides (1.0 mmol/L), and absence of metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes were associated with 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.1; 2.0), 1.1% (95% CI 0.1; 2.0), 2.1% (95% CI 0.1; 4.1), and 4.1% (95% CI 0.1; 7.1) higher FF difference between supraclavicular adipose tissue and subcutaneous WAT, respectively. CONCLUSION: Supraclavicular adipose tissue has BAT characteristics in adult patients with clinical manifest cardiovascular disease and BAT presence is associated with less obesity and a more favorable metabolic profile. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. MAGN. RESON. IMAGING 2017;46:497-504.

Effect modification in the association between glycated haemoglobin and cardiovascular disease and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes.

AIM: To identify patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who may benefit from lower or higher glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) targets, based on readily available patient characteristics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients with T2D were included in the present study from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort. Several patient characteristics were evaluated for effect modification in the relationship between HbA1c and cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, using multiplicative interaction analyses and stratified Cox proportional hazard analyses. Combinations of patient characteristics, as used in existing treatment algorithms, were similarly evaluated. RESULTS: Of 1753 patients, 323 experienced a vascular event during a median of 6.6 years of follow-up and 375 patients died. For the association between HbA1c and cardiovascular events, no effect modifiers were found. Body mass index (BMI) and weight showed significant interaction for the association between HbA1c and mortality ( P = .04). Analyses, stratified for 25 kg/m2 or 30 or 35 kg/m2 , showed quite dissimilar hazard ratios without reaching statistical significance. Combinations of patient characteristics used in existing treatment algorithms, did not influence the relationship between HbA1c and cardiovascular disease or mortality ( P = .46 to P = .92). CONCLUSIONS: Using easily obtainable patient characteristics, whether alone or in combinations used in existing treatment algorithms, it was not possible, except for BMI or weight, considered continuously, to identify patients with T2D who had a differential association between HbA1c and cardiovascular events or all-cause mortality in our cohort.

Do Lacunar Infarcts Have Different Aetiologies? Risk Factor Profiles of Lacunar Infarcts in Deep White Matter and Basal Ganglia: The Second Manifestations of ARTerial Disease-Magnetic Resonance Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that lacunar infarcts have different etiologies, possibly related to their anatomical location and vascular territory. We investigated the risk factor profiles of patients with new lacunar infarcts in the basal ganglia and deep white matter. METHODS: Within the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease-Magnetic Resonance study, a prospective cohort on brain changes on MRI in patients with symptomatic atherosclerotic disease, 679 patients (57 ± 9 years) had vascular screening and MRI at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 3.9 years. We investigated the association between vascular risk factors at baseline and appearance of new lacunar infarcts in the basal ganglia and deep white matter at follow-up. RESULTS: New lacunar infarcts appeared in 44 patients in the basal ganglia and in 37 patients in the deep white matter. In multivariable analysis, older age, history of cerebrovascular disease, and baseline white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume were associated with increased risk of new lacunar infarcts in both locations. Hyperhomocysteinemia was associated with increased risk of lacunar infarcts in the basal ganglia (relative risk [RR] 2.0; 95% CI 1.0-4.2), whereas carotid stenosis >70% (RR 2.5; 95% CI 1.2-5.0), smoking (per 10 pack-year: RR 1.1; 95% CI 1.0-1.3), hypertension (RR 3.4; 95% CI 1.2-9.7), and progression of WMH volume (RR 2.4; 95% CI 1.1-5.2) were associated with increased risk of lacunar infarcts in the deep white matter. CONCLUSIONS: The different risk factor profiles for new lacunar infarcts in basal ganglia and deep white matter indicate different etiologies. The independent association between progression of WMH and new deep white matter lacunar infarcts suggest a common etiology for these radiological abnormalities.

Association of High Ankle Brachial Index With Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality in a High-Risk Population.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this present study is to determine whether high ankle brachial index (ABI) as compared with ABIs within reference limits is associated with an increased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality in a high-risk population and whether this association is the same for patients with and without diabetes mellitus or prevalent CVD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Seven thousand five hundred and thirty-eight patients with ABI>0.9 and either prevalent CVD or a high risk for CVD were selected from the Second Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART) study. Three hundred and thirty-six participants (4.5%) had high ABI (≥1.4 or incompressible). Higher age, male sex, higher body mass index, and diabetes mellitus were associated with higher prevalences of high ABI; smoking and higher non-high-density lipoprotein levels were associated with lower prevalences of high ABI. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted assessing the association of high ABI (as compared with ABI 0.9-1.4) with the risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiovascular death, the combined outcome of these 3, and total mortality (median follow-up 6.9 years). After multivariable adjustment, high ABI was associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (hazard ratio 1.83 [95% confidence interval 1.22-2.76]), but not with stroke (hazard ratio 0.86 [95% confidence interval 0.44-1.69]), cardiovascular (hazard ratio 1.14 [95% confidence interval 0.70-1.84]), or all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.95 [95% confidence interval 0.67-1.34]). Associations of high ABI with CVD outcomes tended to be stronger in patients with diabetes mellitus but without statistically significant interactions. CONCLUSIONS: In a high-risk population, the presence of an ABI≥1.4 was associated with an increased risk for myocardial infarction, but not with stroke, all-cause, or vascular mortality.

Estimation of individual beneficial and adverse effects of intensive glucose control for patients with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Intensive glucose control reduces the risk of vascular complications while increasing the risk of severe hypoglycaemia at a group level. We sought to estimate individual beneficial and adverse effects of intensive glucose control in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We performed a post hoc analysis of the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron MR Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial, a randomised controlled trial evaluating standard vs intensive glucose control (HbA1c target ≤6.5% [48 mmol/mol]). In 11,140 participants, we estimated the individual 5 year absolute risk reduction (ARR) for the composite outcome of major micro- and macrovascular events and absolute risk increase (ARI) for severe hypoglycaemia for intensive vs standard glucose control. Predictions were based on competing risks models including clinical characteristics and randomised treatment. RESULTS: Based on these models, 76% of patients had a substantial estimated 5 year ARR for major vascular events (>1%, 5 year number-needed-to-benefit [NNTB5] <100) and 1% had a small ARR (<0.5%, NNTB5 >200). Similarly, 36% of patients had a substantial estimated ARI for severe hypoglycaemia (5 year number-needed-to-harm [NNTH5] <100) and 29% had a small ARI (NNTH5 >200). When assigning similar or half the weight to severe hypoglycaemia compared with a major vascular event, net benefit was positive in 85% or 99% of patients, respectively. Limiting intensive treatment to the 85% patient subgroup had no significant effect on the overall incidence of major vascular events and severe hypoglycaemia compared with treating all patients. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Taking account of the effects of intensive glucose control on major micro- and macrovascular events and severe hypoglycaemia for individual patients, the estimated net benefit was positive in the majority of the participants in the ADVANCE trial. The estimated individual effects can inform treatment decisions once individual weights assigned to positive and adverse effects have been specified. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00145925.

Effect of repetitive intra-arterial infusion of bone marrow mononuclear cells in patients with no-option limb ischemia: the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Rejuvenating Endothelial Progenitor Cells via Transcutaneous Intra-arterial Supplementation (JUVENTAS) trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with severe limb ischemia may not be eligible for conventional therapeutic interventions. Pioneering clinical trials suggest that bone marrow-derived cell therapy enhances neovascularization, improves tissue perfusion, and prevents amputation. The objective of this trial was to determine whether repetitive intra-arterial infusion of bone marrow mononuclear cells (BMMNCs) in patients with severe, nonrevascularizable limb ischemia can prevent major amputation. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Rejuvenating Endothelial Progenitor Cells via Transcutaneous Intra-arterial Supplementation (JUVENTAS) trial is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial in 160 patients with severe, nonrevascularizable limb ischemia. Patients were randomly assigned to repetitive (3 times; 3-week interval) intra-arterial infusion of BMMNC or placebo. No significant differences were observed for the primary outcome, ie, major amputation at 6 months, with major amputation rates of 19% in the BMMNC versus 13% in the placebo group (relative risk, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-3.42). The safety outcome (all-cause mortality, occurrence of malignancy, or hospitalization due to infection) was not significantly different between the groups (relative risk, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-3.38), neither was all-cause mortality at 6 months with 5% versus 6% (relative risk, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.22-2.80). Secondary outcomes quality of life, rest pain, ankle-brachial index, and transcutaneous oxygen pressure improved during follow-up, but there were no significant differences between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Repetitive intra-arterial infusion of autologous BMMNCs into the common femoral artery did not reduce major amputation rates in patients with severe, nonrevascularizable limb ischemia in comparison with placebo. The general improvement in secondary outcomes during follow-up in both the BMMNC and the placebo group, as well, underlines the essential role for placebo-controlled design of future trials. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00371371.